My 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket
South Region
The Pick
There almost isn’t another intelligent option in the South region. The #1 Alabama Crimson Tide are fresh off of an SEC Regular Season and Tournament Championship, winning games in the tournament by almost 18 points on average to quell any concerns about a downswing post-Brandon Miller controversy. The Tide boasts the best win of any team in the field (@ Houston) and should romp to a South region title.
The Alternative
The closest competitor is #2 Arizona, which will be one of the tallest teams in the tournament with Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. The Wildcats are also fresh off of a power conference tournament championship and play at a high pace with strong shooting numbers similar to Alabama. That being said, Tommy Lloyd’s group have taken puzzling losses to Utah, Washington State, and Stanford, and I just can’t justify putting them through to the final four.
The Sleepers
As for sleepers in the region, there are two that come to mind. #5 SDSU guard Matt Bradley is on fire right now, and the Aztecs have lost just twice in the past two months. Expect them to beat a #4 Virginia team struggling and now missing starting C Ben Vander Plas, although either SDSU or Virginia could give ‘Bama fits with their slow tempos. I also love Greg McDermott’s #6 Creighton team, which might be favored over #3 Baylor in a potential second-round matchup. The Bears come into the tournament off of back-to-back losses.
The Upsets
As for upsets, I like #9 West Virginia over #8 Maryland and #10 Utah State over #7 Missouri, although both of those teams are actually Vegas favorites despite being higher seeds. Maryland has struggled away from home this year and West Virginia is better than their record indicates. Meanwhile, Missouri got a brutal draw in Utah State, which is a top-20 team in KenPom despite being a ten seed.
Midwest Region
The Pick
If you told me in December I would be picking #2 Texas to the Final Four, I would’ve thought you were crazy. Despite losing star head coach Chris Beard in the middle of the season, the Longhorns romped in Big 12 play, finishing second in the regular season and beating Kansas to win the Big 12 tournament. Marcus Carr has been shooting the lights out over the past month, and there is no ceiling to this team in March.
The Alternative
#1 Houston probably would have been my national champion pick a week ago, but a double-digit loss to Memphis in the AAC Title game and an injury to Marcus Sasser have scared me off a little. Sasser claims he will be 100% by tournament time, but a strain is the type of injury that can always be aggravated. That being said, between Sasser, Jarace Walker, and J’Wan Roberts, this team could absolutely win the national championship.
The Sleepers
Texas A&M. It’s that simple. The Aggies were absolutely wronged with a seven seed (in my view they should have been a five), and I likely would have picked them to the Sweet 16 were they seeded correctly. A&M has been one of the hottest teams in the country over the past three months and had a win over the #1 overall seed just two weeks ago. Looking elsewhere, I’d give a quick shout to #9 Auburn. The Tigers are incredibly talented but have just not lived up to their potential thus far, but often times those types of teams turn it up in March. Bruce Pearl’s team has taken Alabama to overtime on the road and beaten Tennessee within the past two weeks.
The Upsets
I of course have #9 Auburn over #8 Iowa in the first round, although that isn’t technically an upset by Vegas lines. As for a deeper upset, I have #12 Drake over #5 Miami in the first round, and even over #4 Indiana in the second round. The Bulldogs are 16-2 in their last 18 games, shoot the ball as well as anyone in the tournament, and are a top-50 defense. If you’re looking for one double-digit seed to take to the Sweet 16, pick Drake.
East Region
The Pick
#5 Duke is finally healthy, and they look great. The Blue Devils have won eight games in a row, and I just watched them win the ACC Tournament in Greensboro. Kyle Filipowski is an All-American, Dereck Lively II is a beast inside when he’s on, and this is the best Duke defense in years. Pair that with a relatively weak region, and I think Jon Scheyer can make a run to the Final Four in year one.
The Alternative
Yea, I mean… it’s #1 Purdue. The Boilermakers won the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles, and boast the national player of the year in Zach Edey. That being said, I just think Duke is a pretty terrible matchup for Matt Painter’s squad. The Blue Devils are really good at getting foul calls inside, and Purdue’s guards have struggled with Edey off of the floor this year. That being said, Painter finally breaking through and making a Final Four would certainly not shock me.
The Sleepers
#6 Kentucky still boasts one of the strongest rosters in the country led by reigning National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe. Yes, the Wildcats got beaten twice by a Vanderbilt team down the stretch, but they won their other final five games, including wins vs Tennessee and @ Arkansas. Otherwise, we can’t count out #2 Marquette. The Golden Eagles have been disrespected all year and won the Big East regular season title by multiple games and the tournament title in an absolute romp. That being said, the struggles inside (#242 ORB%, #319 DRB%) mean they are a pretty terrible matchup for any of Kentucky, Duke, or Purdue, and because of that I don’t like Shaka Smart’s odds on a return trip to the final four.
The Upsets
I actually have no first-round upsets in the East. Two to look at would be #9 Florida Atlantic, which has lost just three games all year, and #10 USC, which boasts wins over Auburn and UCLA this season. That being said, #8 Memphis and #7 Michigan State are just too hot to pick against right now.
West Region
The Pick
There is no team playing better right now than #3 Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are fresh off of a 26-point rout over top-15 Saint Mary’s in the WCC Title game. Drew Timme is an All-American again, and the Bulldogs have wins @ Alabama and against Kentucky, Michigan State, and Xavier. Gonzaga is 38% from three over the past month and are led by a coach that has made multiple Final Fours.
The Alternative
UConn was a little disrespected as a four-seed. The Huskies rank fourth nationally in KenPom and have beaten Alabama, Iowa State, Creighton, and Marquette. Jordan Hawkins and Adama Sanogo are one of the best 1-2 combinations in the country.
The Sleepers
It feels wrong to list them as a sleeper, but #1 Kansas is actually the fourth highest-rated team in their own region per KenPom. The Jayhawks have the highest number of Q1 wins ever, but they’ve also lost seven times this season. PG Dajuan Harris Jr. has been inconsistent at times, and I worry about Kansas matching up against a talented big like UConn’s Sanogo. Finally, we must mention #2 UCLA. The Bruins were Pac-12 regular season champions but fell in the Pac-12 tournament title game to Arizona after losing DPOY candidate Jaylen Clark. Jamie Jaquez Jr. is good enough to carry them to the Sweet 16, but I struggle to pick a team missing such an important piece to make it further than that.
The Upsets
#9 Illinois is worth a mention, but the Illini struggle to shoot and I like #8 Arkansas in the first round with their pair of lottery picks. As for a deeper upset, #12 VCU is fresh off of winning the A-10 regular season and tournament title. Ace Baldwin is one of the most valuable players at the mid-major level, and the Rams have won nine in a row. That being said, being matched up with the #11 KenPom team in the first round is a brutal draw.
My National Champion
There is no better value pick than Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have looked like the best team in the country over the past six weeks and have been picked by just 4.3% of brackets per ESPN, and they have a double-digit road win over the very team I have them facing in the title game. That being said, the defense is a worry, it would be the worst defense to win the national championship in the KenPom era. I just can’t pick against Alabama right now. The Tide get their revenge in Houston.