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LIVE UPDATES – Start at 7PM ET

10:52PM ET – CALL – Miller wins WV-03 GOP Primary, will face Ojeda in general

It took a lot longer than I expected, but the pre-election front runner, Carol Miller is going to beat Delegate Ruper Phillips by about a 1,000-vote margin. This concludes our coverage for the night, thanks for following along!

10:50PM ET – Votes slowly trickling in

With 6% of precincts remaining, Miller leads Phillips by just 268 votes, this race is still too close to call.

10:28PM ET – Miller into 1st

It took a lot longer than expected, but West Virginia House of Delegates Majority Whip Carol Miller is into 1st place with 91% of the vote in. Miller sits at 7,236 votes, while delegates Ruper Phillips and Marty Gearheart stand at 6,824 and 6,566 each.

10:25PM ET – Carol Miller into 2nd, 150 votes seperate 1st and 3rd

Rupert Phillips – 6,473 votes (20.6%)
Carol Miller – 6,421 (20.5%)
Marty Gearheart – 6,321 (20.2%)

The favorite, Carol Miller, who has been in third all night, is up to 2nd place with just 52 votes separating her and Rupert Phillips. This is with 15% of the vote remaining.

10:05PM ET – 55-vote difference in the final race of the day

State Delegate Rupert Phillips sits at 6,299 votes
State Delegate Marty Gearheart sits at 6,240 votes
West Virginia House of Delegates Majority Whip Carol Miller sits at 5,976 votes

10PM ET – CALL – First Incumbent to fall of the 2018 cycle

With a 2.2% lead and just 2% remaining, pastor and anti-gay rights activist Mark Harris has upset incumbent Republican representative Robert Pittenger in the North Carolina 9th primary. He will go on to face Dan McCready in the General.

9:55PM ET – Down to the wire with two races to go

WV-03 (R) – 71% in

Rubert Phillips – 20.8%
Marty Gearheart – 20.4%
Carol Miller – 20.2%
Conrad Lucas – 16.4%

NC-09 (R) – 93% in 

Mark Harris – 48.5%
Robert Pittenger (incumbent) – 46.3%

9:49PM ET – CALL – Patrick Morrisey headed to face Joe Manchin in General Election

With just over 30% of the vote left to count, Morrisey’s 6.2 point edge over Evan Jenkins is big enough for me to call this race. Don Blankenship will come in third.

9:47PM ET – Big dump in WV-03

WV-03 (R) – 63% in

Rupert Phillips – 22%
Marty Gearheart – 21%
Carol Miller – 19%
Conrad Lucas – 16%

We got another 15% in West Virginia’s third congressional district, and State delegate Rupert Phillips has rocketed into 1st as establishment candidate and Majority Whip of the West Virginia House of Delegates, Carol Miller, sits in third.

9:43PM ET – Watching surprising results in NC-09

Pastor Mark Harris is holding onto his lead against incumbent representative Robert Pittenger 49-46% in the GOP primary for the 3rd congressional district with 90% of votes in. This would be a massive upset, as the only poll for the race showed Pittenger up 52-20.

9:38PM ET – Three races to go

WV-Senate (R) – 56% in

Patrick Morrisey – 36%
Evan Jenkins – 28%
Don Blankenship – 20%

WV-03 (R) – 47% in

Marty Gearheart – 21%
Carol Miller – 20%
Rubert Phillips – 19%
Conrad Lucas – 16%

NC-09 (R) – 87% in 

Mark Harris – 49%
Robert Pittenger (incumbent) – 46%

9:29 PM ET – CALL – Renacci holds on in Closer Than Expected Race

With 40% of the vote in and a 12% vote differential, US Representative James Renacci holds on to defeat banker Mike Gibbons and advance to the general election to take on Sherrod Brown.

9:25 PM ET – Shocker in West Virginia’s third

Mary Gearheart, who raised just $81,963, is leading the Republican primary in West Virginia’s third congressional district. Carol Miller, who raised almost six times that amount, currently is running three points behind that.

9:21 PM ET – Four races remaining

WV-Senate (R) – 41% in

Patrick Morrisey – 35%
Evan Jenkins – 29%
Don Blankenship – 20%

WV-03 (R) – 36% in

Marty Gearheart – 22% (wow)
Carol Miller – 19%
Rubert Phillips – 19%
Conrad Lucas – 16%

NC-09 (R) – 66% in 

Mark Harris – 50%
Robert Pittenger (incumbent) – 45%

OH-Senate (R) – 39% in

James Renacci – 45%
Mike Gibbons – 33%

9:18 PM ET – CALL – Troy Balderson, Anthony Gonzalez stave off far-right challengers

The establishment candidates in the Republican primaries in the 12th and 16th congressional have avoided being upset by Freedom caucus backed challengers as state senator Troy Balderson and football player Anthony Gonzalez lock up the nominations.

9:10PM ET – CALL – O’Connor headed to Special Election; establishment candidates doing well in Ohio

We already saw Ohio’s gubernatorial nominations for both the Republican and the Democrat go to expected (comparatively) moderate candidates, and now Cody O’Connor has secured the Democratic nomination for the special election for the 12th district there. The establishment candidate on the GOP side of that race, as well as the GOP primary in OH-16 seem to be tilting towards the establishment candidate as well.

8:55PM ET – Update

WV-Senate (R) – 26% in

Patrick Morrisey – 33%
Evan Jenkins – 29%
Don Blankenship – 21%

WV-03 (R) – 20% in

Marty Gearheart – 30% (wow)
Rubert Phillips – 19%
Carol Miller – 16%
Conrad Lucas – 14%

NC-09 (R) – 31% in 

Mark Harris – 50%
Robert Pittenger (incumbent) – 45%

OH-Senate (R) – 11% in

James Renacci – 44%
Mike Gibbons – 34%

OH-12 (D) – 12% in

Danny O’Connor – 41%
Zach Scott – 17%
John Russell – 15%

OH-12 (R) – 5% in 

Troy Balderson – 39%
Melanie Leneghan – 22%
Tim Kane – 14%
Kevin Bacon – 12%

OH-16 (R) – 2% in

Anthony Gonzalez – 58%
Christina Hagan – 36%

8:52PM ET – CALL – Coleman wins Dem Nomination in NC-02, Jones keeps seat in NC-03

Moderate Walter Jones has held onto his seat in North Carolina’s third congressional district after a primary challenge from the far right, and former state rep Linda Coleman has won the Democratic nomination in the R+7 NC-02

8:47PM ET – West Virginia Senate Update

Morrisey sits at 34%, Jenkins at 27%, and Blankenship at 22% with 15% of the vote in. We have a lot of the major population centers in, but a lot of the “coal country” vote is still out.

8:39PM ET – Mark Harris could be headed to the US House

Mark Harris fell by just over 100 votes Robert Pittenger in the 2016 Republican primary, and now, despite Pittenger’s incumbency, he leads Pittenger 51%-45% although we do have just 9% of the vote in. Harris is a pastor, most known for his anti-gay rights rhetoric.

8:32PM ET – New, updated results

WV-Senate (R) – 5% in

Patrick Morrisey – 37%
Evan Jenkins – 28%
Don Blankenship – 20%

WV-03 (R) – 1% in

Carol Miller – 31%
Conrad Lucas – 21%
Rubert Phillips – 12%

NC-02 (D) – 5% in

Linda Coleman – 58%
Ken Romley – 31%

NC-03 (R) – 10% in

Walter Jones (Incumbent) – 47%
Phil Law – 27%
Scott Dacey – 27%

NC-09 (R) – 9% in 

Mark Harris – 51%
Robert Pittenger (incumbent) – 45%

OH-Senate (R) – 2% in

James Renacci – 46%
Mike Gibbons – 33%

 

OH-12 (D) – <1% in

Danny O’Connor – 43%
John Russell – 17%
Zach Scott – 16%

OH-12 (R) – <1% in 

Troy Balderson – 32%
Melanie Leneghan – 25%
Tim Kane – 15%
Kevin Bacon – 13%

8:20PM ET – Cordray, DeWine make it to the General

Both Cordray and DeWine are running at over 60% of the vote in, and it is safe to say they will be the two nominees heading to the general election

8:07PM ET – Results from West Virginia

WV-Senate (R) – <1% in

Patrick Morrisey – 56%
Evan Jenkins – 25%
Don Blankenship – 17%

WV-03 (R) – <1% in

Rubert Phillips – 16%
Conrad Lucas – 14%
Carol Miller – 12%

8:03PM ET – Results from North Carolina

NC-02 (D) – <1% in

Linda Coleman – 58%
Ken Romley – 32%

NC-03 (R) – 1% in

Walter Jones (Incumbent) – 49%
Phil Law – 29%
Scott Dacey – 24%

NC-09 (R) – <1% in 

Mark Harris – 50%
Robert Pittenger (incumbent) – 42%

Wow, we have practically no votes in, but we could see the first incumbent knocked off by a far right challenger of this cycle.

7:55PM ET – Results from Ohio

OH-Senate (R) – <1% in

James Renacci – 40%
Mike Gibbons – 35%

OH-Governor (D) – <1% in

Richard Cordray – 66%
Dennis Kucinich – 15%

OH-Governor (R) – <1% in

Mike DeWine – 66%
Mary Taylor – 35%

OH-12 (D) – <1% in

Danny O’Connor – 45%
John Russell – 18%
Zach Scott – 15%

OH-12 (R) – <1% in 

Troy Balderson – 26.4%
Melanie Leneghan – 26.2%
Tim Kane – 17%
Kevin Bacon – 15%

7:37PM ET – Braun win is a good sign for Blankenship

The more experienced Rokita and Messer splitting the vote and leading to the self-funded outsider Braun winning is a big sign for Blankenship, as you can draw a lot of parallels between the two primaries

7:30PM ET – Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

We’ll be watching primaries in six congressional districts (NC-02, NC-03, NC-09, OH-12, OH-16, and WV-03) as well as Ohio’s senatorial and gubernatorial primaries, and of course, the crown jewelel, West Virginia’s senatorial primary.

7:24 PM ET – We wait for North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia

All three of those states close polls at 7:30, and because I have already called both of the featured elections in Indiana, you should scroll down and check out my previews for those three states.

7:17PM ET – CALL – Mike Braun headed to General Election

Braun is up 13% with 11% in, and that is with both Rokita and Messer’s congressional districts mostly in, I’m calling this race for Mike Braun, who will carry a double-digit primary win into the general election against Joe Donnelly

7:13PM ET – CALL – Pence wins GOP nomination in IN-06

Mike Pence’s brother, Greg, leads economist Jonathan Lamb 67-22% with 17% reporting, which is enough for me to call the nomination (and very likely the seat in Congress) for Greg Pence.

7:10PM ET – Results slowly trickle in

With 8% in, self-funded businessman and state representative Mike Braun leads US Representatives Todd Rokita and Luke Messer each by double digits. Braun’s lack of experience may make him a weaker candidate in the general election.

7PM ET – Polls close in the rest of Indiana

Current results for those two GOP primaries I said we were keeping an eye on

US Senate – Indiana (R) – 5.7% in

Mike Braun – 42.3%
Todd Rokita – 29.2%
Luke Messer – 28.5%

US House – IN-06 (R) – 13.5% in

Greg Pence – 67.7%
Jonathan Lamb – 21.7%

6:00PM ET- Polls close in (most of) Indiana

Polls have closed in most of Indiana, the part of the state the is in the Eastern Time Zone. We’ll be watching the GOP Senate primary to see who will be taking on Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly in November, as well as seeing if Mike Pence’s brother, Greg, can pick up the nomination in the sixth congressional district. No call can be made until 7PM when polls close in the corners of the state, I’ll see you then.

THE PREVIEW

Indiana – Polls close at 6/7 PM ET*

* Polls close at 6 in most of the state, parts of the state in Central Time will close at 6PM CT (7PM ET)

US Senate (R)

Mike Braun – Former State Representative
Todd Rokita – US Representative
Luke Messer – US Representative

This is the race to challenge incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly in November. Donnelly is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Democrats up in the US Senate this year, so this has been a competitive primary that has been filled with attacks from all sides. Braun has had to deal with attacks that he has previously voted in the Democratic primaries, Messer lives out of state, and in return, Rokita coined the phrase “Lyin’ Todd” (a take on Donald Trump’s “Lyin’ Ted”) in reaction to an IndyStar story that he lied about a $240,000 per year government contract his wife had. All three have tried to tie themselves to Trump, but Rokita seems to be the tea party guy, Messer the establishment guy, and Braun the moderate.

According to Open Secrets, Braun has raised 5.8 million dollars (much of which was self-funded), Messer has raised 2.9 million dollars, and Rokita has raised 2.7 million dollars. The only poll of the primary, taken 4/11 by Gravis Marketing showed Braun at 26%, Rokita at 16%, and Messer at 13%, leaving a wide margin of 45% undecided. All three trailed Donnelly in a potential general election matchup according to that poll. Current odds via PredictIt have the race at 68% chance for Braun, 20% chance for Rokita, and 12% for Messer.

6th US House District (R)

Greg Pence – Mall owner, brother of Vice President Mike Pence
Jonathan Lamb – Economist

Messer’s former seat, the 6th congressional district, also has an interesting race going on. This seat has a Cook PVI of R+18, so whichever Republican wins here is likely to be headed on to the house of representatives. Greg Pence is the eye-catching name here, the brother of Vice President Mike Pence, who also represented this seat at one point. His main competition is businessman Jonathan Lamb, who due to a lot of self-funding has raised about half a million dollars (Pence has raised 1.2 million, both are according to Open Secrets). Current odds via PredictIt have the race at a 92% chance for Pence and an 8% chance for Lamb.

North Carolina – Polls close at 7:30 PM ET

2nd US House District (D)

Linda Coleman – Former state representative, Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012 & 2016
Ken Romley – management consultant

Entrepreneur Ken Romley has outraised Linda Coleman, raising 570 thousand dollars to her 141 thousand, largely due to self-funding, but Coleman does have name recognition from her failed runs for lieutenant governor in 2012 and 2016, as well as having the experience edge. The winner will take on incumbent Republican George Holding in November in the R+7 district, and with Holding already having raised 1.5 million dollars, it will be an uphill climb. Current odds via PredictIt slightly favor Coleman, 57% to 43% despite Romley’s edge in funding.

3rd US House District (R)

Walter Jones – Incumbent
Scott Dacey – Vice-Chairman of the Craven County Board of Commissioners

Walter Jones has been one of the more independent members of the Republican caucus in the house and has not voted with leadership on many things, such as the Russian meddling question. This has earned him a primary challenge from the right as Craven County Commissioner Scott Dacey has outraised the incumbent, 377 thousand to 350 thousand, although a Civitas Institute poll shows Jones leading 37%-28%. No Democrat is running for this seat, so the winner of the primary will be headed to the house.

9th US House District (R)

Robert Pittenger – Incumbent
Mark Harris – Reverend

Incumbent Republican Robert Pittenger defeated a local pulpit, Mark Harris by just over 100 votes in the 2016 Republican primary. Harris will go at it again this year, although he may not have the same support. In a March poll from the Civitas Institue, Pittenger led Harris 52% to 20%, although I would be shocked if it was that much of a blowout. Pittenger has also outraised Harris, raising 1.2 million dollars to Harris’ 573 thousand. The winner of this primary will take on Dan McCready in the General Election. This seat has an 8 point Republican lean according to the Cook PVI.

Ohio – Polls close 7:30PM ET

Governor (R)

Mike DeWine – Ohio Attorney General, former US Senator
Mary Taylor – Lieutenant Governor of Ohio

Republican governor John Kasich is term-locked out of running for governor again, and the #2 and 3 members of the state’s government are running for his seat. His Lieutenant Governor, Mary Taylor, has certainly not benefitted from his endorsement, as Kasich’s anti-Trump antics have lost her support in the Republican primary. Taylor has tried to distance herself, but to no avail. DeWine infamously tweeted #LockHerUp after a story of her misuse of taxpayer funds on state airplanes leaked.

DeWine seems to have this one locked up, he leads 43% to 26% in the most recent poll and has a 94% chance to win the election according to PredictIt.

Governor (D)

Richard Cordray – Former Attorney General of Ohio and former Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Dennis Kucinich – Former US Representative, former Mayor of Cleveland, candidate for President of th United States in 2004 & 2008

Richard Cordray, who you might remember as the first-ever director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under Obama, is the front-runner, who will be taking on former congressman and progressive presidential candidate in 2004 and 2008, Dennis Kucinich. Kucinich is endorsed by Bernie Sanders, while Cordray is endorsed by Elizabeth Warren (who created the CFPB), so we see the far-left implode. Both are essentially calling the other “not liberal enough,” Cordray held an A rating from the NRA in 2010, and Kucinich accepted money from a group supportive of Bashar al-Assad, although he later returned the money.

The latest poll shows Cordray at 28%, Kucinich at 13%, a little under 10% other, and about 50% undecided. Cordray has also outraised Kucinich, and has a 91% chance of prevailing according to PredictIt.

12th US House District (R)

Troy Balderson – State Senator
Kevin Bacon – State Senator
Melanie Leneghan – Liberty Township Trustee
Tim Kane – Economist, former Air Force intelligence officer

Incumbent Republican Pat Tiberi resigned to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable, but his preferred successor, state senator Troy Balderson is facing a tough challenge in the GOP Primary from hardcore Trump supporter Melanie Leneghan, who establishment Republicans fear could be toxic for Republicans in the general election. Veteran economist Tim Kane has also ran as an outsider candidate, although Leneghan would be the more likely of the two. Kevin Bacon, another state rep, has picked up support as a traditional pro-life, pro-gun conservative.

Funding is pretty close between the top three. Balderson has raised 464K off the back of a contribution from Tiberi, Kane has raised 459K, Leneghan is at 450K, and Bacon is a distant 4th at 281K. The only poll shows Balderson at 17, Leneghan at 11, Kane at 10, and Bacon at 10. PredictIt odds have Balderson at 58%, Leneghan at 36%, and Bacon at 6%.

12th US House District (D)

Danny O’Connor – Franklin County Recorder
Zach Scott – Former Franklin County Sherriff
John Russell – Farmer, and Democratic nominee for State Representative in 2016

Despite the 12th district having a Cook PVI of just R+7, the Democratic enthusiasm has not been what you might expect. The top three candidates: Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor, former Franklin County Sherriff Zach Scott, and Indivisible activist John Russell have raised 182K, 54K, and 91K respectively. O’Connor is the establishment figure, Scott is the moderate, and as you can probably tell by his position in the Indivisible organization, Russell is the progressive candidate. PredictIt sees this race as relatively safe for O’Connor, they give him an 83% chance, Scott an 11% chance, and Russell a 6% chance.

16th US House District (R)

Anthony Gonzalez – Former NFL Player
Christina Hagan – State Representative

Ohio’s other open House seat, which has a Cook PVI of R+8, has a similar sort of thing panning out on the Republican side. Former Ohio State (and later NFL) football player Anthony Gonzalez has the endorsement of many establishment Republicans, but he has found a challenge from his right as the house freedom caucus has endorsed state representative Christina Hagan. Gonzalez has raised 1.2 million dollars compared to Hagan’s 386 thousand. The winner is likely to win the special election, as the top Democrat, scientist Grant Goodrich, has raised just over 100K.

US Senate (R)

Jim Renacci – US Representative
Mike Gibbons – Investment banker

This race seems to be pretty much decided, but because it is a Senate race I’ll throw it in here. The winner of this race will face Sherrod Brown in November in a race that Republicans are eager to flip. Jm Renacci, is a clear favorite, sitting at 25% compared to Gibbons’ 11%, although Gibbons may have closed the gap a little in the closing stages, as he’s spent 2 million dollars of his own money to try and win the seat. He still is at about half (2.2 million) of what Renacci has raised (4.4 million). Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is sitting at 20.3 million.

West Virginia – Polls Close at 7:30PM ET

US Senate (R)

Don Blankenship – Former Chairman & CEO of Massey Energy
Patrick Morrisey – Attorney General of West Virginia
Evan Jenkins – US Representative

The crown jewel of today’s primaries, the West Virginia Republican Senate. Incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin is very vulnerable in November, West Virginia is pretty much the most Trump-friendly state in the union, so the winner here will have a very good chance to at least challenge him in November. The only public poll of the race had Jenkins in the lead, but I actually see him as the least likely winner of the three, mostly because he is the most moderate. Morrisey is the more libertarian candidate, securing endorsements from Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Scott Walker.

Then… there is Don Blankenship, the former Massey Energy CEO who spent a year in jail for “conspiring to violate mine safety standards” after 29 workers died in an explosion at one of his mines. He famously has killed Mith McConnell “Cocaine Mitch,” and said that he doesn’t like the Senate Majority Leader’s ties to “China people” referring to McConnell’s in-laws. Open Secrets has the funding at 3.5 million for Blankenship (largely self-funded), 1.9 million for Morrisey, and 1.5 million for Jenkins. The added media attention on Blankenship certainly ups his name value, and while he came in third in the previously mentioned poll, I would call him a slight favorite over Morrisey.

3rd US House District (R)

Carol Miller – Majority Whip of the West Virginia House of Delegates
Conrad Lucas – Chairman of the West Virginia Republican Party and candidate for the district in 2010
Ruppie Phillips – State Delegate

Jenkins running for Senate means he vacated his US House seat, leaving many Republicans vying for the top spot. Carol Miller, the Majority Whip of the West Virginia House of Delegates is the frontrunner with 464K in funding. West Virginia Republican Party chair Conrad Lucas and state delegate Ruppie Phillips both sit just shy of 250K in funding. The district has a Cook PVI of R+23, so the winner of this primary is likely to win the seat. PredictIt gives Miller a 72% chance, Lucas a 22% chance, and Phillips a 6% chance.

Welcome to the series where I go over every match that I gave ****+ to in each month of the wrestling calendar. April 2018 was a ton of fun. We have 66 (!!!) matches from three continents and 27 different companies. I’ll also have my top ten wrestlers of the month down at the bottom of the article. Alright, time to see what the best matches of April 2018 were.

Shows that I went back and watched in later months are in red and do not feature writeups. Below are other shows that feature matches I will hopefully check out in the future

{SPOILER WARNING}

#66 – From PROGRESS “Chapter 66” on 4/6 –  Mark Haskins vs Will Ospreay – ****

#65 – From STARDOM “Dream Slam In Nagoya” on 4/1 –  Viper (c) vs Jungle Kyona for the SWA Undisputed World Women’s Championship – ****

#64 – From STARDOM “Dream Slam In Nagoya” on 4/1 –  Toni Storm (c) vs Mayu Iwatani for the World of Stardom Championship – ****

#63 – From GCW “Joey Janela’s Spring Break 2” on 4/6 – David Starr vs Mike Quackenbush – ****

#62 – From PWG “All Star Weekend 14 Day 2” on 4/21 –  Joey Janela vs Robbie Eagles – ****

#61 – From Lucha Memes/Cara Lucha “Lucha Memes/Promociones Cara Lucha” on 4/22 – El Barbaro Cavernario vs Ricky Marvin – ****

#60 – From WWE “205 Live 4/3” on 4/3 – Buddy Murphy vs Kalisto – ****

#59 – From SEAdLINNG “Shin-Kiba 3rd Night” on 4/18 – Arisa Nakajima & Tsukasa Fujimoto vs Command Bolshoi & Yoshiko – ****

#58 – From FCP “Dream Tag Team Invitational 2018 Day 3” on 4/1 –  Aussie Open (Kyle Fletcher & Mark Davis) vs Calamari Catch Kings (Chris Brookes & Jonathan Gresham) in a Dream Tag Team Invitational 2018 Semifinal Match – ****

#57 – From GCW “Joey Janela’s Spring Break 2” on 4/6 –  Pierre Carl Ouellet vs WALTER – ****

#56 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 8” on 4/16 –  Shuji Ishikawa vs Naoya Nomura in a Champion Carnival 2018 Block A Match – ****

#55 – From CZW “Welcome To The Combat Zone 2018” on 4/7 –  Dezmond Xavier vs Will Ospreay – ****

#54 – From DDT “Max Bump 2018” on 4/29 –  Yuko Miyamoto (c) vs HARASHIMA for the DDT Extreme Championship – ****

#53 – From BJW “Sapporo 2 Days Day 1” on 4/14 –  Daichi Hashimoto vs Daisuke Sekimoto in a Ikkitousen Strong Climb 2018 Semifinal Match – ****

#52 – From PWG “All Star Weekend 14 Day 2” on 4/21 –  The Rascalz (Dezmond Xavier & Zachary Wentz) (c) vs Violence Unlimited (Brody King & Tyler Bateman) for the PWG World Tag Team Championships – ****

#51 – From wXw “We Love Wrestling Tour 2018: Frankfurt” on 4/21 –  Lucky Kid vs Zack Sabre Jr. – ****

#50 – From GCW “Matt Riddle’s Bloodsport” on 4/5 –  Matt Riddle vs Minoru Suzuki in a No Rope, Knockout or Tap Out Only Match – ****

#49 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 15” on 4/30 –  Joe Doering, Jun Akiyama, & Yuji Hino vs The Big Guns (The Bodyguard & Zeus) & Shingo Takagi – ****

#48 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 3” on 4/10 –  KAI vs Jun Akiyama in a Champion Carnival 2018 Block B Match – ****

#47 – From wXw “Shotgun #353” on 4/22 – Zack Sabre Jr. vs David Starr – ****

#46 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 7” on 4/15 –  Kento Miyahara vs Shuji Ishikawa in a Champion Carnival 2018 Block A Match – ****

#45 – From EVOLVE “WWN Supershow: Mercury Rising 2018” on 4/6 –  Munenori Sawa vs Zack Sabre Jr. – ****

#44 – From wXw “True Colors 2018” on 4/14 –  Absolute Andy vs Marius Al-Ani for the wXw Unified World Wrestling #1 Contendership in a TLC Match – ****

#43 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 1” on 4/7 –  Kento Miyahara vs Shingo Takagi in a Champion Carnival 2018 Block A Match – ****

#42 – From EVOLVE “WWN Supershow: Mercury Rising 2018” on 4/6 –   Daisuke Sekimoto vs Keith Lee – ****

#41 – From EVOLVE “EVOLVE 102” on 4/5 –  AR Fox vs Will Ospreay – ****

#40 – From NJPW “Road to Wrestling Dontaku Day 9” on 4/23 –  Suzuki-Gun (El Desperado & Yoshinobu Kanemaru) (c) vs Los Ingobernables de Japon (BUSHI & Hiromu Takahashi) for the IWGP Junior Heavyweight Championships – ****

#39 – From WRESTLE-1 “Cherry Blossom Tour 2018 Day 3” on 4/18 –  NEWERA (Koji Doi & Kumagoro) (c) vs Manabu Soya & AKIRA for the WRESTLE-1 Tag Team Championships – ****

#38 – From WWE “Wrestlemania 34” on 4/8 –  Miz (c) vs Finn Balor vs Seth Rollins for the WWE Intercontinental Championship – ****1/4

#37 – From K-DOJO “16th Anniversary Club-K Super Evolution” on 4/22 –  Taishi Takizawa (c) vs Ayato Yoshida for the STRONGEST-K Championship – ****1/4

#36 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 7” on 4/15 –  Shingo Takagi vs Yuji Hino in a Champion Carnival 2018 Block A Match – ****1/4

#35 – From Sendai Girls “Sendai Girls 4/19” on 4/19 –  Mika Iwata vs Hana Kimura – ****1/4

#34 – From ROH “Masters of the Craft” on 4/15 –  Jay Lethal vs Jonathan Gresham – ****1/4

#33 – From EVOLVE “EVOLVE 102” on 4/5 –  Zack Sabre Jr. (c) vs Matt Riddle for the EVOLVE Championship – ****1/4

#32 – From ROH “Supercard of Honor XII” on 4/7 – Hangman Page vs Kota Ibushi – ****1/4

#31 – From NJPW “Sakura Genesis 2018” on 4/1 –  Bullet Club (Cody & Hangman Page) vs The Golden Lovers (Kenny Omega & Kota Ibushi) – ****1/4

#30 – From AAW “Never Say Die 2018” on 4/13 –  AR Fox & Myron Reed vs Curt Stallion & Jake Something vs The Air Buds (Stephen Wolf & Trey Miguel) for the AAW Tag Team Championship #1 Contendership in a Ladder Match – ****1/4

#29 – From NOAH “Global Tag League 2018 Day 9” on 4/11 –  Go Shiozaki & Kaito Kiyomiya vs Kenou & Takashi Sugiura in the Global Tag League 2018 Final Match – ****1/4

#28 – From DDT “Max Bump 2018” on 4/29 –  Konosuke Takeshita (c) vs Shigehiro Irie for the KO-D Openweight Championship – ****1/4

#27 – From PWG “All Star Weekend 14 Day 2” on 4/21 –  Keith Lee (c) vs Jonah Rock vs WALTER for the PWG World Championship – ****1/4

#26 – From BJW “Ikkitousen Strong Climb Day 6” on 4/5 –  Daichi Hashimoto vs Yasufumi Nakanoue in an Ikkitousen Strong Climb 2018 Block A Match – ****1/4

#25 – From PWG “All Star Weekend 14 Day 1” on 4/20 –  Ringkampf (Timothy Thatcher & WALTER) vs Violence Unlimited (Brody King & Tyler Bateman) – ****1/4

#24 – From NJPW “Road to Wrestling Dontaku Day 12” on 4/27 –  Hirooki Goto (c) vs Juice Robinson for the NEVER Openweight Championship – ****1/4

#23 – From PROGRESS “Chapter 67” on 4/7 –  WALTER vs Zack Sabre Jr. – ****1/4

#22 – From ROH “Supercard of Honor XII” on 4/7 – Cody vs Kenny Omega – ****1/4

#21 – From PWG “All Star Weekend 14 Day 2” on 4/21 – Bandido vs Rey Horus – ****1/4

#20 – From FCP “Dream Tag Team Invitational 2018 Day 3” on 4/1 –  Aussie Open (Kyle Fletcher & Mark Davis) vs Moustache Mountain (Trent Seven & Tyler Bate) for the FCP Tag Team Championship in the Dream Tag Team Invitational 2018 Final Match – ****1/4

#19 – From AAA “Tv-Taping 4/20” on 4/20 –  Arkangel Divino, Black Destiny & Genio del Aire vs Black Danger, Mirage & Ultimo Maldito – ****1/4

#18 – From WrestleCon “Mark Hitchcock Memorial SuperShow” on 4/5 –  Bandido & Flamita vs Rey Fenix & Rey Horus – ****1/4

#17 – From RevPro “WrestleCon 2018” on 4/6 –  CHAOS (Chuckie T, Rocky Romero & Will Ospreay) vs Flip Gordon, Kota Ibushi & Shane Strickland – ****1/2

This was a fun mix of strike exchanges, flippy shit, and a little bit of comedy. They teased Ospreay and Ibushi early on, and then delivered it later to get the biggest reaction possible. The closing stretch of this match was as good as any I saw WrestleMania weekend, as Will and Kota did some crazy stuff. This is a must-watch match.

#16 – From ROH “Supercard of Honor XII” on 4/7 – SoCal Uncensored (Christopher Daniels, Frankie Kazarian & Scorpio Sky) (c) vs Flip Gordon and the Young Bucks  (Matt Jackson & Nick Jackson) in a Ladder Match for the ROH Six Man Tag Team Championships – ****1/2

The match of the night from Ring of Honor’s most attended show ever. There was a dumb run in by the Kingdom at one point, but if you look past that, they took some crazy bumps in this match. This was chaotic at times, but it told a story, with Flip Gordon trying to prove himself, and Christopher Daniels taking advantage of all the carnage to sneak up the ladder and pick up the win.

#15 – From WWE “WrestleMania 34” on 4/8 –  Kurt Angle & Ronda Rousey vs The Authority (Stephanie McMahon & Triple H) – ****1/2

You definitely have to take into account expectations when rating matches, and this match blew the expectations out of the water. Ronda Rousey had an absolutely awesome match to kick off her WWE career, and while from a workrate perspective this wasn’t anything special, it just felt huge when you watch the crowd react to everything Ronda does. Triple H also deserves a huge pat on the back for his performance.

#14 – From MLW “The World Championship Final” on 4/12 –  Matt Riddle vs Shane Strickland for the MLW Heavyweight Championship in the MLW Title Tournament Final Match – ****1/2

#13 – From RevPro “WrestleCon 2018” on 4/6 –  Zack Sabre Jr. (c) vs Tomohiro Ishii for the RevPro Undisputed British Heavyweight Championship – ****1/2

This match was loads of fun, Sabre started out taking Ishii lightly and disrespecting him, and for a while, it works, as Sabre dominates the bigger Ishii on the ground. Ishii sells tremendously, but by daring Sabre to get into a striking contest, Sabre makes a mistake and tries to win with his striking game, and Ishii takes advantage, hitting the Ishii Driver to win the British title.

#12 – From Sendai Girls “Sendai Girls 4/19” on 4/19 –  Io Shirai vs Meiko Satomura – ****1/2

The best match from a promotion even the most hardcore wrestling fans have never heard of this year, and a sure-fire women’s match of the year contender here between Io Shirai and Meiko Satomura. The two went out and just killed eachother with strikes, and they did a 20-minute time limit draw finish that just left me wanting more.

#11 – From PWG “All Star Weekend 14 Day 1” on 4/20 –  The Chosen Bros (Jeff Cobb & Matt Riddle) (c) vs The Young Bucks (Matt Jackson & Nick Jackson) vs The Rascalz (Dezmond Xavier & Zachary Wentz) for the PWG World Tag Team Championships – ****1/2

#10 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 13” on 4/24 –  Jun Akiyama vs Naomichi Marufuji in a Champion Carnival 2018 Block B Match – ****1/2

#9 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 14” on 4/29 –  Shingo Takagi vs Shuji Ishikawa in a Champion Carnival 2018 Block A Match – ****1/2

Shuji Ishikawa is one of my favorites in the world, and he was going up against Shingo Takagi here, the undisputed MVP of the 2018 Champion Carnival tournament. Shingo played the firey underdog here, a role he doesn’t often play, but it worked great. They have a great near fall when Shingo kicks out of Splash Mountain, and Shingo fires back with some offense, and even hits Made in Japan before finally succumbing to the Giant Slam.

#8 – From wXw “True Colors 2018″ on 4/14” on 4/14 –  Ilja Dragunov (c) vs WALTER for the wXw Unified World Wrestling Championship – ****1/2

This certainly had the potential to live up to their wXw 16 Carat Gold finals, but they did the weird “ref calls for the DQ, but the fighting champ wants to restart the match” bit, which kind of took me out of it. This was still incredible, and Ilja will have red marks on his chest for the rest of his life because of his series with WALTER. There is something about Dragunov that makes his “Super Cena” comebacks feel real, and he is one of the best in the world at fighting from beneath. I hope the rematch at Superstars of Wrestling doesn’t have all the shenanigans.

#7 – From NXT “Takeover: New Orleans” on 4/7 –  Andrade Almas (c) vs Aleister Black for the NXT Championship – ****1/2

NXT Takeover: New Orleans will challenge Wrestle Kingdom as the best show of the year, because there were three absolute classics on this show, starting with Almas and Black. The finish here was awesome, as Zelina Vega, who helped Almas keep the title for so long, accidentally leads to him losing the belt, as Almas catches her, but then can’t get his hands up to defend the Black Mass kick.

#6 – From NXT “Takeover: New Orleans” on 4/7 –  Johnny Gargano vs Tommaso Ciampa in an Unsanctioned Match – ****3/4

This match went a little too long I would say, but it told a good enough story to justify it, and I’m still giving it 4.75 stars, although I would be interested to hear what somebody who doesn’t know the backstory would think about it. At one point Gargano throws Ciampa over the announce desk and we lose two of the commentators for a few minutes. Ciampa hits a suplex off of the table and then brutalizes Gargano with the crutch. Gargano hits the lawn dart into the exposed turnbuckle, and the two get tied together with Ciampa’s tape and have an awesome strike exchange. Ciampa takes off his knee brace and goes for a running knee, but Gargano hits the injured knee with the brace. Ciampa lies there in pain, and Gargano thinks about going for a shot with the crutch, but instead sits down with him as a callback to their Crusierweight Classic match. Ciampa goes for a shot with the brace, but Gargano sees it coming and ducks it straight into the Gargano escape before transitioning into an STF on the injured knee with the brace in Ciampa’s face for the tap.

#5 – From EVOLVE “WWN Supershow: Mercury Rising 2018” on 4/6 –  Matt Riddle (c) vs Will Ospreay for the EVOLVE Championship in a No Ropebreaks Match – ****3/4

This was jaw-dropping, and I was honestly concerned with Will Ospreay’s health at points during this match. Ospreay teased the spanish fly off the apron early on, but Riddle blocks it and gives Ospreay a suplex onto the apron. Riddle plays the dick champion throughout, killing Ospreay with knee strikes and tearing off Ospreay’s tape. Riddle hits a huge knee but Ospreay kicks out at one and locks in a triangle. Riddle escapes, and they trade strikes until Ospreay goes for the rainmaker, Riddle counters, but Ospreay goes straight into the Oscutter and Riddle counters into the Bromission to get the tap. Incredible.

#4 – From NJPW “Sakura Genesis 2018” on 4/1 –  Kazuchika Okada (c) vs Zack Sabre Jr. for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship – ****3/4

Zack Sabre Jr. is the wrestler of the year right now, and it isn’t that close. He has been either first or second in my wrestler of the month rankings in January, March, and April. Okada shows some ground game early, but Sabre figures it out and takes control. The spot where Okada goes for the dropkick and Sabre catches it and transitions into a submission is beautiful. They do the thing where Okada baits Sabre into getting into a strike fest, and Okada takes control. Okada goes for the rainmaker but gets caught, and they do a call back to the only time Okada has ever submitted (Shinsuke Nakamura in the G1 Climax) as Sabre locks Okada in the same flying armbar. Sabre reverses the rainmaker into a European Clutch, but Okada kicks out. Okada hits two rainmakers, but Sabre counters the third, Okada escapes the octopus and finally hits the third rainmaker for the win… wow.

#3 – From NXT “Takeover: New Orleans” on 4/7 –  Adam Cole vs EC 3 vs Killian Dain vs Lars Sullivan vs Ricochet vs The Velveteen Dream in a Ladder Match for the NXT North American Championship – ****3/4

I cannot do this match justice. It was a crazy spotfest in every sense of the world, but it was still just incredible. You get the debuts of EC3 and Ricochet here, with Ricochet hitting a shooting star to the floor almost immediately, and EC3 playing up his cocky attitude. We get Ricochet hitting a moonsault off a falling ladder, we get Velveteen hitting the Purple Rainmaker off the ladder. We get a death valley driver onto a ladder that was balanced on another ladder. This was just special. Adam Cole dumps Richochet off the ladder at the last second and grabs the title to get some heat.

#2 – From AJPW “Champion Carnival 2018 Day 15” on 4/30 –  Kento Miyahara vs Naomichi Marufuji in the Champion Carnival 2018 Final – ****3/4

Maybe it’s recency bias, but the top six matches of this month are all in my top 11 for the year, meaning there was more top-notch wrestling this month than the first three combined. This match didn’t happen in New Japan or WWE, so it won’t get crazy buzz, but everyone who saw it agrees that it was incredible. The classic story of the champ defending his promotion against the outsider, and it was sensational. There was a cool spot where they both went for knee attacks and cracked knees. In the end, Marufuji surprisingly defeats Kento with the Emerald Flowsion, and he holds up the Pro Wrestling NOAH flag after the match, signaling we may see the two promotions work together more in the future.

#1 – From NJPW “Sakura Genesis 2018” on 4/1 –  Will Ospreay (c) vs Marty Scurll for the IWGP Junior Heavyweight Championship – *****

The match that set up all of Will Ospreay’s incredible performances Mania weekend. Scurll goes after the neck instantly, and they tell the “these two know each other so well” story from their days on the British scene. Ospreay goes for the Oscutter but Marty yells “chickenwing”, making Ospreay hesitate. There were a bunch of subtle things like that throughout that made this match special. Scurll hits a tombstone on the floor, and Ospreay hits the now-infamous Spanish fly off of the apron, cracking his head open in the process. Scurll stomps on Ospreay’s neck but Ospreay rolls through and hits the Oscutter out of nowhere for the win. If Scurll won via stoppage this would be my match of the year, but the random finish out of nowhere brought it down a bit for me.

 

WRESTLER OF THE MONTH

This is simple, five points for a ***** match, four for a ****3/4, three for a ****1/2, two for a ****1/4, and one for a ****, with your highest rated match as a tiebreaker.

1) Will Ospreay – 15 points
2) Matt Riddle – 15 points
3) Zack Sabre Jr. – 14 points
4) WALTER – 10 points
5) Naomichi Marufuji – 7 points
6) Shingo Takagi – 7 points
7) Kota Ibushi – 7 points
8) Kento Miyahara – 6 points
9) Flip Gordon – 6 points
10) Young Bucks – 6 points

Welcome to a new series where I go over every match that I gave ****+ to in each month of the wrestling calendar. March 2018 was a ton of fun. We have 48 matches from three continents and 19 different companies. I’ll also have my top ten wrestlers of the month down at the bottom of the article. Alright, time to see what the best matches of March 2018 were.

Shows that I went back and watched in later months are in red and do not feature writeups.

{SPOILER WARNING}

#48 – From wXw “Inner Circle 5” on 3/8 – Mark Haskins vs Mike Bailey – ****

#47 – From Wrestle Circus “Raise the Curtain” on 3/24 –  Penta El Zero M vs Shane Strickland – ****

#46 – From DDT “Judgement 2018: 21st Anniversary Show” on 3/25 –  Shuten Doji (KUDO, Masahiro Takanashi & Yukio Sakaguchi) (c) vs Koju Takeda, Kota Umeda & Yuki Ueno for the KO-D Six Man Tag Team Championships – ****

#45 – From wXw “16 Carat Gold 2018 Day 1” on 3/9 –  Bobby Gunns & John Klinger vs Mike Bailey & WALTER – ****

The classic champions vs challengers match the night before two big title matches. There were tons of great exchanges throughout this match that got everybody ready for the two title matches the following night. Bobby Gunns, who is probably the least well-known name of the four, really shined here, although he did t1ake the fall from Bailey in the end.

#44 – From WAVE “Catch The Wave 2018 Day 1” on 3/11 –  Hiroe Nagahama vs Misaki Ohata in a Catch The WAVE 2018 Block B Match – ****

#43 – From FCP “Dream Tag Team Invitational 2018 Day 1” on 3/30 –  Chris Brookes (c) vs Meiko Satomura for the FCP Championship – ****

#42 – From Wrestle Circus “Raise the Curtain” on 3/24 –  Tessa Blanchard (c) vs Chelsea Green for the Wrestlecircus Lady of the Ring Championship – ****

#41 – From Limitless “Only Fools Are Satisfied” on 3/30 –  The Work Horsemen (Anthony Henry & James Drake) vs Jay Freddie & John Silver – ****

#40 – From OTT “Martina’s Gaff Party 3” on 3/31 –  Mark Haskins vs Scotty Davis in a OTT No Limits Championship Tournament Semifinal Match – ****

#39 – From wXw “16 Carat Gold 2018 Day 2” on 3/10 –  Bobby Gunns (c) vs Mike Bailey for the wXw Shotgun Championship – ****

Speaking of Gunns and Bailey, these two had their title match, and I’d give it four stars just from Mike Bailey’s nasty selling after Gunns taped his finger to the back of his hand (yes, this actually happened) and left it there for half the match. A gruesome encounter, Bobby Gunns picked up the win with his armbar finisher while working on Bailey’s injured finger.

#38 – From Bar Wrestling “Bar Wrestling 10” on 3/8 – LAX (Ortiz & Santana) vs The Lucha Brothers (Penta El Zero M & Rey Fenix) – ****

This was my first taste of Bar Wrestling, and I liked what I saw from these four. This was pretty much a spotfest, but they put together a solid story throughout the match. This was paced insanely quickly, and the guys looked a little gassed by the end of it, but I really enjoyed as a US Indy main event, they put together some really creative double team spots, and the Lucha Bros picked up the win with Penta’s package piledriver.

#37 – From PWG “Time Is A Flat Circle” on 3/23 –  Bandido & Flamita vs Dezmond Xavier & Zachary Wentz – ****

#36 – From wXw “16 Carat Gold 2018 Day 2” on 3/10 –  Lucky Kid vs Timothy Thatcher in a 16 Carat Gold Tournament 2018 Quarterfinal Match – ****

Lucky Kid caught the wrestling world’s eye here on night two as the little-known member of RISE got a chance to take on one of the most legit in the world, Ringkampf’s Timothy Thatcher. It was the classic technical wizard vs high flyer, and Thatcher has had a breakout year in 2018 after I hated him in his EVOLVE days. Thatcher picked up the win with a Butterfly Suplex, but Kid showed that he had babyface potential and put up a great fight here.

#35 – From NJPW “Strong Style Evolved” on 3/25 –  CHAOS (Kazuchika Okada & Tomohiro Ishii) vs Suzuki-Gun (Minoru Suzuki & Zack Sabre Jr.) – ****

Lost in the madness from the main event tag, these four had a really fun match on the undercard for NJPW’s first US card of the year. Suzuki-Gun just dominated the two CHAOS members throughout this match, one spot in particular sticks in my mind, when Suzuki and Sabre combined to put on various double submissions on Ishii, seamlessly transitioning from one to the other. Zack made Ishii tap with the Orienteering with Napalm Death to set up his title match with Okada.

#34 – From Dragon Gate “Champion Gate in Osaka Day 1” on 3/3 –  MaxiMuM (Jason Lee, Masato Yoshino & Naruki Doi) (c) vs Tribe Vanguard (Flamita, YAMATO & Yosuke Santa Maria) for the Open the Triangle Gate Championships – ****

#33 – From WWE “205 Live 3/27” on 3/27 –  Buddy Murphy vs Akira Tozawa vs Kalisto vs TJP for the WWE Cruiserweight Championship #1 Contendership – ****

#32 – From WAVE “Osaka Rhapsody Vol 38” on 3/18 –  Mio Momono vs Misaki Ohata in a Catch The WAVE 2018 Block B Match – ****

#31 – From BJW “Ikkitousen Strong Climb 2018 Day 1” on 3/8 –  Daichi Hashimoto vs Takuya Nomura – ****

#30 – From CMLL “Homenaje A Dos Leyendas 2018” on 3/16 –  Angel de Oro vs El Cuatrero in a Mask vs Mask Match – ****

I know it is CMLL’s thing and they do it with all their matches, but this would have been better without the two out of three falls stipulation. The two worked really hard, and I enjoyed the match, but having two stops midway brought me out of it at times. How did Cuatrero submit to the Campana at one point, but five minutes later, he was suddenly able to withstand it. When you look past that, these two worked an excellent match and had a fun combination of high-flying and submission based offense

#29 – From wXw “16 Carat Gold 2018 Day 3” on 3/11 –  Ilja Dragunov (c) vs Matt Riddle for the wXw Unifed World Wrestling Championship – ****

Ilja and Riddle had an impromptu title match just one night after Dragunov won the title from Bad Bones John Klinger. A very good match, Riddle has them with everybody it seems. Riddle hit some nasty looking knees, and these two had some beautiful strike exchanges throughout. Ilja picked up the win with the Torpedo Moscow, in an awesome match, but it was really short and I wish they gave these guy a few more minutes.

#28 – From NJPW “New Japan Cup 2018 Day 8” on 3/18 –  SANADA vs Zack Sabre Jr. in a New Japan Cup 2018 Semifinal Match – ****

SANADA is one of my personal favorites, he doesn’t get enough credit, and I absolutely loved his match with Okada last month, and he put in another awesome performance here. In a way, SANADA was shown as the only guy that could really hang with Sabre on the ground. At the end of the day though, Sabre caught him in a brutal looking submission where he bent back on every extremity possible

#27 – From ROH “16th Anniversary Show” on 3/9 –  Dalton Castle (c) vs Jay Lethal for the ROH World Championship – ****1/4

Now, I didn’t like this match as much as some people, but Castle needed an excellent match to solidify his title reign, and he got it here. Lethal put in one of his few awesome performances he has every year, working on the knee of Castle until the champ kicked out of the Lethal Injection. Lethal went to the outside, but Castle caught him with a German off of the apron. The finish came when Lethal was looking for a roll up and Castle rolled through into the Bangarang for the win.

#26 – From wXw “16 Carat Gold 2018 Day 3” on 3/11 –  Absolute Andy vs David Starr in the 16 Carat Gold Tournament 2018 Final Match – ****1/4

The result will get the headlines, as everybody was sure Starr would pick up the win coming into this match, but the match itself was really good too. The two worked a really fun match with Andy throwing Starr around the ring that was starting to get into 4.5+ territory before the finishers kicked in. Andy hit an F5 into the ringpost… Starr got back in, another F5, and a kickout, another F5, another F5, another F5 this time from the top rope… and Starr kicks out. Andy eventually wins with A-Klasse, but the unbelievable finish with all those kickouts really brought me down on what was an awesome match to that point.

#25 – From NJPW “Strong Style Evolved” on 3/25 –  Jay White (c) vs Hangman Page for the IWGP United States Championship – ****1/4

These two were working in front of a dead crowd that just wanted to see the main event, and two announcers that knew nothing about the product, but they killed it and put on one of the most underrated matches thus far in 2018. More accurately, they almost killed each other, each taking some crazy bumps, including a dragon suplex from the apron to the floor! White retained with the Blade Runner, after the crowd finally got into the match towards the end.

#24 – From WWE “205 Live 3/13” on 3/13 –  Cedric Alexander vs Roderick Strong in a WWE Cruiserweight Title Tournament Semifinal Match – ****1/4

These two got 15 minutes to go out and do something special, and they made the most of it. If 205 Live is a thriving brand in a few months, we will look back on this match as the turning point. It was an awesome battle with the winner going to Wrestlemania, both men got their feet on the ropes after taking the other’s finisher for nice near falls, and Alexander got a cradle out of nowhere for the surprise win, sending him to the grandest stage of them all.

#23 – From NOAH “Global Tag League 2018 Day 4” on 3/31 –  Atsushi Kotoge & Naomichi Marufuji vs Kenou & Takashi Sugiura in a Global Tag League 2018 First Round Match – ****1/4

#22 – From wXw “16 Carat Gold 2018 Day 1” on 3/9 –  Absolute Andy vs Marius Al-Ani in a 16 Carat Gold Tournament 2018 First Round Match – ****1/4

My personal favorite match from the actual 16 Carat Gold tournament came from the main event of night one (which actually wasn’t supposed to be the main event at all). This was a fun clash between two former tag team partners who broke up at least year’s World Tag League tournament. The finish was well done and one of my favorites when it is executed well, as Al-Ani had his foot on the rope, but the referee couldn’t see it.

#21 – From AJPW “Dream Power Series 2018 Day 5” on 3/25 –  Joe Doering (c) vs Kento Miyahara for the Triple Crown Championship – ****1/4

The two aces of AJPW squared off in their first big show on their new streaming service, and these two had a barnburner. Miyahara bumped like crazy for Doering, who was shown as the better man in this match. Whenever Miyhara seemed to be building up steam, Doering would swat him down. Doering hit a powerbomb into the guardrail. The finish came as Miyahara hit the bridging German out of nowhere and pinned Doering. They did the thing where Doering got up first despite losing, and both men looked absolutely fantastic heading into the Champion’s Carnival next month.

#20 – From wXw “We Love Wrestling Tour 2018: London” on 3/24 –  The Hunter Brothers (Jim Hunter & Lee Hunter) vs Aussie Open (Kyle Fletcher & Mark Davis) in a World Tag Team League 2018 Qualifying Match – ****1/4 

#19 – From BJW “Ikkitousen Strong Climb 2018 Day 2” on 3/21 –  Takuya Nomura vs Yuya Aoki in a Ikkitousen Strong Climb 2018 Block A Match – ****1/4

#18 – From NJPW “New Japan Cup 2018 Day 7” on 3/16 –  Hiroshi Tanahashi vs Juice Robinson in a New Japan Cup 2018 Semifinal Match – ****1/4

The two Taguchi-Japan members had a nice friendly match here. Neither really worked heel, as Juice pledged before the match not to go after Tanahashi’s injured knee. Juice did work desperately at points, stealing Tanahashi’s High Fly Flow at one point for a nice near fall. It was a story-driven match, and it had an awesome closing stretch with Juice coming so close to beating the ace, however, Tanahashi picked up the win with a pair of High Fly Flows. Juice earns his respect in the process for not going after the knee.

#17 – From DDT “Judgement 2018: 21st Anniversary Show” on 3/25 –  Konosuke Takeshita (c) vs Shuji Ishikawa for the KO-D Openweight Championship – ****1/4

#16 – From NJPW “New Japan Cup 2018 Day 3” on 3/11 –  Tetsuya Naito vs Zack Sabre Jr. in a New Japan Cup 2018 First Round Match – ****1/4

This was the first match in what was an incredible march to the crown for Zack Sabre Jr., and we all gasped the first time he locked in the Orienteering with Napalm Death, and gasped again when Naito tapped clean. Sabre’s offense looked so nice in this match, flowing from one move to the next as he worked on the left arm and legs of Naito. Naito’s selling was really good throughout this match, and Sabres postmatch promo of “who’s tranquilo now, dickhead?” was hilarious, as he usually is.

#15 – From ROH “Manhattan Mayhew VII” on 3/3 –  Bullet Club (Hangman Page, Marty Scurll, Matt Jackson & Nick Jackson) vs Shane Taylor & The Kingdom (Matt Taven, TK O’Ryan & Vinny Marseglia) in an Ultimate Mayhem Match – ****1/2

This was an interesting match type, similar to War Games except without the cage. The match started as a one on one, and every few minutes, a new member would be added. The story was that whenever Shane Taylor and The Kingdom had the advantage, they would take control, but when Bullet Club evened the odds and had the same number of people they were the superior team. An awesome match, but a bit of a spot-fest, so I would pass if you aren’t into that type of match.

#14 – From PWG “Time Is A Flat Circle” on 3/23 –  Adam Brooks vs Will Ospreay – ****1/2

#13 – From Dragon Gate “Champion Gate in Osaka Day 2” on 3/4 –  Masaaki Mochizuki (c) vs Ben-K for the Open the Dream Gate Championship – ****1/2

#12 – From NOAH “Global Tag League 2018 Day 1” on 4/18 –  Katsuhiko Nakajima & Masa Kitamiya vs Atsushi Kotoge & Naomichi Marufuji in a Global Tag League 2018 First Round Match – ****1/2

#11 – From PWG “Time Is A Flat Circle” on 3/23 –  Matt Riddle vs Zack Sabre Jr. – ****1/2

#10 – From wXw “We Love Wrestling Tour 2018: London” on 3/24 –  Ilja Dragunov (c) vs David Starr vs Travis Banks vs WALTER for the wXw Unified World Wrestling Championship – ****1/2

A lot of people I respect had this match rated higher than the three-way from 16 Carat that also involved Dragunov and WALTER. I wouldn’t go that far, but this was a fun match, and the PROGRESS infusion of Travis Banks made this Unified Title match feel special. Does any company in the world do multi-man matches better than wXw, because I have two of them at ****1/2+ this month.

#9 – From NJPW “New Japan Cup 2018 Day 3” on 3/11 –  Kota Ibushi vs YOSHI-HASHI in a New Japan Cup 2018 First Round Match – ****1/2

Overshadowed by Zack Sabre Jr.’s epic run to the New Japan Cup, Kota Ibushi also had an incredible month, which started out with this ****1/2 banger against YOSHI-HASHI. There was a spot in this match where YOSHI-HASHI practically stood there waiting for Ibushi to hit his moonsault off of the balcony, this had ****3/4 potential if they landed that a little better.

#8 – From NJPW “46th Anniversary Show” on 3/6 – Kazuchika Okada vs Will Ospreay – ****1/2

#7 – From WRESTLE-1 “Trans Magic Tour 2018 Day 5” on 3/14 –  Shotaro Ashino (c) vs Manabu Soya for the WRESTLE-1 Championship – ****1/2

#6 – From NJPW “New Japan Cup 2018 Day 1” on 3/9 –  Michael Elgin vs Tomohiro Ishii in a New Japan Cup 2018 First Round Match – ****1/2

Elgin and Ishii had an awesome hoss battle to kick off the first day of the New Japan Cup. I know that there will be some that go ****3/4 on this, but it started a little slow for me before picking up for an awesome 2nd half of the match. These two killed each other with forearms, and the top rope crucifix powerbomb was an awesome nearfall that could have paralyzed Ishii.

#5 – From NJPW “New Japan Cup 2018 Day 9” on 3/21 –  Hiroshi Tanahashi vs Zack Sabre Jr. in the New Japan Cup 2018 Final – ****3/4

Tanahashi and Sabre kick off my top five for this month. I loved the story of Sabre tapping out the old ace on his way to facing the new ace, and the fact that he actually got Tanahashi to submit, instead of just getting a ref stoppage like his faction leader Suzuki, could set up a faction turmoil story a few years down the road, with a potential Suzuki retirement match and the formation of Sabre-gun.

#4 – From wXw “16 Carat Gold 2018 Day 2” on 3/10 –  John Klinger (c) vs Ilja Dragunov vs WALTER for the wXw Unified World Wrestling Championship – ****3/4

This match was billed as the biggest in wXw history, and that was before WALTER used his stipulation-picking ability to add in the lovable Ilja Dragunov. These three each have history with each other, and last year’s WALTER vs Dragunov match was certainly a Match of the Year contender. This didn’t quite live up there, but it was an awesome match with lots of fun spots and near falls that really got the crowd, and me, invested in it. In the end Ilja finally won the title after a year’s long journey, and the crowd popped big, but let me give some credit to WALTER, who is in my eyes the best non-NJPW wrestler in the world by a solid margin.

#3 – From NOAH “The Great Voyage 2018 in Yokohama” on 3/11 –  Kenou (c) vs Takashi Sugiura for the GHC Heavyweight Championship – ****3/4

I am a lot higher on this match than most people are, but I thought that this was absolutely incredible. Kenou had been putting on incredible matches all throughout his title run, and this was the best of those. I wasn’t expecting him to lose the title, so this was a huge surprise to me, and these two threw the stiffest of strikes at another until Sugiura got Kenou to pass out with a beautiful choke.

#2 – From NJPW “New Japan Cup 2018 Day 6” on 3/15 –  Kota Ibushi vs Zack Sabre Jr. in a New Japan Cup 2018 Quarterfinal Match – ****3/4

Kota Ibushi and Zack Sabre tore down the house in the main event of the show. These are two of the best wrestlers in the world, and they put on an incredible match here, with Sabre controlling Ibushi throughout, and Ibushi building up babyface fire and getting the crowd into this match 1000%.Ibushi is the only one who did not submit to Sabre in this tournament run, as the ref had to stop the match.

#1 – From NPW “Strong Style Evolved” on 3/25 –  The Golden Lovers (Kenny Omega & Kota Ibsuhi) vs The Young Bucks (Matt Jackson & Nick Jackson) – *****

This was pure perfection, for starters, the match was incredible with high paced action and creative spots, then factor in the story behind it, and this is a match of the year contender. Matt Jackson and Nick Jackson seemingly stood split in their allegiances after this match, with one on Kenny’s side, and one on Cody’s. That could potentially set up a match between the two at All In.

WRESTLER OF THE MONTH

This is simple, five points for a ***** match, four for a ****3/4, three for a ****1/2, two for a ****1/4, and one for a ****, with your highest rated match as a tiebreaker.

1) Zack Sabre Jr. – 15 points
2) Kota Ibushi – 12 points
3) The Young Bucks – 8 points
4) Ilja Dragunov – 8 points
5) WALTER – 8 points
6) Kenou & Takashi Sugiura (TIE) – 6 points
8) Hiroshi Tanahashi – 6 points
9) Will Ospreay – 6 points
10) Kenny Omega – 5 points

Welcome to a new series where I go over every match that I gave ****+ to in each month of the wrestling calendar. January 2018 was arguably one of the best months in the history of wrestling, so many of the future month’s lists will be half or even a third of the size of this one, I just really enjoyed a lot of the wrestling from promotions around the world this month. We have 55 matches from three continents and 26 different companies. I’ll also have my top ten wrestlers of the month down at the bottom of the article. Alright, time to see what the best matches of January 2018 were.

Shows that I went back and watched in later months are in red and do not feature writeups.

{SPOILER WARNING}

#55 – From NOAH “Navigation to the Future Night 1” on 1/6 – Taiji Ishimori (c) vs Andrew Everett for the Impact X Division Championship – ****

I originally had only watched the main event from this show, but went back and watched this after I heard some good things about it, and this was a very enjoyable high flying affair. Everett played the cocky foreign heel role perfectly, and the pacing of this match is fantastic.

#54 – From WWE NXT “NXT 1/31” on 1/31 –  Roderick Strong vs Tyler Bate for the WWE United Kingdom Championship #1 Contendership – ****

#53 – From SEAdLINNNG “Now or Never” on 1/14 –  Arisa Nakajima vs Misaki Ohata – ****

#52 – From PWX “X16 Tournament 2018 Night 2” on 1/14 –  Tracer X vs David Starr in an X16 Tournament 2018 Quarterfinal Match – ****

#51 – From RevPro “Live At The Cockpit 24” on 1/6 –  Pete Dunne vs El Phantasmo – ****

#50 – From ROH “ROH on SBG 1/14” on 1/14 – Jay Lethal vs Will Ospreay – ****

#49 – From CMLL “Martes Arena Mexico 1/23” on 1/23 –  Mephisto (c) vs Titan for the CMLL World Welterweight Championship – ****

#48 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 in Shinjuku” on 1/5 –  Jiro Kuroshio vs Konosuke Takeshita in a D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 Block A Match

#47 – From NJPW “The New Beginning in Sapporo Day 2” on 1/28 –  Kenny Omega (c) vs Jay White for the IWGP United States Championship – ****

I seem to be the high guy on this match, but I thought that this was excellent. The crowd wasn’t into it as much as you would’ve liked, but this was a solid New Japan main event, and I am all aboard the bandwagon on the Jay White character. The commentary really helped this match, as did the surprise result.

#46 – From Beyond “Spirit of ’76” on 1/27 – David Starr vs Matt Riddle – ****

#45 – From EVOLVE “EVOLVE 98” on 1/13 – AR Fox vs Matt Riddle – ****

These two matched up really well stylistically, and I bought a lot of the near falls along the way, and it didn’t overstay its welcome, which I feel AR Fox matches sometimes do. Fox hit the Lo Mein Pain and the 450 splash for the victory and sets up a match with Keith Lee for the WWN Championship at EVOLVE 100 in February, which should be excellent.

#44 – From PWG “Mystery Vortex V” on 1/12 –  The Chosen Bros (Jeff Cobb & Matt Riddle) (c) vs RINGKAMPF (Timothy Thatcher & WALTER) for the PWG Tag Team Championships

#43 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 in Shin Kiba” on 1/14 –  Keisuke Ishii vs Konosuke Takeshita in a D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 Block A Match – ****

#42 – From WWE NXT “Takeover: Philadelphia” on 1/27 –  The Undisputed Era (Bobby Fish & Kyle O’Reilly) (c) vs The Authors of Pain (Akem & Rezar) for the NXT Tag Team Championships – ****

In what was a very good month for tag team wrestling, this match gets lost in the shuffle, but I thought it was great. Akam sold the knee the whole match and we got the story of the smaller heels just outsmarting the bigger babyfaces by attacking a body part. Best of all, Era won the match clean, which I love to see.

#41 – From AAW “The Art Of War 2018” on 1/20 –  Besties in the World (Davey Vega & Mat Fitchett) (c) vs Keith Lee & Shane Strickland for the AAW Tag Team Championships – ****

#40 – From C3 “In The Mouth Of Madness” on 1/20 –  LAX (Ortiz & Santana) vs Monster Mafia (Ethan Page & Josh Alexander) – ****

#39 – From BJW “New Year 2018” on 1/2 –  Daichi Hashimoto (c) vs Ryuichi Kawakami for the BJW Strong World Heavyweight Championship – ****

#38 – From EVOLVE “EVOLVE 99” on 1/14 –  Keith Lee (c) vs Chris Dickinson for the WWN Championship – ****

#37 – From PROGRESS “Live at the Dome #3” on 1/10 –  Connor Mills vs Maverick Mayhew in a Natural Progression Series V Qualifying Match – **** 

#36 – From NJPW “Wrestle Kingdom 12” on 1/4 – Cody vs Kota Ibushi – ****

I think this is one of the more overrated matches of the month, but I still thought it was very good, just not quite great. Cody played the heel role well, and the Cross Rhodes off of the apron was a brutal spot that really helped me get into this match, as did the somewhat surprising victory for Kota, who really needed a win.

#35 – From EVOLVE “EVOLVE 99” on 1/14 – Jaka vs Matt Riddle – ****

Is Jaka on an exclusive deal with EVOLVE? Because he delivers in match after match but you never really hear about him outside of EVOLVE. He is blossoming into an excellent singles wrestler, and in a back and forth affair, with some excellent near falls, Riddle picks up the win after losing the previous night at EVOLVE 98.

#34 – From PROGRESS “Chapter 61” on 1/14 – Adam Brooks vs Will Ospreay – ****1/4

Generally, I’m not a big fan of random exhibition matches with no stakes, but this match was too good to leave off of the list. It started out with some comedy and ended as an epic banger of a match. These two just spend the match trying to outdo each other, and the Canadian Destroyer on the apron was nasty. Ospreay hit the imploding 450 and the Oscutter to get the victory.

#33 – From FCP/ATTACK! “WrestleHouse ’18” on 1/26 –  Team Calamari (Chief Deputy Dunne, Chris Brookes, Dan Moloney, Jordan Devlin & Mark Haskins) vs Team Sexy (Clint Margera, Millie McKenzie, MK McKinnan, Travis Banks & Trent Seven)

#32 – From PWC “The Wrestle Squanchers!” on 1/13 – Dick Riley vs Will Ospreay

#31 – From AJPW “New Year Wars 2018 Day 2” on 1/3 –  Wild Burning (Jun Akiyama and Takao Omori) (c) vs Violent Giants (Shuji Ishikawa and Suwama) for the AJPW World Tag Team Championships – ****1/4

Great main event as the Violent Giants win their title match that they received by winning the Real World Tag League 2017. This was a brutal, hard-hitting clash that the crows really god into. Ishikawa and Suwama make an absolutely awesome team and AJPW made the right decision by putting the belts on the big men, who won with the Splash Mountain Bomb from Shuji.

#30 – From FCP/ATTACK! “WrestleHouse ’18” on 1/26 –  Keith Lee vs Omari – ****1/4

#29 – From DDT “New Year Special 2018!” on 1/3 –  HARASHIMA, Jiro Kuroshio & Kazusada Higuchi vs Konosuke Takeshita, Mike Bailey & Shuji Ishikawa – ****1/4

#28 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 in Nerima” on 1/10 –  Konosuke Takeshita vs HARASHIMA in a D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 Block A Match – ****1/4

#27 – From WWE “Royal Rumble 2018” on 1/28 – Adam Cole vs Aiden English vs Andrade Almas vs Apollo Crews vs Baron Corbin vs Big E vs Bray Wyatt vs Cesaro vs Dolph Ziggler vs Elias vs Finn Balor vs Goldust vs Heath Slater vs Hurricane vs Jinder Mahal vs John Cena vs Kofi Kingston vs Matt Hardy vs Miz vs Randy Orton vs Rey Mysterio vs Rhyno vs Roman Reigns vs Rusev vs Sami Zayn vs Seth Rollins vs Sheamus vs Shinsuke Nakamura vs Titus O’Neil vs Xavier Woods in the Royal Rumble Match – ****1/4

I’m already tired from typing all those names, but this was a fantastic rumble. It is really hard to rate battle royal matches, but as far as those go, this one has to near the top. The comedy bit with Slater was actually funny, they displayed Almas as a legit threat, and the old vs new standoff with Balor, Nakamura, and Reigns staring down Rey, Orton, and Cena worked for me. Also, the right guy won, so that’s a thumbs up from me.

#26 – From Stardom “7th Anniversary” on 1/21 –  Queen’s Quest (AZM, HZK, Io Shirai, Momo Watanabe & Viper) vs Oedo Tai (Hana Kimura, Kagetsu, Kris Wolf, Natsu Sumire & Tam Nakano) in a Gauntlet Ten Women Tag Team Match

#25 – From Lucha Memes “Lucha Memes 1/7” on 1/7 – Ricky Marvin vs Keyra – ****1/4

#24 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 in Shimizu” on 1/13 –  Keisuke Ishii vs Tetsuya Endo in a D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 Block A Match – ****1/4

#23 – From WWE NXT “Takeover: Philadelphia” on 1/27 – Adam Cole vs Aleister Black in an Extreme Rules Match – ****1/4

This took a bit to get going, and I really disliked the run in (although at least it was short and made sense in storyline), but this was a fun plunder match. The spots in this match were crazy with Black being superkicked with a chair, off the top rope, through two tables, as well as Cole taking a nasty Ushigoroshi type move landing on the edges of two chairs back to back. Black won with the Black Mass to set up a match with Almas for the title at Takeover: NOLA.

#22 – From MLW “Zero Hour” on 1/11 – Penta El Zero M vs Rey Fenix – ****1/4

These two have probably wrestled hundreds of times throughout the years, and it showed here. The chemistry was off the charts, and the announcers built the match up as somewhat of a qualifier for the MLW Championship tournament, so it had some stakes. Tons of crazy spots and near falls in this one including a springboard Spanish Fly, and a second rope Canadian Destroyer. Pentagon won after snapping his brother’s arm and nailing the Pentagon Driver.

#21 – From TJP “Tokyo Joshi Pro ’18” on 1/4 –  Reika Saiki (c) vs Miyu Yamashita for the TOKYO Princess of Princess Championship – ****1/4

This was my first time watching TJP, and it was great. The two trade kicks early, but Saiki ducks one and Yamashita hits the ring post. Yamashita sold the foot inconsistently throughout the match, and that is what keeps it from a higher rating, but at the heights of it, this match is awesome. Yamashita hits a knee to win the title. Great high impact stuff, just wish the selling was a little better.

#20 – From NJPW “Wrestle Kingdom 12” on 1/4 –  The Young Bucks (Matt Jackson & Nick Jackson) (c) vs Roppongi 3K (Sho & Yoh) for the IWGP Junior Heavyweight Tag Team Championships – ****1/4

Matt & Yoh injured their backs early on, and both sold well throughout. There was an awesome spot with Nick and Sho torturing the other’s partner with kicks as if it were a competition. The Young Bucks kept calling 3k “young boys” and taunted them with Boston Crabs. The Bucks hit a Meltzer Driver, and Nick locks in the sharpshooter on the injured back of Yoh and he taps. Fun opener.

#19 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 in Shin Kiba” on 1/14 –  Shuji Ishikawa vs Kazusada Higuchi in a D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 Block B Match – ****1/4

#18 – From NOAH “Navigation to the Future Night 1” on 1/6 –  Kenou (c) vs Kaito Kiyomiya for the GHC Heavyweight Championship – ****1/4

This one told the story of Kenou’s brutality vs Kiyomiya’s fighting spirit. Kiyomiya kept getting back up every time Kenou sent him down, until Kenou hits a kicks to the head, and the referee calls for the bell. Knock Out finishes are very rare, but it worked here, as it shows that Kiyomiya never gave up. A great performance from both men, who will be there to stay in the heavyweight title scene.

#17 – From EVOLVE “EVOLVE 98” on 1/13 –  Zack Sabre Jr. (c) vs Darby Allin for the EVOLVE Championship – ****1/2

This wasn’t an epic match from an in-ring perspective, but the story truly was five stats. Darby Allin was just a jobber who got over with the fans, and he finally got his title shot here… and lost, but he hung with the superior wrestler in Zack Sabre Jr. Darby Allin wouldn’t give up, he kicked out of the European Combination, but made a fatal mistake going for the Coffin Drop, Sabre countered into an arm bar, and transitioned into the Ode to Jim Breaks whilst continuously stomping on Allin, and the ref has to stop the match. Just epic, Allin never tapped.

#16 – From ZERO1 “Happy New Year 2018” on 1/1 –  Masato Tanaka (c) vs Yusaku Obata for the ZERO1 World Heavyweight Championship – ****1/2

#15 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 in Osaka” on 1/7 –  Konosuke Takeshita vs Tetsuya Endo in a D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 Block A Match – ****1/2

#14 – From 3CW “Hysteria” on 1/27 – Keith Lee vs Justin Sysum

#13 – From EVOLVE “EVOLVE 99” on 1/14 – WALTER vs Zack Sabre Jr. – ****1/2

Really nice big powerhouse vs smaller technician match. It was fun to see Sabre fighting from the bottom for once, as he normally dominates his matches. Sabre tried to beat WALTER at his own game, and it burned him. Finish comes as WALTER counters the Triangle Choke, lifting Sabre into a powerbomb, and then a second, after Sabre kicks out of the first, gets the job done. This will hopefully set up a title match in the coming months.

#12 – From RevPro “High Stakes 2018” on 1/20 –  Moustache Mountain (Trent Seven & Tyler Bate) (c) vs Suzuki-Gun (Minoru Suzuki & Zack Sabre Jr.) for the RevPro Undisputed British Tag Team Championships – ****1/2

We rarely get to see WWE and NJPW wrestlers face off, but this was loads of fun. It started out with some comedy, but by the end of the match, it was a classic. An awesome finishing sequence with everyone trading moves ending with a Tyler Driver to Suzuki. Everyone staggers to their feet, and trade shots until Sabre locks Seven into the octopus, and Suzuki hits the Gotch Piledriver on Bate to win the titles.

#11 – From AJPW “New Year Wars 2018 Day 1” on 1/2 –  Joe Doering (c) vs Zeus for the Triple Crown Championship – ****1/2

Just two big dudes wailing away on eachother. This was awesome. Joe Doering’s story is incredible, he beat cancer, and now is going on a crazy reign as Triple Crown Champion. The lariats these two threw were nasty, and Doering used his size well throughout the match. Doering hit Zeus with the Revolution Bomb in a match that put All Japan on the map as a promotion to watch this year.

#10 – From NJPW “Wrestle Kingdom 12” on 1/4 –  Minoru Suzuki (c) vs Hirooki Goto for the NEVER Openweight Championship in a Hair vs Hair Death Match – ****1/2

Suzuki locked Goto in the sleeper hold early, and this move looked nasty, and Goto looked like he was legitimately out cold. After that, every time Goto would fire up, Suzuki would laugh it off with ease. Suzuki locked in a guillotine on the ropes, and Goto countered, hitting an ushigoroshi off the top, then hitting the reverse GTR, then the GTR proper to get the victory in an awesome underdog vs maniacal villain match.

#9 – From NJPW “The New Beginning in Sapporo Day 2” on 1/28 –  Roppongi 3K (Sho & Yoh) (c) vs The Young Bucks (Matt Jackson & Nick Jackson) for the IWGP Junior Heavyweight Tag Team Championships – ****1/2

The rematch was even better than the original here. They went back to the back injury angle from their Wrestle Kingdom match, and Matt’s selling in this match was so believable. Crazy spots from the Bucks, Nick Jackson hits the assisted swanton, but back in and Matt can’t do the powerbomb because of the back so he locks in the sharpshooter, but the deeper he sinks it in, the more it hurts his own back. Awesome selling here. Matt finally has to let go and Yoh counters it into a roll-up as a callback to the Bucks vs Roppongi Vice match at Wrestle Kingdom 11.

#8 – From NJPW “Wrestle Kingdom 12” on 1/4 –  Marty Scurll (c) vs Hiromu Takahashi vs KUSHIDA vs Will Ospreay for the IWGP Junior Heavyweight Championship – ****1/2

This match surpassed my crazy expectations. Ospreay was positioned as a star coming out of this, and his moonsault off of a lighting rig looks crazier every time I see it. Takahashi kicked out of the imploding 450, then hit the Time Bomb, but Scurll pulled out the ref. Back in the ring, Ospreay recovers and nails Scurll with the Oscutter to win the title.

#7 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 in Shinjuku” on 1/5 –  Mike Bailey vs Shuji Ishikawa in a D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 Block B Match – ****1/2

The first night of the first DDT Grand Prix featured an absolute banger of a match between Ishikawa and Bailey. Ishikawa ragdolled Bailey around the ring for the beginning, but Bailey just would not stay down. Bailey fired up with kicks and hit his Shooting Star Kneedrop for a near fall. Shuji hits a lariat, followed by Splash Mountain to pick up the win. Must watch.

#6 – From DDT “D-Ou Grand Prix 2018 The Final” on 1/28 –  HARASHIMA vs Shuji Ishikawa in the D-King Grand Prix Final – ****1/2

 I haven’t heard a lot of hype for this one as a MOTY contender, but I thought this match was absolutely awesome. The video package before the match told the story of their previous encounter over a decade ago, and when these two got in the ring, it was awesome, anything with Ishikawa always is. Ishikawa won after a brutal match with tons of near falls.

#5 – From NJPW “Wrestle Kingdom 12” on 1/4 –  Kenny Omega (c) vs Chris Jericho in a No DQ Match for the IWGP United States Championship – ****3/4

I’m a little bit lower on this match than some, but I still thought that this one was just awesome, and passed all expectations by leaps and bounds. I know a lot of people were able to look past it, but I’m not going to lie, the confusing rope breaks (after Jericho earlier said there were none) annoyed me, but it was the best Jericho match in years. I can not praise these two enough for over delivering on a spectacle match on the big stage. The table spot, the blood, the One-Winged Angel on the chair, it was all great.

#4 – From PROGRESS “Chapter 62” on 1/28 –  WALTER (c) vs Timothy Thatcher for the PROGRESS Atlas Championship – ****3/4

Five of my top nine matches game from that weekend of the 27th and 28th, what a crazy weekend that was. This is also the second of five matches I have at ****3/4+. The brutality of this match was near unwatchable at times. WALTER chopped Thatcher so hard that Thatcher’s chest was bleeding at points. The fellow Ringkampf members laid into one another, and Thatcher’s fighting spirit got him over with the crowd. WALTER retains the title with a Tiger Bomb and the two shake hands after the match. The second of five matches I think you can realistically call Match of the Year contenders.

#3 – From NJPW “Wrestle Kingdom 12” on 1/4 –  Kazuchika Okada (c) vs Tetsuya Naito for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship – ****3/4

Originally I had this match lower, but on rewatch, it improves dramatically, maybe I was just angry about Naito losing. The story here was beautiful, as the “Tranquilo” Naito that had turned on the fans since losing the main event of Wrestle Kingdom 9 gave way to a little bit of the “Stardust Genius” Naito. Naito went for the stardust press and missed, but this is most notable in the closing sequence. Naito hits the Destino, but he listens to the crowd, and goes for it again, just to be sure, instead of playing it cool… and Okada makes him pay. Tombstone, Rainmaker, 1,2,3.

#2 – From NJPW “The New Beginning in Sapporo Day 1” on 1/27 –  Hiroshi Tanahashi (c) vs Minoru Suzuki for the IWGP Intercontinental Title – ****3/4

So well done, Tanahashi sold tremendously, and Suzuki played the sadistic madman perfectly. This match didn’t have many nearfalls, and it was still great. Suzuki tortured the knee throughout, and when Tanahashi went for the High Fly Flow, he landed on he knee, making matters worse. The finish comes as Suzuki hits the Gotch Piledriver, but instead of pinning, he goes back to the knee bar. You would think the overconfidence would lead to his downfall as Tana crawled to the ropes, but Suzuki just reapplies the move in the middle of the ring, torquing on it further, and the referee stops the match.

#1 – From WWE NXT “Takeover: Philadelphia” on 1/27 –  Andrade Almas (c) vs Johnny Gargano for the NXT Championship – *****

Five. Stars. Perfection. I’ll hear your case for any of the matches I have 2-5, but to me, this is the Match of the Year so far. It had a lovable babyface, and a maniacal villain, and it had one of the hottest crowds I had ever seen. The final ten minutes had me gasping for air as the two traded near fall after near fall. This match had Zelina Vega finally getting her comeuppance at the hands of Johnny’s wife Candice Michelle, and the only thing that would have made it better would have been if they gave Gargano the title. This match had more near falls I bit on than any other this year, and the post-match angle with Ciampa likely sets up a match between him and Gargano at Takeover: NOLA.

WRESTLER OF THE MONTH

This is simple, five points for a ***** match, four for a ****3/4, three for a ****1/2, two for a ****1/4, and one for a ****, with your highest rated match as a tiebreaker.

1) Shuji Ishikawa – 12 points
2) Minoru Suzuki – 10 points
3) WALTER – 9 points
4) Zack Sabre Jr. – 9 points
5) Konosuke Takeshita – 9 points
6) Will Ospreay – 8 points
7) HARASHIMA – 8 points
8) Andrade Almas – 7 points
9) Keith Lee – 7 points
10) Timothy Thatcher – 6 points

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10:31 – A night well done

We beat everyone tonight, that is what happens when you rely on pure statistics, I’ll see everyone for the various special elections to come in 2018! Have a good night, hope you enjoyed the coverage, and have a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

10:25 – Before EVERYONE

Not the AP, ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, 538, Politico, the New York Times, no one, called this race at 10:20, but it is over, watch, this Jones margin is only increasing.

10:20 – BREAKING: Doug Jones Wins Alabama Senate Election

We have called the race, votes pouring in cities, all Jones.

10:17 – Here are those benchmarks

Votes keep coming in, and Jones is still running about five points ahead of those benchmarks.

Tuscaloosa (expected 50-50): Jones 55-43 (17/55 precincts in)
Montgomery (expected 67-33): Jones 73-27 (48/99 precincts in)
Jefferson (expected 65-35): Jones 76-22 (125/172 precincts in)
Mobile (expected 55-45): Jones 67-33 (63/190 precincts in)

10:13 – Things on track for Jones

The margins in those four counties have shrunk a little bit, but Jones is well on pace for a 1-3 point victory statewide. We are getting near prediction mode, I’d have Jones somewhere between 75 and 85 percent, but it is not over yet.

10:05 – BREAKING: Jones takes lead statewide

But it is REALLY close, we could be headed for a recount, which is automatically triggered in races closer than half a percent.

10:02 – Those margins won’t hold

As more precincts come in, Moore is surely going to close the gap in those four population centers, by how much will decide whether or not Republicans hold the state.

9:57 – An Update on the Benchmarks

Big vote updates in Montgomery and Mobile seem to be what gave Jones the extra three points

Tuscaloosa (expected 50-50): Jones 55-43 (17/55 precincts in)
Montgomery (expected 67-33): Jones 73-28 (38/99 precincts in)
Jefferson (expected 65-35): Jones 83-16 (83/172 precincts in)
Mobile (expected 55-45): Jones 61-39 (55/190 precincts in)

9:52 – Big vote dump

Moore’s lead just got cut in half after a lot of the population centers dumped some votes.

9:50 – How this is going to break down

Right now, Moore leads by six, but the remaining counties are big population centers, guaranteed to go to Jones, the question is by how much, and how many people will show up to vote

9:40 – We said it would come down to turnout…

Black Belt counties have had higher turnout than 2014
White rural counties have had lower turnout than 2014

It is really that simple… I’d have Jones at a 2/3 chance of winning.

 9:37 – Update on my Benchmarks

Tuscaloosa (expected 50-50): Jones 55-43 (17/55 precincts in)
Montgomery (expected 67-33): Jones 87-13 (3/99 precincts in)
Jefferson (expected 65-35): Jones 82-18 (63/172 precincts in)
Mobile (expected 55-45): Jones 77-23 (11/190 precincts in)

9:32 – A Big swing

Previously Jones was as low as 22 cents to the dollar, now all the way up to 55…

9:28 – Turnout

Looking at these counties, I’ve noticed that both candidates are doing about as well as I expected them too, but what you might not have realized is that turnout in Democratic counties is generally much higher than expected based on the primaries and the last midterm election.

9:27 – First “Black Belt” county fully in

Perry County is fully in, and Doug Jones has won by almost 60%, that is about where he should be.

9:23 – BREAKING: Jones officially a favorite in betting odds

I told you guys to watch those benchmarks, and they’ve only gotten better for Jones. He has officially taken a lead in the PredictIt live betting model, keep an eye, it swung 20% in the span of minutes earlier.

9:15 – Check in on my Benchmarks

A REMINDER

My two counties to watch for Doug Jones: Jones needs to win Tuscaloosa, and get around 75% in Montgomery (+/- 3%)

My two counties to watch for Roy Moore: Moore needs to hit 1/3 of the vote in Jefferson, and 45% in Mobile (+/- 3%)

Right Now:

Tuscaloosa: Jones 73-25 (2/55 precincts in)
Montgomery: Jones 87-13 (3/99 precincts in)
Jefferson: Jones 84-15 (43/172 precincts in)
Mobile: Jones 70-30 (1/190 precincts in)

Jones beating all four benchmarks, but very few votes in 3/4 counties.

9:07 – FIRST FULL COUNTY!!! WOOHOO

Limestone county finishes at Moore +19, he won it by 23 when he won the state by four back in 2012… so we’re still at a dead heat.

9:05 – Right as I say that

Right when I say to buy on Jones, he is back up! Pushing 40 percent, this is a roller coaster ride. (If you somehow bought it when he was at 20%, you can sell it back and double your money)

9:03 – If I was a betting man…

I’d have it at a 50-50 split still, right where I was before polls closed. If you are a betting person, buy Jones at 20 cents to the dollar.

9 – Moore rebounds

Moore went from a 50% a few minutes ago, all the way up to 80 once Moore took the statewide lead

8:58 – Moore Takes the statewide lead

More just took the statewide lead,  but he is still behind in all four of my benchmark counties, betting markets also snapped back towards Moore violently.

8:56 – Limestone County Part 2

More results are in in the Northern county of Limestone (we are choosing this one just because it has the most precincts reporting) and now Moore, who would expect around a 20 point victory their, is up by 24.

8:50 – Those Betting Markets

The PredictIt live betting model has Jones up to 49%, up 16 points in the past hour, I’m telling you, watch those benchmark counties.

8:47 – Limestone County

Limestone County is the only county with more than half of their precincts reporting, and Jones is outrunning Hillary by 15-20 points.

8:42 – Doug Jones might have a shot?

Jones is up 10% in the past hour in the PredictIt live betting model, and while we still are at 2% in, Jones is beating both of his bellwethers I set, and Moore isn’t meeting either of his via the New York Times live results by county.

8:30 – Some Bellwethers for a Moore/Jones win

My two counties to watch for Doug Jones: Jones needs to win Tuscaloosa, and get around 75% in Montgomery (+/- 3%)

My two counties to watch for Roy Moore: Moore needs to hit 1/3 of the vote in Jefferson, and 45% in Mobile (+/- 3%)

8:22 – <1% Reporting, don’t get fooled!

8:08 – The Full Exit Poll

Here is the poll by CNN, shows a race within a percentage point with some very basic reverse engineering.

8 – Results By Race

BLACK VOTERS – Jones 95/5 Moore
WHITE VOTERS – Jones 27/70 Moore

The 30% Black Electorate is above what would be considered a great night for Jones, but even that wouldn’t be enough to make up a 40+ point loss among white voters.

7:55 – The Preview, Exit Polls, and The Prediction

CNN exit poll: electorate today 65% white, 30% black, 2% Latino

— Jonathan Hardison (@FOX6Hardison) December 12, 2017

NBC Alabama exits:
Voters believe allegations: 49-45
Voters approve of Trump: 48-48
Abortion should be illegal: 54-40

— Anthony Michael Kreis (@AnthonyMKreis) December 12, 2017

Same CNN exit poll has voters giving Doug Jones a 49/49 favorable to unfavorable rating, same exit polling gives Roy Moore a 55-42 unfavorable to favorable rating

— Jonathan Hardison (@FOX6Hardison) December 12, 2017

Early exit poll: Do you think the allegations of sexual misconduct against Roy Moore are:

Definitely or probably true: 49%
Definitely or probably false: 45%

Latest: https://t.co/1gpY6ExSyA pic.twitter.com/tP12VPc4T8

— NBC News (@NBCNews) December 12, 2017

 

All right, I know that is a lot of information, but let me break it down. First off, the baseline I’ll be using is my demographic + polling model. Normally, I’ve noticed this model is skewed towards Democrats, but in a heightened state of Democratic awareness, it has performed better than my more turnout based models during Georgia-6th and Election Day last month. This model was separated by a few thousandths of a percent between the two candidates. Taking into account recent polling trends, I changed my projections from a toss-up to about a 65% chance for Roy Moore to win. Then, the exit polls came in. The most telling number to me was the 30% black makeup of the electorate, higher than even my tossup model projected. If the exit polls are correct, I would put Jones as a favorite, but if you remember back to the 2016 presidential election, exit polls normally OVER represent black and college-educated voters, and therefore over-represent Democratic candidates. Right now, I’m back to a tossup as we are going towards poll closing.

A couple other notes

Trump’s favorability is 48-48 among voters, while among the population of the state as a whole, it is a double-digit margin for Trump. 

Doug Jones’ favorability is above Roy Moore’s favorability in the same poll, and the “shares my values” poll (not pictured) also shows Jones, who is pro-choice, ahead of Moore. I would bet that if Jones was pro-life, he would be miles ahead.

11:25 – Good Night! Here is the look at all of our calls tonight

I would expect to see some Republican retirements in the house in the coming weeks, because tonight was an absolutely disastrous night for Republicans. Of my “Fifteen Most Important Races Tonight” Democrats won 13, Republicans won 1, and the final one is headed to a runoff that seems to favor Democrats. Democrats also look poised to tie or take control of the Virginia House of Delegates, which was held by a Republican supermajority, I had rated that as “Likely Republican” the second-safest rating possible, only behind “Safe Republican”. The next time I will join you for election results will probably be in a few weeks (December 12th) for the Alabama US Senate election, assuming the polling is close.

Virginia Governor – Democrat
Virginia Lt. Governor – Democrat
Virginia Attorney General – Democrat
Georgia’s Sixth State Senatorial district – Democrat
Atlanta Mayor – Headed to a runoff
St. Petersburg Mayor – Democrat
Manchester Mayor – Democrat
Charlotte Mayor – Democrat
New Jersey Governor – Democrat
Maine Question 2 (Medicaid Expansion) – Yes
New York City Mayor – Democrat
New York Question 1 (Constitutional Convention) – No
Westchester County Executive – Democrat
Utah’s Third Congressional District – Republican
Washington’s 45th State Senatorial District – Democrat

Virginia House of Delegates

Democrats – 49
Republicans – 47
Headed to recounts – 4

11:16 – Democrats now control the entire West Coast

The only legislative body on the west coast not controlled by Democrats is the Washington State Senate, and right now, the Democrat Manka Dhingra looks to be poised to take over the 45th district, which would put the Dems over the top.

11:12 – New Jersey

Democrats were never going to lose New Jersey’s state senate, but they do pick up one Republican-held seat, increasing their majority.

10:53 – Coming up on the final race of the day

Manka Dhingra is the Democrat running for Washington’s 45th state senate seat, the 45th is a Republican held seat, and a win for Dhingra would mean a Democratic majority in the Washington state house, the only legislative body held by Republicans on the West Coast.

10:50 – Results slow in Atlanta Mayoral

While the race will go to a runoff, it’s looking like the Democrats will win that. The “Republican” in the race, Mary Norwood, is 18 points behind the leading Democrat.

Mayor – Atlanta – General

5 of 170 Precincts Reporting – 3%

Name Party Votes Vote % Bottoms, Keisha Lance Dem 12,039 34% Norwood, Mary Ind 5,672 16% Mitchell, Ceasar Dem 4,362 12% Woolard, Cathy Dem 4,248 12% Fort, Vincent  Dem 4,092 12%

10:35 – Update on the House of Delegates

I can now call Districts 68 and 85 as Democratic pickups. As it stands.

Democrats – 49
Republicans – 47
No Call – 4

The four seats in question are all within 200 votes and will probably be recounted.

House of Delegates – District 27 – General

21 of 22 Precincts Reporting – 95%

Name Party Votes Vote % Robinson, Roxann (i) GOP 13,815 50% Barnett, Larry Dem 13,677 50%

House of Delegates – District 28 – General

23 of 23 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote % Thomas, Robert GOP 11,824 50% Cole, Joshua Dem 11,720 50%

House of Delegates – District 40 – General

22 of 23 Precincts Reporting – 96%

Name Party Votes Vote % Tanner, Donte Dem 14,644 50% Hugo, Timothy (i) GOP 14,459 50%

House of Delegates – District 94 – General

24 of 24 Precincts Reporting – 100%

Name Party Votes Vote % Yancey, David (i) GOP 11,597 49% Simonds, Shelly Dem 11,585 49% Bartley, Michael Lib 675 3%

10:29 – Some other news out of Georgia (HD-119)

This didn’t make my list of the 15 most important races of the day, but Democrat Jonathan Wallace beat Tom Lord by over 35 points in what was a Republican held district, an incredible swing.

Name Party Votes Vote % Wallace, Jonathan Dem 4,482 57% Lord, Tom GOP 1,573 20%

10:27 – Dems ends Republican supermajority in Georgia

Earlier I called this race as heading to a primary with a probable Democratic pickup, now we can reclassify it to a guaranteed D pickup, as the top two vote getters are both Democrats, meaning that the runoff will be guaranteed to produce a Democratic pickup.

10:13 – The First Republican Win

Third parties have picked up a significant part of the vote, but while Democrats are going to make some gains in the margins, Utah’s Third congressional district will remain red.

(Rep) John Curtis: 59.4%
(Dem) Kathie Allen: 25.2%
(UUT) Jim Bennett: 9.2%
Other Third Parties: 6.2%

10:04 – Polls close in Utah-03

This should be a sure thing as Republican’s first win in our list of the 15 major races tonight, but I thought the same thing about the House of Delegates, who knows? Jason Chaffetz won this seat by nearly 50 points a year ago, so even in what has been a wave day for Democrats, this should be an R win.

10 – Razor thin in the remaining six districts

District 27 – Republican leads by 138 votes
District 28 – Republican leads by 104 votes
District 40 – Democrat leads by 135 votes
District 68 – Democrat leads by 465 votes
District 85 – Democrat leads by 447 votes
District 94 – Republican leads by 12 votes

9:48 – Two more calls in the Democratic Checklist

Westchester County Executive

(R) Rob Astorino 40%
(D) George Latimer 60% (CALLED)

Maine Question 2 (Medicaid Expansion)

Yes – 59% (CALLED)
No – 41%

9:30 – More Updates!

Kelly Convirs-Fowler is Democrat’s 13th pickup, and Riley Ingram wins on the Republican side in District 62

Democrat – 47
Republican – 47
No Call – 6

9:24 – Updated VA-HD numbers

I can make a call in District 86 for Republican Chris Stolle. That brings our total to this

Democrat – 46
Republican – 46
No Call – 8 (Democrats lead in four)

9:14 – We can make a call on if there will be a constitutional convention

Yes – 24%
No – 76%

And that is still without New York City in, another, while expected, win for Democratic groups.

9:04 – Call in NYC Mayor

Democratic incumbent Bill De Blasio has won the NYC Mayoral race, and I would expect he wins by 30+ points

9:02 – How I see the House Of Delegates

Republican – 45
Democrat – 46
No Call – 9

9 – Calls made so far

Virginia Governor – Called Democrat
Virginia Lt. Governor – Called Democrat
Virginia Attorney General – Called Democrat
Virginia House of Delegates – No call, current rating: Toss-Up
Georgia’s Sixth Legislative district – Called, headed to a run-off
Atlanta Mayor – Called, headed to a run-off
St. Petersburg Mayor – Called Democrat
Manchester Mayor – Called Democrat
Charlotte Mayor – Called Democrat
New Jersey Governor – Called Democrat
Maine Question 2 (Medicaid Expansion) – No call, current rating: Lean Yes

8:53 – Democrats could break Supermajority in Georgia State Senate

	GA-6 State Senate
	Howard, Jaha	Dem	319	35%
	Jordan, Jen	Dem	241	27%
	Bentley, Matt	GOP	150	17%
	Aldridge, Leah	GOP	84	9%

8:47 – Maine Medicaid Expansion?

Maine’s ballot initiative on medicaid expansion currently leads by seven points over the no votes, I would expect that to tighten as more rural areas come in, no call yet.

8:43 – This is looking like a catastrophic night for Republicans

Democrats have already picked off 12 Republican delegates, they lead in five more, and are down with a chance in about eight after that. A note, they need 17 to take control of the house, I rated that as a safe bet for Republicans to take control of. Ten seats would’ve been a great night, the fact that 25 are still in play is shocking.

8:36 – Updated Margins in my top ten potential VA-HD pick ups

VA-2 (Prince William) – D+53 (CALLED)
VA-12 (Blacksburg) – D+17 (CALLED)
VA-13 (Prince William) – D+9 (CALLED)
VA-31 (Prince William) – D+15 (CALLED)
VA-32 (Loudoun) – D+18 (CALLED)
VA-42 (Fairfax) – D+12
VA-50 (Manassas) – D+9 (CALLED)
VA-67 (Fairfax) – D+17
VA-85 (Virginia Beach) – D+1
VA-94 (Newport News) – R+2

Democrats lead in 14 (!!!) Republican held state house districts, that outperforms even the most outrageous projections.

8:20 – Projected Margin in Virginia

I can officially call the state of Virginia’s margin as a 8-12 point win for the Democrat Ralph Northam, the race was called overall for Northam close to an hour ago.

8:11 – Shocking results in Virginia

Not only did I call all three races for Democrats in the first hour, D’s look like they have a shot to take the state house, not a great chance, but a chance, which seemed unthinkable coming into the night. This was the map after the last elections.

8:03 – Calls made in NJ Gov, VA LtGov, and VA Attorney General

Projection: Democrats Phil Murphy, Justin Fairfax, and Mark Herring all are projected winners. Fairfax and Herring looking like five point winners, Murphy by a 15-20 point margin.

8:01 – Charlotte mayoral race looks good for Dems

(D) – Vi Lyles 64%
(R) – Kenny Smith 34%

7:57 – Looking like a really good night for D’s in Virginia

Here is a look at the results in my ten potential Democratic pickups.

VA-2 (Prince William) – D+56
VA-12 (Blacksburg) – D+10
VA-13 (Prince William) – D+7
VA-31 (Prince William) – D+9
VA-32 (Loudoun) – D+18
VA-42 (Fairfax) – No Results
VA-50 (Manassas) – D+16
VA-67 (Fairfax) – D+10
VA-85 (Virginia Beach) – R+3
VA-94 (Newport News) – R+4

7:54 – A milestone in VA-13

We have called Virginia’s 13th legislative district for Danica Roem, who unseats incumbent Bob Marshall by six points. Roem is the first transgender person to hold a seat in any state house.

7:53 – We make a call in Manchester, NH

Democrat Joyce Craig has unseated incumbent Mayor Ted Gatsas in Manchester by about six points.

7:47 – Northam wins

Northam is only up a half point statewide, but he is dominating in Northern Virginia, where Gillespie needed to be competitive, this race is over. Northam up 31 in Fairfax and 21 in Loudoun, far outperforming Clinton, who won by five statewide.

(D) Ralph Northam – 49.6%
(R) Ed Gillespie – 49.2%
(L) Cliff Hyra – 1.2%

7:45 – Some bad news for Gillespie

Gillespie is down 19 in Loudoun, that is extremely bad news for him, he needed to be within five there to win statewide. It is still early, but if he can’t close that gap it looks like a tough path for him.

7:40 – First Race Call

First Official Call: (D) Rick Kriseman looks to have won reelection in an expensive reelection campaign by about two points.

7:37 – My thoughts on the early Virginia results

It is so, so early, but Northam is in a good spot right now. He is losing statewide, but if you remember back to 2016, Democrats always fall behind early. Northam is outperforming Clinton in Northern Virginia.

7:18 – Some of the smaller races

Atlanta Mayor – you need to get 50% to win here, and in what is essentially a jungle primary, nobody seems to have a chance to do that, with the highest vote-getter receiving just 25% in the polls. I would guess Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms wins the primary, but independent Mary Norwood also has a shot.

Charlotte Mayor – The incumbent Democratic mayor was defeated in the primary by Vi Lyles. The only polling in the race shows Lyles with just a one point lead over Republican Kenny Smith, even though Charlotte is a heavy Democratic city.

Manchester Mayor – This has increased interest because of multiple 2020 candidates campaigning. Democrat Joyce Craig has a chance to unseat Republican mayor Ted Gatsas, who has held the mayorship since 2009.

Westchester Executive – Republican incumbent Robert Astorino, who ran for governor a few years ago, looks to hold on against Democrat George Latimer, in what is a heavy Democratic town, the most recent polling gives Latimer a three point lead.

Atlanta Mayor rating: Toss-Up
Charlotte Mayor rating: Lean Democrat
Manchester Mayor rating: Likely Democrat
Westchester Executive rating: Lean Democrat

7:06 – Potential D Pickups in the Virginia House of Delegates

Here are some House of Delegates races to watch in Virginia, all are REPUBLICAN held at the moment, I note the district, area, and the Democratic nominee.

VA-2 (Prince William) – Jennifer Carroll Foy
VA-12 (Blacksburg) – Chris Hurst
VA-13 (Prince William) – Danica Roem
VA-31 (Prince William) – Elizabeth Guzman
VA-32 (Loudoun) – David Reid
VA-42 (Fairfax) – Kathy Tran
VA-50 (Manassas) – Lee Carter
VA-67 (Fairfax) – Karrie Delaney
VA-85 (Virginia Beach) – Cheryl Turpin
VA-94 (Newport News) – Shelly Simonds

6:54 – New Jersey Preview

Here is a look at the polling in the past week in New Jersey

and a look at the 2016 election map

New Jersey Gubernatorial Rating: Safe Democrat

6:47 –  Virginia Preview

Here is a look at all the polling done in the past week.

and here is a look at the 2014 senatorial map, when Gillespie came within a couple points of defeating Democratic incumbent Mark Warner.

Northam is going to run up the margins in Northern Virginia, Richmond, Norfolk, and college towns like Harrisonburg and Charlottesville. This race will come down to turnout, Northam is from Eastern Virginia, and in Eastern Va and Richmond, black turnout is the key to Democrats getting elected statewide, and with Justin Fairfax on the ballot at the Lt. Governor spot, Northam hopes to energize that base. The far left wing of the party however, will be less energized after Northam flipped positions on sanctuary cities, saying that he now opposed them after Gillespie hit him with attack ads referencing gangs like MS13.

Virginia Gubernatorial Rating: Toss-Up
Virginia Lt. Gubernatorial Rating: Toss-Up
Virginia Attorney General Rating: Likely Democrat
Virginia House of Delegates (overall): Likely Republican

6:15 – What we are watching tonight

We will be watching 15 individual races tonight, as well as the Virginia House of Delegates in general, as Democrats attempt to break the Republican supermajority.

Red – Polls close at 7
Orange – Polls close at 7:30
Yellow – Polls close at 8
Green – Polls close at 9
Blue – Polls close at 10
Purple – Polls close at 11

Virginia Governor 
Virginia Lt. Governor
Virginia Attorney General
Virginia House of Delegates in general
Georgia’s Sixth Legislative district
Atlanta Mayor
St. Petersburg Mayor
Manchester Mayor
Charlotte Mayor
New Jersey Governor
Maine Question 2 (Medicaid Expansion)
New York City Mayor
New York Question 1 (Constitutional Convention)
Westchester County Executive
Utah’s Third Congressional District
Washington’s 45th State Senatorial District

GROUP C

Curaçao

FIFA Ranking: 68th
Best Gold Cup Performance: N/A
Coach: Remko Bicentini (Since 2016)

This will be Curaçao’s very first Gold Cup appearance, but the Caribbean side should not be underestimated. In the Carribbean Cup, a four-team tournament between the four Caribbean countries that qualified for the Gold Cup, Curaçao beat Martinique 2-1, and then shocked Jamaica 2-1. Don’t underestimate Bicentini’s squad.

El Savador

FIFA Ranking: 103rd
Best Gold Cup Performance: Quarterfinals (2002, 2003, 2011, 2013)
Coach: Eduardo Lara (Since 2016)

The Cuscatleco will come into this tournament as underdogs like always. But they were underdogs in 2011 and 2013 and made it to the knockout stage. In what is a wide open Group C, with no real favorite behind Mexico, El Savador could finish 2nd and make a run for the semis, or they couldn’t get a point.

Jamaica

FIFA Ranking: 76th
Best Gold Cup Performance: Runner-Up (2015)
Coach: Theodore Whitmore (Since 2016)

Jamaica comes into this tournament with something to prove. In the last Gold Cup (2015), Jamaica almost became the first non-mainland (US, Mexico, Canada) to win the Gold Cup, but El Tri defeated the Reggae Boys 3-1 in the Finals. Jamaica’s young squad also lost a heartbreaker to Curaçao in the Caribbean Cup Finals. Jamaica will be out for revenge, and they should be the favorites to finish second.

Mexico

FIFA Ranking: 16th
Best Gold Cup Performance: Champions (1993, 1996, 1998, 2003, 2009, 2011, 2015)

El Tri have won three of the last four Gold Cups, and they should be the favorite to defend their title. Mexico may have brought their “B Team” to America for the Gold Cup, but a B Team for Mexico is still heads above every other team in CONCACAF, save the US and Costa Rica.

GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS

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GROUP B

Martinique

FIFA Ranking: N/A
Best Gold Cup Performance: Quarterfinals (2002)
Coach: Jean-Marc Civault (Since 2016)

Martinique is another side like French Guiana that is technically an overseas department of France, so they are not actually a member of FIFA. Group B is wide open though, and if Martinique can get three points from Nicaragua, they could advance as one of the two best third-placed teams.

Nicaragua

FIFA Ranking: 105th
Best Gold Cup Performance: Group Stage (2009)
Coach: Henry Duarte (Since 2014)

Nicaragua was the last team to qualify for the Gold Cup. They qualified via a playoff between the fifth-placed teams in the Carribean and Haiti. Nicaragua faced Haiti in that playoff, and won 4-3 on aggregate after Juan Barrera scored a hat trick in the second leg.

Panama

FIFA Ranking: 52nd
Best Gold Cup Performance: Runner-Up (2005, 2013)
Coach: Hernan Dario Gomez (Since 2014)

Panama always surprises, in the 2015 Gold Cup, they finished third, in 2013 they finished second. They could get a tough draw in the Quarterfinals with a possible match up against Costa Rica, but right now they sit fourth in hexagonal qualifying, and have impressively gone 0-3-0 against Mexico, Costa Rica and the USA.

USA

FIFA Ranking: 35th
Best Gold Cup Performance: Champions (1991, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2013)
Coach: Bruce Arena (Since 2017)

Some may say the US is bringing it’s “B Squad” to the group stage of this tournament, but the Stars and Stripes can always call up players before the knockout stage, and it’s important for the Americans to get rest, as Arena has turned the US around after a terrible start in the Hexagonal. The “B Squad” beat Ghana in a friendly last week, and they should win Group B.

MATCH-BY-MATCH PREDICTIONS

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GROUP A

Canada

FIFA Ranking: 100th
Best Gold Cup Performance: Champions (2000)
Coach: Octavio Zambrano (Since 2017)

Canada is the only team outside of Mexico and the US ever to win a CONCACAF Gold Cup. This will be Head Coach Octavio Zambrano’s first major fixture with the Canadians. I would expect Canada to play more attack-minded in this tournament, possibly at the loss of their defense. Cyle Larin will not be joining the rest of his fellow Canadians after his DUI arrest, but even without one of their star players, Canada could still advance if they were able to drive up the margin against French Guiana.

Costa Rica

FIFA Ranking: 26th
Best Gold Cup Performance: Runner-Up (2002)
Coach: Óscar Ramírez (Since 2015)

In the ’07, ’09, ’11, and ’13 Gold Cups, Costa Rica won a grand total of zero games. Then, in 2014 everything changed as the Costa Ricans shocked the world, going undefeated against Uruguay, Italy, England, and Greece, before eventual third-place finishers; the Netherlands, beat Costa Rica on penalties in the quarterfinals. Ronald Matarrita, Bryan Ruiz, and Joel Campbell play on some of the top squads in Europe, and anything short of a Semis run would be dissapointing.

French Guiana

FIFA Ranking: N/a
Best Gold Cup Performance: N/a
Coach: Jaïr Karam (Since 2013)

French Guiana is not even a member of FIFA. Their manager is a PE teacher whose wikipedia page is two sentences long. Guiana’s roster is mainly made up of players from low-level French clubs, but they went on an incredible run to qualify for their first ever Gold Cup. Realistically speaking though, even one point would be a positive result.

Honduras

FIFA Ranking: 72nd
Best Gold Cup Performance: Runner-Up (1991)
Coach: Jorge Luis Pinto (Since 2014)

Group A is the only Group to have two squads that qualified for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Honduras did make it to the World Cup, but just a year later in the 2015 Gold Cup, they didn’t win a game. The Catrachos won this year’s Copa Centroamericana. With a match up against either Jamaica or El Savador in the quarterfinals if they were to finish second, they could be the favorites for the last semifinal spot alongside Costa Rica, Mexico, and the US.

MATCH-BY-MATCH PREDICTIONS

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10:05 – This is goodbye

These past two weeks covering the Virginia Gubernatorial primaries last week, and then tonight, have been a blast. The benchmark system I use to project races has worked out wonderfully, and I will continue tweaking it over the coming days as we get 100% reporting out of GA-06. The next time I will see you all in a live political setting will be in 4 and a half months for Election Day 2017. We will be covering the New Jersey and Virginia Gov and Lt. Gov races, as well as key general assembly races in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as a US House special election in Utah, and some key elections that could determine who controls the Washington State Senate. Make sure you come back for sports coverage during this political off-season, as we will have the CSD College Football Preview Online Magazine coming out in about two months, and plenty of other things like MLB Playoffs preview, NFL team previews, NBA Draft coverage, and much more.

When did everybody call the race?

9:53 – We called the race

9:53 – Nate Cohn calls the race
9:55 – Nate Wasserman calls the race
9:56 – DecisionDeskHQ calls the race
10:00 – Nate Silver calls the race
Unknown – AP Calls the race

9:53 – KAREN HANDEL (R) DEFEATS JON OSSOFF (D) IN GA-06 SPECIAL ELECTION

The early mail-in is looking bad for Ossoff, it’s over.

If you are just tuning in, at 9PM we called SC-05 for Ralph Norman (R).

9:50 – DeKalb mail in is in

Ossoff is up by less than 20% in DEKALB where he should be up huge. This race is pretty much over.

DeKalb County just reported absentee-by-mail (ABM) votes. #ga06 https://t.co/pirrro8jWk (PDF) pic.twitter.com/rbhRcVGHCi

— Greg Giroux (@greggiroux) June 21, 2017

9:48 – Here comes the mail in

If Ossoff doesn’t win this by over 50%, he’s done. He might need to win it by 60 to have a real shot at winning this. We should get it in shortly.

There are 27,138 #GA06 accepted mail ballots as of yesterday

— Michael McDonald (@ElectProject) June 21, 2017

9:44 – About Politico…

The Politico live tracker that was mentioned earlier was glitched on their end, while it said Ossoff was running 2 1/2 points better than in April, it meant the opposite, Dems were probably counting a lot on that last burst of Ossoff votes from each precinct Politico was projecting, but if those don’t exist, it might be enough to call race for Handel right now.

9:32 – The more we wait. The more GA-06 looks to stay red.

Handel is up about 13,000 votes district-wide, and the more we wait, the more that grows, I start to doubt mail-ins can make it up, he better hope he can make it up in DeKalb, but it seems we will get that answer soon.

Absentee mail-ins are coming in for DeKalb shortly, @Nate_Cohn

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) June 21, 2017

9:26 – An update on SC-05

We called this race for the Republican (Ralph Norman) at 9 o’clock, but the fact that Parnell continues to close the gap in what should be a double-digit GOP seat is impressive.

Wow, the last few York precincts have been particularly strong for Parnell (D). He could end up keeping Norman (R) margin under 4%. #SC05

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 21, 2017

9:24 – A solid reminder

Even if Ossoff loses, it will be by < 2%, that along with Parnell outperforming Clinton by like 13%, should be taken as good signs for Dems, even in defeat. WE HAVE STILL NOT CALLED ANYTHING.

One thing to remember: President Donald Trump literally picked where these special elections are taking place.

— Kevin Robillard (@PoliticoKevin) June 21, 2017

9:21 – Let’s take another look at those benchmarks

I said earlier the benchmarks for an Ossoff win would be

Fulton – about 50%
DeKalb – over 60%
Cobb – 40-45 depending on turnout

With a little under 2/3rds of votes counted

Fulton – 47.5%
DeKalb – 59%
Cobb – 40%

Too early to call it because of no mail-in vote yet, but it’s not looking good for Ossoff

9:15 – Handel up 20 in Cobb

Just a few minutes ago, Ossoff had this around 10-15, but a big Handel election day vote brings Handel up to 60% in the county, and just as I was bringing it to about even, we are back into the Handel +1/2 range.

9:12 – Fulton county looks good for Handel

Just as I said Ossoff was getting back into it, we get a big dump out of Fulton that puts Handel up about 5/6 percent in that district, Ossof needed to get at least 49% in that district, he will need mail-in ballots to come in big if he wants to reach that.

9:06 – Why GA-06 is so different from the norm

Often times Dems start ahead and lose ground as E-day vote comes in, Ossoff still won early vote, but he quickly dropped once Election Day vote came in, had that held, we would’ve been looking at Handel +3/4, but as precincts come fully in, the narrative shifts. Politico which is tracking only fully-completed precincts, actually has Ossoff doing 2-2.5 points better than he did in April. We shall see.

9PM – SC-05 CALLED FOR RALPH NORMAN

But it was much closer than expected. Parnell did very well compared to Clinton/polls, and the amount of African-American turnout bodes well for Dems in future, but SC-05 stays red.

8:56 – More Cobb County comes in

Cobb County (58-42 for R’s in a slight win in April) has some election day votes coming in, and it looks pretty good for Ossoff, this is why I said to hold the breaks on calling this for Handel, it’s still early.

8:53 – SC-05… 

Adding on to what I said about Ossoff being over-hyped being actually bad for Democrats, some think that Parnell not getting much attention may have actually helped him.

If Parnell loses #SC05 by 4-5%, lots of Ds will point fingers. But it’s possible he’s doing well *because* he wasn’t hyped, not despite it.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) June 21, 2017

8:50 – These races are practically the same at the moment

Both races have the Republican up two, I would expect that margin to go up in South Carolina, but no one expected Parnell to be this close to begin with. Also, election-day voting is looking better than expected for Ossoff, but I would still call Handel a roughly one point favorite in GA-06.

8:47 – Did Democrats hurt Ossoff by making GA-06 such a big deal?

Lots of people on Twitter right now are mentioning how Parnell, who got almost ZERO media coverage is vastly outperforming expectations, while Ossoff, who has been hyped up for months is slightly underperforming. Another thing, Democrats SHOULDN’T win the Georgia 6th, but by making it such a big deal, if they do lose, it will seem as a massive disappointment to Democratic voters, and could deppress turnout for state legislature races in VA, NJ, and WA later this year that could’ve been big Dem gains. Still way too early to call this for Handel, just pointing this out.

8:35 – Parnell slips in SC-05

York and Lancaster, two of the biggest counties population-wise in the district are both coming in for Norman, and therefore Parnell’s underdog bid slips in the overall vote, with lots of the heavy blue and AA areas already 100% in.

8:33 – Handel’s lead increases 

We are getting more and more Election Day voting in, and Handel’s lead is up to 2%.

8:30 – First Election Day voting in GA-06

Handel is up about 18 points in election day voting results out of Fulton

8:23 – Ossoff vs his “benchmarks” in GA-06

I said earlier the benchmarks for an Ossoff win would be

Fulton – about 50%
DeKalb – over 60%
Cobb – 40-45 depending on turnout

so far he is at

Fulton – 49%
DeKalb – 60%
Cobb – 45%

8:19 – A Democratic Upset in SC-05?

I doubt it, as it’s mainly just the blue areas reporting so far, but it seems Archie Pernell (The Democrat) is doing much better than Clinton in the district.

8:10 – All the early vote is in

Ossoff wins it 51-49, that is FANTASTIC news for Handel. For Ossoff to have any shot, he has to kill it in mail-in, and come closer than expected in election-day.

8:07 – DeKalb early vote

Ossoff up 60-40 in DeKalb early vote, that is… not good for him. Interestingly, both Ossoff and Handel doing worse than expected in their strongholds.

8:05 – Cobb County comes in

Cobb County is in, 55-45 for Handel, which is bad for her, that went 58-42 for Republicans in the primary.

8:03 – OH BOY

Ossoff takes the lead after DeKalb comes in.

7:57 – Hypothetically…

If Fulton stays where it is (<3 point lead for Handel) and the rest is in line with the primary, we’re talking about a extremely tight race, like, Handel +1.

7:52 – SC-05 shifts back in Norman’s favor

The AP still has Parnell up big, but our tracker at the top of the screen from DecisionDeskHQ has swung back to Norman.

7:46 – SC-05 looking interesting

AP has Parnell up 21 points, but of course, early vote will normally be good for Democrats.

7:40 – Big Dump out of Fulton county

Handel (R) – 51.4%
Ossoff (D) – 48.6%

That is good for Handel with about 1/4 of the vote counted already.

7:36 – Live vote trackers!

I’ve added a live SC-05 vote tracker to the GA-06 tracker, both located at the top of the page.

7:34 – WE HAVE VOTES

Sixteen to be exact, Handel 9 – Ossoff 7

7:12 – Still Waiting…

 

pic.twitter.com/MztrFFPrMk

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 20, 2017

7:10 – 538’s benchmarks for a surprise D-win in the SC-5th

As we wait for results…. this helpful graphic from fivethiryeight

7:03 – Live results tracker from Decision Desk HQ found at the top of the screen

Big thanks to them for their great work!

6:59 – HERE. WE. GO. The biggest special election… ever? POLLS CLOSE IN ONE MINUTE

I fully endorse Georgia 6 hyperbole skepticism, but like … it actually is the most important special election ever, right?

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) June 20, 2017

6:13 – Turnout, turnout, turnout.

That is the magic word, The amount of turnout compared between DeKalb and Cobb might decide this election. I will be back at poll closing, but I leave you with these contrasting tweets. First, DeKalb (Ossoff county) is having higher turnout early in the day then before, but later in the day, DeKalb got rainy. The question is, does the rain detract Ossoff voters, or does the early trend continue?

This is about a thousand more votes than were cast at this point in the day in-person on 4/18 in DeKalb. #GA06 https://t.co/piD2I6nAUk

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) June 20, 2017

GA-6 is soaking wet pic.twitter.com/1tKS0nzzgO

— John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) June 20, 2017

6:09 – What would a win do for either side in GA-06?

To be frank, not much. Republicans will spin it is a win even if Handel just barely eeks out, but this should be a district that the GOP is winning by double digits every cycle. If Ossoff won, Dems will celebrate, and it will be a good sign that they could take back the house, but this race is a bit of an aberration, this is the most expensive house race in history, and not every Democrat in 2018 are going to raise 20-30 million dollars like Ossoff did.

6:05 – No, but really, who is going to win GA-06

Honestly, I would have to edge toward a Handel win by <2% just based on previous elections. A Democrat hasn’t won here since the 1990 redistricting, but an Ossoff win wouldn’t surprise me at all, especially with all the money Dems have poured into this race.

6:01 – Ok, so those benchmarks are nice, but who is going to win?

Yeah, about that. The Daily Kos polling average for this race, it’s a dead heat, 48.2-48.2.

5:56 – How does each candidate win?

So, to understand the Georgia-6th, you need to know there are three counties that make it up. Dekalb, Fulton, and Cobb. Fulton county makes up about half the vote, while Cobb is slightly bigger than Dekalb. Let’s look at each of them.

DEKALB

Ossoff’s county, if he is to win, he has to win this by about twenty points, and he might even have to get more than that because it is the smallest of the three counties. In the jungle primary, where Ossoff lost 51-49, he hit 60% here, so he would have to slightly better for a win. If Handel hits over 40% here, that is good news for her.

COBB

This is Handel’s county. In the jungle primary, where Republicans combined won overall 51-49, they got 58% out of Cobb. If Handel hits that, she is golden. If Ossoff can cut the lead to 15 points here, then that is good news for the Democrats, also, if he is about at 50% in the pre-election day voting out of Cobb, that is another good sign for him.

FULTON

The big one. This makes up about half of the district, and will probably ultimately decide who wins. It is so close that if Ossoff hits 50% here, he wins, if Handel hits 51% here, she wins. If Handel is somewhere between 50-51, we are going to be in for a LONG NIGHT. In the jungle primary, Ossoff got about 63% of the early vote here, if he hits 65 in the absentee vote, that will be a very early sign for Democrats.

All data from the jungle-primary, as well as PRECINCT-LEVEL comparison can be found here

5:45 – Wait, but looking at those charts, you’d think SC-05 would be the easier Dem win, right?

You’d think, but while Georgia sixth is maybe more red than SC-05, it’s a different kind of red. GA-06 is a highly-educated, mainly white district, so while it leans Republican, it doesn’t lean Trump-Republican, as you can see in comparing how Romney, a normal Republican did in the district compared to Trump.

5:41 – Can you compare that to GA-06?

Sure. Since the 1990 redistricting, no Democrat has ever held the Georgia-sixth, but as you can see, in recent years it has shifted slightly more liberal.
Once again, asterisks represent when the incumbent ran unopposed

GOP margins in GA-6 House races:

1992 +16
94 +28
96 +16
98 +42
99 *
00 +50
02 +60
04 *
06 +45
08 +37
10 *
12 +30
14 +32
16 +24
17 ?

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 20, 2017

5:38 – How often do Democrats win SC-05?

They used to all the time, but it has shifted more Republican over time.

NOTE: Asteriks represent when the incumbent candidate was unopposed

SC-5 House race results

1994 D+4
1996 D+9
1998 D+18
2000 D+19
2002 *
2004 D+26
2006 D+14
2008 D+25
2010 R+10
2012 R+12
2014 R+18
2016 R+20

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) June 20, 2017

5:31 – Ok, so what should I expect from this race?

Early polls had Norman up 13 and 17 points, but the most recent poll has Parnell cutting it to nine. Norman has also vastly outspent Parnell, nearly doubling him, and the DCCC has not payed much attention to this race. A 13+ point win would be good for Republicans, a seven or less point loss would actually be good for Democrats, in fact, should Parnell cut this to a four or so point race, that might actually tell us more about the Democratic wave than an Ossoff win might.

5:30 – Wait, there is another election?

Yes, the South Carolina 5th (SC-05) also holds their special election for congress today. That seat was vacated by Mick Mulvaney, who left to become Trump’s budget director. The Republican in this race is Ralph Norman (not to be confused with Virginia Governor nominee Ralph Northam) Norman is a longtime member of the state legislature, and is an ultra-conservative. He has ran his campaign based a lot on tax policy, much the same way Mulvaney did when he held the seat. The Democrat is Archie Parnell. Parnell is a former US Attorney, and like most Democrats, he has made his primary issue healthcare. This race should not be close which is why you probably haven’t heard much about it.

5:13 – Welcome!

Welcome to the crazysportsdude.com LIVE coverage of the Georgia-6th and South Carolina-5th special elections. Last week I did live coverage of the Virginia primaries for the Governor and Lt. Governor races, and that did well, so I’m back for these two special elections for US-House seats vacated by members of Trump’s cabinet.