A good general rule to go by when projecting a game between two teams is to add three points to the home team’s rating and then take the difference between the two. The CSD Prime computer model starts the year very conservative in terms of projected spreads but gets more aggressive as more data comes in.
Biggest Movers (Positive)
- Tennessee (+45)
- Florida State (+38)
- Arkansas (+32)
- Boise State (+21)
- San Diego State (+21)
- South Florida (+21)
- Virginia Tech (+20)
- Duke (+20)
- Louisville (+19)
- Troy (+17)
Biggest Movers (Negative)
- Kansas (-36)
- Fresno State (-27)
- Ohio (-26)
- Middle Tennessee (-26)
- West Virginia (-25)
- Wyoming (-24)
- Buffalo (-24)
- Temple (-22)
- Eastern Michigan (-21)
- UAB (-20)
Preseason Rank | Team | Conf | Rating | 2018-19 Rank | Change |
1 | Alabama | SEC | 32.27 | 2 | 1 |
2 | Georgia | SEC | 25.94 | 3 | 1 |
3 | Clemson | ACC | 24.74 | 1 | -2 |
4 | Louisiana State | SEC | 19.01 | 8 | 4 |
5 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 18.14 | 4 | -1 |
6 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 17.33 | 10 | 4 |
7 | Michigan | Big Ten | 15.42 | 5 | -2 |
8 | Florida | SEC | 13.66 | 16 | 8 |
9 | Penn State | Big Ten | 12.75 | 9 | 0 |
10 | Notre Dame | Ind | 12.69 | 11 | 1 |
11 | Texas A&M | SEC | 12.51 | 13 | 2 |
12 | Auburn | SEC | 12.21 | 22 | 10 |
13 | Mississippi State | SEC | 11.25 | 7 | -6 |
14 | Texas | Big 12 | 10.08 | 18 | 4 |
15 | Washington | Pac-12 | 9.55 | 6 | -9 |
16 | Missouri | SEC | 8.3 | 12 | -4 |
17 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 8.25 | 26 | 9 |
18 | Miami (FL) | ACC | 8.02 | 14 | -4 |
19 | Iowa | Big Ten | 8.01 | 15 | -4 |
20 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 7.18 | 33 | 13 |
21 | South Carolina | SEC | 7.09 | 27 | 6 |
22 | Central Florida | AAC | 6.72 | 23 | 1 |
23 | Southern California | Pac-12 | 6.6 | 29 | 6 |
24 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 6.39 | 20 | -4 |
25 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 6.25 | 19 | -6 |
26 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 6.12 | 40 | 14 |
27 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 5.76 | 25 | -2 |
28 | Utah | Pac-12 | 5.3 | 21 | -7 |
29 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 5.16 | 34 | 5 |
30 | Memphis | AAC | 4.95 | 32 | 2 |
31 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 4.72 | 30 | -1 |
32 | Boise State | MWC | 4.7 | 53 | 21 |
33 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 4.4 | 28 | -5 |
34 | Florida State | ACC | 4.23 | 72 | 38 |
35 | North Carolina State | ACC | 4.15 | 41 | 6 |
36 | Kentucky | SEC | 4.11 | 49 | 13 |
37 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 4.11 | 57 | 20 |
38 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 4.1 | 43 | 5 |
39 | Tennessee | SEC | 4.09 | 84 | 45 |
40 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 3.27 | 51 | 11 |
41 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 3.17 | 31 | -10 |
42 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 3.14 | 17 | -25 |
43 | Purdue | Big Ten | 3.14 | 52 | 9 |
44 | Cincinnati | AAC | 3.13 | 47 | 3 |
45 | Virginia | ACC | 3.06 | 35 | -10 |
46 | Syracuse | ACC | 3 | 42 | -4 |
47 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 2.93 | 39 | -8 |
48 | Mississippi | SEC | 2.85 | 50 | 2 |
49 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 2.75 | 55 | 6 |
50 | Baylor | Big 12 | 2.65 | 56 | 6 |
51 | Fresno State | MWC | 2.61 | 24 | -27 |
52 | Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 2.05 | 59 | 7 |
53 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 1.9 | 38 | -15 |
54 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 1.55 | 37 | -17 |
55 | Wake Forest | ACC | 1.46 | 36 | -19 |
56 | California | Pac-12 | 1.45 | 58 | 2 |
57 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 1.25 | 45 | -12 |
58 | Brigham Young | Ind | 1.1 | 44 | -14 |
59 | Maryland | Big Ten | 0.93 | 64 | 5 |
60 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 0.88 | 62 | 2 |
61 | Indiana | Big Ten | 0.78 | 75 | 14 |
62 | North Carolina | ACC | 0.31 | 67 | 5 |
63 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 0.27 | 63 | 0 |
64 | Boston College | ACC | 0.2 | 65 | 1 |
65 | Houston | AAC | 0.12 | 73 | 8 |
66 | San Diego State | MWC | -0.25 | 87 | 21 |
67 | Marshall | CUSA | -0.55 | 61 | -6 |
68 | Arkansas | SEC | -0.56 | 100 | 32 |
69 | Georgia Tech | ACC | -0.62 | 54 | -15 |
70 | Temple | AAC | -0.64 | 48 | -22 |
71 | Duke | ACC | -0.65 | 91 | 20 |
72 | Ohio | MAC | -0.66 | 46 | -26 |
73 | Utah State | MWC | -0.91 | 70 | -3 |
74 | Toledo | MAC | -0.92 | 86 | 12 |
75 | South Florida | AAC | -1.2 | 96 | 21 |
76 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | -1.29 | 69 | -7 |
77 | Troy | Sun Belt | -1.33 | 94 | 17 |
78 | Army | Ind | -1.46 | 90 | 12 |
79 | Florida Atlantic | CUSA | -1.55 | 77 | -2 |
80 | North Texas | CUSA | -1.77 | 78 | -2 |
81 | Illinois | Big Ten | -1.94 | 74 | -7 |
82 | Southern Mississippi | CUSA | -2.2 | 92 | 10 |
83 | Florida International | CUSA | -2.68 | 83 | 0 |
84 | Tulane | AAC | -2.73 | 89 | 5 |
85 | Northern Illinois | MAC | -2.97 | 79 | -6 |
86 | Western Michigan | MAC | -3.1 | 95 | 9 |
87 | Louisiana Tech | CUSA | -3.1 | 93 | 6 |
88 | Louisiana | Sun Belt | -3.11 | 82 | -6 |
89 | Southern Methodist | AAC | -3.17 | 99 | 10 |
90 | Wyoming | MWC | -3.26 | 66 | -24 |
91 | Alabama-Birmingham | CUSA | -3.61 | 71 | -20 |
92 | Louisville | ACC | -3.62 | 111 | 19 |
93 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | -3.75 | 97 | 4 |
94 | Middle Tennessee State | CUSA | -3.84 | 68 | -26 |
95 | Nevada | MWC | -4.03 | 81 | -14 |
96 | Kansas | Big 12 | -4.33 | 60 | -36 |
97 | Air Force | MWC | -4.89 | 88 | -9 |
98 | Tulsa | AAC | -5.09 | 102 | 4 |
99 | Miami (OH) | MAC | -5.14 | 80 | -19 |
100 | Buffalo | MAC | -5.24 | 76 | -24 |
101 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | -5.43 | 109 | 8 |
102 | Hawaii | MWC | -5.48 | 104 | 2 |
103 | Colorado State | MWC | -5.84 | 98 | -5 |
104 | Rutgers | Big Ten | -6.57 | 110 | 6 |
105 | Western Kentucky | CUSA | -7.06 | 113 | 8 |
106 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | -7.49 | 85 | -21 |
107 | East Carolina | AAC | -7.57 | 103 | -4 |
108 | Nevada-Las Vegas | MWC | -8.34 | 112 | 4 |
109 | Louisiana-Monroe | Sun Belt | -9.78 | 101 | -8 |
110 | Navy | AAC | -10.1 | 106 | -4 |
111 | Kent State | MAC | -10.28 | 117 | 6 |
112 | Texas State | Sun Belt | -10.41 | 107 | -5 |
113 | Ball State | MAC | -11.13 | 115 | 2 |
114 | Charlotte | CUSA | -11.52 | 105 | -9 |
115 | Old Dominion | CUSA | -12.13 | 114 | -1 |
116 | San Jose State | MWC | -12.52 | 124 | 8 |
117 | New Mexico | MWC | -12.7 | 121 | 4 |
118 | Bowling Green State | MAC | -12.87 | 108 | -10 |
119 | Texas-San Antonio | CUSA | -12.93 | 127 | 8 |
120 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | -13.08 | 125 | 5 |
121 | Liberty | Ind | -13.83 | 120 | -1 |
122 | Central Michigan | MAC | -13.92 | 128 | 6 |
123 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | -14.03 | 119 | -4 |
124 | Massachusetts | Ind | -15.11 | 116 | -8 |
125 | New Mexico State | Ind | -15.33 | 118 | -7 |
126 | Akron | MAC | -15.66 | 122 | -4 |
127 | Rice | CUSA | -15.95 | 123 | -4 |
128 | Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | -16.95 | 129 | 1 |
129 | Connecticut | AAC | -17.98 | 130 | 1 |
130 | Texas-El Paso | CUSA | -18.06 | 126 | -4 |