The CSD Prime Computer Model Preseason Rankings, From Alabama To UTEP

A good general rule to go by when projecting a game between two teams is to add three points to the home team’s rating and then take the difference between the two. The CSD Prime computer model starts the year very conservative in terms of projected spreads but gets more aggressive as more data comes in.

Biggest Movers (Positive)

1. Tennessee (+45)
2. Florida State (+38)
3. Arkansas (+32)
4. Boise State (+21)
5. San Diego State (+21)
6. South Florida (+21)
7. Virginia Tech (+20)
8. Duke (+20)
9. Louisville (+19)
10. Troy (+17)

Biggest Movers (Negative)

1. Kansas (-36)
2. Fresno State (-27)
3. Ohio (-26)
4. Middle Tennessee (-26)
5. West Virginia (-25)
6. Wyoming (-24)
7. Buffalo (-24)
8. Temple (-22)
9. Eastern Michigan (-21)
10. UAB (-20)

Preseason Rank	Team	Conf	Rating	2018-19 Rank	Change
1	Alabama	SEC	32.27	2	1
2	Georgia	SEC	25.94	3	1
3	Clemson	ACC	24.74	1	-2
4	Louisiana State	SEC	19.01	8	4
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	18.14	4	-1
6	Oklahoma	Big 12	17.33	10	4
7	Michigan	Big Ten	15.42	5	-2
8	Florida	SEC	13.66	16	8
9	Penn State	Big Ten	12.75	9	0
10	Notre Dame	Ind	12.69	11	1
11	Texas A&M	SEC	12.51	13	2
12	Auburn	SEC	12.21	22	10
13	Mississippi State	SEC	11.25	7	-6
14	Texas	Big 12	10.08	18	4
15	Washington	Pac-12	9.55	6	-9
16	Missouri	SEC	8.3	12	-4
17	Oregon	Pac-12	8.25	26	9
18	Miami (FL)	ACC	8.02	14	-4
19	Iowa	Big Ten	8.01	15	-4
20	Michigan State	Big Ten	7.18	33	13
21	South Carolina	SEC	7.09	27	6
22	Central Florida	AAC	6.72	23	1
23	Southern California	Pac-12	6.6	29	6
24	Stanford	Pac-12	6.39	20	-4
25	Texas Christian	Big 12	6.25	19	-6
26	Oklahoma State	Big 12	6.12	40	14
27	Wisconsin	Big Ten	5.76	25	-2
28	Utah	Pac-12	5.3	21	-7
29	Nebraska	Big Ten	5.16	34	5
30	Memphis	AAC	4.95	32	2
31	Iowa State	Big 12	4.72	30	-1
32	Boise State	MWC	4.7	53	21
33	Arizona State	Pac-12	4.4	28	-5
34	Florida State	ACC	4.23	72	38
35	North Carolina State	ACC	4.15	41	6
36	Kentucky	SEC	4.11	49	13
37	Virginia Tech	ACC	4.11	57	20
38	Minnesota	Big Ten	4.1	43	5
39	Tennessee	SEC	4.09	84	45
40	Northwestern	Big Ten	3.27	51	11
41	Washington State	Pac-12	3.17	31	-10
42	West Virginia	Big 12	3.14	17	-25
43	Purdue	Big Ten	3.14	52	9
44	Cincinnati	AAC	3.13	47	3
45	Virginia	ACC	3.06	35	-10
46	Syracuse	ACC	3	42	-4
47	Arizona	Pac-12	2.93	39	-8
48	Mississippi	SEC	2.85	50	2
49	UCLA	Pac-12	2.75	55	6
50	Baylor	Big 12	2.65	56	6
51	Fresno State	MWC	2.61	24	-27
52	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	2.05	59	7
53	Pittsburgh	ACC	1.9	38	-15
54	Kansas State	Big 12	1.55	37	-17
55	Wake Forest	ACC	1.46	36	-19
56	California	Pac-12	1.45	58	2
57	Vanderbilt	SEC	1.25	45	-12
58	Brigham Young	Ind	1.1	44	-14
59	Maryland	Big Ten	0.93	64	5
60	Texas Tech	Big 12	0.88	62	2
61	Indiana	Big Ten	0.78	75	14
62	North Carolina	ACC	0.31	67	5
63	Colorado	Pac-12	0.27	63	0
64	Boston College	ACC	0.2	65	1
65	Houston	AAC	0.12	73	8
66	San Diego State	MWC	-0.25	87	21
67	Marshall	CUSA	-0.55	61	-6
68	Arkansas	SEC	-0.56	100	32
69	Georgia Tech	ACC	-0.62	54	-15
70	Temple	AAC	-0.64	48	-22
71	Duke	ACC	-0.65	91	20
72	Ohio	MAC	-0.66	46	-26
73	Utah State	MWC	-0.91	70	-3
74	Toledo	MAC	-0.92	86	12
75	South Florida	AAC	-1.2	96	21
76	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-1.29	69	-7
77	Troy	Sun Belt	-1.33	94	17
78	Army	Ind	-1.46	90	12
79	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-1.55	77	-2
80	North Texas	CUSA	-1.77	78	-2
81	Illinois	Big Ten	-1.94	74	-7
82	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-2.2	92	10
83	Florida International	CUSA	-2.68	83	0
84	Tulane	AAC	-2.73	89	5
85	Northern Illinois	MAC	-2.97	79	-6
86	Western Michigan	MAC	-3.1	95	9
87	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-3.1	93	6
88	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-3.11	82	-6
89	Southern Methodist	AAC	-3.17	99	10
90	Wyoming	MWC	-3.26	66	-24
91	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-3.61	71	-20
92	Louisville	ACC	-3.62	111	19
93	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-3.75	97	4
94	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-3.84	68	-26
95	Nevada	MWC	-4.03	81	-14
96	Kansas	Big 12	-4.33	60	-36
97	Air Force	MWC	-4.89	88	-9
98	Tulsa	AAC	-5.09	102	4
99	Miami (OH)	MAC	-5.14	80	-19
100	Buffalo	MAC	-5.24	76	-24
101	Oregon State	Pac-12	-5.43	109	8
102	Hawaii	MWC	-5.48	104	2
103	Colorado State	MWC	-5.84	98	-5
104	Rutgers	Big Ten	-6.57	110	6
105	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-7.06	113	8
106	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-7.49	85	-21
107	East Carolina	AAC	-7.57	103	-4
108	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-8.34	112	4
109	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-9.78	101	-8
110	Navy	AAC	-10.1	106	-4
111	Kent State	MAC	-10.28	117	6
112	Texas State	Sun Belt	-10.41	107	-5
113	Ball State	MAC	-11.13	115	2
114	Charlotte	CUSA	-11.52	105	-9
115	Old Dominion	CUSA	-12.13	114	-1
116	San Jose State	MWC	-12.52	124	8
117	New Mexico	MWC	-12.7	121	4
118	Bowling Green State	MAC	-12.87	108	-10
119	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-12.93	127	8
120	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-13.08	125	5
121	Liberty	Ind	-13.83	120	-1
122	Central Michigan	MAC	-13.92	128	6
123	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-14.03	119	-4
124	Massachusetts	Ind	-15.11	116	-8
125	New Mexico State	Ind	-15.33	118	-7
126	Akron	MAC	-15.66	122	-4
127	Rice	CUSA	-15.95	123	-4
128	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	-16.95	129	1
129	Connecticut	AAC	-17.98	130	1
130	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-18.06	126	-4