Category: EVERYTHING

South Region

The Pick

There almost isn’t another intelligent option in the South region. The #1 Alabama Crimson Tide are fresh off of an SEC Regular Season and Tournament Championship, winning games in the tournament by almost 18 points on average to quell any concerns about a downswing post-Brandon Miller controversy. The Tide boasts the best win of any team in the field (@ Houston) and should romp to a South region title.

The Alternative

The closest competitor is #2 Arizona, which will be one of the tallest teams in the tournament with Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. The Wildcats are also fresh off of a power conference tournament championship and play at a high pace with strong shooting numbers similar to Alabama. That being said, Tommy Lloyd’s group have taken puzzling losses to Utah, Washington State, and Stanford, and I just can’t justify putting them through to the final four.

The Sleepers

As for sleepers in the region, there are two that come to mind. #5 SDSU guard Matt Bradley is on fire right now, and the Aztecs have lost just twice in the past two months. Expect them to beat a #4 Virginia team struggling and now missing starting C Ben Vander Plas, although either SDSU or Virginia could give ‘Bama fits with their slow tempos. I also love Greg McDermott’s #6 Creighton team, which might be favored over #3 Baylor in a potential second-round matchup. The Bears come into the tournament off of back-to-back losses.

The Upsets

As for upsets, I like #9 West Virginia over #8 Maryland and #10 Utah State over #7 Missouri, although both of those teams are actually Vegas favorites despite being higher seeds. Maryland has struggled away from home this year and West Virginia is better than their record indicates. Meanwhile, Missouri got a brutal draw in Utah State, which is a top-20 team in KenPom despite being a ten seed.

Midwest Region

The Pick

If you told me in December I would be picking #2 Texas to the Final Four, I would’ve thought you were crazy. Despite losing star head coach Chris Beard in the middle of the season, the Longhorns romped in Big 12 play, finishing second in the regular season and beating Kansas to win the Big 12 tournament. Marcus Carr has been shooting the lights out over the past month, and there is no ceiling to this team in March.

The Alternative

#1 Houston probably would have been my national champion pick a week ago, but a double-digit loss to Memphis in the AAC Title game and an injury to Marcus Sasser have scared me off a little. Sasser claims he will be 100% by tournament time, but a strain is the type of injury that can always be aggravated. That being said, between Sasser, Jarace Walker, and J’Wan Roberts, this team could absolutely win the national championship.

The Sleepers

Texas A&M. It’s that simple. The Aggies were absolutely wronged with a seven seed (in my view they should have been a five), and I likely would have picked them to the Sweet 16 were they seeded correctly. A&M has been one of the hottest teams in the country over the past three months and had a win over the #1 overall seed just two weeks ago. Looking elsewhere, I’d give a quick shout to #9 Auburn. The Tigers are incredibly talented but have just not lived up to their potential thus far, but often times those types of teams turn it up in March. Bruce Pearl’s team has taken Alabama to overtime on the road and beaten Tennessee within the past two weeks.

The Upsets

I of course have #9 Auburn over #8 Iowa in the first round, although that isn’t technically an upset by Vegas lines. As for a deeper upset, I have #12 Drake over #5 Miami in the first round, and even over #4 Indiana in the second round. The Bulldogs are 16-2 in their last 18 games, shoot the ball as well as anyone in the tournament, and are a top-50 defense. If you’re looking for one double-digit seed to take to the Sweet 16, pick Drake.

East Region

The Pick

#5 Duke is finally healthy, and they look great. The Blue Devils have won eight games in a row, and I just watched them win the ACC Tournament in Greensboro. Kyle Filipowski is an All-American, Dereck Lively II is a beast inside when he’s on, and this is the best Duke defense in years. Pair that with a relatively weak region, and I think Jon Scheyer can make a run to the Final Four in year one.

The Alternative

Yea, I mean… it’s #1 Purdue. The Boilermakers won the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles, and boast the national player of the year in Zach Edey. That being said, I just think Duke is a pretty terrible matchup for Matt Painter’s squad. The Blue Devils are really good at getting foul calls inside, and Purdue’s guards have struggled with Edey off of the floor this year. That being said, Painter finally breaking through and making a Final Four would certainly not shock me.

The Sleepers

#6 Kentucky still boasts one of the strongest rosters in the country led by reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. Yes, the Wildcats got beaten twice by a Vanderbilt team down the stretch, but they won their other final five games, including wins vs Tennessee and @ Arkansas. Otherwise, we can’t count out #2 Marquette. The Golden Eagles have been disrespected all year and won the Big East regular season title by multiple games and the tournament title in an absolute romp. That being said, the struggles inside (#242 ORB%, #319 DRB%) mean they are a pretty terrible matchup for any of Kentucky, Duke, or Purdue, and because of that I don’t like Shaka Smart’s odds on a return trip to the final four.

The Upsets

I actually have no first-round upsets in the East. Two to look at would be #9 Florida Atlantic, which has lost just three games all year, and #10 USC, which boasts wins over Auburn and UCLA this season. That being said, #8 Memphis and #7 Michigan State are just too hot to pick against right now.

West Region

The Pick

There is no team playing better right now than #3 Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are fresh off of a 26-point rout over top-15 Saint Mary’s in the WCC Title game. Drew Timme is an All-American again, and the Bulldogs have wins @ Alabama and against Kentucky, Michigan State, and Xavier. Gonzaga is 38% from three over the past month and are led by a coach that has made multiple Final Fours.

The Alternative

UConn was a little disrespected as a four-seed. The Huskies rank fourth nationally in KenPom and have beaten Alabama, Iowa State, Creighton, and Marquette. Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo are one of the best 1-2 combinations in the country.

The Sleepers

It feels wrong to list them as a sleeper, but #1 Kansas is actually the fourth highest-rated team in their own region per KenPom. The Jayhawks have the highest number of Q1 wins ever, but they’ve also lost seven times this season. PG Dajuan Harris Jr. has been inconsistent at times, and I worry about Kansas matching up against a talented big like UConn’s Sanogo. Finally, we must mention #2 UCLA. The Bruins were Pac-12 regular season champions but fell in the Pac-12 tournament title game to Arizona after losing DPOY candidate Jaylen Clark. Jamie Jaquez Jr. is good enough to carry them to the Sweet 16, but I struggle to pick a team missing such an important piece to make it further than that.

The Upsets

#9 Illinois is worth a mention, but the Illini struggle to shoot and I like #8 Arkansas in the first round with their pair of lottery picks. As for a deeper upset, #12 VCU is fresh off of winning the A-10 regular season and tournament title. Ace Baldwin is one of the most valuable players at the mid-major level, and the Rams have won nine in a row. That being said, being matched up with the #11 KenPom team in the first round is a brutal draw.

My National Champion

There is no better value pick than Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have looked like the best team in the country over the past six weeks and have been picked by just 4.3% of brackets per ESPN, and they have a double-digit road win over the very team I have them facing in the title game. That being said, the defense is a worry, it would be the worst defense to win the national championship in the KenPom era. I just can’t pick against Alabama right now. The Tide get their revenge in Houston.

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game
↑ – Moved Up
↓ – Moved Down
* – New to field

One Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue
Two Seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Gonzaga
Three Seeds: Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State, Connecticut
Four Seeds: Xavier, Tennessee, Virginia, Indiana
Five Seeds: Duke, San Diego State, Iowa State, Texas A&M
Six Seeds: TCU, Miami, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky
Seven Seeds: Missouri, Creighton, Northwestern, Michigan State
Eight Seeds: Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, Maryland, Memphis ↑
Nine Seeds: West Virginia ↓, Iowa, Illinois, Penn State ↑
Ten Seeds: Auburn ↓, Boise State, Utah State, USC
Eleven Seeds: Providence, Mississippi State, NC State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Arizona State
Twelve Seeds: Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, VCU
Thirteen Seeds: Kent State, Iona, Louisiana, Princeton*
Fourteen Seeds: Furman, UC Santa Barbara, Kennesaw State, Grand Canyon
Fifteen Seeds: Colgate, Montana State, Vermont, UNC-Asheville
Sixteen Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Howard, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, SE Missouri State, Farleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: Utah State, USC, Providence, Mississippi State
Last Four In: NC State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Arizona State
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Clemson
Next Fout Out: Oregon, Wisconsin, North Carolina, North Texas

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game
↑ – Moved Up
↓ – Moved Down
* – New to field

One Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue ↑
Two Seeds: UCLA ↓, Texas, Arizona, Gonzaga ↑
Three Seeds: Marquette, Baylor ↓, Kansas State, Connecticut
Four Seeds: Xavier, Tennessee, Virginia, Indiana
Five Seeds: San Diego State, Iowa State, Duke ↑, TCU
Six Seeds: Texas A&M, Miami ↓, Saint Mary’s, Kentucky
Seven Seeds: Creighton ↓, Missouri, Northwestern, Michigan State
Eight Seeds: Florida Atlantic, Arkansas, Maryland, West Virginia ↑
Nine Seeds: Memphis, Iowa ↓, Illinois, Auburn
Ten Seeds: Boise State, Penn State ↑, USC, Utah State ↑
Eleven Seeds: Providence ↓, Mississippi State, NC State ↓, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Arizona State
Twelve Seeds: Charleston, Oral Roberts, VCU, Drake
Thirteen Seeds: Kent State*, Yale, Iona, Louisiana ↑
Fourteen Seeds: Furman, UC Santa Barbara*, Kennesaw State, Grand Canyon*
Fifteen Seeds: Colgate, Montana State, Vermont, UNC-Asheville
Sixteen Seeds: Northern Kentucky, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Howard, SE Missouri State, Farleigh Dickinson, Texas Southern

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: USC, Utah State, Providence, Mississippi State
Last Four In: NC State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Arizona State
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, Nevada, Clemson
Next Fout Out: Oregon, North Carolina, Wisconsin, North Texas

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game
↑ – Moved Up
↓ – Moved Down
* – New to field

1 Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, UCLA
2 Seeds: Purdue, Texas, Arizona, Baylor
3 Seeds: Gonzaga, Marquette, Kansas State, Connecticut ↑
4 Seeds: Tennessee ↓, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia
5 Seeds: Miami, Iowa State, San Diego State, TCU ↑
6 Seeds: Saint Mary’s ↓, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Creighton
7 Seeds: Duke, Northwestern, Michigan State, Missouri ↑
8 Seeds: Maryland, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic ↑, Iowa ↓
9 Seeds: Illinois ↓, West Virginia, Memphis ↑, Auburn
10 Seeds: Boise State ↓, USC, NC State, Providence
11 Seeds: Utah State, Mississippi State, Penn State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Arizona State*
12 Seeds: Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake, VCU
13 Seeds: Toledo, Utah Valley, Yale, Iona
14 Seeds: Louisiana, Furman, UC Irvine, Kennesaw State
15 Seeds: Colgate, Montana State, Vermont, UNC-Asheville ↑
16 Seeds: Northern Kentucky*, Grambling, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Howard, Farleigh Dickinson, SE Missouri State

Dropped Out: Nevada, Youngstown State

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: NC State, Providence, Utah State, Mississippi State
Last Four In: Penn State, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Arizona State
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, Nevada, Clemson, Oregon
Next Four Out: North Texas, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, North Carolina

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game
↑ – Moved Up
↓ – Moved Down
* – New to field

1 Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue
2 Seeds: UCLA, Baylor, Texas, Arizona
3 Seeds: Kansas State, Marquette, Tennessee, Gonzaga
4 Seeds: Connecticut, Xavier, Virginia, Indiana
5 Seeds: TCU, Saint Mary’s, Miami, San Diego State
6 Seeds: Iowa State, Creighton, Kentucky ↑, Northwestern
7 Seeds: Texas A&M, Duke, Maryland ↓, Michigan State ↑
8 Seeds: Iowa, Illinois ↓, Arkansas, Missouri ↑
9 Seeds: Providence ↓, Florida Atlantic, Boise State ↑, Rutgers
10 Seeds: Memphis ↑, Pittsburgh, NC State, USC ↑
11 Seeds: Auburn ↓, Nevada ↓, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Wisconsin
12 Seeds: Charleston, Oral Roberts, VCU, Bradley
13 Seeds: Liberty, Southern Miss, Utah Valley, Toledo
14 Seeds: Iona, Yale, Furman, UC Irvine
15 Seeds: Colgate, Eastern Washington, Vermont, Youngstown State
16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Farleigh Dickinson, Grambling

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: NC State, USC, Auburn, Nevada
Last Four In: West Virginia, Mississippi State, Arizona State, Wisconsin
First Four Out: Utah State, North Carolina, Penn State, Michigan
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Clemson, New Mexico, Vanderbilt

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game
↑ – Moved Up
↓ – Moved Down
* – New to field

1 Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue
2 Seeds: UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Kansas State, Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga ↑
4 Seeds: Indiana, Connecticut, Xavier ↑, Virginia ↓
5 Seeds: Miami, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State ↑, TCU ↑
6 Seeds: Iowa State ↓, Creighton ↓, Maryland ↑, Northwestern
7 Seeds: Kentucky ↑, Duke ↑, Illinois ↓, Texas A&M
8 Seeds: Michigan State ↓, Providence ↓, Arkansas, Iowa
9 Seeds: Missouri, Rutgers, Florida Atlantic ↑, Nevada ↑
10 Seeds: Auburn ↓, NC State ↓, Pittsburgh, Boise State
11 Seeds: Memphis, USC, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Arizona State*
12 Seeds: Charleston, Oral Roberts, VCU, Bradley*
13 Seeds: Liberty, Southern Miss*, Utah Valley, Toledo*
14 Seeds: Iona, Yale, Furman*, UC Irvine
15 Seeds: Colgate, Eastern Washington ↓, Vermont, Youngstown State
16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Morehead State, Howard, Farleigh Dickinson, Grambling

Dropped Out: Oklahoma State, Drake, Marshall, Kent State, Samford, Alcorn State

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: Pittsburgh, Boise State, Memphis, USC
Last Four In: West Virginia, Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Arizona State
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Utah State, Michigan
Next Four Out: Clemson, Penn State, Texas Tech, Oregon

The committee loves the Big 12 and Indiana – UConn? Not so much. Here’s the updated bracketology after a busy week in college basketball.

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game
↑ – Moved Up
↓ – Moved Down
* – New to field

1 Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue
2 Seeds: UCLA, Texas, Arizona, Baylor
3 Seeds: Kansas State ↑, Marquette, Tennessee, Virginia
4 Seeds: Gonzaga ↓, Iowa State, UConn, Indiana ↑
5 Seeds: Miami, Xavier ↓, Saint Mary’s, Creighton
6 Seeds: San Diego State, Northwestern, TCU, Illinois
7 Seeds: Texas A&M ↑, Michigan State, Maryland, Providence ↑
8 Seeds: Duke, Arkansas ↑, Iowa ↓, Kentucky ↑
9 Seeds: Missouri ↓, Auburn ↓, NC State, Rutgers ↓
10 Seeds: Nevada ↓, Florida Atlantic ↓, Boise State, Pittsburgh
11 Seeds: Memphis, West Virginia ↓, Oklahoma State ↓, USC, Mississippi State, Wisconsin*
12 Seeds: Charleston, Oral Roberts, Drake ↑, VCU ↑
13 Seeds: Liberty ↓, Kent State, Marshall*, Utah Valley
14 Seeds: Iona, Yale, UC Irvine*, Eastern Washington ↑
15 Seeds: Colgate, Vermont, Samford*, Youngstown State
16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi*, Morehead State, Howard, Farleigh Dickinson, Alcorn State

Dropped Out: North Carolina, Southern Miss, UC Santa Barbara, Furman, Northwestern State

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: Boise State, Pittsburgh, Memphis, West Virginia
Last Four In: Oklahoma State, USC, Mississippi State, Wisconsin
First Four Out: Utah State, New Mexico, Penn State, Texas Tech
Next Four Out: North Carolina, Clemson, Michigan, Arizona State

With the NCAA’s annual top 16 bracket reveal coming tomorrow at 12:30 on CBS, I figured it was probably past time to get back into the swing of things and to take my best shot at predicting what the field may look like today.

One Seeds

Italicized – Play-in game

1 Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, Purdue
2 Seeds: UCLA, Texas, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Tennessee, Virginia, Marquette, Gonzaga
4 Seeds: Kansas State, UConn, Xavier, Iowa State
5 Seeds: Indiana, Miami, Saint Mary’s, Creighton
6 Seeds: San Diego State, TCU, Illinois, Northwestern
7 Seeds: Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland, Rutgers
8 Seeds: Duke, Missouri, Providence, Auburn
9 Seeds: NC State, Nevada, Oklahoma State, Florida Atlantic
10 Seeds: Arkansas, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Boise State
11 Seeds: Texas A&M, Memphis, Kentucky, USC, Mississippi State, North Carolina
12 Seeds: Oral Roberts, Charleston, Southern Miss, Liberty
13 Seeds: Kent State, Drake, VCU, Utah Valley
14 Seeds: Yale, UC Santa Barbara, Iona, Furman
15 Seeds: Colgate, Eastern Washington, Youngstown State, Vermont
16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Northwestern State, Morehead State, Howard, Farleigh Dickinson, Alcorn State

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: West Virginia, Boise State, Texas A&M, Memphis
Last Four In: Kentucky, USC, Mississippi State, North Carolina
First Four Out: Wisconsin, Clemson, New Mexico, Utah State
Next Four Out: Oregon, North Texas, Seton Hall, Arizona State

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game

1 Seeds: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Kansas
2 Seeds: Arizona, Tennessee, UCLA, Texas
3 Seeds: Alabama, Gonzaga, Arkansas, Virginia
4 Seeds: Duke, Baylor, Miami, Indiana
5 Seeds: West Virginia, Xavier, Ohio State, Auburn
6 Seeds: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Maryland, San Diego State
7 Seeds: New Mexico, Illinois, Iowa State, Virginia Tech
8 Seeds: Saint Mary’s, Kentucky, Missouri, Marquette
9 Seeds: Mississippi State, Memphis, TCU, Kansas State
10 Seeds: Utah State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic
11 Seeds: Creighton, Michigan State, Penn State, Utah, LSU, Rutgers
12 Seeds: Charleston, Sam Houston State, Kent State, Southern Miss
13 Seeds: Dayton, Iona, Bradley, Yale
14 Seeds: Oral Roberts, Liberty, UC Santa Barbara, UMass-Lowell
15 Seeds: Furman, Youngstown State, American, SIU-Edwardsville
16 Seeds: Longwood, Montana State, Northwestern State, Norfolk State, Grambling, Wagner,

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Creighton, Michigan State
Last Four In: Penn State, Utah, LSU, Rutgers
First Four Out: Providence, Arizona State, Northwestern, Oklahoma State
Next Four Out: UAB, UNLV, UCF, Wake Forest