The Bracket

CPU Champion Probabilities

These are using a tweaked version of my computer metrics system, weighted heavily towards recent results.

*Due to rounding, percentages may not add up to 100*

(1) Cincinnati – 47.4%
(2) Wichita State – 26.9%
(3) Houston – 15.7%
(4) Tulsa – 4.1%
(9) SMU – 2.5%
(6) UCF – 1.3%
(7) Temple – 1.2%
(8) Connecticut – 0.4%
(5) Memphis – 0.4%
(11) East Carolina – <0.1%
(10) Tulane – <0.1%
(12) South Florida – <0.1%

My Picks

The Early Round Upset

I’m going to guess that SMU will be favored over Connecticut, but it technically would be an upset seeding wise. The only time these two teams played, UConn won, but that game was at Connecticut and was decided by single digits. I expect SMU to get their revenge on Thursday, and advance to the American Conference quarterfinals on Friday. SMU has played wildly inconsistently, as they’ve beaten teams like Arizona and Wichita State, but also own losses to Tulane, Memphis, and USF. Assuming we get the best of SMU though, this should be a day two team.

The Darkhorse

I’m going to say that my darkhorse for the American is Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 19-11, but haven’t gotten much national buzz due to six KenPom sub-80 losses. Maybe they should be getting more attention though, as Tulsa has won eight of their past nine, the only loss coming on the road by single digits to top seed Cincinnati. To win the tournament and earn a berth to the big dance though, they’ll have to avenge that loss from February 25th.

Semifinalists, Finalists, and Champion

I’ve already mentioned Tulsa in my darkhorse portion of the column, and my other three semifinalists are the obvious ones: Houston, Cincinnati, and Wichita State. Those three teams all are locked into NCAA Tournament berths, and are ranked in my top 25, but for each of them, a conference tournament crown would be a big deal, as none of the three have won the conference tournament since the inception of the American Athletic Conference. None of the three should have any trouble making it to the semis, as after the top three teams (all in the top 25) there is a big drop off before the next placed team in KenPom at #87 in the SMU Mustangs.

Assuming they get there, this would lead to a Wichita State vs Houston matchup in the semifinals. The two teams split the regular season series, both winning by double digits at home. When it comes time to pick these tournaments, I always like to look to see who is hot, and Wichita State has won seven of their final eight, with the only loss being by just one point against top-seeded Cincinnati. Because of that, I’ll take Wichita State to go to the finals and set up a third matchup with Cincinnati, who will have breezed by a Tulsa team that they beat just over ten days ago.

So in the finals, we will get to see Wichita State vs Cincinnati III. Both teams won by less than five points at the other teams home court, but now it will be played at a neutral site. I struggled with my pick for this game for a long time, but at the end of the day, Gary Clark and Jacob Evans are probably the two best players on the floor, and Cincinnati’s defense is the best unit in the conference. Last Sunday Cincy went to Wichita and won, this Sunday, they’ll do it again.

The Bracket

CPU Champion Probabilities

These are using a tweaked version of my computer metrics system, weighted heavily towards recent results.

*Due to rounding, percentages may not add up to 100*

(2) St. Bonaventure – 28.5%
(3) Davidson – 25%
(1) Rhode Island – 20.2%
(4) St. Joseph’s – 15%
(8) VCU – 2.5%
(12) La Salle – 2%
(9) Dayton – 1.9%
(7) Richmond – 1.6%
(6) Saint Louis – 1.5%
(11) George Washington – 0.5%
(5) George Mason- 0.4%
(13) Massachusetts – 0.4%
(10) Duquesne – 0.1%
(14) Fordham – <0.1%

Rhode Island, who in my normal computer metrics ranks tops in the A10, comes in third in my tweaked version. The version I use for conference tournaments uses recent results much more heavily, and Rhody lost three of their final five games, including each of their final two, most prominently a 30 point loss to Saint Joseph’s that caused them to drop 20 spots in KenPom. Those two wins were against the #12 and #9 seeds in this tournament, and in the game against La Salle, the Rams needed OT to get the win.

My Picks

The Early Round Upset

This might be the biggest seeding gap for any of my early round upsets, but I’m confident in it. I’ve got twelfth-seeded La Salle over the five seed. George Mason. La Salle, despite being a much lower seed, ranks over 60 spots higher than George Mason on KenPom. The only time these two teams played, which was earlier this month, La Salle beat the Patriots, and I expect history to repeat itself, as I’ve got the Explorers advancing to the quarterfinals.

The Darkhorse

There isn’t a darkhorse for the Atlantic 10, at least not in the traditional sense. No team outside of the top four seeds has a greater than two and a half percent chance to win the title via my computer simulations, so I’ll take a team from within those top four that hasn’t gotten a lot of national attention but should, Davidson. The Wildcats have beaten Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, and Saint Joseph’s already this year, and if they win the conference title, they will pop the bubble of some team hoping to get into the NCAA Tournament, because Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure will take up at-large spots.

Semifinalist, Finalist, and Champion

The top four seeds seem locked into those four semifinal slots to me, so I’ll go into my picks for the two finalists. On the top half of the bracket, I expect Rhode Island to get their revenge on Saint Joseph’s for their senior night drubbing on Tuesday. That game certainly seemed to be an anomaly, as the Rams looked to be swept up in the emotion of their senior night on the day of that 30 point loss. In the bottom half, we’ll get the oh so interesting matchup of Davidson and St. Bonaventure. The two split the season series, with St. Bonaventure winning the more recent matchup in triple overtime last week. That game was one of the best I’ve seen all year, and if we get anything close to that, this semifinal will be epic. At the end of the day, I’m going to pick the team with the best player on the court, and that is St. Bonaventure and Jaylen Adams.

Assuming we get a Rhode Island-St. Bonaventure final, bubble teams around the country will breath a sigh of relief, but viewers around the country should still tune in. The two teams split the regular season series, but in the third and final matchup, I’m going to take St. Bonaventure to pull an upset. As I said in my champion probabilities section, Rhode Island comes into March coming off of a down stretch. St. Bonaventure is much the opposite. The Bonnies have won 12 in a row, including games against all three of the other semifinalists. Give me Jaylen Adams to lead SB to a trophy.

The Bracket

CPU Champion Probabilities

These are using a tweaked version of my computer metrics system, weighted heavily towards recent results.

*Due to rounding, percentages may not add up to 100*

(1) Nevada – 30.6%
(2) Boise State – 23.9%
(5) San Diego State – 23.1%
(3) New Mexico – 7.6%
(4) Fresno State – 6.5%
(6) Wyoming – 4.7%
(7) Utah State – 1.6%
(8) UNLV – 1.6%
(10) Colorado State – 0.2%
(9) Air Force – 0.1%
(11) San Jose State – <0.1%

Nevada is obviously 1st in the conference champion probabilities, but San Diego State is right on Boise State’s heels for the #2 spot. Looking down the list, there are no real surprises other than Brian Dutcher’s team, which comes into this tournament on a big winning streak, but more on that in my “early round upset” and “darkhorse” categories.

My Picks

Early Round Upset

My early round upset for the Mountain West Tournament is San Diego State over Fresno State in the 4 vs 5 game. The Bulldogs swept San Diego State in the regular season, but both games were over a month ago, and Fresno State has lost two of their final three heading into this tournament, both wins were against sub-100 teams, and the only win was against Air Force, ranked #239 in KenPom.

The Darkhorse

My darkhorse for the Mountain West Tournament is San Diego State. The Aztecs are coming into this tournament as winners of six straight, including victories over the two best teams in the conference, Boise State, and Nevada. As I mentioned in my early round upset portion, getting past a Fresno State team that swept them in the regular season will be tough, but if they can do that, they will be faced with a matchup against a Nevada team that they beat on Saturday.

Semifinalists, Finalists, and Champion

Check out my thoughts on San Diego State in my darkhorse section, but my other semifinalists are New Mexico, Boise State, and Nevada. As for New Mexico, the Lobos finished in the KenPom top 50 every year from 2008-2014, but the past few years, they’ve dropped off. This year will be a first step to getting back there, and while I don’t think they’ll get by Boise State in the semifinals, they do come into the tournament on a five-game winning streak, including one over likely quarterfinal opponent Wyoming on the road.

I’ve got Nevada avenging their Saturday loss to San Diego State in the semifinals. I love the Aztecs, but that game definitely felt fluky, because Nevada led for most of the first half, and when the two played earlier this year, Nevada won by 25.

Now, assuming we get there, Nevada vs Boise State in the finals should be a lot of fun. When the two teams played in the regular season, Nevada won both times, but both games were awesome to watch. The trend should continue, and these finals should be fun too, but I’ve got another trend continuing, as I’ll pick Nevada to win in a close one. Any bubble teams better cheer for Nevada in this one, as Boise State winning would mean that Nevada would use up an at-large bid, kicking some poor bubble team out of the tournament.

The Bracket

CPU Champion Probabilities

These are using a tweaked version of my computer metrics system, weighted heavily towards recent results.

*Due to rounding, percentages may not add up to 100*

(1) Arizona – 26.1%
(4) UCLA – 19.8%
(2) USC – 16.5%
(6) Oregon – 11.6%
(3) Utah – 9.8%
(9) Arizona State – 6.9%
(5) Stanford – 3.9%
(10) Oregon State – 3.1%
(7) Washington – 1.6%
(8) Colorado – 0.6%
(11) Washington State – 0.1%
(12) California – <0.1%

Honestly, the biggest surprise to me in this whole tournament is that Arizona wasn’t a bigger favorite. The Wildcats are of course dealing with the FBI scandal, but the computer doesn’t know that, and the Wildcats are already under 30% in terms of win probability. As a whole, the Pac-12 might be the most misseeded conference in the country, as the 10th-seeded Oregon State Beavers are only just behind the number five seed in champion probability.

My Picks

Early Round Upset

My early round upset for the Pac-12 tournament is Oregon State over Washington. I’ve been lower on Washington than most throughout the year, but they’ve only confirmed my suspicions as of late. They haven’t beaten a KenPom top-90 team since February 3rd, and since then, they’ve lost five games, all of which to sub-60 teams. Oregon State on the other hand, beat a KenPom top-40 team just over a week ago, and have lost just once to a sub-60 squad since February 3rd.

The Darkhorse

It might seem odd to call Oregon, who went to the Final Four last year, a darkhorse, but this Ducks team has had a meh season, and would probably need to win this tournament to earn their way back into the big dance. These guys have been sneaky good lately, winning three of their final four games of the regular season, against Arizona, Arizona State, and Washington. Assuming they get by Washington State on Wednesday, they’ll face a Utah team they only played once this year, back in December. As good as the Utes have been (winners of six of their final seven) they only faced a KenPom top-90 team twice in that stretch, both at home, going 1-1 in those games.

Semifinalists, Finalists, and Champion

I talked about Oregon in my darkhorse category, and it is time to get into my other three semifinalists, starting with USC. The Trojans are the third highest-rated KenPom team in the conference, only behind Arizona and Arizona State. Their path to the semis would go through Washington or Oregon State, both sub-90 teams on KenPom, so the Trojans shouldn’t have any trouble. After that, I have them taking on my darkhorse team, Oregon, who they swept in the regular season.

Arizona is the top team in the conference, but to win the title, they’ll have to beat the #2, #3, and #4 teams in the conference in Arizona State, USC, and UCLA. Not exactly what I call a one seed draw, but I think this team can do it. Arizona is the most talented team in this conference, and they swept Arizona State in the regular season, and beat USC by double digits the only time they played, but UCLA is a different story. In fact, that first game on Friday should be the biggest game of the tournament, as when the two teams played in early February, UCLA went on the road and beat the Wildcats. Arizona will have the best two players in the conference, and probably the best coach, so I’ll pick them to win the tournament, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we are looking at a UCLA-USC final, as both teams want to not leave any doubt in the eyes of the committee. No matter what happens, this might be top to bottom the most unpredictable of the seven power conference tournaments, at least in my view.

The Bracket

CPU Champion Probabilities

These are using a tweaked version of my computer metrics system, weighted heavily towards recent results.

*Due to rounding, percentages may not add up to 100*

(3) Florida – 22.5%
(2) Tennessee – 22.24%
(4) Kentucky – 17.2%
(1) Auburn – 13.7%
(8) Texas A&M – 7.1%
(5) Missouri – 5.5%
(6) Arkansas – 5.4%
(10) LSU – 1.9%
(9) Alabama – 1.5%
(7) Mississippi State – 1.1%
(12) Georgia – 0.8%
(11) South Carolina – 0.7%
(13) Vanderbilt – 0.3%
(14) Ole Miss – 0.2%

Seven teams from the SEC own a champion probability over five percent, and of those six, Texas A&M, the eight seed, stands out, as they stand just behind the top four seeds in probability. As for those top four seeds, they are separated by just nine percent, with Florida coming in first, followed by Tennessee, Kentucky, and then Auburn, the one seed who is seeing very little respect.

My Picks

The Early Round Upset

My early round upset does not come in the 8-9 or 4-5 game for once! For this one, we travel to the second half of games on Thursday, where I’ll take tenth-seeded LSU over Mississippi State. These two teams find themselves on the fringes of the bubble, and would probably need a trip to the SEC Title Game to justify conversation of inclusion, but if you asked me which team I thought had a better shot to do it, I would say LSU without hesitation. The Tigers beat Mississippi State on Saturday, and it wasn’t even close. Tremont Waters led LSU to a  78-57 win, and under a week later, I’d expect history to repeat itself.

The Darkhorse

I picked the top four seeds to make it to the semifinals, so it was a little harder finding a darkhorse for this tournament, but I’d say that Texas A&M probably has the best shot of disrupting the status quo. The Aggies will have a very tough road, needing to beat Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky/Missouri, and Florida/Tennessee in the span of four days, but this team has the talent to do that. A&M was ranked in my top five at one point this year, and while they have been wildly inconsistent, there is no team in the conference that can beat them when they play their A game. Texas A&M also comes into the tournament having won three straight, including a win over first-round opponent Alabama on Saturday.

Semifinalists, Finalists, and Champion

The SEC Tournament feels wide open. Missouri is a mystery, Texas A&M is a darkhorse, and Alabama is right now my last team in the field and a desperate team is a dangerous team. With all that said, I’m taking the top four seeds to advance to the semifinals, but there is no telling what will happen when we get there. I happen to think that Auburn is the best team in the conference (my computer disagrees), but the Tigers will have to face Alabama or Texas A&M on Friday, both teams they’ve lost to earlier this year. I think they’ll get through Friday, but for damage control sakes, I have them going out on Saturday, as I don’t want one of my finalists picks to go out on the first day. Because of that, I’ve got Kentucky advancing to the finals from the top half of the bracket. The Wildcats won four of their final five games.

I also didn’t pick the 2nd seeded Tennessee Volunteers to make the finals. The Vols have won five of their past seven, but four of those five wins were by single digits, and as I say: The bill always comes due. I would probably pick the Vols to go to the finals if they were on the other half of the bracket, but they got unlucky and drew my projected winner Florida on their half.

As for that Florida team, the Gators are on fire, ranking fourth in the country in Sagarin’s “recent” rating. As I said, the Tennessee game will be tough, as I would’ve picked UT to make the finals if they were on the other half of the bracket, but if they can get through that, they will face a Kentucky team they defeated by 13 on Saturday. With an SEC Championship on their resume, there is a chance that this Florida team could climb as high as a top four, regional protected seed, potentially setting up a rematch from last year’s tournament with Virginia in the Sweet 16.

The Bracket

CPU Champion Probabilities

These are using a tweaked version of my computer metrics system, weighted heavily towards recent results.

*Due to rounding, percentages may not add up to 100*

(2) Villanova – 41.3%
(1) Xavier – 21.6%
(4) Creighton – 13.2%
(3) Seton Hall – 8.6%
(6) Butler – 6.8%
(5) Providence – 3.5%
(7) Marquette – 2.9%
(9) St. John’s – 1.7%
(8) Georgetown – 0.3%
(10) DePaul – 0.2%

Villanova, despite not being the one seed, is a massive favorite in my computer’s simulations, winning them 41.3% of the time. Going down the list, it is largely out of order, as Marquette and DePaul are the only two teams where their seeding matches their placement in the win probability graph. Creighton is the only school outside of the top two with a win probability greater than 10 percent.

My Picks

The Early Round Upset

The early round upset for the Big East seems like it would be an easy one, as I’ve got St. John’s over Georgetown. The Johnnies made national headlines earlier this year when beating Villanova and Duke. Including those two, St. John’s has won five of their past eight, fantastic for a team that was on an 11 game losing streak, and two of those three losses were by single digits. When the Red Storm matched up with the Hoyas earlier this year, Georgetown won both times, but those games were decided by three points or went to overtime. Both of those games were also before the Johnnies’ recent uptick in luck, and while Chris Mullin’s team is coming in hot, Georgetown has lost eight of their final ten, including four in a row. Sometimes you have to go with the best player on the court, and that is Shamorie Ponds.

The Darkhorse

My darkhorse for the Big East has to be Creighton. I’ve been high on the Bluejays (and Butler too!) all year, and they have proven that they can hang with the best in the conference. Creighton beat Villanova on February 24th, and the last time they played Xavier, it was a one-point defeat that the Bluejays should have won. This team has certainly been wildly inconsistent, and half of their losses have been by double-digits, but when this team is playing at it’s peak, they can contend for a Big East title. Creighton also has the added advantage of starting the tournament with Providence, a team that should not be much for the Bluejays to handle.

Semifinalists, Finalists, and Champion

Check out my breakdown of Creighton in the darkhorse category, but it is time to get into some of my other semifinalists, starting with Seton Hall. The Pirates will have to beat Butler to make it into the semis, a Butler team they swept this year, including a win over the Bulldogs on Saturday. The Bluejays have won four of five, and are a prime bet to make it to the semis, but neither Seton Hall or Creighton has a chance of changing a title game that seems to be inevitable, Villanova against Xavier.

Xavier finished the regular season in sole possession of first place, despite being swept by ‘Nova during the regular season. Losing by a combined score of 184-144 over the course of the two meetings. Needless to say, I don’t see Xavier’s Villanova woes stopping anytime soon. In fact, since joining the Big East, Xavier has beaten Villanova just once, ever. As long as they make the championship game, both of these teams should be one seeds in the big dance. This is a topic for another article, but I would say that Xavier is primed for an upset, as they would be the weakest one seed in my memory. The Musketeer rank 15th in KenPom because while 27-4 looks good, they are statistically the luckiest team in a power conference, and the bill always comes due.

The Bracket

CPU Champion Probabilities

These are using a tweaked version of my computer metrics system, weighted heavily towards recent results.

*Due to rounding, percentages may not add up to 100*

(3) West Virginia – 21.8%
(1) Kansas – 20.3%
(2) Texas Tech – 15.1%
(5) TCU – 10.5%
(4) Kansas State – 6%
(6) Baylor – 6%
(7) Texas – 5.7%
(8) Oklahoma State – 3.7%
(9) Oklahoma – 2.8%
(10) Iowa State – 0.3%

My Computer agrees with me and places West Virginia as the team with the best shot to win the tournament. This may have something do with the fact that Kansas will have to potentially face Oklahoma State on Thursday, a team that they were swept by in the regular season. The percentages also agree with my by placing TCU well ahead of their first round opponent, Kansas State.

My Picks

The Early Round Upset

My early round upset for the Big 12 tournament comes in the 4-5 game, where I’ll take TCU over Kansas State in the battle of the two purple schools from the Big 12 Conference. Many see K-State as lucky to have landed in the four-seed spot, as the Wildcats actually rank eight in the conference in KenPom. These two played just this past Tuesday, where TCU beat K-State by seven. The two split the season series, both winning at home by single digits, but TCU’s win was much more recent, and the Horned Frogs come in having won four of their past five, while the Wildcats dropped two of their final three games in the regular season.

The Darkhorse

In a conference with just ten teams, it is tough to always find a true darkhorse, but for me, the Big 12 has two contenders: Texas and Baylor. Both were part of my final eight teams in the field, and you could see those two wanting to make sure they don’t leave any doubt when it comes to their selection to the big dance. Texas has what I would consider a must-win game against Iowa State on Wednesday, but assuming they get through that, these two would have to face the #2 and #3 seeds, where a win would lock up a berth to the big dance. These guys have the most to lose, so watch out.

Semifinalists, Finalists, and Champion

I’ve already talked about TCU, so let’s get to my other semifinalists, starting with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have had an up and down year, where at points I was sure they would earn the conference title, but in the end it was taken by the Kansas Jayhawks once again. Texas Tech is still a top ten team on KenPom, and they should get by a Texas team that they beat the last time the two teams played, but I don’t think they will get much farther than the semifinals. Keenan Evans is terrific, but the guard play is great all around the conference, and TTU has lost four of their last five, and coming into March on a losing streak is never a good sign.

Now let’s get into my finalists, Kansas and West Virginia. The two teams rank 12th and 13th on KenPom. As for the Jayhawks, it was business as usual. Everyone doubted them (including me), but in the end, they pulled out yet another Big 12 regular season championship, and they won this one outright. Their projected opponents, the West Virginia Mountaineers, also had a crazy year, and are the only team that my current #1, Virginia, has played and not beaten.

I’ve been high on the Mountaineers all year, and while they were swept in the regular season by Kansas, both of those games were within single digits, and WVU led late in both of them. Both teams come into the tournament off of a loss, and I’ll give the edge to the senior leadership of Jevon Carter to knock off the Jayhawks, clearing a way for Duke to earn that fourth #1 seed in the Big Dance.