Saturday marks one of the biggest days of the college basketball season to date, with a pair of ranked vs ranked matchups and a number of bubble battles. Check out the official Crazy Sports Dude college basketball Saturday viewing guide for February 13th, 2020.
Ohio State basketball is on fire right now. The Buckeyes are winners of five straight, four of the five coming in “Quadrant One” games. The five wins have been by an average of nine points, and the Buckeyes’ defense, long considered to be the team’s weakness, has looked up to task, including an impressive performance @ Wisconsin where the Buckeyes held the Badgers to just 62 points.
This recent hot streak has not gone unnoticed, and Ohio State officially earned themselves a spot on the coveted one line, displacing Villanova, which had held the 4th overall spot previously. Ohio State finds themselves with nine quadrant one victories, more than any team in the country, and seven more than Villanova. That is worth more than enough to outweigh the fact that OSU has two additional losses on their resume as opposed to the ‘Cats.
With four Q1 opportunities left on their schedule (@ Penn State, vs Michigan, vs Iowa, vs Illinois) plus the possibility of the Big Ten tournament, Ohio State has an opporuntity to climb even higher and displace Michigan, a team that has been stuck on a COVID pause, from the #3 overall seed.
That being said, the tough remaining schedule also means the Buckeyes have lots of potential to lose more games before the official bracket is revealed on March 14th, but for now, OSU controls their own destiny to a one seed.
The world #1 Bracketology (min. two years data, analysis from bracketmatrix.com) returns for 2021!
Seed List
KEY
Italicized – Play-in game GREEN – Moved up one or more seed line RED – Moved down one or more seed line BLUE – New to bracket
Changes from: Friday Bracketology (2/5)
Note: The furthest left team is considered to be the highest-ranked on the seed line and the furthest right is considered to be the lowest-ranked
1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State 2 Seeds: Villanova, Illinois, Alabama, Houston 3 Seeds: Virginia, Missouri, Iowa, Texas 4 Seeds: Tennessee, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, West Virginia 5 Seeds: Oklahoma, USC, Florida State, Creighton 6 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Purdue, Kansas, Rutgers 7 Seeds: Colorado, UCLA, Florida, Oklahoma State 8 Seeds:Xavier, Clemson, Louisville, BYU 9 Seeds:San Diego State, Minnesota, Boise State, Drake 10 Seeds: North Carolina, Arkansas, Loyola-Chicago, Connecticut 11 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, Indiana, LSU, Oregon 12 Seeds: Stanford, Seton Hall, Colorado State, VCU, Toledo, UAB 13 Seeds: Colgate, Belmont, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop 14 Seeds: Abilene Christian, South Dakota State, Wofford, Liberty 15 Seeds: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Siena, Vermont 16 Seeds: Texas State, Northeastern, Bryant, Montana State, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Last Four Byes St. Bonaventure Indiana LSU Oregon Last Four In Stanford Seton Hall Colorado State VCU First Four Out Richmond Saint Louis Utah State Western Kentucky Next Four Out St. John’s Syracuse Maryland Penn State
Bids By Conference
Big Ten – 9 of 15 (+2 in First Eight Out) Big 12 – 7 of 10 (0) SEC – 6 of 14 (0) ACC – 6 of 15 (1) Big East – 5 of 10 (1) Pac-12 – 5 of 12 (0) Mountain West – 3 of 11 (1) WCC – 2 of 10 (0) Missouri Valley – 2 of 10 (0) Atlantic 10 – 2 of 14 (2) Conference USA – 1 of 14 (1)
The Pac-12 has faded into the background of the college basketball sphere in 2021. An announcement by the conference that they would not play non-conference games, which was then later reversed, left teams struggling to fill their schedules, leading to a lack of blockbuster games featuring the teams out west.
Over the course of the season, though, we have watched as many different schools have gotten their turn as the conference’s darling. It was Oregon to start the year, then people noticed the raw talent on Stanford, Colorado got a turn, and most recently UCLA, but one team has emerged from the pack recently: Andy Enfield’s USC Trojans. The team, led by future NBA star Evan Mobley, holds a 10-1 record since the calendar flipped to 2021, the lone loss being a fluky one-possession defeat in Corvallis.
On Saturday, USC cemented itself as what many of us already knew them to be: the best team in the Pac-12. The Trojans dominated a ranked UCLA team from tip to buzzer en route to a 66-48 victory, holding their cross-town rivals to the fewest points the Bruins had scored all season. The win pushed USC to a 9-2 record in conference play, leaving them tied with UCLA atop the conference, but thanks to the head-to-head victory, the Trojans now control their own destiny to a Pac-12 crown, a feat they have not achieved since 1985, when they shared the title with Washington, back when the conference was still known as the Pac-10. Were the Trojans to be able to win an outright title, it would be the first since 1961, when the conference was known as the Athletic Association of Western Universities and consisted of just five schools.
A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume. They are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.
The Big Ten has far and away been the best conference in college basketball this year. According to the most recent update of the CSD Prime College Basketball Computer model, the average Big Ten team holds a ranking of 34th. The next highest conference is the Big 12, 15 spots lower at 49th. The SEC, ACC, and Big East all fall about ten spots below that, and the Pac-12 trails even further back.
It takes a conference as dominant as the Big Ten to put a team like Maryland, with a 10-8 record, into the NCAA tournament conversation, but the Terps’ resume is hard to deny. Maryland ranks 37th in the NET with four Q1 victories. All eight losses for UM come in Q1 games.
Only three other teams in the country have at least four Q1 victories and zero sub-Q1 defeats, and they are all ranked in the top ten of the AP poll. So come on, I know they’ve got eight losses, but let’s put the Terps in the field.
Seed List
KEY
Italicized – Play-in game GREEN – Moved up one or more seed line RED – Moved down one or more seed line BLUE – New to bracket
Note: The furthest left team is considered to be the highest-ranked on the seed line and the furthest right is considered to be the lowest-ranked
Last Four Byes Loyola-Chicago Oregon LSU Stanford Last Four In Indiana Colorado State Richmond Maryland First Four Out Utah State VCU Seton Hall Syracuse Next Four Out Saint Louis Georgia Tech Western Kentucky SMU
Bids By Conference
Big Ten – 10 of 15 (+0 in First Eight Out) Big 12 – 7 of 10 (0) SEC – 6 of 14 (0) ACC – 6 of 15 (2) Pac-12 – 5 of 12 (0) Big East – 4 of 10 (1) Mountain West – 3 of 11 (1) WCC – 2 of 10 (0) Missouri Valley – 2 of 10 (0) Atlantic 10 – 2 of 14 (2) American – 1 of 11 (1) Conference USA – 1 of 14 (1)
Saturday marks one of the biggest days of the college basketball season to date, with three ranked vs ranked matchups and a number of bubble battles. Check out the official Crazy Sports Dude college basketball viewing guide for Saturday, February 6th, 2020.
The day begins with a battle between the two teams leading the SEC standings right now: Alabama and Missouri. Over on FOX at the same time, Seton Hall will look to add a big road win to their resume against UConn. In the 2 PM ET hour we see a pair of additional ranked vs ranked games as Wisconsin faces Illinois and Kansas travels to West Virginia. Over on the ACC Network, Clemson looks to stop their skid against a hungry Syracuse team.
At 3, Texas takes on Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State, and at 4, Pitt travels to Virginia in what may be a must-win game for the Panthers’ NCAA Tournament hopes. At 6, UNC and Duke is, strangely, a bubble battle, and the night finishes with a big game out west: UCLA against USC.
Italicized – Play-in game GREEN – Moved up one or more seed line RED – Moved down one or more seed line BLUE – New to bracket
Note: The furthest left team is considered to be the highest-ranked on the seed line and the furthest right is considered to be the lowest-ranked
1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova 2 Seeds: Houston, Alabama, Texas, Iowa 3 Seeds: Ohio State, Illinois, Virginia, Tennessee 4 Seeds:Missouri, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Florida State 5 Seeds: Creighton, West Virginia, Oklahoma, UCLA 6 Seeds:Virginia Tech, Purdue, Kansas, Florida 7 Seeds:Colorado, USC, Minnesota, Oklahoma State 8 Seeds:Xavier, Louisville, Drake, Boise State 9 Seeds:Rutgers, BYU, Oregon, Clemson 10 Seeds: Connecticut, North Carolina, Saint Louis, San Diego State 11 Seeds: St. Bonaventure, LSU, Indiana, Loyola-Chicago 12 Seeds: Stanford, Arkansas, Richmond,Colorado State, Toledo, Winthrop 13 Seeds: UAB, Belmont, Colgate, Liberty 14 Seeds:South Dakota State, Abilene Christian, UC Irvine, Furman 15 Seeds:Grand Canyon, Vermont, Cleveland State, Siena 16 Seeds: Louisiana, Northeastern, Bryant, Montana State, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Dropped Out: Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, UMBC, Georgia State
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes St. Bonaventure LSU Indiana Loyola-Chicago Last Four In Stanford Arkansas Richmond Colorado State First Four Out Utah State Seton Hall Maryland Syracuse Next Four Out VCU Georgia Tech Penn State SMU
Bids By Conference
Big Ten – 9 of 15 (+2 in First Eight Out) Big 12 – 7 of 10 (0) SEC – 6 of 14 (0)| ACC – 6 of 15 (2)| Pac-12 – 5 of 12 (0) Big East – 4 of 10 (1) Mountain West – 3 of 11 (1) Atlantic 10 – 3 of 14 (1) Missouri Valley – 2 of 10 (0) WCC – 2 of 10 (0) American – 1 of 11 (1)
It seems quite likely that Gonzaga will head into Selection Sunday with a zero in the loss column, but its time to start talking about another team that has a shot to accomplish the same feat: the Baylor Bears.
Now, as of today, it is still more likely than not that the Bears will lose a game by sheer attrition if nothing else. Scott Drew’s team still has seven games rated as “Q1” difficulty by the NCAA, not to mention the Big 12 tournament. For comparison, Gonzaga has just one (2/27 @ BYU).
Baylor has already played five Q1 games, though, and they’ve won them all, by an average of 12 points. They rank 2nd in the CSD Prime Computer Rankings, the second highest-ranked Big 12 team sits at 9th, Texas Tech. An undefeated season would almost assuredly secure Baylor the #1 overall seed, as by Selection Sunday their resume will have surpassed that of Gonzaga’s. For now, I would still bet against it happening, but it is no longer a proposition to be scoffed at.
Saturday marks one of the biggest days of the college basketball season to date, with four ranked vs ranked matchups and a number of bubble battles. Check out the official crazysportsdude college basketball viewing guide for Saturday, January 30th, 2020.
The day opens with a big SEC/Big 12 battle as two surging teams square off in Alabama and Oklahoma. We’ll get two more of those big non-conference battles at 2 with Texas Tech vs LSU and Florida vs West Virginia. Next up, Villanova will look to continue its dominance on the rest of the Big East as they face Seton Hall. At 6, we’ll be treated to two blockbuster matchups as Kansas takes on Tennessee and Virginia faces rival Virginia Tech. Finally, just before eight, Minnesota takes on Purdue. It is a big day with plenty of NCAA Tournament implications. Let’s get into it.
Arizona self-imposed a postseason ban. Duke (5-5) and Kentucky (5-9) are barely even worth a mention. North Carolina (10-5) is just in the field right now, and Michigan State (8-4) is now out. Even Kansas, the only blueblood program to be safely in the field of 68, currently sits as losers of three straight games. What is up with college basketball’s blue blood programs.
There is a non-zero chance just one of college basketball’s premier brand names makes March Madness this year. Previously, we have looked at the cases of both Duke and Kentucky, today, we will look at Michigan State.
Tom Izzo’s Spartans have not played a game since January 8th, but we have to evaluate what little resume we have. MSU opened the year 6-0, however, just one of those wins (@ Duke) qualifies as a Q2 win, and none qualify as Q1 victories. Since the 6-0 start, Michigan State is just 2-4. They are 0-2 in Q1 games, the losses coming by a combined 34 points, and just 2-2 in Q2 opportunities.
The Spartans have fallen to 44th in KenPom and clock in at 85th in the NCAA’s NET system. Comparing the resume to that of St. Bonaventure, the team that displaced them, there is almost no comparison. The Bonnies rank over 40 spots better in the NET, are 1-0 in Q1 games, and are 1-1 in Q2. For those keeping track at home, that’s relative to a 2-4 Q1/2 record for MSU.
Now, there will be plenty of opportunities for Michigan State to pick up victories in the coming weeks. The Spartans have 11 (!) more Q1 opportunities left on the schedule. Winning even half of those would put Tom Izzo’s crew in solid shape to make the big dance, but for now, there is no way to justify having them in.
Bracket
Seed List
KEY
Italicized – Play-in game GREEN – Moved up one or more seed line RED – Moved down one or more seed line BLUE – New to bracket
Note: The furthest left team is considered to be the highest-ranked on the seed line and the furthest right is considered to be the lowest-ranked
1 Seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Villanova 2 Seeds: Houston, Texas, Iowa, Alabama 3 Seeds: Ohio State, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri 4 Seeds:Wisconsin, Illinois, Kansas, West Virginia 5 Seeds: Florida State, Creighton, Colorado, Texas Tech 6 Seeds: UCLA, Minnesota, Purdue, USC 7 Seeds:Clemson, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State 8 Seeds:Boise State, Louisville, Saint Louis, BYU 9 Seeds:Oklahoma, UConn, Xavier, Florida 10 Seeds: Drake, LSU, North Carolina, Rutgers 11 Seeds: Indiana, Seton Hall, Arkansas, San Diego State 12 Seeds: Pittsburgh, Stanford,St. Bonaventure, Richmond, Winthrop, Toledo 13 Seeds: Belmont, UAB, Furman, South Dakota State 14 Seeds: Colgate, Georgia State, Liberty, Siena 15 Seeds:Abilene Christian, Cleveland State, Bryant, UC Irvine 16 Seeds: Grand Canyon, Northeastern, UMBC, Montana State, Prairie View A&M, North Carolina A&T
Last Four Byes Indiana Seton Hall Arkansas San Diego State Last Four In Pittsburgh Stanford St. Bonaventure Richmond First Four Out Maryland Loyola-Chicago Michigan State Colorado State Next Four Out Utah State Syracuse VCU SMU
Bids By Conference
Big Ten – 9 of 15 (+2 in First Eight Out) Big 12 – 7 of 10 (0) ACC – 7 of 15 (1) SEC – 6 of 14 (0) Big East – 5 of 10 (0) Pac-12 – 5 of 12 (0) Atlantic 10 – 3 of 14 (1) Mountain West – 2 of 11 (2) WCC – 2 of 10 (0) American – 1 of 11 (1) Missouri Valley – 1 of 10 (1)
Saturday marks one of the biggest days of the college basketball season to date, with four ranked vs ranked matchups and a number of bubble battles. Check out the official crazysportsdude college basketball viewing guide for Saturday, January 23rd, 2020.
