The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Thursday, March 14th)

#8 USF vs #9 UConn (1 PM ET, ESPNU)
#5 Memphis vs #12 Tulane (3:30 PM ET, ESPNU)
#7 Tulsa vs #10 SMU (8 PM ET, ESPNU)
#6 Wichita State vs #11 East Carolina (10:30 PM ET, ESPNU)

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 15th)

#1 Houston vs TBD (12 PM ET, ESPN2)
#4 UCF vs TBD (2:30 PM ET, ESPN2)
#2 Cincinnati vs TBD (7 PM ET, ESPNU)
#3 Temple vs TBD (9:30 PM ET, ESPNU)

Semifinals (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (3 PM ET, ESPN2)
TBD vs TBD (5:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

Championship (Sunday, March 17th)

TBD vs TBD (3:15 PM ET, ESPN)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

Houston – 3 Seed
Cincinnati – 7 Seed
UCF – 8 Seed
Temple – 12 Seed (Last Four In)

The Picks

The Early Round Upset

For my early round upset special I’ll go to the first game of the first day and take UConn over South Florida. Neither of the two teams have inspired confidence as of late, UConn lost seven of their final nine and USF lost six of their final seven. The two teams split the season series, both close games, but in the more recent game UConn came out on top. While this is by no means a UConn team of old, I like this team’s height and rebounding ability along with their way of causing chaos on the defensive end due to turnovers. Huskies to the quarterfinals.

The Darkhorse

This is probably the most obvious darkhorse pick of any conference I’ve done so far, it’s Memphis. The AAC Tournament is played in FedEx Forum, home of the Tigers, and Memphis has one of the best home crowds in the entire country (4.0 HCA, 16th in NCAA). They’ve lost just two games at home this season (Cincinnati, Tennessee) and come into the tournament winners of six of their past seven. Penny Hardaway’s Tigers already hold wins over UCF and Temple inside FedEx Forum this year, and I think they get a second win over UCF and advance to the semis.

Semifinals and Title Game

As tempting as it is to pick another bid thief, this is where Memphis’ run dies. The Tigers only played Hoston once this year, over two months ago and on the road, but the Tigers got manhandled, 90-77, and it was a lot less close than that for most of the game. In the other semifinal, I’ll take Temple to upset Cincinnati. Temple still doesn’t have an NCAA bid locked up while Cincinnati does, so the Owls will be playing a hell of a lot more desperate. I like the way Fran Dunphy’s team doesn’t turn the ball over and their ability to force turnovers on the defensive end, give me Temple to advance to the title game to take on Houston.

Temple and Houston split the season series at one game apiece, and both of them were tight, so I would be excited for a part three should we get it. At this point, Temple will have locked up a bid, and Houston will probably be playing for the final two seed spot should things break out in their favor elsewhere. Houston just knows how to win this year, they’ve got one of the best defenses in the country and a great offense to go with it. The Cougars are a legit final four contender and if you don’t believe in them because they “don’t play anyone” talk to SEC regular-season champion LSU or the variety of great teams in the AAC that made it a power six conference this year. This Houston team is for real, Kelvin Sampson is the favorite for coach of the year, and they win the AAC Regular Season and Tournament Championships.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Wednesday, March 13th)

#12 George Washington vs #13 Massachusetts (1 PM ET, ESPN+)
#11 Richmond vs #14 Fordham (3:30 PM ET, ESPN+)

Second Round (Thursday, March 14th)

#8 Rhode Island vs #9 La Salle (12 PM ET, NBCSN)
TBD vs #5 George Mason (2:30 PM ET, NBCSN)
#7 Duquesne vs #10 Saint Joseph’s (6 PM ET, NBCSN)
TBD vs #6 Saint Louis (8:30 PM ET, NBCSN)

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 15th)

TBD vs #1 VCU (12 PM ET, NBCSN)
TBD vs #4 St. Bonaventure (2:30 PM ET, NBCSN)
TBD vs #2 Davidson (6 PM ET, NBCSN)
TBD vs #3 Dayton (8:30 PM ET, NBCSN)

Semifinals (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (1 PM ET, CBSSN)
TBD vs TBD (3:30 PM ET, CBSSN)

Championship (Sunday, March 17th)

TBD vs TBD (1 PM ET, CBS)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

VCU – 8 Seed

The Picks

The Darkhorse

The A10 is likely to be a one-bid league this year for the first time in recent memory, that is, unless we get a bid thief. The conference ended up getting three teams in the field last year due to Davidson stealing a bid on Sunday afternoon, but I’ll go with the other big team in the conference that begins with the letters “Da” as my darkhorse bid stealer: the Dayton Flyers. Dayton ranks 58th in KenPom, they play at a really slow tempo but are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the NCAA, and they won @ Davidson (their likely semifinal opponent) the only time these two met this season. I like the way Dayton plays, and three of Davidson’s four conference losses came during the month of February. I like Dayton to sweep the season series and advance to the title game.

Semifinals and Title Game

In the other semifinal, I’m going with VCU. The Rams have been head and above the competition throughout A10 play, finishing the regular season 16-2 against A10 teams. That brings us to a third VCU-Dayton showdown in the title game, with Dayton fighting for a bid and VCU fighting for seeding. VCU won both meetings during the regular season, but by a combined six points, they both could’ve gone either way. This is almost a coin flip level game, the Rams are clearly a better team, but Dayton will be fighting for a lot more to play for, a little reminiscent of the Wofford-UNC Greensboro game on Monday. At the end of the day, VCU’s awesome defense, by far the best unit in the conference, will win the day. The Rams force turnovers, guard the perimeter well and don’t allow buckets inside. They rank 5th (!!) in the entire country in adjusted defensive efficiency margin, and I think we avoid a bid thief.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Wednesday, March 13th)

#8 USC vs #9 Arizona (3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
#5 Colorado vs #12 California (5:30 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
#7 UCLA vs #10 Stanford (9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
#6 Oregon vs #11 Washington State (11:30 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)

Quarterfinals (Thursday, March 14th)

#1 Washington vs TBD (3 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
#4 Oregon State vs TBD (5:30 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
#2 Arizona State vs TBD (9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
#3 Utah vs TBD (11:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Semifinals (Friday, March 15th)

TBD vs TBD (9 PM ET, Pac-12 Network)
TBD vs TBD (11:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Championship (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (10:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

Washington – 9 Seed
Arizona State – 12 Seed (Last Four In)

The Picks

The Early Round Upset

The Pac-12 is hilariously bad this year. Judging by average KenPom rating, the Pac-12 is about as far behind the ACC as they are ahead of the CAA. Think about that. The Pac-12 marks the midpoint between ACC and the CAA. That is insane. The conference is no longer a power six league (The AAC has passed them) and they are much closer to the MAC than the Big East, which isn’t having a great year. Honestly, this conference tournament could go in pretty much any direction. What I’m trying to say is, we have a lot of upset potential here, because frankly, the top of the conference isn’t good. I’ll take Colorado over Oregon State in the quarterfinals as my early round upset. Tyler Bey is one of the few really good players in this conference, and the Buffaloes finished the season winning eight of their final ten. On the other hand, Oregon State lost three of their final four. Both of these teams can’t shoot from deep, but I like Colorado’s ability to get to the line and I see them advancing to a semifinal matchup with Washington.

The Darkhorse

The Pac-12 has just two teams in the KenPom top 60: the outright regular-season champion – Washington, 47th – and the six-seed, Oregon, who comes in at 54th. The Ducks were one of the preseason favorites in the Pac-12 but have frankly been unlucky at many points this year, dealing with injuries to Bol Bol and Abu Kigab. They come into the tournament winners of four straight, and have a legitimately great defense, second in the conference only to Washington. The Ducks have no shot at an at-large, but watch out for them as a potential bid stealer.

Semifinals and Title Game

For the reasons discussed in the darkhorse section, I’m taking Oregon over Arizona State and advancing them on to the title game. Arizona State is statistically speaking the worst team currently projected to get an at-large bid. Bobby Hurley’s team is 62nd in KenPom, and just got smacked around by Oregon 79-51 a couple days ago. In the other semi, I’m equally confident in Washington. Colorado struggles shooting the ball from three, and I like the ability of this Washington team to get ahead early and force the Buffaloes to play from behind, which they often struggle to do.

That sets up Oregon-Washington in the conference championship game. These two teams played twice this year, splitting the season series. Washington hosted the Ducks this past Saturday and actually dropped the home meeting, 55-47, and don’t let that score fool you, it was much less close than that. Oregon jumped out to a 24-8 lead in that one and never gave it back. Washington scored first and then never led again for the rest of the game. UW just got dominated at home, and it isn’t like they’ve been impressive recently outside of that, dropping a game to #248 Cal, edging out #113 Stanford by one, and then needing overtime to beat 80th ranked Oregon State at home over the past two weeks. Give me Oregon to steal a bid and make the bubble even tighter.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Wednesday, 3/13)

#8 Providence vs #9 Butler (7 PM ET, FS1)
#7 St. John’s vs #10 DePaul (9:30 PM ET, FS1)

Quarterfinals (Thursday, 3/14)

#1 Villanova vs TBD (12 PM ET, FS1)
#4 Xavier vs #5 Creighton (2:30 PM ET, FS1)
#2 Marquette vs TBD (7 PM ET, FS1)
#3 Seton Hall vs #6 Georgetown (9:30 PM ET, FS1)

Semifinals (Friday, 3/15)

TBD vs TBD (6:30 PM ET, FS1)
TBD vs TBD (9 PM ET, FS1)

Championship (Saturday, 3/16)

TBD vs TBD (6:30 PM ET, FOX)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

Marquette – 5 Seed
Villanova – 6 Seed
Seton Hall – 10 Seed
St. John’s – 11 Seed (Last Four Byes)
Creighton – First Four Out
Geotgetown – Next Four Out

The Picks

The Early Round Upset

The Big East is hilariously average this year. Every team is above .500, but no team ranks in the KenPom top 25, making this a conference pretty ripe for upsets. For my pick, I’ll take Butler over Providence on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been largely uninspiring this year, but Providence ranks as the #300 shooting team in the country (47.8 eFG%) and if you can’t shoot to begin with and then have a bad game, it’s all over for you. Butler and Providence played twice in the past two weeks, and Providence won both games, but I just can’t trust the Friars in a tournament setting, and I’ll take Butler to avenge those losses and keep their faint NCAA Tournament hopes alive.

The Darkhorse

This one is pretty easy for me, its Xavier. Marquette finished losing four straight, Villanova finished 3-5 in their final eight and St. John’s dropped four of their last five. Xavier finished winners of six of their final seven, and they’ll be fighting desperate because a poor start to the year has led to them needing the auto bid for a spot in the big dance. Whoever wins the Creighton-Xavier game is going to be very dangerous for Villanova. Both of the teams shoot the ball well, and they split the season series, I just side with Xavier because of their size and ability to slow the game down and force Creighton to play at their tempo. As long as this Xavier team can keep the turnovers to a minimum, they will be a dangerous out and could be a potential bid thief.

Semifinals and Title Game

Xavier beat Villanova for the first time in three years a couple of weeks ago, and they did it by double digits. It really is tempting to pick Xavier to go through and be a bid thief, because I think this team has the talent to do it, but at the end of the day, no matter how they finished the season, I’m taking ‘Nova. As much as Jay Wright in a tournament setting used to be a joke, he has proved the haters wrong over the past few years, especially at MSG. The Xavier-Nova semi will be a lot closer than most expect, but I like the way Villanova shares the ball to get open looks, and I think they win a tight one and advance to play Marquette. The Golden Eagles frankly looked awful to end the season, but if you don’t think Steve Wojciechowski has drilled into his guys at practice the past few days, you are crazy. Led by Markus Howard, Marquette is one of the best shooting teams from deep in the country (39.4% from three) and I love teams like that in tournament settings, so give me Marquette-Villanova III in the title game.

On the morning of February 27th, the only way Marquette could not win at least a share of the Big East Championship would be if they lost all four of their remaining games. The Golden Eagles then proceeded to lose all four of their remaining games. I don’t love either Marquette or Villanova, but I think I’ve been the low man on Marquette all year, even back then they were floating around the AP top ten, and this cold streak isn’t raising them in my eyes. I like the way they shoot, but the way Villanova controlled the tempo in both of their previous meetings leads me to side with the Wildcats here, and I’ll take Jay Wright to win the Big East yet again.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Wednesday, March 13th)

#12 Rutgers vs #13 Nebraska (6:30 PM ET, BTN)
#11 Illinois vs #14 Northwestern (9 PM ET, BTN)

Second Round (Thursday, March 14th)

#8 Ohio State vs #9 Indiana (12:30 PM ET, BTN)
#5 Maryland vs TBD (3 PM ET, BTN)
#7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State (7 PM ET, BTN)
#6 Iowa vs TBD (9:30 PM ET, BTN)

Quarterfinals (Friday, March 15th)

#1 Michigan State vs TBD (12:30 PM ET, BTN)
#4 Wisconsin vs TBD (3 PM ET, BTN)
#2 Purdue vs TBD (7 PM ET, BTN)
#3 Michigan vs TBD (9:30 PM ET, BTN)

Semifinals (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (1 PM ET, CBS)
TBD vs TBD (3:30 PM ET, CBS)

Championship (Sunday, March 17th)

TBD vs TBD (3:30 PM ET, CBS)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

Michigan State – 2 Seed
Michigan – 2 Seed
Purdue – 3 Seed
Wisconsin – 4 Seed
Maryland  5 Seed
Iowa – 8 Seed
Minnesota – 10 Seed
Ohio State – 11 Seed (Last Four Byes)
Indiana – First Four Out

The Picks

The Early Round Upset

The Big Ten is the #1 conference in the country this year according to KenPom, this group of teams is so good from top to bottom. The lowest ranked team in the conference (Illinois) in 78th in KenPom. For comparison’s sake, here is the lowest ranked team in the other power seven conferences.

Big East – DePaul (102nd)
Big 12 – West Virginia (106th)
SEC – Vanderbilt (150th)
ACC – Wake Forest (164th)
Pac-12 – California (247th)
American – Tulane (293rd)

The depth of the Big Ten is incredible, it is the only conference to have every team ranked in the top 100, and every team is in the top 80, AND they do it with 14 teams. That parity causes a lot of potential for upsets in the early rounds, and I’ve got both lower seeds winning on day one, but for my featured early round upset I’ll showcase Penn State over Minnesota on day two. The Nittany Lions are probably one of the best 14-17 teams of all time (39th in KenPom!!!), and while it is a HUGE longshot, I might put a few bucks on Penn State to win the Big Ten title at 25/1. It speaks to the talent of this team that Vegas actually gives them the sixth highest odds in the league to win the title. Penn State finished the season winners of five of their final six, with wins over both Michigan and Maryland during the month of February. Minnesota has been quite “meh” this year, and are just 3-7 in the months of February and March. These teams only played once this year, a one point Minnesota win in Minneapolis, but that was all the way back in January, Penn State is much better now, I’ll take the Nittany Lions.

The Darkhorse

I’m not exactly sure why, but I’ve been higher on Maryland than most this entire year. The Terps are battle-tested, having faced a top 20 schedule in the country. They are a decent shooting team, an awesome rebounding team and an even better defensive team. The Terps rank 20th in the country in adjustive defensive efficiency rate, and I like their height in this tournament setting. Maryland split the season series with Wisconsin in their two meetings this year, each winning at home, and I like Maryland to win the season series in a heated quarterfinal. Maryland is one of the few teams that can deal with Wisconsin’s height, and I think they move on to the semis to take on Michigan State.

Semifinals and Title Game

I’ve got Maryland-Michigan State and Michigan-Purdue in the semis, as much as I wanted to put Penn State through. I probably would have if they were facing Michigan, although I guess that kind of spoils my pick on the second game. I just haven’t been in love with Michigan all year, even back when they were the second-to-last undefeated team in the country. Their defense is great, but they really struggle when they fall behind, kind of like Virginia in the years when they aren’t reliable from three. These teams only played once this year, but it was all the way back on December 1st. Purdue got murdered in Ann Arbor, but I think Purdue is a lot better now. Michigan has struggled away from home throughout Big Ten play (1-4 @ KenPom top 41 teams in conference play) and I’ve got Purdue advancing through, and they’ll be facing Michigan State. The Spartans are 7-1 in their last eight and took care of Maryland with ease when they played them a couple of months ago. I really like the way Michigan State shares the basketball, and I like their deep bench in a tournament environment, so I’ll advance them through to the finals.

Michigan State vs Purdue will be an awesome game on Sunday. Nick Ward will be back after missing the final five games of the regular season. Ward is great on the glass, a force on the defensive end, and a great high percentage shooter. I’ve loved Purdue all year, and even back when they were 9-6, I still always thought they were a top 25 team, and ever since they avenged their earlier loss and beat Michigan State, I’ve thought of them at a top ten level. Since that first Michigan State game on 1/8, the Boilermakers are 14-2, the only losses @ Maryland and @ Minnesota, although they have just two wins over KenPom top 30 teams in that time frame. I’m really torn on this game, and you could essentially flip a coin, but I’ll side with the more talented, better shooting, and deeper team in Michigan State.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Wednesday, March 13th)

#8 TCU vs #9 Oklahoma State (7 PM ET, ESPNU)
#7 Oklahoma vs #10 West Virginia (9:30 PM ET, ESPNU)

Quarterfinals (Thursday, March 14th)

#4 Baylor vs #5 Iowa State (12:30 PM ET, ESPN2)
#1 Kansas State vs TBD (3 PM ET, ESPN2)
#2 Texas Tech vs TBD (7 PM ET, ESPN2)
#3 Kansas vs #6 Texas (9:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

Semifinals (Friday, March 15th)

TBD vs TBD (7 PM ET, ESPN2)
TBD vs TBD (9:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

Championship (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (6 PM ET, ESPN)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

Texas Tech – 3 Seed
Kansas – 4 Seed
Kansas State – 4 Seed
Iowa State – 7 Seed
Oklahoma – 8 Seed
Baylor – 9 Seed
TCU – 10 Seed
Texas – 11 Seed (Last Four Byes)

The Picks

The Early Round Upset & The Darkhorse

It is no secret that I have been a big fan of this Iowa State team all season. I’ve called the Cyclones a final four sleeper on numerous occasions, they have wins over Kansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and more, but they’ve been a little dysfunctional as of late. Since demolishing conference champion Kansas State on the road, ISU lost five of their final six games of the regular season and there have been reports of inter-team troubles and a fight in practice that led star Virginia transfer Marial Shayok to miss a game due to an injury. So, with all that dysfunction, why am I picking Iowa State as my early round upset pick and my darkhorse? Well, first off, the ‘Clones have shown they can win away from home this year, with wins @ Kansas State and @ Texas Tech during conference play. They also have the most talented roster in the league with the veteran leadership of Marial Shayok and Nick Wiler-Babb, along with a do it all freshman in Talen Horton-Tucker and one of the most efficient players in the country in Tyrese Haliburton (63.9 eFG%). This team could easily lose in the first round to Baylor, I’m not denying it, but they also have the potential to win the whole tournament, so I’ll take the Cyclones to pull the QF upset and advance to the semis.

Semifinals and Title Game

However, in the semis, Iowa State will run into a Kansas State team angry for revenge, one that got embarrassed inside the Octagon of Doom the last time these two teams played. I have seen some talk online of some hangover effect for KSU from finally being the team to break Kansas’ streak, but I think Bruce Weber will get the K-State team up for the Big 12 Tournament as well. The Wildcats’ smothering defense will force Iowa State to play at their tempo, and I think they knock off the Cyclones and advance to Saturday’s title game.  In the other semi, Texas Tech takes on Kansas. I would not be surprised if the Jayhawks come out dejected after officially being the team to end their streak of Big 12 titles. TTU demolished Kansas 91-62 just a couple weeks ago, and I think Jarrett Culver, who is a low key player of the year contender, leads the Red Raiders to a big win, advancing them on to a third game against Kansas State in the Big 12 title game.

Kansas State and Texas Tech played twice this year, but both meetings were all the way back in January, with each team beating the other at home. By the time the Big 12 Championship Game is played, it will have been almost two months since the most recent meeting, a 58-45 Kansas State win. These are two of the slower-tempoed teams in the country, so if low scoring basketball isn’t your thing, this probably isn’t for you. I like Kansas State, and they have a sweet 16 caliber team, but the Wildcats are one of the poorest shooting teams in the top 25 (49.9 eFG%, 216th in NCAA), and if they have a bad night off of that already poor level of shooting, it could spell disaster. Texas Tech is 11-1 since the last time these two played, with wins over every other Big 12 foe in that span. Keenan Evans is the best player in the conference and a legit-All American; he leads the Red Raiders to a victory and maybe even a top two seed in the big dance.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Wednesday, March 13th)

#9 Colorado State vs #8 Boise State (2 PM ET, Stadium Facebook)
#10 Wyoming vs #7 New Mexico (4:30 PM ET, Stadium Facebook)
#11 San Jose State vs #6 Air Force (7 PM ET, Stadium Facebook)

Quarterfinals (Thursday, March 14th)

TBD vs #1 Nevada (3 PM ET, CBSSN)
#5 UNLV vs #4 San Diego State (5:30 PM ET, CBSSN)
TBD vs #2 Utah State (9 PM ET, CBSSN)
TBD vs #3 Fresno State (11:30 PM ET, CBSSN)

Semifinals (Friday, March 15th)

TBD vs TBD (9 PM ET, CBSSN)
TBD vs TBD (11:30 PM ET, CBSSN)

Championship (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (6 PM ET, CBS)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

Nevada – 6 Seed
Utah State – 10 Seed

The Picks

 

The Darkhorse

There is a pretty clear top three in the Mountain West between Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno State, and then a 70 spot drop before you get to the next-highest ranked team in KenPom (San Diego State). We hear a lot about Nevada and Utah State, both of whom have probably already locked up bids, but keep an eye out for Fresno State. The Bulldogs haven’t been getting a ton of national respect but finished just two games behind the conference leaders in the standings at 13-5 in MWC play. They are one of the best shooting teams in the country, especially from deep (38.6%, 16th in the nation), and their defense is really great on the perimeter too. The Bulldogs beat Utah State on the road already this season and had a lead on Nevada in Reno with under five minutes to play before ultimately falling, 74-68. Bubble teams need to watch out, because this is a potential bid stealer.

Semifinals and Title Game

I have been lower than the consensus on this Nevada team all year, and while I’ll pick them to get past a San Diego State team on Friday that has lost three of four, I just can’t bring myself to pick them to win the conference title, there are just too many flaws with this team. They have struggled away from home this year, and their bench is one of the shortest in the country, something I don’t like in a tournament setting where you have to play three games in three days. That leaves who their opponent will be in the MWC title game, and while I like the potential of Fresno State as a bid-stealer, they run into a Utah State team that is firing on all cylinders right now. The Aggies closed the season winning seven straight, including games @ Colorado State and Boise State as well as winning at home against Nevada and San Diego State. They beat Fresno State on the road in a tight one about a month ago, and if they can get through the Bulldogs, I like their matchup with Nevada. The Aggies won 81-76 when the two played on March 2nd, and they are one of the few teams in the conference that can match the Wolfpack’s height. I like that about them. The title game will be heated after what happened after the last game, and while I might be reading too much into this, in a heated game, where both teams could be in foul trouble, I trust Utah State’s bench way more than I do Nevada’s, and in conference title games where the two teams are quite close in skill level, little things like that can make the difference. Give me USU to win the MWC Title and the season series with Nevada.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Tuesday, March 12th)

#12 Miami vs #13 Wake Forest (12 PM ET, ESPN)
#10 Georgia Tech vs #15 Notre Dame (2:30 PM ET, ESPN)
#11 Boston College vs #14 Pittsburgh (7 PM ET, ESPN)

Second Round (Wednesday, March 13th)

#8 NC State vs #9 Clemson (12 PM ET, ESPN)
#5 Virginia Tech vs TBD (2 PM ET, ESPN)
#7 Louisville vs TBD (7 PM ET, ESPN2)
#6 Syracuse vs TBD (9:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

Quarterfinals (Thursday, March 14th)

#1 Virginia vs TBD (12:30 PM ET, ESPN)
#4 Florida State vs TBD (3 PM ET, ESPN)
#2 North Carolina vs TBD (7 PM ET, ESPN)
#3 Duke vs TBD (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Semifinals (Friday, March 15th)

TBD vs TBD (7 PM ET, ESPN)
TBD vs TBD (9:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Championship (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (8:30 PM ET, ESPN)

Bracketology

*As of 3/10*

Virginia – 1 Seed
Duke – 1 Seed
North Carolina – 1 Seed
Florida State – 4 Seed
Virginia Tech – 5 Seed
Louisville – 7 Seed
Syracuse – 9 Seed
NC State – 12 Seed (Last Four In)
Clemson – 12 Seed (Last Four In)

The Picks

The Early Round Upset

The ACC is really good top to bottom this year, and I’ve got two upsets on day one: Notre Dame over Georgia Tech and Wake Forest over Miami, but for my featured early round upset we’ll head to day two in the 8-9 game. For diehard college basketball fans like me “Champ Week” starts from the first MVC or Big South noon game, but for most college basketball fans, that 8-9 ACC game on Wednesday is when things always start to pick up, because it’s almost always a game with huge bubble implications, and that remains the case here. Both Clemson and NC State sit squarely on the bubble (in my last four in) heading into postseason play. This a big one for both, but I definitely think Clemson needs it more. The Tigers are 35th in the NET and currently sit as my very last team in. I like Clemson in this spot, they’ve won four of five, the only loss coming by two to the #2 in the conference, North Carolina. The two teams played back in January, a 69-67 NC State win in Raleigh, but this is a better Clemson team now and with the neutral court environment I see the Tigers improving their chances at a bid with a win here. The offense is sometimes hit or miss for UC, and they really struggle with turnovers, but the defense is extraordinary, and they are great on the defensive glass. I’ve been lower than most on NC State all year, and the Wolfpack faced the second easiest schedule in the conference so could be a little overseeded here. I’ll take Brad Brownell and Clemson.

The Darkhorse

I like Virginia Tech as my darkhorse pick. The Hokies would have to win four games in four days to do it, something that has only been done once in the history of the ACC Tournament (Duke in 2017), but this VT team is really good. The defense has been on the upswing in recent weeks and the offense has been great all season. Buzz Williams’ team is the #8 shooting team in the nation and I like that in a tournament environment, they shoot 40% from three (seventh in the NCAA) and do a great job of forcing turnovers on the defensive end. The Hokies already hold wins over Purdue and Duke this year, and they were quite close to also beating Virginia and Florida State in recent weeks. Speaking of the Seminoles, that will be VT’s game Thursday morning with a win on Wednesday, the two teams just went to overtime in Tallahassee, but VT had an uncharacteristically bad shooting night on that day and they get this one on a neutral court, so I’ll pick them to avenge that loss and advance to Friday’s semifinals to face a Virginia team they’ve already taken to the limit once.

Semifinals and Title Game

I have an awesome Friday Night lined up in the ACC, with Virginia-Virginia Tech III and Duke-North Carolina III. Both rivalries were swept by their respective higher seeds, Virginia and North Carolina, so there is a huge revenge factor at play here. First up, I’ve got Virginia over VT in the early game, meaning the Cavaliers sweep the season series. To me, it is undeniable that since Zion Williamson’s injury Virginia has been the best team in the country. The Wahoos are winners of eight straight including four wins over KenPom top 20 teams, three of which were on the road. I’m not counting out a Virginia Tech win, the Hokies shot just 11% from three in the second meeting this year and still only lost by six, but I can tell from experience of going to the ACC Tournament every year that this Virginia crowd travels, and I think the Cavaliers win in a tight, low scoring game.

Then we move on to what may be the most interesting potential matchup of championship week, Duke vs Carolina III. UNC swept the season series by a combined 25 points, but Zion Williamson played for a total of like 30 seconds between those games. Zion is “likely” for the tournament, far from a guarantee that he’ll play, but even if he does, how will he fit back into the lineup after missing three weeks, and will he be at 100%? I am far from sure, and this is maybe the toughest game to call of the entire weekend, but there are just too many question marks with Duke right now even if they are the most talented team in the field. I won’t deviate from what we’ve seen in the first two meetings, and even if Zion is magically healed and fits perfectly back into the lineup, I like Carolina’s ability to attack inside with Luke Maye, and I see us getting a Carolina-Virginia ACC title game for back to back seasons (and three of the past four years).

Virginia and North Carolina played just once this season, it will have been played over a month ago by the time of the ACC title game. That one was a 69-61 Cavalier win in Chapel Hill. Neither team has lost since that game, and we should get an awesome atmosphere in Charlotte should this be the matchup. The first game was back and forth, and Carolina led by seven at the under eight, but Virginia eventually pulled away thanks to a terrific 55% shooting night from deep. It should also be mentioned that Nas Little went down early in that game with an injury, the freshman sixth man is back to full strength and put up nine and four against Duke on Saturday. I feel like Virginia is going to be a popular pick here, but it really isn’t that cut and dry to me. UNC might need this for a one seed depending on how things go elsewhere (they probably won’t) but Virginia will likely be playing for the #1 overall. I could very well see an overtime game here, these teams are so evenly matched and both come in hot, but at the end of the day, I like Virginia’s ability to slow things down to their tempo. The first game they played this year had just 60 possessions, for context, the next lowest UNC had all season was 69, and they average around 80. UNC seems to always fall into the tempo trap against Virginia, and De’Andre Hunter is the best player on the floor. He put up 20 and five in the first game and I see him repeating that performance here and leading UVA to their third ACC Tournament Championship in six years to go along with their four ACC 1st place finishes in that span.

The Bracket

How To Watch

First Round (Monday, March 11th)

#12 Western Michigan @ #5 Central Michigan (7 PM ET, ESPN+)
#11 Ball State @ #6 Eastern Michigan (7 PM ET, ESPN+)
#9 Miami (Ohio) @ #8 Akron (8 PM ET, ESPN+)
#10 Ohio @ #7 Northern Illinois (9 PM ET, ESPN+)

Quarterfinals (Thursday, Match 14th)

TBD vs #1 Buffalo (12 PM ET, ESPN+)
TBD vs #4 Kent State (2:30 PM ET, ESPN+)
TBD vs #2 Toledo (6:30 PM ET, ESPN+)
TBD vs #3 Bowling Green (9 PM ET, ESPN+)

Semifinals (Friday, March 15th)

TBD vs TBD (6:30 PM ET, CBSSN)
TBD vs TBD (9 PM ET, Fox College Sports Atlantic)

Championship (Saturday, March 16th)

TBD vs TBD (7:30 PM ET, ESPN2)

Bracketology

*As of 3/8*

Buffalo – 6 seed
Toledo – Next Four Out

The Picks

*Monday games hosted by higher seed

The Early Round Upset

With half of the conference between 6-12 and 8-10 in MAC play, that first night of games would normally be ripe for upsets, but the conference decided to let the higher seeded teams host the first round of games, which obviously make things harder for underdogs. I’d watch Ball State-Eastern Michigan Monday night, I think I’d pick Ball State if it was a neutral, but my early round upset comes in the 10-7 game. Ohio is a really talented team that has fallen short of expectations this year. They were the preseason #3 in the MAC according to KenPom but finished the year 10th in the conference standings. The Bobcats come into the conference tournament having won three of their past five -the only losses coming to the #1 and #3 seeds by a combined eight point-  including a 73-49 win @ an underrated Akron teamn. NIU swept the season series, but their last meeting was over a month ago and this is a better Bobcat team right now. Neither of these teams are great, they’ve combined for six wins in the months of both February and March, but I’ll take this battle-tested Ohio team, which has faced one of the toughest schedules in the country among mid-major teams.

The Darkhorse

If I’m being honest, I couldn’t really see any team outside of Buffalo winning the title here. That’s not to say Buffalo is some Gonzaga level unbeatable conference champion, they lost two games in conference play and seven of their 16 wins were by single digits, I just don’t have enough confidence in anyone but the Bulls to win. Except for maybe Toledo. The Rockets are 54th in KenPom, a borderline bubble team, and hot, winners of five straight and ten of their past 12. They shoot the ball well from deep and hit their free throws, they spread the ball around and they play tight defense, especially on the perimeter. This is a dangerous team, and if they are able to steal the autobid, watch out for them in March.

Semifinals and Title Game

I’ve got two fun semifinals for Friday, Buffalo-Kent State and Toledo-Bowling Green, but I will go chalk and pick the favorites in both. Neither Kent State nor Bowling Green showed much in their previous meetings with their respective opponents to make me believe they can avenge those losses, therefore I’ll go with the boring Buffalo-Toledo final. Buffalo dominated the first game 110-80, but Toledo jumped out to a 17-4 lead in the return game before ultimately blowing it. The Rockets have the talent to pull off the upset here, but I like the tempo of the Bulls in the tournament environment. They shoot the ball well, crash the boards, and don’t turn the ball over, and I think they will be your MAC Champions.