Category: FOOTBALL

The biggest game of the year to date will take center stage, as #3 Georgia and the best defense in the country takes on #2 Alabama and the best offense in the country. Also on the docket:

• Our first big midweek showdown of the season as ULL takes on Coastal Carolina in a potential Sun Belt title preview… on a Wednesday!?
• Tulsa looks to pull another big upset and jump into the top 25 as they travel to #8 Cincinnati
• Trevor Lawrence and #1 Clemson hope to avoid a letdown effect post-Miami as they take on Georgia Tech
• A sneaky good South Carolina team has the home-field edge hosting #15 Auburn
• Fresh off of a win against Mississippi State, Kentucky looks to make it two in a row @ #18 Tennessee
• Two teams hoping to stay alive in the AAC race – UCF and Memphis – square off
• LSU hopes to save their season after a 1-2 start traveling to face #10 Florida
• #23 Virginia Tech looks to avoid the upset against a very underrated Boston College squad

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 106-34 (76%)
ATS Best Bets: 22-13 (+7.0 units)
ATS Total: 76-58-6 (+11.2 units)

Best Bets

Houston (+5.5) vs #14 BYU – Friday, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN
East Carolina (+2) vs Navy – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
NC State (-4) vs Duke – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Memphis (+3.5) vs UCF – 3:30 PM ET, ABC
Charlotte (-6.5) vs Florida International – 8 PM ET, ESPNU

Wednesday, October 14th

Coastal Carolina (3-0, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ #21 Louisiana (3-0, 2-0 Sun Belt)

7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Louisiana -7

This Wednesday night tilt between Louisiana and Coastal Carolina may be a preview of the eventual Sun Belt title game in December. Both squads will head into the matchup unbeaten, and each has a win over a power five foe under their belt from non-conference play. Coastal RB CJ Marable is the player to watch for the Chanticleers, and QB Grayson McCall is a little inconsistent but has played out of his mind so far in 2020. However, Louisiana is at home here. The ULL offensive line is up there with the best in the G5, and the rushing duo of Trey Ragas and Eli Mitchell is lights out good. This will be a fun game to watch, but when all is said and done, the Cajuns will come out on top.

CSD Pick: Louisiana 35, Coastal Carolina 26

Thursday, October 15th

Georgia State (1-1, 0-1 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State (2-2, 0-1 Sun Belt)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -3.5

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 35, Georgia State 33

Friday, October 16th

#17 SMU (4-0, 1-0 American) @ Tulane (2-2, 0-2 American)
6 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: SMU -8

CSD Pick: SMU 37, Tulane 30

#14 BYU (4-0) @ Houston (1-0)
9:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: BYU -5.5

Two unbeaten teams will roll into TDECU Stadium on Friday night, only one will come out with that unbeaten record intact. BYU had been lights out this year, emphasis on had, the Cougars struggled with UTSA mightily last week, and they’ll be taking on a Houston team that is better than any opponent they’ve faced this year, and Kalani Sitake’s group will have to do it on the road. Houston, led by playmaker Marquez Stevenson, looked awesome in their season-opening 49-31 win over Tulane, and the boys from H-Town cruised to that victory despite five turnovers. Clean that up, and at home, I think Houston could pull the upset, so I’m definitely taking the 5.5.

CSD Pick: BYU 33, Houston 32

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Houston +5.5

Saturday, October 17th

#1 Clemson (4-0, 3-0 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (2-2, 2-1 ACC)

12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -26.5

This is getting a little boring at this point. I really like this Georgia Tech team, they knocked off Louisville last week, they’re young, the defense has shown signs of excellence, and on paper, they probably should keep this one within 26.5, but against Clemson, I just can’t lock it up, even if I think its the right side. Trevor Lawrence and company are just too good, and they’ll continue to roll ACC foes as we head towards the November 7th showdown against Notre Dame.

CSD Pick: Clemson 42, Georgia Tech 21

#8 Cincinnati (3-0, 1-0 American) @ Tulsa (1-1, 1-0 American) – CANCELLED

12 PM ET, CANCELLED
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -4.5

This has got to be one of my most anticipated games of the week. We’ve only seen Tulsa play twice this year, but they almost knocked off a top ten Oklahoma State team on the road and then did knock off a top 15 UCF team on the road in their two games so far. At home, taking on an excellent foe in Cincinnati, this is the Golden Hurricane’s chance to prove themselves. I just think Cincy is too good. I thought Gerrid Doaks and the Bearcats were the best team in the AAC coming into the year, and I’m firm in that conviction now. Zach Smith has just been too inconsistent for Tulsa to bet on the offense, and the Cincy defense is good. Like really good. The Bearcats forced five turnovers against USF last week. Cincy goes to 4-0, but it will be close.

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 27, Tulsa 22

Pittsburgh (3-2, 2-2 ACC) @ #13 Miami (3-1, 2-1 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Miami -10.5

CSD Pick: Miami 31, Pittsburgh 21

#15 Auburn (2-1 SEC) @ South Carolina (1-2 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Auburn -2.5

It is so tempting to pick the upset here. At home, in a year where his job may be on the line, everything in my heart says that Will Muschamp is going to get this done, but my head says the opposite. This Auburn team has had a rough start to the year, but they are too talented to let that continue to be the case. I’ve not been the biggest fan of Bo Nix over the past couple of years, but I think he does just enough, and the Auburn defense secures the Tigers a win, stifling a struggling Gamecocks offense.

CSD Pick: Auburn 25, South Carolina 23

Kentucky (1-2 SEC) @ #18 Tennessee (2-1 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -6

This is the presumptive “third-place game” in the SEC East. Tennessee is looking to turn things around after a loss to Georgia last week, and I think they’ll do just that. The Vols are at home here, Jarrett Gurantano will be good, and the Kentucky offense, which has really struggled so far this year, will struggle to put up points against a solid Tennessee D. Vols, but close.

CSD Pick: Tennessee 29, Kentucky 24

Navy (2-2, 2-0 American) @ East Carolina (1-2, 1-1 American)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Navy -2

Navy has been one of the worst teams in football all year, there is no way they should be a road favorite over an ECU team that smacked around USF on the road, 44-24, in their last outing. Give me the Pirates to improve to 2-1 in AAC play.

CSD Pick: East Carolina 32, Navy 21

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – East Carolina +2

Texas State (1-4, 1-1 Sun Belt) @ South Alabama (1-2)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: South Alabama -3

CSD Pick: South Alabama 28, Texas State 25

South Florida (1-3, 0-2 American) @ Temple (0-1, 0-1 American)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Temple -10

CSD Pick: Temple 31, South Florida 20

Liberty (4-0) @ Syracuse (1-3)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -3.5

CSD Pick: Syracuse 30, Liberty 26

Kansas (0-3, 0-2 Big 12) @ West Virginia (2-1, 1-1 Big 12)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: West Virginia -22.5

CSD Pick: West Virginia 36, Kansas 11

Army (4-1) @ UTSA (3-2)
1:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -7

CSD Pick: Army 30, UTSA 24

Western Kentucky (1-3, 1-1 C-USA) @ UAB (3-1, 1-0 C-USA)
1:30 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: UAB -12.5

CSD Pick: UAB 31, Western Kentucky 17

Louisville (1-3, 0-3 ACC) @ #4 Notre Dame (3-0, 2-0 ACC)
2:30 PM ET, NBC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -17

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 39, Louisville 23

Duke (1-4, 1-4 ACC) @ NC State (3-1, 3-1 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: NC State -4

CSD Pick: NC State 29, Duke 21

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – NC State -4

UCF (2-1, 1-1 American) @ Memphis (1-1, 0-1 American)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: UCF -3.5

This may be the best game of the day. If you like points, this one is for you, because we’ll have a lot of them. Both of these teams were ranked to start the year and favorites in the AAC, but both dropped early season games and are now faced with the task of getting back on track. For UCF, the loss came to Tulsa, for Memphis, to SMU. I think this one is practically a coin flip, but Memphis is at home, and getting points, in a shootout, always take the points. This will be a well-executed game, both teams had a bye week to prepare, and either team could score into the 40s. This will be a fun one.

CSD Pick: Memphis 39, UCF 38

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Memphis +3.5

Ole Miss (1-2 SEC) @ Arkansas (1-2 SEC)
3:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Ole Miss -4

CSD Pick: Ole Miss 34, Arkansas 31

Eastern Kentucky (1-3) @ Troy (2-1)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Troy -28

CSD Pick: Troy 40, Eastern Kentucky 13

LSU (1-2 SEC) @ #10 Florida (2-1 SEC) – CANCELLED

CANCELLED
Vegas Line: Florida -11

Both of these teams were upset last week. For Florida, a loss will kill their CFP playoff hopes. LSU’s hopes are already dead, but the Tigers are looking for a win to save their season. LSU is not nearly asbad as their 1-2 record indicates, but they aren’t great either, and they’ll be on the road here, against a UF team hungry to prove themselves on the national stage. The LSU defense won’t be able to stop the Kyle Trask to Kyle Allen connection, and the Gators will roll.

CSD Pick: Florida 42, LSU 33

#11 Texas A&M (2-1 SEC) @ Mississippi State (1-2 SEC)
4 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -6

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 31, Mississippi State 24

Virginia (1-2, 1-2 ACC) @ Wake Forest (1-2, 0-2 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia -1

CSD Pick: Virginia 31, Wake Forest 30

UMass (0-0) @ Georgia Southern (2-1)
4 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -28.5

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 43, UMass 13

North Texas (1-3, 0-2 C-USA) @ Middle Tennessee (1-4, 1-2 C-USA)
5 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee -6.5

CSD Pick: Middle Tennessee 36, North Texas 29

Marshall (3-0, 1-0 C-USA) @ Louisiana Tech (3-1, 2-0 C-USA)
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Marshall -13

CSD Pick: Marshall 35, Louisiana Tech 21

#5 North Carolina (3-0, 3-0 ACC) @ Florida State (1-3, 0-3 ACC)
7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: North Carolina -13

CSD Pick: North Carolina 38, Florida State 27

Southern Mississippi (1-3, 1-1 C-USA) @ UTEP (3-2, 0-1 C-USA)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Southern Miss -3.5

CSD Pick: Southern Miss 27, UTEP 25

#3 Georgia (3-0 SEC) @ #2 Alabama (3-0 SEC)

8 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama –6.5

The game of the century of the week will emqnate from where else but Tuscaloosa, Alabama on Saturday night as #3 Georgia travels to face #2 Alabama. In my computer’s rankings, this is actually #2 traveling to #1, so an even bigger matchup. This is the best defense in the nation, Georgia, taking on the best offense in the land, Alabama, and it will be a knock-down, drag-em-out type of game.

This game will come down to the QB play. I like Stetson Bennett, he’s good, really good, maybe even better than Jake Fromm was. Bennett will make some throws against a struggling Alabama secondary, but. Bennett is good; he’s not Mac Jones good, Jones has hit 80% of his passes for over 1,100 yards in just three games, and Najee Harris has added ten rushing touchdowns as well. DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddles might be the two best pass-catchers in the entire country.

Georgia’s defense will get a few stops, but it won’t be enough. Alabama’s offense, at home, will power through, and ‘Bama will win round one of this showdown. I won’t be surprised if we a second, or even a third, though.

CSD Pick: Alabama 33, Georgia 27

Boston College (3-1, 2-1 ACC) @ #23 Virginia Tech (2-1, 2-1 ACC)

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -11

This is your so-called “flip-to” game during Georgia-Alabama, and it’s a pretty good one. It seems neither of these teams is quite at the level of an ACC title contender, but they are certainly on that next tier, and BC especially intrigues me as they’ve been one of the teams that has overperformed expectations the most for me this year. Tech may still have a few players out to COVID, and even if they didn’t, BC is good enough to pull the upset, but the Hokies are at home and are the more talented team. If they stick with Hendon Hooker at QB here, they’ll roll.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 36, Boston College 26

Florida International (0-2, 0-1 C-USA) @ Charlotte (1-2, 1-1 C-USA)
8 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Charlotte -6.5

The “bet Charlotte” principle returns again. The 49ers are one of the best teams in Conference USA, and Vegas has not caught on yet. At home, against an FIU team among the worst in the nation, I’ll take Will Healy’s squad to easily cover a touchdown.

CSD Pick: Charlotte 32, Florida International 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Charlotte -6.5

1. Clemson (NC)
2. Alabama (NC)
3. Georgia (NC)
4. Notre Dame (+1)
5. North Carolina (+2)
6. Oklahoma State (+2)
7. Cincinnati (+2)
8. Florida (-4)
9. Texas A&M (+7)
10. Miami (-4)
11. Auburn (-1)
12. BYU (NC)
13. SMU (+1)
14. Tennessee (-3)
15. Iowa State (+4)
16. Louisiana (+2)
17. Kansas State (+3)
18. Virginia Tech (-3)
19. Marshall (+5)
20. NC State (NEW)
21. Oklahoma (NEW)
22. Tulsa (+3)
23. UCF (-1)
24. Boston College (NEW)
25. Coastal Carolina (NEW)

The rankings remain strange for one more week – as we will add in Big Ten, Pac-12, Mountain West, and MAC teams next week. Until then, check out this week’s list!

A note, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season, even if a team continues to lose. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily.

Rank	Team	Conf	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	0	0
2	Georgia	SEC	0	1
3	Clemson	ACC	0	-1
4	Florida	SEC	1	1
5	Notre Dame	ACC	-1	5
6	Texas A&M	SEC	1	0
7	Oklahoma	Big 12	2	-3
8	North Carolina	ACC	3	4
9	Texas	Big 12	4	0
10	Tennessee	SEC	6	6
11	Iowa State	Big 12	1	4
12	Oklahoma State	Big 12	2	-1
13	Miami (FL)	ACC	-3	9
14	Auburn	SEC	-8	-6
15	Louisiana State	SEC	-7	-8
16	Kentucky	SEC	-1	4
17	Cincinnati	AAC	2	-3
18	Virginia Tech	ACC	-1	-5
19	South Carolina	SEC	2	11
20	Mississippi	SEC	-2	4
21	North Carolina State	ACC	8	17
22	Memphis	AAC	0	-3
23	West Virginia	Big 12	1	11
24	Kansas State	Big 12	9	5
25	Missouri	SEC	10	11
26	Central Florida	AAC	1	-9
27	Texas Christian	Big 12	-7	-1
28	Georgia Tech	ACC	15	17
29	Mississippi State	SEC	3	3
30	Baylor	Big 12	0	-7
31	Arkansas	SEC	13	20
32	Southern Methodist	AAC	-1	-1
33	Pittsburgh	ACC	-5	-8
34	Florida State	ACC	2	-13
35	Wake Forest	ACC	-1	0
36	Virginia	ACC	-13	-8
37	Brigham Young	Ind	-11	3
38	Houston	AAC	2	-1
39	Louisville	ACC	-14	-21
40	Boston College	ACC	5	2
41	Tulsa	AAC	-4	16
42	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-4	-1
43	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-4	-16
44	Texas Tech	Big 12	-3	-5
45	Duke	ACC	3	-1
46	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-4	-13
47	Marshall	CUSA	-1	3
48	Tulane	AAC	1	-1
49	Syracuse	ACC	-2	-1
50	Temple	AAC	0	-1
51	Charlotte	CUSA	1	5
52	Georgia State	Sun Belt	2	12
53	East Carolina	AAC	12	7
54	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-1	1
55	Troy	Sun Belt	7	10
56	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0	-4
57	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	0	12
58	Vanderbilt	SEC	-3	3
59	Army	Ind	-8	3
60	Navy	AAC	0	-17
61	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-2	-15
62	South Alabama	Sun Belt	1	10
63	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	1	-5
64	Liberty	Ind	5	6
65	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	7	-2
66	Rice	CUSA	2	0
67	Texas State	Sun Belt	-6	8
68	South Florida	AAC	-10	-9
69	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1	-16
70	Kansas	Big 12	1	-3
71	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	3	0
72	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-6	-18
73	Florida International	CUSA	-6	-5
74	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	1	2
75	North Texas	CUSA	-2	-2
76	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	0	-2

After shedding it to the SEC for the past couple weeks, the ACC is back in the spotlight, as Trevor Lawrence and #1 Clemson will host D’Eriq King and the #7 Miami Hurricanes. Also on the schedule:

• #19 Virginia Tech and #8 North Carolina will square off in a battle that could have future ACC Title qualification implications
• #21 Texas A&M looks to rebound from the loss to Alabama hosting #4 Florida
• Red River will be a battle of two teams trying to turn their seasons around, as #22 Texas takes on Oklahoma
• #3 Georgia will host #14 Tennessee in the first big SEC East battle of the season
• Two teams that pulled upsets earlier this year, Kansas State and TCU, will face off in a Big 12 clash
• NC State travels to Virginia in a matchup between two potential sleeper teams in the ACC
• Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss will look to do the impossible hosting #2 Alabama
• An 0-2 Kentucky team that is a lot better than that record indicates will look to get on the board hosting Mississippi State

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 87-24 (78%)
ATS Best Bets: 16-10 (+ 6 units)
ATS Total: 58-49-4

Best Bets

Missouri (+20.5) vs #17 LSU – 12 PM ET, TBA
Texas State (+7.5) @ Troy – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Ole Miss (+24.5) vs #2 Alabama – 6 PM ET, ESPN
Temple (PK) @ Navy – 6 PM ET, CBSSN
#7 Miami (+15.5) @ #1 Clemson – 7:30 PM ET, ABC
UTEP (+15) @ Louisiana Tech – 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Marshall (-4.5) @ WKU – 7:30 PM ET, FSN/Stadium
Kentucky (-2) vs Mississippi State – 7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Charlotte (-2.5) @ North Texas – 8 PM ET, ESPNU

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Thursday, October 8th

Tulane (2-1, 0-1 American) @ Houston
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Houston -5

CSD Pick: Houston 32, Tulane 26

Friday, October 9th

Louisville (1-2, 0-2 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (1-2, 1-1 ACC)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Louisville -6

CSD Pick: Louisville 31, Georgia Tech 26

Saturday, October 10th

#4 Florida (2-0 SEC) @ #21 Texas A&M (1-1 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -6

Texas A&M seems to be a team that I whiffed on this year. I had faith in Kellen Mond and this Texas A&M offense, but through two games, they just haven’t been at the level I expected them to reach. Now, this is still a talented team, and the Aggies will have home-field advantage here, but Florida has been firing on all cylinders so far this year. The Kyle Trask to Kyle Pitts connections racked up touchdown after touchdown against Ole Miss and South Carolina, and I don’t expect an Aggie pass defense that is among the worst in the conference to do much to slow it down. I’ll take the Gators to move to 3-0.

CSD Pick: Florida 31, Texas A&M 27

#19 Virginia Tech (2-0, 2-0 ACC) @ #8 North Carolina (2-0, 2-0 ACC)

12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: North Carolina -5.5

The Miami vs Clemson showdown in primetime will get all the headlines, but this is a very intriguing matchup between my #4 and #5 teams in the ACC, and could absolutely have an impact on the conference title race.

Neither of these teams hav3 fully lived up to their potential so far, although both have dealt with complications due to COVID. UNC struggled in a 26-22 win over Boston College last Saturday in what was their first game in three weeks, for Virginia Tech, the Hokies were missing QB Hendon Hooker and almost the entire secondary against Duke. Tech will get Hooker back for this one, as they will much of the secondary, but there are just too many questions swirling around this VT team to pick them here. Expect UNC QB Sam Howell to have a standout game, and for the Tar Heels to move to 3-0.

CSD Pick: North Carolina 36, Virginia Tech 31

#17 LSU (1-1 SEC) @ Missouri (0-2 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: LSU -20.5

This game was originally scheduled to be played in Baton Rouge but was moved to Columbia due to the incoming hurricane in the Southeast. LSU will win, but I think the sudden location change may throw the Tigers off their game, not to mention that the offense has been incredibly inconsistent. I expect Missouri and new starter Connor Bazelak to cover the 20.5.

CSD Pick: LSU 36, Missouri 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Missouri +20.5

#22 Texas (2-1, 1-1 Big 12) vs. Oklahoma (1-2, 0-2 Big 12) in Dallas, TX

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -2.5

It’s impossible to get excited about Red River this year. Both of these teams, along with really the entire Big 12, have fallen short of expectations this year. Both teams have abysmal secondaries, so at the very least there should be some points on the board here, but I’m going to take Oklahoma to pick up the win, almost for no other reason than that the Sooners losing three in a row would be inconceivable. I also believe that in the scheme of bad defenses, the Texas defense is just a little bit worse. I’ll take OU, close.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 36, Texas 33

UL Monroe (0-4) @ Liberty (3-0)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Liberty -21.5

CSD Pick: Liberty 40, UL Monroe 21

NC State (2-1, 2-1 ACC) @ Virginia (1-1, 1-1 ACC)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia -10

This is a game that will fly under the radar, but these are two middle-class teams in the ACC that have potential to sneak into the back half of the top 25 at some point this season, so I’d get some eyes on it if you can.

Virginia has looked really good so far, beating Duke (and forcing seven turnovers in the process!) and also hanging much closer than expected with #1 Clemson. As for NC State, its been up-and-down. The Wolfpack looked excellent in a season-opening win against NC State, then were dominated by a Virginia Tech team that had over a dozen players out with COVID, then rebounded to knock off a ranked Pitt team. I like Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong, though, and I think his play, along with the home edge, will be the difference to a UVa win on Saturday, but this game really could go either way.

CSD Pick: Virginia 32, NC State 25

South Carolina (0-2 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-2 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: South Carolina -11.5

CSD Pick: South Carolina 27, Vanderbilt 11

Duke (0-4, 0-4 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-2, 1-2 ACC)
12:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Syracuse 24, Duke 23

The Citadel (0-3) @ Army (3-1)
1:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -29

CSD Pick: Army 41, The Citadel 8

#14 Tennessee (2-0 SEC) @ #3 Georgia (2-0 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Georgia -14

Alright, time to see if Tennessee is for real. On the road, against a new look Georgia team that is playing like a top-three team in the nation, can they hang in there, or are they getting dominated? That’s the question.

I think the Vols match up well with Georgia; the offensive line of UT is up there with the best in the nation, which should negate some of Georgia’s advantage in the pass rush game. However, this UT team is just too untrustworthy to take straight up on the road against a team of Georgia’s caliber. Stetson Bennett has looked great through two games, and I think he’ll keep the performance up here as the Dawgs move to 3-0 with Alabama coming up.

CSD Pick: Georgia 31, Tennessee 16

UTSA (3-1) @ #15 BYU (3-0)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: BYU -35

CSD Pick: BYU 50, UTSA 16

Texas Tech (1-2, 0-2 Big 12) @ #24 Iowa State (2-1, 2-0 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Iowa State -13

CSD Pick: Iowa State 38, Texas Tech 25

Central Arkansas (2-2) @ Arkansas State (1-2)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -14.5

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 39, Central Arkansas 21

Texas State (1-3, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ Troy (1-1)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Troy -7.5

As they’ve played four games, I’ve gotten a lot of eyes on Texas State this year, and while this is a young team, they’ve got a lot of talent, and Jake Spavital’s squad will pull an upset or two in Sun Belt play this year. Will it be this week? I’m not sure, but the Bobcats are certainly good enough to keep it within 7.5.

CSD Pick: Troy 29, Texas State 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Texas State +7.5

Arkansas (1-1 SEC) @ #13 Auburn (1-1 SEC)
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Auburn -16.5

CSD Pick: Auburn 29, Arkansas 16

Pitt (3-1, 2-1 ACC) @ Boston College (2-1, 1-1 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pitt -5

CSD Pick: Pitt 26, Boston College 22

Kansas State (2-1, 2-0 Big 12) @ TCU (1-1, 1-1 Big 12)

4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: TCU -9.5

Both of these teams pulled upsets against teams thought to be at the top of the Big 12, both seem positioned to crack into the AP Top 25 with a victory, this game could have Big 12 title stakes. And yet, for some reason, it’s flying under the radar.

For TCU, QB Max Duggan has been great, but the defense, unlike many Gary Patterson teams, hasn’t lived up to par. However, I haven’t like Skylar Thompson this year, and I don’t think TCU’s defensive struggles matter against a K-State team that struggles to put up points and lost to Arkansas State earlier this year. Give me the Horned Frogs by a score.

CSD Pick: TCU 30, Kansas State 22

Middle Tennessee (0-4, 0-2 C-USA) @ FIU (0-1)
4 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: FIU -4.5

CSD Pick: FIU 30, Middle Tennessee 25

#2 Alabama (2-0 SEC) @ Ole Miss (1-1 SEC)

6 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Alabama -24.5

Ok. I bet against Alabama last week, it didn’t work out. Let’s try it again. Ole Miss may have the best passing offense in the SEC, and while the Rebels’ defense might not get a single stop against Alabama’s first strings, I have a feeling that Lane Kiffin’s boys won’t stop trying to score on their end, even after the backups are in for Bama. Give me Kiffin, Matt Corral, and the Runnin’ Rebels to squeak out a good ol’ backdoor cover.

CSD Pick: Alabama 45, Ole Miss 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Ole Miss +24.5

Temple @ Navy (1-2, 1-0 American)
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Pick’em

We haven’t seen Temple play yet this year, but we have seen Navy play. They’ve been abysmal. Jump on this before the line changes.

CSD Pick: Temple 30, Navy 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Temple Pick’em

East Carolina (0-2, 0-1 American) @ USF (1-2, 0-1 American)
7 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: USF -4

CSD Pick: USF 29, East Carolina 25

#7 Miami (3-0, 2-0 ACC) @ #1 Clemson (3-0, 2-0 ACC)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -15.5

The game of the week might not be a game at all if Vegas is correct, as the #1 Clemson Tigers come into the ABC Primetime showdown as 15.5-point favorites against D’Eriq King and the Miami Hurricane. That line is bogus. The ‘Canes have been firing on all cylinders all year long, and they will come out to play in what will be the program’s biggest game in years. The ‘Canes are off a bye, Clemson looked shaky last week against Virginia, and I think this will be closer than 15.5… but Clemson will still win. The talent gap is just too wide. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne are the best QB/RB duo in the nation, and they will lead the Tigers to a win, but again, closer than the experts think.

CSD Pick: Clemson 38, Miami 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Miami +15.5

Florida State (1-2, 0-2 ACC) @ #5 Notre Dame (2-0, 1-0 ACC)
7:30 PM ET, NBC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -21.5

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 37, Florida State 17

UTEP (3-1) @ Louisiana Tech (2-1, 1-0 C-USA)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech -15

Louisiana Tech has been one of the more overrated teams in the country this year. The Bulldogs were awesome in 2019, but lost almost their entire starting lineup from last year’s team. A UTEP team on the upswing should easily cover 15.

CSD Pick: Louisiana Tech 31, UTEP 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – UTEP +15

Marshall (2-0) @ WKU (1-2, 1-0 C-USA)
7:30 PM ET, FSN/Stadium
Vegas Line: Marshall -4.5

Marshall will have a fire lit under them after being dropped from the AP Top 25 despite not losing a game. Expect the Thundering Herd to knock off their C-USA East rivals and continue to win in the leadup to their eventual showdown with UAB.

CSD Pick: Marshall 31, WKU 20

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Marshall -4.5

Mississippi State (1-1 SEC) @ Kentucky (0-2 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Kentucky -2

Kentucky is a hell of a lot better than their 0-2 record indicates. The Wildcats are a solid squad that can run the ball among the best in the country, and while the pass defense is a concern, especially against Mississippi State, this UK team is just too good to start 0-3. I’ll take the ‘Cats.

CSD Pick: Kentucky 33, Mississippi State 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Kentucky -2

Charlotte (0-2, 0-1 C-USA) @ North Texas (1-2, 0-1 C-USA)
8 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Charlotte -2.5

I love the framework of this Charlotte team, and giving just 2.5 points against a North Texas squad that may be the worst in the nation is an opportunity too good to pass up.

CSD Pick: Charlotte 36, North Texas 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Charlotte -2.5

After plummeting following a loss to Mississippi State, LSU has returned to the top ten as almost every single team in front of them underperformed expectations. Even Oklahoma, which lost to Iowa State, underperformed expectations by a smaller margin than many similarly rated teams (UCF, Texas, North Carolina) and thus don’t drop at all. Check out the rankings here!

A note, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season, even if a team continues to lose (see: Oklahoma). Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily.

Rank	Team	Conf	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	1	0
2	Georgia	SEC	1	1
3	Clemson	ACC	-2	-1
4	Notre Dame	ACC	2	6
5	Florida	SEC	-1	0
6	Miami (FL)	ACC	3	16
7	Auburn	SEC	-2	1
8	Louisiana State	SEC	9	-1
9	Texas A&M	SEC	-2	-3
10	Oklahoma	Big 12	0	-6
11	Iowa State	Big 12	7	4
12	North Carolina	ACC	-4	0
13	Mississippi	SEC	8	11
14	Kentucky	SEC	-1	6
15	Tennessee	SEC	1	1
16	South Carolina	SEC	9	14
17	Oklahoma State	Big 12	5	-6
18	Brigham Young	Ind	6	22
19	Texas Christian	Big 12	13	7
20	Virginia Tech	ACC	-6	-7
21	Virginia	ACC	8	7
22	Cincinnati	AAC	-3	-8
23	Texas	Big 12	-12	-14
24	Tulsa	AAC	23	33
25	West Virginia	Big 12	3	9
26	Louisville	ACC	0	-8
27	Memphis	AAC	-7	-8
28	North Carolina State	ACC	10	10
29	Southern Methodist	AAC	14	2
30	Pittsburgh	ACC	-7	-5
31	Wake Forest	ACC	2	4
32	Central Florida	AAC	-20	-15
33	Mississippi State	SEC	-18	-1
34	Missouri	SEC	0	2
35	Baylor	Big 12	-5	-12
36	Arkansas	SEC	16	15
37	Kansas State	Big 12	-6	-8
38	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-11	3
39	Marshall	CUSA	-3	11
40	Texas Tech	Big 12	1	-1
41	Houston	AAC	-4	-4
42	Boston College	ACC	6	0
43	Georgia Tech	ACC	-3	2
44	Syracuse	ACC	-2	4
45	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-1	-18
46	Florida State	ACC	-11	-25
47	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-1	-14
48	Duke	ACC	7	-4
49	Tulane	AAC	0	-2
50	Georgia State	Sun Belt	9	14
51	Army	Ind	-6	11
52	Temple	AAC	-2	-3
53	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	13	16
54	Charlotte	CUSA	6	2
55	Texas State	Sun Belt	1	20
56	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-17	-1
57	Vanderbilt	SEC	-3	4
58	South Florida	AAC	6	1
59	South Alabama	Sun Belt	2	13
60	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-7	-8
61	Troy	Sun Belt	2	4
62	Florida International	CUSA	3	6
63	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-5	-5
64	East Carolina	AAC	-7	-4
65	Navy	AAC	-14	-22
66	Liberty	Ind	1	4
67	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-5	-21
68	Rice	CUSA	0	-2
69	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	3	-6
70	Kansas	Big 12	-1	-3
71	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-1	-17
72	North Texas	CUSA	2	1
73	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-2	-20
74	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-1	2
75	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	0	-4
76	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	0	-2

Winner: Georgia QB Stetson Bennett

We came into the season hyping Jamie Newman and JT Daniels, even D’Wan Mathis to an extent, but the spring #4, Stetson Bennett, has been aces through two games. Bennett led the Dawgs to a 27-6 win over a top-ten Auburn team on Saturday. Bennett is a Georgia QB, very much in the Jake Fromm prototype, so he won’t be the offense-changer Newman was expected to be, but he’s good, and he can lead this Georgia team to the College Football Playoff.

Winner: Tulsa

After Tulsa took College Football Playoff darkhorse Oklahoma State to the wire in their first game, the big takeaway was that the Pokes might not be very good. It turns out what we should’ve taken away is that this Tulsa team might be a contender in the AAC. The Golden Hurricane knocked off UCF for the fourth straight time on Saturday, breaking the Golden Knights’ long home winning streak. With Cincinnati in two weeks, we’ll see if this really is a potential AAC champion.

Loser: The Big 12

Oklahoma lost two games in a row for the first time since 1998, Texas lost to TCU, 2019 Big 12 runner-up Baylor lost to West Virginia. It was a rough day for the conference, whose best team is Oklahoma State… probably? The Pokes are solid, but not nearly good enough to run the table. I think the Big 12’s playoff hopes are dwindling.

Loser: The State of Texas (sans SMU)

Excluding the intra-state TCU vs Texas matchup, the Lone Star State’s College Football teams went 1-6 on Saturday. Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M got blown out by Alabama, Texas Tech, Baylor, UTSA, and Abilene Christian all lost, even a North Texas squad that looked to have some potential came up short against a bad Southern Miss team. Only Sonny Dykes’ SMU Mustangs carried the day, knocking off #25 Memphis 30-27.

Winner: Alabama QB Mac Jones

Tua Tagovailoa’s replacement didn’t have the same hype, but he’s been dynamite. Jones threw for 435 yards and four touchdowns against Texas A&M on Saturday, and the Tide look to be a favorite to make the College Football Playoff yet again.

Loser: Auburn QB Bo Nix

I’ve been a Bo Nix hater since the start, the Auburn QB has flashed, but is largely too inconsistent to ever be counted on as a National Title level QB. He proved it again on Saturday. After a good start to the year against Kentucky, Nix was 3/18 on passes of over 10 yards against Georgia according to an analysis done by Pro Football Focus. Ouch.

Winner: Arkansas

For the first time since October of 2017, three years ago, Arkansas beat a Power Five team, and at that, it was a ranked team, as the Razorbacks took down Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs, 21-14. WPS.

Loser: The Group of Five’s Playoff Chances

It seemed like this could be the year, with two power conferences opting out. Then the Big Ten decided to come back. The Pac-12 followed. Now, the G5 school with the most name recognition and talent, UCF, is out. Cincinnati is good, but without an unbeaten foe to go after and no power five non-conference games, it isn’t happening. The dream will have to wait a little longer.

Winner: BYU QB Zach Wilson

Wilson has been electric through three games, and his Cougars have a great shot to run the table and make a New Year’s Six bowl for the first time in program history. The QB has been the best in the G5 by a wide margin and should earn some Heisman hype.

Loser: North Dakota State QB Trey Lance

North Dakota State decided to play one game this fall, and highly touted NFL draft prospect Trey Lance got his chance to shine against Central Arkansas. He looked… fine; winning the game and making some plays with his feet but throwing his first career interception and plenty of inaccurate throws. Expect Lance to slide down NFL draft boards in the coming days.

Winner: SMU

The Ponies became the only 4-0 team in the country with a late 30-27 win over then-#25 Memphis on Saturday, and they look to be real contenders in the American this year. Sonny Dykes has had an awesome start to his tenure in Dallas.

Winner: Air Force

The Falcons have two weeks off before Moutain West play begins October 24th, but they got a nice tune-up on Saturday. Scratch that. They dominated Navy. Like, straight ran them out of the yard. The Falcons picked up their first win of the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy Series, a 40-7 win over the Midshipmen, who have had a crazy up-and-down year to date.

Loser: ULM

The Warhawks lost to a UTEP team thought to be the worst in the country last week, but this week might have been even worse, as driving, down five against Georgia Southern, ULM QB Colby Suits was stopped just shy of the goal line with no timeouts, time expired, and the WarHawks fell to 0-4. Heartbreaking.

Big Ten and Pac-12 teams (along with Mountain West teams, MAC teams, and UMass) are now eligible for the AP top 25, but many are curious as to what the rankings would look like without the teams that haven’t played yet. Below you will find this week’s AP top 25 without such teams.

1. Clemson (NC)
2. Alabama (NC)
3. Georgia (+1)
4. Florida (-1)
5. Notre Dame (NC)
6. Miami (+1)
7. North Carolina (+3)
8. Oklahoma State (+6)
9. Cincinnati (+3)
10. Auburn (-4)
11. Tennessee (+6)
12. BYU (+6)
13. LSU (+3)
14. SMU (+10)
15. Virginia Tech (+6)
16. Texas A&M (-5)
17. Texas (-9)
18. Louisiana (+4)
19. Iowa State (NEW)
20. Kansas State (+3)
21. Mississippi State (-8)
22. UCF (-13)
23. TCU (NEW)
24. Marshall (+1)
25. Tulsa (NEW)
    

Dropped Out: #15 Oklahoma, #19 Pitt, #20 Memphis

After the SEC kicked off their season last week, they will take center stage once again as #13 Texas A&M will take on #2 Alabama and #7 Auburn will take on #4 Georgia. Also on the docket:

• Ole Miss and Kentucky square off after dropping games to top-ten foes in their openers, both looking to avoid an 0-2 start
• #18 Oklahoma tries to rebound from last week’s loss as they travel to Ames to face Iowa State
• #1 Clemson gets their first test of the year against unbeaten Virginia
• After a close scare last week, #9 Texas looks to get things back on track against TCU
• #21 Tennessee will try to hold onto their spot in the crowded top 25 against Missouri
• Will Muschamp will try to get one over on his former employer as South Carolina takes on #3 Florida
• A showdown between the #3 and #4 in the American as #25 Memphis takes on SMU

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 64-15 (81%)
ATS Best Bets: 15-4 (+NINE UNITS!!!)
ATS Total: 43-32-4
Last Week
Straight Up: 26-4 (87%)
ATS Best Bets: 5-1 (!!!)
ATS Total: 20-7-3 (!!!)

Best Bets

Arkansas State (-3) @ Coastal Carolina – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
#13 Texas A&M (+17.5) @ #2 Alabama – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
#25 Memphis (-2.5) @ SMU – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Virginia Tech (-9.5) @ Duke – 4 PM ET, ACC Network
Navy (+2) @ Air Force – 6 PM ET, CBSSN
Georgia Southern (-15.5) @ ULM – 7 PM ET, ESPN+
Virginia (+30.5) @ #1 Clemson – 8 PM ET, ACC Network

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Friday, October 2nd

Campbell (0-3) @ Wake Forest (0-2)
7 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Wake Forest -34.5

CSD Pick: Wake Forest 35, Campbell 5

Louisiana Tech (2-0) @ #22 BYU (2-0)
9 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: BYU -24

CSD Pick: BYU 38, Louisiana Tech 15

Saturday, October 3rd

South Carolina (0-1 SEC) @ #3 Florida (1-0 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -18.5

South Carolina may have come up short against Tennessee in their season opener, but they looked great in the process, narrowly falling 31-27 to the then-#16 Volunteers, and moving into the CSD Prime computer model top 25. The Gamecocks aren’t going to beat Florida on the road here, the Gators are a legit top-five team, but don’t be surprised if this is closer than the experts think.

CSD Pick: Florida 31, South Carolina 15

TCU (0-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ #9 Texas (2-0, 1-0 Big 12)

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Texas -13

Texas *really* struggled last week against Texas Tech, needing overtime to beat a Red Raider team that could barely get by Houston Baptist. On the other side, TCU found their quarterback. Max Duggan didn’t start, but he looked great in relief after being cleared to play following a heart diagnosis that put his season in doubt. Texas is more talented here, and they’re at home, but don’t be surprised if this is close down to the wire.

CSD Pick: Texas 32, TCU 21

Missouri (0-1 SEC) @ #21 Tennessee (1-0 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -10.5

Tennessee looked a little shaky last week against South Carolina, but they’ll have a chance to correct that as they take on 0-1 Missouri at home. Mizzou covered against Alabama last week, but with most of Eli Drinkwitz’s boys’ production in garbage time, it’s hard to tell how “real” the 19 points they scored were. I expect the Mizzou defense to be good, but the gap on offense is just too big. I’m taking Jarrett Guarantano and the Vols at home.

CSD Pick: Tennessee 25, Missouri 15

NC State (1-1, 1-1 ACC) @ #24 Pitt (3-0, 2-0 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pitt -14

CSD Pick: Pitt 25, NC State 15

East Carolina (0-1) @ Georgia State (0-1)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Georgia State -1

CSD Pick: Georgia State 30, East Carolina 28

Arkansas State (1-1) @ Coastal Carolina (2-0)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -3

What may be a pivotal game in the Sun Belt race will get national attention in the noon slot. Both of these teams made headlines for beating Big 12 foes earlier this year, and while Arkansas State is the team with the loss and on the road, they are just a much more talented team than the Chanticleers. Arkansas State WR Jonathan Adams is great, and Vidal Scott is a monstrous presence off the edge. The Red Wolves should easily cover three.

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 33, Coastal Carolina 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Arkansas State -3

Baylor (1-0, 1-0 Big 12) @ West Virginia (1-1, 0-1 Big 12)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Baylor -3

CSD Pick: West Virginia 23, Baylor 22

UTSA (3-0, 1-0 C-USA) @ UAB (2-1)
12:30 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: UAB –18.5

CSD Pick: UAB 34, UTSA 10

North Alabama @ Liberty (2-0)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -30.5

CSD Pick: Liberty 45, North Alabama 13

Abilene Christian (0-1) @ Army (2-1)
1:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -31

CSD Pick: Army 43, Abilene Christian 14

#13 Texas A&M (1-0 SEC) @ #2 Alabama (1-0 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama -17.5

So…. yeah. I’ve been high on Texas A&M all offseason, had them ranked 6th in the preseason, called them a playoff contender, and they go out in their first game and struggle mightily with a Vanderbilt team that might not win a game this year. The final score was 17-12. Ok. So that’s not great. Especially not for a team that’s supposed to be an offensive juggernaut, but these are the types of kinks you work out in week one.

The Crimson Tide looked great in their first game, there were some holes on defense, Malachi Moore struggled, but the offense was superb. QB Mac Jones had the performance of the week at the QB spot, earning a 93.4 grade from PFF; Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris also all impressed. I mean, Alabama is going to be good this year, not necessarily because they’ll be “playing angry” like the media narrative, but mostly because this is just a really good group of guys. That being said, I think A&M covers here. Kellen Mond played the worst game of his life against Arkansas, and he will be out to prove week one was an aberration, and so, stubbornly, I’ll take the Aggies to cover the 17.5

CSD Pick: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Texas A&M +17.5

#12 North Carolina (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ Boston College (2-0, 1-0 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: North Carolina -11.5

CSD Pick: North Carolina 37, Boston College 24

USF (1-1) @ #15 Cincinnati (2-0)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -21.5

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 35, USF 14

#17 Oklahoma State (2-0, 1-0 Big 12) @ Kansas (0-2, 0-1 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State –21

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 38, Kansas 14

#25 Memphis (1-0) @ SMU (3-0)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Memphis -2.5

Memphis is dealing with the aftermath of a COVID outbreak on the team, but unless half the team is out, there is no way the line should be this low. I’ve exploited Vegas overreacting to COVID outbreaks in the past, including with Louisiana Tech and Virginia Tech in recent weeks, and I think this is another repeat. QB Brady White will be great for Memphis, and the Tigers will roll, but the real winners will be the viewers. These two teams had an epic 54-48 shootout last year.

CSD Pick: Memphis 43, SMU 33

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Memphis -2.5

Texas Tech (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ Kansas State (1-1, 1-0 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Kansas State -3

CSD Pick: Kansas State 34, Texas Tech 29

Charlotte (0-1) @ Florida Atlantic
4 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -7

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 35, Charlotte 30

Virginia Tech (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ Duke (0-3, 0-3 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -9.5

What?? This line is insane. Jump on it before it moves. Duke is the worst team in the ACC, one that just turned the ball over seven times against Virginia. Virginia Tech is a top-15 team in the country in my estimation. I jumped all over VT -7 against NC State last week, and the Hokies won by triple that, expect a similar result here.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 36, Duke 18

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia Tech -9.5

Ole Miss (0-1 SEC) @ Kentucky (0-1 SEC)

4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Kentucky -7

Both of these teams dropped their openers to top-ten foes and need a victory to avoid an 0-2 start to the year, so the stakes are very high in this one. Ole Miss’ offense, especially the passing game, looked awesome against Florida, but the defense just wasn’t there. Kentucky doesn’t have that issue. The Wildcats are a well-rounded, a fundamentally solid team, and they are at home. They should pick up the win here, but an upset is a real possibility. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral was bonkers in the opener.

CSD Pick: Kentucky 34, Ole Miss 28

Jacksonville State @ Florida State (0-2)
4 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Florida State -26.5

CSD Pick: Florida State 38, Jacksonville State 11

WKU (0-2) @ Middle Tennessee (0-3, 0-1 C-USA)
5 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: WKU -7

CSD Pick: WKU 30, Middle Tennessee 25

Navy (1-1) @ Air Force
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Air Force -2

Air Force will return earlier than the rest of the MWC as they take on rival Navy here. The Falcons won’t have their QB here, and they’re top returning receiver had three catches last year, so the passing game will be non-existent. I don’t expect either of these teams to be good this year, but I’ll take Navy, the devil I know, plus the points.

CSD Pick: Navy 25, Air Force 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Navy +2

Georgia Southern (1-1, 0-1 Sun Belt) @ ULM (0-3, 0-1 Sun Belt)
7 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -15.5

ULM is perhaps the worst FBS team in the country, while Georgia Southern almost upset a top-25 team last week. Eagles QB Shai Werts is a star, and 15.5 points is much too short of a line. Werts and company should easily cover that number and pick up their first Sun Belt victory this year.

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 37, ULM 15

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Georgia Southern -15.5

#7 Auburn (1-0, 1-0 SEC) @ #4 Georgia (1-0, 1-0 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Georgia -7

Ok, so, I like Georgia here. The defense is amazing, maybe the best in the country. Richard LeCounte is a star, they are at home, BUT. It is tough to pick a team when I have no idea who the quarterback will be. Jamie Newman opted out before the season, and replacement D’Wan Mathis wasn’t good in the opener, he got benched. In came Stetson Bennett (who was fourth on the depth chart in the summer), who rocked, throwing for 211 yards and two touchdowns. So, you would think Bennett gets the nod this week? Maybe not, as USC transfer JT Daniels has been medically cleared to play.

I like Bennett better than Daniels personally, but the Dawgs still haven’t said who is playing, or if they’ll rotate between the two (or 3)! I’m still not sold on Bo Nix throwing against elite SEC defenses like Georgia and for that reason, I’m taking UGA, but, for the love of god Kirby Smart, pick a QB.

CSD Pick: Georgia 27, Auburn 21

Tulsa (0-1) @ #11 UCF (2-0, 1-0 American)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: UCF -21

CSD Pick: UCF 44, Tulsa 26

Arkansas (0-1 SEC) @ #16 Mississippi State (1-0 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Mississippi State -17.5

CSD Pick: Mississippi State 40, Arkansas 19

#18 Oklahoma (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ Iowa State (1-1, 1-0 Big 12)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -8.5

Oklahoma, after dropping their Big 12 opener to Kansas State last week, needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They take on an Iowa State team not unfamiliar with embarrassing losses, the Cyclones were the biggest casualty of week two, they lost to Louisiana, 31-14.

I like this Iowa State team more than most, but Lincoln Riley is too good of a coach to lose two in a row. He will have his guys fired up and ready to go, QB Spencer Rattler will return to the prospect he’s touted as being, and the Sooners will get things back on track.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 28

#20 LSU (0-1 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-1 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: LSU -20.5

CSD Pick: LSU 37, Vanderbilt 16

Southern Miss (0-3, 0-1 C-USA) @ North Texas (1-1)
7:30 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: North Texas -1.5

CSD Pick: Southern Miss 32, North Texas 31

Virginia (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ #1 Clemson (2-0, 1-0 ACC)

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Clemson -30.5

You don’t need me to tell you how good Clemson is. QB Trevor Lawrence is the best player in the country, DT Jordan Williams and MLB James Skalski are All-American contenders, the offensive line is great, this is the best team in the country, and they are beating Virginia at home. Going into any more depth on that would be boring, so instead, I’ll focus on why I think Virginia will cover the massive 30.5-point spread.

The Cavaliers lost star Bryce Perkins coming into this year, but new QB Brennan Armstrong looks to be a better passer than Perkins by a significant margin and RB Wayne Taulapapa seems to have finally stepped into a true #1 role. The linebacking corps, with Nick Jackson, Zane Zandier, and Charles Snowden, competes with the best in the conference, and I think the Cavs’ safety duo can keep Lawrence from going completely insane. This Virginia team is good, and while they’ll lose, they shouldn’t be underdogs by this margin.

CSD Pick: Clemson 43, Virginia 19

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia +30.5

Winner: Mississippi State QB KJ Costello

Saturday was Mississipi State quarterback KJ Costello’s first game in the SEC. He broke the SEC passing record. Under Mike Leach’s air raid system, Costello balled out for 623 yards and five touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ 44-34 win over #6 LSU. There were some problems with accuracy at times, but Costello looks to be a star.

Loser: The Big 12

The conference, which has already looked poor with three teams dropping non-con matchups vs Sun Belt teams, took another hit, as conference favorite Oklahoma lost to Kansas State, and #2 Texas needed overtime to beat a Texas Tech team that almost lost to Houston Baptist. Even in a season where the Pac-12 or Big Ten champ may play just five or six games factoring in cancellations, the Big 12 may still be left out of the playoff.

Winner: UCF (or Cincinnati)’s Playoff Chances

The Golden Knights are projected to finish the 2020 season with an 8-1 record by the CSD Prime computer model. No team in the country is projected to go undefeated in more than 50% of simulations as of now, but UCF is the fourth most likely team to do it, behind BYU, Clemson, and Marshall. That means all UCF has to do is overperform expectations by one game, win the AAC title game, and they are unbeaten for the third time in four years.

Now, it’s still a tough road, but with Oklahoma losing and the Big Ten/Pac-12 playing such shortened seasons, a group of five playoff bid is likelier than ever. Very, very unlikely, but likelier than ever. And that’s if the playoff doesn’t expand, which feels like a very real possibility that is rarely mentioned.

Winner: Alabama QB Mac Jones

Mac Jones tightened his grip on Alabama’s starting QB job on Saturday against Missouri, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns on just 24 throws in the Tide’s season-opening victory. Five-star freshman Bryce Young threw for just over 50 yards in relief.

Loser: Florida State

Its been a bad few years in Tallahassee, but Saturday’s 52-10 loss to rival Miami in primetime may be a new low point. Granted, head coach Mike Norvell was out with COVID, but that rivalry game should be a lot closer than that. Right now, the CSD Prime model rates Florida State’s average projected record at 4-7, meaning a third straight losing season is much more likely than not.

Winner: Virginia Tech

The Hokies were down 23 players and two coaches against NC State on Saturday and still rolled, crushing the 1-0 Wolfpack 45-24. This team is a lot more experienced than the 2019 squad that lost to Virginia for the first time in a decade and a half, and I expect them to compete for the #2 spot in the ACC with Notre Dame, North Carolina, an Miami.

Loser: Georgia and Texas A&M’s Offenses

Two teams that I figured could be national title dark horses looked terrible on the offensive end on Saturday, combining for 12 first-half points. By midgame, Georgia was relegated to their summer depth chart’s #4 QB, Stetson Bennett, after Jamie Newman’s opt-out, JT Daniels’ injury, and D’Wan Mathis’ benching. He was thrust into the spotlight midgame, but Bennett looked much better than Mathis despite some mistakes, and the Bulldogs rallied to end up winning by a respectable margin. We’ll see if he can keep his job when JT Daniels is cleared to return.

Meanwhile, A&M fumbled four times and Kellen Mond added an interception for good measure against an Arkansas team that may go winless this year. The Aggies barely survived, 17-12. Yikes.

Winner(s): Florida QB Kyle Trask & Florida TE Kyle Pitts

Florida’s Kyle-to-Kyle connection was on fire on Saturday in a 51-35 victory over Ole Miss. Pitts caught eight passes for 170 yards and four touchdowns and looks to be the key to UF’s SEC title hope. Not to mention, Trask looked like he may be the best QB in the conference. Things are looking up in Gainesville.

Loser: UCF’s Penalties

The Golden Knights are talented enough that they manhandled East Carolina 51-28 despite it, but UCF racked up 19 penalties, good for 139 yards, including ten (!) in the first quarter. It’s fine against ECU, but against the American’s best, that isn’t going to fly.

Winner: UTEP

Over the past two years, UTEP won a combined two games. Four games into 2019 and the Miners have already won three. Granted, it was against two FCS teams and the worst team in FBS, but its progress nevertheless.

Loser: Georgia Tech

It’s still year two under the new system, granted, but its been a hard fall for the Yellow Jackets after the season-opening win over Florida State. Tech dropped their second game against UCF and then was throttled by Syracuse, 37-20. Freshman QB Jeff Sims threw four interceptions in the loss. The Yellow Jackets are now projected to go 4-7 (on average) in the CSD Prime model after a promising start.

Loser: Duke

After giving Notre Dame more fight than expected in week one, I had relatively high hopes for this Duke team, but against Virginia on Saturday, the Blue Devils looked atrocious. QB Chase Brice completed less than 50% of his passes and threw four interceptions. All in all, Duke finished with seven turnovers. Seven. David Cutcliffe’s squad is now rated out as the worst team in the conference by the CSD Prime model, with an average projected record of 2-9.

Winner: Louisiana K Nate Snyder

Louisiana kicker Nate Snyder has had a rough go of things to start 2020, he entered the Cajun’s week four game against Georgia Southern 1-for-4 on the year. He redeemed himself, though, nailing a 53-yarder to beat the Eagles, 20-18, keeping the Cajuns unbeaten.

Big Ten and Pac-12 teams (along with Mountain West teams, MAC teams, and UMass) were eligible for the AP top 25 for the first time since the preseason this week, but many are curious as to what the rankings would look like without the teams that haven’t played yet. Below you will find this week’s AP top 25 without such teams.

1) Clemson (NC)
2) Alabama (NC)
3) Florida (+2)
4) Georgia (NC)
5) Notre Dame (+2)
6) Auburn (+2)
7) Miami (+5)
8) Texas (NC)
9) UCF (+4)
10) North Carolina (+1)
11) Texas A&M (-1)
12) Cincinnati (+2)
13) Mississippi State (NEW)
14) Oklahoma State (+1)
15) Oklahoma (-12)
16) LSU (-10)
17) Tennessee (-1)
18) BYU (NC)
19) Pitt (+2)
20) Memphis (-3)
21) Virginia Tech (-1)
22) Louisiana (-3)
23) Kansas State (NEW)
24) SMU (NEW)
25) Marshall (NC)

Dropped Out: #22 Army, #23 Kentucky, #24 Pitt

Others receiving >10 points: Baylor, Virginia, Arkansas State