Category: FOOTBALL

KEY

Italicized – Play-in game
↑ – Moved Up
↓ – Moved Down
* – New to field

1 Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Kansas, UCLA ↑
2 Seeds: Purdue ↓, Texas, Baylor, Arizona
3 Seeds: Marquette, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Tennessee
4 Seeds: Connecticut, Xavier, Indiana, Virginia
5 Seeds: Miami, Saint Mary’s, Iowa State ↑, San Diego State
6 Seeds: Kentucky, TCU ↓, Creighton, Texas A&M ↑
7 Seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Northwestern ↓, Iowa ↑
8 Seeds: Missouri, Maryland ↓, Illinois, Arkansas
9 Seeds: Florida Atlantic, Boise State, West Virginia ↑, Auburn ↑
10 Seeds: Memphis, Providence ↓, USC, NC State
11 Seeds: Mississippi State, Pittsburgh ↓, Utah State*, Rutgers ↓, Nevada, Penn State*
12 Seeds: Charleston, Oral Roberts, VCU, Drake*
13 Seeds: Toledo, Utah Valley, Iona ↑, Yale ↑
14 Seeds: Louisiana*, Furman, UC Irvine, Kennesaw State*
15 Seeds: Colgate, Montana State*, Vermont, Youngstown State
16 Seeds: UNC-Asheville, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Farleigh Dickinson, Howard, Grambling, SE Missouri State*

Dropped Out: Arizona State, Wisconsin, Bradley, Liberty, Southern Miss, Eastern Washington, Morehead State

Bubble Watch

Last Four Byes: USC, NC State, Mississippi State, Pittsburgh
Last Four In: Utah State, Rutgers, Nevada, Penn State
First Four Out: Wisconsin, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, North Carolina
Next Four Out: Clemson, Michigan, Vanderbilt, Oregon

All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 389-131 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 44-41-2 (52%)
ATS Total: 239-240-41 (50%)

Best Bets

#13 USC (-3) vs Oregon – 8 PM ET, Fri, Fox
Washington State (+10.5) @ Utah – 1:30 PM ET, FS1
Missouri (-1) @ Mississippi State – 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate

Friday, December 18th

UAB (5-3, 3-1 C-USA) @ Marshall (7-1, 4-1 C-USA)
Conference USA Championship
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Marshall -6

CSD Pick: Marshall 27, UAB 21

Ball State (5-1 MAC) vs Buffalo (5-0 MAC) in Detroit, MI
MAC Championship
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -12

CSD Pick: Buffalo 43, Ball State 30

Nebraska (2-5 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (3-5 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Nebraska -6

CSD Pick: Nebraska 23, Rutgers 22

Oregon (3-2, 3-2 Pac-12) @ #13 USC (5-0, 5-0 Pac-12)

Pac-12 Championship
8 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: USC -3

If there’s one thing to be sure of in college football’s conference championship week, its that the Pac-12 Championship will be a fun game. Oregon’s last three contests have been decided by an average of three points, and USC has needed a late game comeback to win in over half of their games this year. As for the winner, USC is at home here, and the Trojans are the better team. Kedon Slovis is heating up at the QB spot, and I don’t trust Oregon’s incredibly turnover-prone offense. Give me USC, and the Trojans should cover the three points.

CSD Pick: USC 33, Oregon 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – USC -3

Saturday, December 19th

#14 Northwestern (6-1 Big Ten) vs #4 Ohio State (5-0 Big Ten) in Indianapolis, IN

Big Ten Championship
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Ohio State -20.5

A Northwestern win over Ohio State would blow the college football playoff race wide open, and while I would love to see it, the result just doesn’t seem feasible. Ohio State is one of the most talented teams in the country, and they will be playing angry here after last week’s game against Michigan was canceled. The last time we saw the Buckeyes play, they played their best game of the season, and I’d expect a similar result here.

CSD Pick: Ohio State 38, Northwestern 21

#5 Texas A&M (7-1 SEC) @ Tennessee (3-6 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -12.5

Texas A&M has a great chance to make the playoff with a Clemson or Ohio State loss, but the Aggies need to get through Tennessee first. I think they’ll do it, but an upset isn’t out of the question. Tennessee is still a talented team, and they are at home, but A&M just has so much more to play for.

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 34, Tennessee 18

#10 Oklahoma (7-2, 6-2 Big Ten) vs #6 Iowa State (8-2, 8-1 Big 12) in Arlington, TX

Big 12 Championship
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -4.5

Ok, the Big 12 champ has a shot now. If a spot opens up in the playoff, will the committee put Alabama up against a Texas A&M team it already blew out on the road, or the Big 12 champion? I tend to think the latter isn’t an absurd option, and a Texas A&M loss would almost certainly put the winner of this one front in line.

Now, that task is a lot easier for Iowa State, as the Cyclones would only have to move up two spots to make the top four, but it isn’t out of the question for Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma Sooners either. OU is firing on all cylinders right now. Spencer Rattler is improving, and the defense is the best that Oklahoma has had in years. I’ll take OU.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 30

Florida State (3-6, 2-6 ACC) @ Wake Forest (4-4, 3-4 ACC) – CANCELED
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Wake Forest -9.5

CSD Pick: Wake Forest 33, Florida State 29

Washington State (1-2, 1-2 Pac-12) @ Utah (2-2, 2-2 Pac-12)
1:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Utah -10.5

In the Pac-12, it seems like every team is of roughly similar quality, so I’ll take Washington State getting 10.5. Oh yeah, also Utah’s hype is way overinflated after beating an undefeated Colorado team that was not truly top-25 quality.

CSD Pick: Utah 30, Washington State 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Washington State +10.5

Air Force (3-2) @ Army (8-2)
3 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Air Force -2.5

CSD Pick: Air Force 25, Army 20

#19 Louisiana (9-1, 7-1 Sun Belt) @ #12 Coastal Carolina (11-0, 8-0 Sun Belt) – CANCELED

Sun Belt Conference Championship
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -4.5

A Coastal Carolina win would give the Chants a great shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, and I think with Coastal’s home-field advantage and dangerous passing attack, the Chanticleers will squeak out a close one against the Ragin’ Cajuns. This will be a high-scoring, offensive battle, but I expect CCU to come out on top.

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 36, Louisiana 34

Missouri (5-4 SEC) @ Mississippi State (2-7 SEC)
3:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Missouri -1

Missouri got killed last week by a rapidly improving Georgia team, but the Tigers are still a very good squad. They take on a Mississippi State team that has one of the worst offenses in the country here, and should pick up the win to close out a successful year one for Eli Drinkwitz.

CSD Pick: Missouri 29, Mississippi State 19

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Missouri -1

Ole Miss (4-4 SEC) @ LSU (4-5 SEC)
3:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: LSU -2

CSD Pick: LSU 40, Ole Miss 37

#3 Clemson (9-1, 8-1 ACC) vs #2 Notre Dame (10-0, 9-0 ACC) in Charlotte, NC

ACC Championship
4 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -7.5

This is the biggest game of the year to date, as Clemson will be fighting for their playoff lives against Notre Dame. The Irish defeated Clemson 47-40 earlier this year, but that game was in South Bend, and Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence was unavailable. On a neutral field, and with Lawrence (and a few defensive stars) back for this one, I expect Clemson to win a close, exciting game, potentially setting up a round three in the College Football Playoff.

CSD Pick: Clemson 35, Notre Dame 30

Minnesota (3-3 Big Ten) @ Wisconsin (2-3 Big Ten)

4 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Wisconsin -11.5

The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe will have much lower stakes than I expected coming into the season, but this should be a fun game between two teams that fell short of expectations but hope to end their year on a positive note. Wisconsin has the home edge and I think the Badgers are the better team, so I’ll side with them, but this will be a fun rivalry game to have on your third screen during the ACC title game.

CSD Pick: Wisconsin 28, Minnesota 18

Boise State (5-1, 5-0 MW) vs #24 San Jose State (6-0, 6-0 MW) in Las Vegas, NV
Mountain West Championship
4:30 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Boise State -9

CSD Pick: Boise State 27, San Jose State 25

Illinois (2-5 Big Ten) @ Penn State (3-5 Big Ten)
5:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Penn State -14.5

CSD Pick: Penn State 35, Illinois 17

Stanford (3-2, 3-2 Pac-12) @ UCLA (3-3, 3-3 Pac-12)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: UCLA -7

CSD Pick: UCLA 27, Stanford 25\

#1 Alabama (10-0 SEC) vs #7 Florida (8-2 SEC) in Atlanta, GA

SEC Championship
8 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama -14

Alabama and Florida will square off Saturday night in what will likely be one of the highest-scoring SEC Championship Games in history. As for the winner, you almost don’t need to know the teams. The proof is in the pudding, the West champion has beaten the East champion in 10 of the last 11 SEC title games, and to add to that Florida hasn’t won the crown since 2008 when Tim Tebow was their quarterback. This Alabama team is up there with the best Nick Saban teams ever, and I expect them to control this game from start to finish en route to a two touchdown victory.

CSD Pick: Alabama 49, Florida 35

#23 Tulsa (6-1, 6-0 AAC) @ #9 Cincinnati (8-0, 6-0 AAC)

American Athletic Conference Championship
8 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -13

It is hard to get motivated to write about Cincinnati. I said in the preseason that the Bearcats had a great shot of being the first G5 team to make the College Football Playoff. They’ve won all of their games, seven of the eight by two touchdowns or more, with an average margin of victory of 26. And yet, they still have no hope of making the playoff. Even if the playoff expanded to eight teams suddenly they still would have little chance. As for the game this Saturday, the Bearcats should roll yet again, with Desmond Ridder and the talented, efficient offense leading the charge. I don’t expect it to matter to the selection committee.

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 34, Tulsa 21

Arizona State (1-2, 1-2 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (2-4, 2-4 Pac-12)
10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Arizona State -7

CSD Pick: Arizona State 33, Oregon State 27

GoodYear Cotton Bowl Classic

December 30th, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN
Arlington, TX
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma vs Georgia

These will likely be the two highest-ranked two-loss teams in the country, and they’ll match up nicely as two teams that came into the season with playoff expectations but fell short. The winner of this will have huge expectations for 2021, with both potentially getting their star QBs back.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

January 1st, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN
Atlanta, GA
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Florida vs Cincinnati

Cincinnati, which looks poised to finish the season unbeaten, will get a nice consolation prize as they take on the SEC runner-ups in the Peach Bowl. The Bearcats could still get into the playoff with losses by Florida, Clemson, and Texas A&M, but the last of that list seems like an ultimate longshot.

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

January 2nd, 4 PM ET, ESPN
Glendale, AZ
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Indiana vs. USC

USC doesn’t have a shot to make the playoff, but the Trojans look to be in good shape for a New Year’s Six bowl. Indiana also seems to be in good position, sitting in the top 12 at time of writing.

Capital One Orange Bowl

January 2nd, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
ACC vs. Big Ten or SEC
Bowl Projection: North Carolina vs. Texas A&M

This is the only NY6 game this year with tie-ins, as an ACC team must face a team from the Big Ten or SEC. If both ACC title game participants make it to the Playoff, UNC will slide in here, and I expect Texas A&M to be the highest-ranked SEC team outside of Alabama, and the team that will slide into the playoff should Ohio State or Clemson lose.

Rose Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 5 PM ET, ESPN
Pasadena, CA
CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs. Clemson

It is simple for these two teams. Win and you’re in, lose and you are almost certainly out, not much more to it.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
New Orleans, LA
CFP vs. CFP
Projection: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

Both of these teams are essentially locked into the playoff even were they to lose their conference title games.

College Football Playoff National Championship

January 11th, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama

A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season,. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.

Rank	Team	Conf	RATING	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	33.33	0	0
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	27.85	0	0
3	Clemson	ACC	23.78	0	0
4	Notre Dame	ACC	21.52	1	10
5	Georgia	SEC	21.16	2	-1
6	Texas A&M	SEC	19.86	0	2
7	Florida	SEC	18.11	-3	0
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	17.81	1	-3
9	Iowa	Big Ten	17.72	5	23
10	Cincinnati	AAC	17.42	0	10
11	North Carolina	ACC	17.02	9	6
12	Iowa State	Big 12	16.76	-1	9
13	Southern California	Pac-12	16.61	-1	2
14	Louisiana State	SEC	15.95	3	-5
15	Wisconsin	Big Ten	14.23	-7	-3
16	Indiana	Big Ten	13.88	-1	21
17	Texas	Big 12	12.58	-1	-6
18	Arizona State	Pac-12	12.43	3	13
19	Oklahoma State	Big 12	11.96	18	-3
20	Penn State	Big Ten	10.84	-7	-14
21	UCLA	Pac-12	10.68	-2	39
22	Tennessee	SEC	10.39	10	0
23	Northwestern	Big Ten	10.37	4	29
24	Louisville	ACC	10.33	5	1
25	Auburn	SEC	10.15	8	-15
26	Oregon	Pac-12	10.12	-1	-13
27	Pittsburgh	ACC	9.87	-1	11
28	Arkansas	SEC	9.25	-4	50
29	West Virginia	Big 12	9.11	-1	24
30	Kentucky	SEC	9.02	0	-3
31	Brigham Young	Ind	8.98	-9	20
32	Virginia Tech	ACC	8.58	12	-13
33	Missouri	SEC	8.19	-10	23
34	Wake Forest	ACC	7.74	-3	21
35	Central Florida	AAC	7.22	0	-12
36	Boston College	ACC	7.05	0	28
37	Utah	Pac-12	6.45	10	6
38	Minnesota	Big Ten	6.39	18	-14
39	Miami (FL)	ACC	6.36	-21	-9
40	Washington	Pac-12	6.12	0	-11
41	Texas Christian	Big 12	6.06	2	-2
42	Mississippi	SEC	5.25	-1	-7
43	Stanford	Pac-12	4.30	-1	5
44	Louisiana	Sun Belt	4.24	1	6
45	Tulsa	AAC	3.91	3	47
46	Michigan	Big Ten	3.87	3	-28
47	Michigan State	Big Ten	3.77	18	16
48	South Carolina	SEC	3.71	3	-4
49	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	3.11	3	64
50	Virginia	ACC	3.01	-11	-9
51	Nebraska	Big Ten	2.72	-17	-18
52	Illinois	Big Ten	2.62	-2	2
53	Houston	AAC	2.44	6	5
54	Georgia Tech	ACC	2.32	0	13
55	Boise State	MWC	2.10	9	-13
56	California	Pac-12	2.08	-1	-20
57	Maryland	Big Ten	1.71	-11	26
58	Washington State	Pac-12	1.56	-1	10
59	Texas Tech	Big 12	1.48	-1	0
60	Baylor	Big 12	1.39	-22	-26
61	Mississippi State	SEC	1.32	-8	-12
62	Kansas State	Big 12	1.25	-2	-16
63	North Carolina State	ACC	1.14	-2	-6
64	Purdue	Big Ten	1.04	-2	-19
65	Tulane	AAC	0.59	-2	8
66	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	0.52	8	-26
67	Buffalo	MAC	0.37	0	4
68	Oregon State	Pac-12	0.36	0	-6
69	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-0.16	9	-8
70	Florida State	ACC	-0.29	-1	-42
71	Southern Methodist	AAC	-1.09	0	-24
72	Liberty	Ind	-1.27	0	47
73	East Carolina	AAC	-1.28	0	23
74	Memphis	AAC	-2.13	-4	-48
75	Colorado	Pac-12	-2.40	-9	24
76	Air Force	MWC	-2.71	-1	-7
77	Rutgers	Big Ten	-3.49	11	24
78	San Diego State	MWC	-3.63	3	3
79	Marshall	CUSA	-3.69	-2	-2
80	Duke	ACC	-3.91	-4	-14
81	San Jose State	MWC	-5.18	4	31
82	Arizona	Pac-12	-6.57	1	-6
83	Vanderbilt	SEC	-6.74	-1	14
84	Army	Ind	-7.43	19	23
85	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-7.85	7	-15
86	Fresno State	MWC	-7.91	-7	12
87	Wyoming	MWC	-7.91	2	-15
88	Colorado State	MWC	-7.96	5	1
89	Nevada	MWC	-8.00	2	-10
90	Toledo	MAC	-8.14	-6	-5
91	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-8.48	3	13
92	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-8.92	-6	2
93	Troy	Sun Belt	-8.96	2	12
94	Ohio	MAC	-8.96	2	-6
95	Rice	CUSA	-9.41	-8	11
96	Navy	AAC	-9.49	-16	-31
97	South Florida	AAC	-9.67	0	-4
98	Miami (OH)	MAC	-9.77	0	-12
99	Ball State	MAC	-10.05	-9	-4
100	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-10.08	-1	14
101	Kent State	MAC	-10.35	-1	8
102	New Mexico	MWC	-10.40	8	15
103	Central Michigan	MAC	-11.33	6	-16
104	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-11.42	-2	-14
105	Western Michigan	MAC	-11.66	9	3
106	Syracuse	ACC	-12.59	-1	-32
107	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-13.21	-1	-5
108	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-13.24	8	-26
109	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-14.12	-8	-29
110	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-14.43	-6	13
111	Charlotte	CUSA	-14.63	0	-20
112	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-14.81	-4	-28
113	Kansas	Big 12	-14.87	-1	-3
114	Temple	AAC	-15.05	-1	-39
115	Northern Illinois	MAC	-15.71	2	7
116	Hawaii	MWC	-15.81	-9	-16
117	Texas State	Sun Belt	-16.20	-2	7
118	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-17.01	3	9
119	Utah State	MWC	-18.20	0	-16
120	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-19.10	0	-5
121	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-19.24	1	-5
122	North Texas	CUSA	-20.33	-4	-4
123	Florida International	CUSA	-22.87	0	-12
124	Akron	MAC	-24.81	0	-3
125	Massachusetts	Ind	-27.17	0	1
126	Bowling Green State	MAC	-27.56	0	-1
127	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-28.45	0	-7

It is now time for the final week of the college football regular season. Here is what’s on the docket:

• #1 Alabama and #6 Florida face their final tests prior to the SEC Championship Game
• #21 Colorado hopes to close out the regular season unbeaten with a win over Utah
• #15 USC can clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a win against rival UCLA
• #9 Georgia faces #25 Missouri and #10 Miami squares off with #17 North Carolina in big ranked vs ranked showdowns
• #22 Oklahoma State hopes to stay ranked taking on Baylor
• #16 Iowa faces Wisconsin, with the winner potentially drawing Indiana next week
• Wake Forest and Louisville will battle in what should be a close and exciting ACC clash

All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 360-123 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 41-39-2 (51%)
ATS Total: 222-223-368 (50%)

Best Bets

UTEP (+10.5) vs North Texas – Friday, 6 PM ET, ESPN3
#25 Missouri (+13.5) vs #9 Georgia – 12 PM ET, SEC Network
Ball State (-2.5) vs Western Michigan – 12 PM ET, ESPN+
Rice (+9) vs UAB – 1 PM ET, ESPN3
Auburn (+9) @ Mississippi State – 7:30 PM ET, SEC Network

Thursday, December 10th

Florida Atlantic (5-2, 4-1 C-USA) @ Southern Miss (2-7, 1-4 C-USA)
6:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -7.5

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 30, Southern Miss 21

Pitt (5-5, 4-5 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (3-6, 3-5 ACC)
7 PM ET, ESPN3/ACC RSN
Vegas Line: Pitt -5

CSD Pick: Pitt 27, Georgia Tech 18

Friday, December 11th

North Texas (3-5, 2-4 C-USA) @ UTEP (3-4, 0-3 C-USA)
6 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: North Texas -10.5

Coming into 2020, UTEP was expected to be the worst team in college football, and while they are by no means good, or even average, they’ve well surpassed expectations, probably to the point where Dana Dimel will be back for another year. Now, I’m not sure if they will pull the outright upset on North Texas to close out the year here, but it certainly isn’t out of the question, and they’ll definitely cover.

CSD Pick: North Texas 31, UTEP 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – UTEP +10.5

Arizona State (0-2, 0-2 Pac-12) @ Arizona (0-4, 0-4 Pac-12)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Arizona State -8.5

CSD Pick: Arizona State 28, Arizona 20

Nevada (6-1, 6-1 MW) vs San Jose State (5-0, 5-0 MW) in Las Vegas, NV
10 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: San Jose State -3.5

CSD Pick: Nevada 30, San Jose State 29

Saturday, December 12th

#1 Alabama (9-0 SEC) @ Arkansas (3-6 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Alabama -31

Arkansas has clearly overperformed on expectations, there were many that thought the ‘Hogs would not win a single game this year, and they have won three. That being said, they will not be close to touching Alabama this weekend. The Tide will roll.

CSD Pick: Alabama 51, Arkansas 23

#9 Georgia (6-2 SEC) @ #25 Missouri (5-3 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -13.5

A lot of people had a problem with the committee ranking Missouri with a 5-3 record, but not me. The Tigers have been top-25 in my computer model for most of the season, and at home, with a chance to prove themselves against a very good Georgia team, I see Eli Drinkwitz’ Tigers keeping this one competitive from start to finish and easily covering the 13.5.

CSD Pick: Georgia 30, Missouri 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Missouri +13.5

Illinois (2-4 Big Ten) @ #14 Northwestern (5-1 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Northwestern -14.5

CSD Pick: Northwestern 30, Illinois 19

Utah (1-2, 1-2 Pac-12) @ #21 Colorado (4-0, 3-0 Pac-12)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Colorado -2.5

CSD Pick: Colorado 29, Utah 26

Michigan State (2-4 Big Ten) @ Penn State (2-5 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ABC (was ESPN at 3:30)
Vegas Line: Penn State -13

CSD Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan State 18

Rutgers (2-5 Big Ten) @ Maryland (2-2 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Maryland -7.5

CSD Pick: Maryland 26, Rutgers 17

Minnesota (2-3 Big Ten) @ Nebraska (2-4 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Nebraska -9

CSD Pick: Nebraska 27, Minnesota 21

Northern Illinois (0-5 MAC) @ Eastern Michigan (1-4 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan -4

CSD Pick: Eastern Michigan 31, Northern Illinois 25

Western Michigan (4-1 MAC) @ Ball State (4-1 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Ball State -2.5

Western Michigan is coming off of a loss to a then-winless EMU team by double digits. Ball State will roll here, locking up a spot in the MAC title game.

CSD Pick: Ball State 39, Western Michigan 32

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Ball State -2.5

Wake Forest (4-3, 3-3 ACC) @ Louisville (3-7, 2-7 ACC)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Louisville -2.5

In a weekend as weak as this one, games like this are going to stand out just because they are expected to be competitive, although this matchup does have some rivalry week stakes as the classic “Wakeyleakes” game. These are two middle of the road ACC teams that are a lot better than their records, especially Louisville. There is way too much talent on the UL offense to finish the year 2-8 in the ACC. I expect the ‘Cards to finish the year on a high note.

CSD Pick: Louisville 36, Wake Forest 30

UAB (4-3, 2-1 C-USA) @ Rice (2-2, 2-2 C-USA)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: UAB -9

Rice ended Conference USA’s little hope for a New Year’s Six bowl berth last week when they upset Marshall, and I think they have a good shot at pulling another upset and beating a UAB team that has had a very disappointing year.

CSD Pick: Rice 27, UAB 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Rice +9

Akron (1-4 MAC) @ Buffalo (4-0 MAC)
2:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -33.5

CSD Pick: Buffalo 44, Akron 11

#13 Coastal Carolina (10-0, 7-0 Sun Belt) @ Troy (5-5, 3-3 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -14

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 33, Troy 21

Central Michigan (3-2 MAC) @ Toledo (3-2 MAC)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Toledo -10.5

CSD Pick: Toledo 37, Central Michigan 26

Navy (3-6) @ Army (7-2)
3 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Army -5

CSD Pick: Army 24, Navy 23

#17 North Carolina (7-3, 6-3 ACC) @ #10 Miami (8-1, 7-1 ACC)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Miami -4

The biggest game of the weekend comes from the ACC in what may be a New Year’s Six qualifiers. The UNC offense has been dynamite this year, but the defense has been too flimsy and has cost them some games. I trust Miami’s D a little more, and I expect D’Eriq King to go all out for his final game in Coral Gables. Give me the U picking up their ninth win of the season.

CSD Pick: Miami 36, North Carolina 34

Wisconsin (2-2 Big Ten) @ #16 Iowa (5-2 Big Ten)

3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa -3

A win for Iowa here may keep them in the hunt for a New Year’s Six berth when you factor in a potential win over Indiana next weekend (should the Hoosiers be able to play). Wisconsin, which has dealt with lots of COVID issues, has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country for me, and with the Hawkeyes red hot, at home, I expect them to continue to climb in the CFP rankings.

CSD Pick: Iowa 26, Wisconsin 25

#22 Oklahoma State (6-3, 5-3 Big 12) @ Baylor (2-6, 2-6 Big 12)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN (was ESPNU at 7)
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -5

Oklahoma State is eliminated from Big 12 title contention, on the road, and against a Baylor team that is better than their record indicates, so there is some cause for concern. An upset would not shock me here. With that being said, the Cowboys’ defense is still very talented, and I don’t trust Charlie Brewer and the Baylor offense in this spot. I’ll take the Pokes.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 26, Baylor 25

Houston (3-3, 3-2 AAC) @ Memphis (6-3, 4-3 AAC)
3:45 PM ET, ESPN2 (was ESPNU at 3:30)
Vegas Line: Houston -2.5

CSD Pick: Houston 41, Memphis 37

Washington (3-1, 3-1 Pac-12) @ Oregon (3-2, 3-2 Pac-12) – CANCELED

4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oregon -5.5

The stakes for this one are huge, as the winner will get a crack at the Pac-12 title next week. Both teams have had disappointing years, but I trust Oregon more despite the worse record. I have never been impressed while watching Washington play, while OU clearly has talent and explosiveness on their offense and just needs to put the pieces together. I’ve got the Ducks, but it will a low-scoring, close game.

CSD Pick: Oregon 26, Washington 25

Duke (2-8, 1-8 ACC) @ Florida State (2-6, 1-6 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Florida State -4.5

CSD Pick: Florida State 26, Duke 21

Tennessee (2-6 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-8 SEC)
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -14.5

CSD Pick: Tennessee 29, Vanderbilt 11

Boise State (4-1, 4-0 MW) @ Wyoming (2-3, 2-3 MW)
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Boise State -11

CSD Pick: Boise State 28, Wyoming 19

Appalachian State (7-3, 5-2 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (7-4, 4-3 Sun Belt)
6 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -9.5

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 33, Georgia Southern 27

LSU (3-5 SEC) @ #6 Florida (8-1 SEC)

7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -23

LSU is bad this year, there is no way around it. Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, and company will dominate an awful LSU defense, and the Gators will head into the SEC Championship next week with the #6 still beside their name.

CSD Pick: Florida 45, LSU 25

Louisiana Tech (5-3) @ TCU (5-4)
7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: TCU -21

CSD Pick: TCU 37, Louisiana Tecg 16

#15 USC (4-0, 4-0 Pac-12) @ UCLA (3-2, 3-2 Pac-12)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: USC -3

The plan is simple for USC. Win this one, win the Pac-12 title game, and you are into a New Year’s Six Bowl. UCLA doesn’t quite have aspirations like that, but they can shatter their rival’s undefeated season, and for Bruins fans, that would be pretty sweet. UCLA has been very good this year and has been playing about as well as any team in the Pac-12 recently. With that being said, this USC team is hungry and talented, and I expect them to clinch their Pac-12 title berth.

CSD Pick: USC 32, UCLA 25

Auburn (5-4 SEC) @ Mississippi State (2-6 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Auburn -9

The record isn’t pretty, but Mississippi State has been playing well the past few weeks, and Auburn… has not. Expect a dejected, reeling Auburn squad to struggle with Mike Leach’s group on the road.

CSD Pick: Auburn 26, Mississippi State 21

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Mississippi State +9

Virginia (5-4, 4-4 ACC) @ Virginia Tech (4-6, 4-5 ACC)
8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -3

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 33, Virginia 30

Utah State (1-5, 1-5 MW) @ Colorado State (1-3, 1-3 MW) CANCELED
9:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Colorado State -12

CSD Pick: Colorado State 30, Utah State 16

San Diego State (4-3) @ #18 BYU (9-1)
10 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: BYU -15.5

CSD Pick: BYU 35, San Diego State 19

Stanford (2-2, 2-2 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (2-3, 2-3 Pac-12)
10 PM ET, ESPNU (was 10:30)
Vegas Line: Oregon State -3.5

CSD Pick: Stanford 30, Oregon State 28

Fresno State (3-2, 3-2 MW) @ New Mexico (1-5, 1-5 MW)
10:30 PM ET, FS1 (was FS2)
Vegas Line: Fresno State -11.5

CSD Pick: Fresno State 34, New Mexico 22

UNLV (0-5, 0-5 MW) @ Hawai’i (3-4, 3-4 MW)
11 PM ET, Team1 App/Spectrum Sports
Vegas Line: Hawai’i -21.5

CSD Pick: Hawai’i 34, UNLV 18

These projections are NOT if the season ended today, they are projected ahead to the end of the season

GoodYear Cotton Bowl Classic

December 30th, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN
Arlington, TX
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma vs Georgia

These will likely be the two highest-ranked two-loss teams in the country outside of Florida, and they’ll match up nicely as two teams that came into the season with playoff expectations but fell short.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

January 1st, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN
Atlanta, GA
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Florida vs Cincinnati

Cincinnati, which looks poised to finish the season unbeaten, will get a nice consolation prize as they take on the SEC runner-ups in the Peach Bowl. The Bearcats could still get into the playoff with losses by Florida, Clemson, and Texas A&M, but the last of that list seems like an ultimate longshot.

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

January 2nd, 4 PM ET, ESPN
Glendale, AZ
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Indiana vs. USC

USC doesn’t have a shot to make the playoff, but the Trojans look to be in good shape for a New Year’s Six bowl. Indiana also seems to be in good position, and they have a shot at an automatic bid if Ohio State is officially disqualified from Big Ten title contention. The Hoosiers would be favored in a hypothetically showdown with Northwestern.

Capital One Orange Bowl

January 2nd, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
ACC vs. Big Ten or SEC
Bowl Projection: Miami vs. Texas A&M

This is the only NY6 game this year with tie-ins, as an ACC team must face a team from the Big Ten or SEC. If both ACC title game participants make it to the Playoff Miami will slide in here, and I expect Texas A&M to be the highest-ranked SEC team outside of Alabama.

Rose Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 5 PM ET, ESPN
Pasadena, CA
CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs. Clemson

Will Ohio State be allowed to play in the Big Ten Championship Game? I’m not sure, but whether the Buckeyes get Northwestern or Iowa on the final weekend likely will not make a difference in their playoff chances assuming they win. As for Clemson, the Tigers’ path is simple: win and you are in.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
New Orleans, LA
CFP vs. CFP
Projection: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

After the ACC canceled a potentially tough Wake Forest game, Notre Dame is essentially a lock for the playoff even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. I expect a loss to drop the Irish to the four seed, however, where they’ll be placed opposite Alabama.

College Football Playoff National Championship

January 11th, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama

A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season,. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.

Rank	Team	Conf	RATING	CHANGE	YTD
1	Alabama	SEC	32.5	0	0
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	27.8	0	0
3	Clemson	ACC	23.8	1	0
4	Florida	SEC	21.7	1	3
5	Notre Dame	ACC	21.5	-2	9
6	Texas A&M	SEC	19.9	4	2
7	Georgia	SEC	18.9	1	-3
8	Wisconsin	Big Ten	18.1	-1	4
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	17.8	-3	-4
10	Cincinnati	AAC	17.4	-1	10
11	Iowa State	Big 12	16.8	1	10
12	Southern California	Pac-12	15.9	-1	3
13	Penn State	Big Ten	14.5	2	-7
14	Iowa	Big Ten	13.9	-1	18
15	Indiana	Big Ten	13.9	6	22
16	Texas	Big 12	12.6	10	-5
17	Louisiana State	SEC	12.4	-3	-8
18	Miami (FL)	ACC	12.2	6	12
19	UCLA	Pac-12	11.4	9	41
20	North Carolina	ACC	11.2	2	-3
21	Arizona State	Pac-12	11.1	-5	10
22	Brigham Young	Ind	10.5	-5	29
23	Missouri	SEC	10.4	-5	33
24	Arkansas	SEC	10.1	9	54
25	Oregon	Pac-12	10.1	-2	-12
26	Pittsburgh	ACC	9.8	-1	12
27	Northwestern	Big Ten	9.3	0	25
28	West Virginia	Big 12	9.1	-8	25
29	Louisville	ACC	9.1	0	-4
30	Kentucky	SEC	9.0	4	-3
31	Wake Forest	ACC	9.0	-1	24
32	Tennessee	SEC	8.9	0	-10
33	Auburn	SEC	8.6	-14	-23
34	Nebraska	Big Ten	7.5	2	-1
35	Central Florida	AAC	7.2	2	-12
36	Boston College	ACC	7.0	4	28
37	Oklahoma State	Big 12	6.9	4	-21
38	Baylor	Big 12	6.5	12	-4
39	Virginia	ACC	6.4	-4	2
40	Washington	Pac-12	6.1	-9	-11
41	Mississippi	SEC	5.2	2	-6
42	Stanford	Pac-12	5.2	12	6
43	Texas Christian	Big 12	5.2	-4	-4
44	Virginia Tech	ACC	5.2	-6	-25
45	Louisiana	Sun Belt	4.2	23	5
46	Maryland	Big Ten	4.2	1	37
47	Utah	Pac-12	3.9	-3	-4
48	Tulsa	AAC	3.9	3	44
49	Michigan	Big Ten	3.9	0	-31
50	Illinois	Big Ten	3.7	-2	4
51	South Carolina	SEC	3.7	-6	-7
52	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	2.9	14	61
53	Mississippi State	SEC	2.9	0	-4
54	Georgia Tech	ACC	2.4	1	13
55	California	Pac-12	2.1	4	-19
56	Minnesota	Big Ten	1.6	1	-32
57	Washington State	Pac-12	1.6	4	11
58	Texas Tech	Big 12	1.5	-16	1
59	Houston	AAC	1.4	1	-1
60	Kansas State	Big 12	1.2	-14	-14
61	North Carolina State	ACC	1.1	-3	-4
62	Purdue	Big Ten	1.0	0	-17
63	Tulane	AAC	0.6	0	10
64	Boise State	MWC	0.4	1	-22
65	Michigan State	Big Ten	0.1	-1	-2
66	Colorado	Pac-12	0.1	10	33
67	Buffalo	MAC	-0.2	0	4
68	Oregon State	Pac-12	-0.6	6	-6
69	Florida State	ACC	-0.6	0	-41
70	Memphis	AAC	-1.1	3	-44
71	Southern Methodist	AAC	-1.1	-1	-24
72	Liberty	Ind	-1.3	-1	47
73	East Carolina	AAC	-1.3	-1	23
74	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-2.7	-18	-34
75	Air Force	MWC	-2.7	7	-6
76	Duke	ACC	-3.6	-1	-10
77	Marshall	CUSA	-3.7	-25	0
78	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-3.8	0	-17
79	Fresno State	MWC	-4.0	8	19
80	Navy	AAC	-5.1	3	-15
81	San Diego State	MWC	-5.1	-2	0
82	Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.2	4	15
83	Arizona	Pac-12	-5.3	-6	-7
84	Toledo	MAC	-5.5	4	1
85	San Jose State	MWC	-5.7	6	27
86	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-5.7	-2	8
87	Rice	CUSA	-5.8	17	19
88	Rutgers	Big Ten	-6.0	-3	13
89	Wyoming	MWC	-6.2	-9	-17
90	Ball State	MAC	-6.4	6	5
91	Nevada	MWC	-7.5	-10	-12
92	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-7.8	16	-22
93	Colorado State	MWC	-8.0	0	-4
94	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-8.5	-5	10
95	Troy	Sun Belt	-8.8	15	10
96	Ohio	MAC	-9.0	-4	-8
97	South Florida	AAC	-9.7	-3	-4
98	Miami (OH)	MAC	-9.8	-3	-12
99	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-10.1	-2	15
100	Kent State	MAC	-10.3	-2	9
101	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-10.4	1	-21
102	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-11.4	3	-12
103	Army	Ind	-11.8	0	4
104	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-12.4	15	19
105	Syracuse	ACC	-12.6	4	-31
106	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-13.2	1	-4
107	Hawaii	MWC	-13.7	-6	-7
108	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-14.0	5	-24
109	Central Michigan	MAC	-14.0	-9	-22
110	New Mexico	MWC	-14.3	5	7
111	Charlotte	CUSA	-14.6	-21	-20
112	Kansas	Big 12	-14.9	8	-2
113	Temple	AAC	-15.0	-2	-38
114	Western Michigan	MAC	-15.4	-15	-6
115	Texas State	Sun Belt	-16.2	-1	9
116	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-17.0	2	-34
117	Northern Illinois	MAC	-17.8	-5	5
118	North Texas	CUSA	-18.2	-1	0
119	Utah State	MWC	-18.2	-3	-16
120	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-19.1	-14	-5
121	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-19.2	0	6
122	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-21.3	0	-6
123	Florida International	CUSA	-22.9	0	-12
124	Akron	MAC	-24.2	0	-3
125	Massachusetts	Ind	-27.2	0	1
126	Bowling Green State	MAC	-27.6	1	-1
127	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-28.5	-1	-7

Time to check out the College Football Picks Week 14, as we are treated with a huge matchup between two undefeated teams: #13 BYU @ #18 Coastal Carolina. Also on the docket:

• #1 Alabama and #6 Florida hope to avoid upsets against rivals heading into the SEC Championship
• #12 Indiana travels to #16 Wisconsin without starting QB Michael Penix Jr.
• #5 Texas A&M gets their final big test of the year @ Auburn
• Virginia Tech will have a shot to shatter #3 Clemson’s ACC Title dreams
• #9 Iowa State can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win over West Virginia
• Arkansas and Missouri square off in a battle between two of the most underrated teams in the country
• UCLA and Arizona State will treat us to some #Pac12AfterDark fun

All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 327-110 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 39-35-2 (53%)
ATS Total: 204-197-36 (51%)

Best Bets

TCU (+1.5) vs #21 Oklahoma State – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
Northern Illinois (+11.5) vs Toledo – 12 PM ET, ESPN3
Akron (-1.5) vs Bowling Green – 2 PM ET, ESPN3
Illinois (+13.5) vs #19 Iowa – 3:30 PM ET, FS1
Boston College (+7) @ Virginia – 3:30 PM ET, ACC RSN/ESPN3
LSU (+29.5) vs #1 Alabama – 8 PM ET, CBS

Thursday, December 3rd

Louisiana Tech (4-3, 3-2 C-USA) @ North Texas (3-4, 2-3 C-USA)
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech -4

CSD Pick: Louisiana Tech 30, North Texas 28

Air Force (2-2, 1-2 MW) @ Utah State (1-4, 1-4 MW)
9:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Air Force -10.5

CSD Pick: Air Force 32, Utah State 21

Friday, December 4th

#25 Louisiana (8-1, 6-1 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (7-2, 5-1 Sun Belt)
8:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -3.5

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 30, Louisiana 29

Saturday, December 5th

#4 Ohio State (4-0 Big Ten) @ Michigan State (2-3 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Ohio State -23.5

CSD Pick: Ohio State 42, Michigan State 21

#5 Texas A&M (6-1 SEC) @ Auburn (5-3 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -3.5

I was thoroughly unimpressed by Texas A&M in their 20-7 victory over LSU last week, but it isn’t like Auburn inspired much confidence in their beatdown loss to Alabama either. I expect this to be a low scoring game with both offenses struggling to move the ball, but I trust Kellen Mond to do just enough that the Aggies keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 25, Auburn 17

Texas (5-3, 4-3 Big 12) @ Kansas State (4-5, 4-4 Big 12)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Texas -8.5

CSD Pick: Texas 29, Kansas State 21

Western Carolina (0-2) @ #17 North Carolina (6-3)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: North Carolina -49.5

CSD Pick: North Carolina 64, Western Carolina 5

Rice (1-2, 1-2 C-USA) @ #21 Marshall (7-0, 4-0 C-USA)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Marshall -25

CSD Pick: Marshall 39, Rice 16

#15 Oklahoma State (6-2, 5-2 Big 12) @ TCU (4-4, 4-4 Big 12)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -1.5

TCU has been very inconsistent, but when they’re on, they’re on. The Horned Frogs are at home here, we’ve already seen them beat Texas, and Oklahoma State looked very shaky in the win over Texas Tech last week. Give me Gary Patterson to pull the outright upset and all but lock up an Iowa State vs Oklahoma Big 12 title game.

CSD Pick: TCU 28, Oklahoma State 21

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – TCU +1.5

Toledo (2-2 MAC) @ Northern Illinois (0-4 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Toledo -11.5

I bet on Toledo last week, and checking out a bit of their game… this is not a good team. I know Northern Illinois is 0-4, but they are better than that record indicates, and the Huskies have the home edge. Give me NIU getting 11.5.

CSD Pick: Toledo 32, Northern Illinois 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Northern Illinois +11.5

Kansas (0-8, 0-7 Big 12) @ Texas Tech (3-6, 2-6 Big 12)
12 PM ET, FS2
Vegas Line: Texas Tech -27.5

CSD Pick: Texas Tech 40, Kansas 9

Nebraska (1-4 Big Ten) @ Purdue (2-3 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Purdue -2

CSD Pick: Purdue 31, Nebraska 29

Penn State (1-5 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (2-4 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Penn State -9

CSD Pick: Penn State 29, Rutgers 18

Memphis (6-2, 4-2 AAC) @ Tulane (5-5, 2-5 AAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Tulane -2

CSD Pick: Tulane 34, Memphis 30

Arkansas (3-5 SEC) @ Missouri (4-3 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Missouri -2.5

These are two of the most underrated teams in the nation. Playing an SEC only schedule has led to both having significantly deflated records, but these are good teams that are both on the upswing. I’ve been a fan of Missouri all year, consistently ranking them in my computer model’s top 25, and there’s a reason for that, as anyone who tuned into the Tigers’ 41-0 drubbing of Vanderbilt saw. Expect a follow-up performance here.

CSD Pick: Missouri 30, Arkansas 25

Ball State (3-1 MAC) @ Central Michigan (3-1 MAC)
2 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Central Michigan -3

CSD Pick: Central Michigan 36, Ball State 34

Troy (4-5, 2-3 Sun Belt) @ South Alabama (4-6, 3-4 Sun Belt)
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Troy -1.5

CSD Pick: South Alabama 27, Troy 26

Eastern Michigan (0-4 MAC) @ Western Michigan (4-0 MAC)
2 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Western Michigan -14

CSD Pick: Western Michigan 37, Eastern Michigan 26

Bowling Green (0-4 MAC) @ Akron (0-4 MAC)
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Akron -1.5

Akron is bad, but Bowling Green is the worst team in the country. The Falcons allow almost 50 points per game on average, and while Akron won’t come close to touching that mark, the Zips will cover 1.5.

CSD Pick: Akron 23, Bowling Green 16

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Akron -1.5

Syracuse (1-9, 1-8 ACC) @ #2 Notre Dame (9-0, 8-0 ACC)
2:30 PM ET, NBC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -33.5

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 45, Syracuse 7

UL Monroe (0-9, 0-6 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State (3-7, 1-6 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -21

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 40, UL Monroe 19

#6 Florida (7-1 SEC) @ Tennessee (2-5 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Florida -17

Florida looks like it is firing on all cylinders right now heading into the SEC Championship Game, and Tennessee is reeling. The Vols, led by Jarrett Guarantano, have lost five in a row, and most of those haven’t been particularly close. I just can’t see Guarantano and company scoring on the Florida defense. The Gators will roll.

CSD Pick: Florida 45, Tennessee 25

#12 Indiana (5-1 Big Ten) @ #16 Wisconsin (2-1 Big Ten)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Wisconsin -10.5

Michael Penix Jr. is, unfortunately, out for Indiana, and traveling to face Wisconsin without your starting quarterback is a tall ask for any team. The Badgers turned the ball over a lot in their loss to Northwestern, but they still looked like a solid team, and are probably top-ten in the nation in terms of pure talent level. I’ll take the Badgers, at home, to win this one and improve to 3-1 as they head toward a potential matchup with Ohio State if the Buckeyes can’t qualify for the Big Ten title game.

CSD Pick: Wisconsin 33, Indiana 22

West Virginia (5-3, 4-3 Big 12) @ #9 Iowa State (7-2, 7-1 Big 12)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Iowa State -7

Iowa State can lock up a Big 12 title berth with a win here, and I think they’ll do it. I like West Virginia a lot, the Mountaineers have the best defense in the Big 12 and they catch Iowa State riding high, but the Cyclones are just too talented and at home. RB Breece Hall is one of the best backs in the country, and I expect ISU to head into their Big 12 title showdown vs Oklahoma with their top-ten ranking intact.

CSD Pick: Iowa State 30, West Virginia 24

#19 Iowa (4-2 Big Ten) @ Illinois (2-3 Big Ten)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa -13.5

I picked Illinois last week and they went out and beat Nebraska straight up by 18 on the road, I’m going to ride with the hot hand to easily cover the 13.5 at home. Iowa is a great team, but they aren’t going to put up a ton of points, and I think that Chase Brown and the Illini offense will do enough to keep this one within the number.

CSD Pick: Iowa 26, Illinois 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Illinois +13.5

#24 Tulsa (5-1, 5-0 AAC) @ Navy (3-5, 3-3 AAC)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Tulsa -10.5

CSD Pick: Tulsa 33, Navy 22

Boston College (6-4, 5-4 ACC) @ Virginia (4-4, 3-4 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ACC RSN/ESPN3
Vegas Line: Virginia -7

Jeff Hafley’s Boston College Eagles are one of the best stories of college football this season. Phil Jurkovec is great, Virginia’s secondary is terrible, and BC should easily be able to keep this within seven, with a great shot at a straight-up road upset against the red-hot Cavaliers.

CSD Pick: Virginia 28, Boston College 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boston College +7

Buffalo (4-0 MAC) @ Ohio (2-1 MAC) – CANCELED
3:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -9.5

CSD Pick: Buffalo 40, Ohio 30

Vanderbilt (0-8 SEC) @ #8 Georgia (6-2 SEC) – CANCELED
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -33.5

CSD Pick: Georgia 39, Vanderbilt 8

Stanford (1-2, 1-2 Pac-12) @ #22 Washington (3-0, 3-0 Pac-12)
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Washington -10.5

CSD Pick: Washington 31, Stanford 20

Georgia Tech (3-5, 3-4 ACC) @ NC State (7-3, 6-3 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: NC State -8.5

CSD Pick: NC State 33, Georgia Tech 26

#13 BYU (9-0) @ #18 Coastal Carolina (9-0)

5:30 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: BYU -10

Only once in the past 50 years have we gotten a non-bowl undefeated vs undefeated matchup in December: #2 Alabama vs #1 Florida in the 2009 SEC Championship, the game that is considered to have started the Alabama dynasty. The Crimson Tide won that game and then defeated Texas to win Nick Saban’s first national title with the Tide.

On two days’ notice, a second game will join that limited club, as BYU will fill in for Liberty in this December “bracket buster” style game between two non-P5 unbeatens. I think BYU will win despite being on the road, Zach Wilson is better than any QB that the Chants have seen this year, but regardless of the result, this is an awesome moment for both programs, with College Gameday on hand for this clash.

CSD Pick: BYU 34, Coastal Carolina 23

Florida Atlantic (5-1) @ Georgia Southern (6-4)
6 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 27, Florida Atlantic 24

San Jose State (4-0, 4-0 MW) @ Hawai’i (3-3, 3-3 MW)
6 PM ET, Spectrum Sports
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Hawai‘i 30, San Jose State 28

#23 Oregon (3-1, 3-1 Pac-12) @ California (0-3, 0-3 Pac-12)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oregon -11

CSD Pick: Oregon 34, California 22

Colorado (3-0, 2-0 Pac-12) @ Arizona (0-3, 0-3 Pac-12)
7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Colorado -3.5

CSD Pick: Colorado 28, Arizona 21

Colorado State (1-2, 1-2 MW) @ San Diego State (3-3, 3-2 MW)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: San Diego State -9.5

CSD Pick: San Diego State 31, Colorado State 22

#3 Clemson (8-1, 7-1 ACC) @ Virginia Tech (4-5, 4-4 ACC)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -21.5

Virginia Tech is better than their 4-5 record indicates, but come on, Trevor Lawrence and Clemson will roll here, even on the road. A victory in this one would lock in a Clemson vs Notre Dame ACC Championship Game, and I expect the Tigers to wrap this up by halftime.

CSD Pick: Clemson 45, Virginia Tech 25

South Carolina (2-7 SEC) @ Kentucky (3-6)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Kentucky -11

CSD Pick: Kentucky 26, South Carolina 19

#1 Alabama (8-0 SEC) @ LSU (3-4 SEC)

8 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama -29.5

I bet against Alabama last week and it didn’t go well, but I’m doing it again. LSU’s defense looked solid against Texas A&M last week, and the Tigers’ offense is getting 29.5 points here, the biggest spread ever given to a defending national champion. I have to take that on principle alone.

CSD Pick: Alabama 44, LSU 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – LSU +29.5

Baylor (2-5, 2-5 Big 12) @ #11 Oklahoma (6-2, 5-2 Big 12)
8 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -22.5

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 39, Baylor 21

#10 Miami (7-1, 6-1 ACC) @ Duke (2-7, 1-7 ACC)
8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Miami -15

CSD Pick: Miami 32, Duke 19

Fresno State (3-1, 3-1 MW) @ Nevada (5-1, 5-1 MW)
10:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Nevada -7.5

CSD Pick: Nevada 33, Fresno State 25

Wyoming (2-2, 2-2 MW) @ New Mexico (0-5, 0-5 MW)
10:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Wyoming -16

CSD Pick: Wyoming 31, New Mexico 19

Oregon State (2-2, 2-2 Pac-12) @ Utah (0-2, 0-2 Pac-12)
10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Utah -7.5

CSD Pick: Utah 31, Oregon State 28

UCLA (2-2, 2-2 Pac-12) @ Arizona State (0-1, 0-1 Pac-12)

10:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Arizona State -6

The best game of the Pac-12 after dark window is probably UCLA and Arizona State on FS1. Poor Arizona State hasn’t played since they took USC to the wire on the road in week one, but they impressed me a lot in that game, so with the home edge, I’ll take them to win a close one, assuming all the COVID issues are over for the Sun Devils.

CSD Pick: Arizona State 30, UCLA 29

Sunday, December 6th

Western Kentucky (4-6, 3-3 C-USA) @ Charlotte (2-3, 2-1 C-USA)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Charlotte -1

CSD Pick: Charlotte 30, Western Kentucky 22

Washington State (1-1, 1-1 Pac-12) @ #18 USC (3-0, 3-0 Pac-12)
7:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: USC -13

CSD Pick: USC 38, Washington State 23

These projections are NOT if the season ended today, they are projected ahead to the end of the season

GoodYear Cotton Bowl Classic

December 30th, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN
Arlington, TX
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Wisconsin vs Cincinnati

Would a 5-1 Wisconsin make the New Year’s Six? Maybe not, but I’m not sure who I am snubbing here. The Cotton Bowl feels like a solid landing spot for Cincinnati, which may finish the season ranked 5th as the first team out.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

January 1st, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN
Atlanta, GA
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma vs Georgia

These are the two highest ranked two-loss teams in the country, and thus each will have a good shot at a New Year’s Six bowl if they win out, which I expect both to do.

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

January 2nd, 4 PM ET, ESPN
Glendale, AZ
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: BYU vs. USC

USC solidified their position as the Pac-12 favorite after Orgeon lost on Friday. The Trojans will likely take on BYU here, a team that is all but certain to finish unbeaten, with just a game against SDSU remaining.

Capital One Orange Bowl

January 2nd, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
ACC vs. Big Ten or SEC
Bowl Projection: Clemson vs. Florida

This is the only NY6 game this year with tie-ins, as an ACC team must face a team from the Big Ten or SEC. The loser of the ACC Title game will likely slot in here, as will the loser of the SEC Title game, barring either making the playoff.

Rose Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 5 PM ET, ESPN
Pasadena, CA
CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Both of these teams will be significant favorites in each of their remaining regular-season games before facing tough competition in their respective title games. I do, however, expect each to get through unscathed.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
New Orleans, LA
CFP vs. CFP
Projection: Alabama vs. Texas A&M

Things are looking up for Texas A&M. Get through Auburn this week, hope Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State win their conferences, and you are the logical choice for the #4 spot.

College Football Playoff National Championship

January 11th, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama

A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season,. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.

Rank	Team	Conf	RATING	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	31.26	0	0
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	27.18	0	0
3	Notre Dame	ACC	22.97	2	11
4	Clemson	ACC	22.44	0	-1
5	Florida	SEC	22.02	-2	2
6	Oklahoma	Big 12	20.46	0	-1
7	Wisconsin	Big Ten	20.45	0	5
8	Georgia	SEC	18.91	3	-4
9	Cincinnati	AAC	17.42	1	11
10	Texas A&M	SEC	16.26	-2	-2
11	Southern California	Pac-12	16.18	1	4
12	Iowa State	Big 12	13.92	7	9
13	Iowa	Big Ten	13.68	-4	19
14	Louisiana State	SEC	13.60	11	-5
15	Penn State	Big Ten	13.42	19	-9
16	Arizona State	Pac-12	13.38	0	15
17	Brigham Young	Ind	13.32	0	34
18	Missouri	SEC	12.55	4	38
19	Auburn	SEC	12.17	-1	-9
20	West Virginia	Big 12	11.94	0	33
21	Indiana	Big Ten	11.48	-8	16
22	North Carolina	ACC	11.21	-7	-5
23	Oregon	Pac-12	10.81	-2	-10
24	Miami (FL)	ACC	10.50	2	6
25	Pittsburgh	ACC	9.82	-2	13
26	Texas	Big 12	9.38	-2	-15
27	Northwestern	Big Ten	9.28	-13	25
28	UCLA	Pac-12	9.16	-1	32
29	Louisville	ACC	9.11	7	-4
30	Wake Forest	ACC	8.97	0	25
31	Washington	Pac-12	8.64	-3	-2
32	Tennessee	SEC	8.53	1	-10
33	Arkansas	SEC	8.03	2	45
34	Kentucky	SEC	7.91	6	-7
35	Virginia	ACC	7.48	2	6
36	Nebraska	Big Ten	7.29	16	-3
37	Central Florida	AAC	7.22	-5	-14
38	Virginia Tech	ACC	6.53	4	-19
39	Texas Christian	Big 12	6.37	5	0
40	Boston College	ACC	5.96	-2	24
41	Oklahoma State	Big 12	5.72	-10	-25
42	Texas Tech	Big 12	5.63	8	17
43	Mississippi	SEC	5.25	-2	-8
44	Utah	Pac-12	4.93	3	-1
45	South Carolina	SEC	4.82	-6	-1
46	Kansas State	Big 12	4.45	7	0
47	Maryland	Big Ten	4.22	17	36
48	Illinois	Big Ten	3.93	-2	6
49	Michigan	Big Ten	3.87	-20	-31
50	Baylor	Big 12	3.84	-7	-16
51	Tulsa	AAC	3.34	-3	41
52	Marshall	CUSA	2.93	-3	25
53	Mississippi State	SEC	2.91	5	-4
54	Stanford	Pac-12	2.72	2	-6
55	Georgia Tech	ACC	1.97	13	12
56	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	1.89	6	-16
57	Minnesota	Big Ten	1.64	0	-33
58	North Carolina State	ACC	1.54	-3	-1
59	California	Pac-12	1.39	-8	-23
60	Houston	AAC	1.38	-1	-2
61	Washington State	Pac-12	1.27	-1	7
62	Purdue	Big Ten	1.22	-17	-17
63	Tulane	AAC	0.85	-2	10
64	Michigan State	Big Ten	0.80	14	-1
65	Boise State	MWC	0.43	0	-23
66	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	0.07	5	47
67	Buffalo	MAC	-0.22	-4	4
68	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-0.31	2	-18
69	Florida State	ACC	-0.60	0	-41
70	Southern Methodist	AAC	-1.09	-16	-23
71	Liberty	Ind	-1.27	1	48
72	East Carolina	AAC	-1.28	11	24
73	Memphis	AAC	-1.34	-6	-47
74	Oregon State	Pac-12	-1.57	-1	-12
75	Duke	ACC	-1.92	-9	-9
76	Colorado	Pac-12	-2.46	-1	23
77	Arizona	Pac-12	-2.71	-1	-1
78	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-3.77	-1	-17
79	San Diego State	MWC	-3.88	-5	2
80	Wyoming	MWC	-4.24	5	-8
81	Nevada	MWC	-4.40	0	-2
82	Air Force	MWC	-4.44	0	-13
83	Navy	AAC	-4.50	3	-18
84	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-4.51	0	10
85	Rutgers	Big Ten	-4.95	6	16
86	Vanderbilt	SEC	-5.24	-7	11
87	Fresno State	MWC	-7.14	1	11
88	Toledo	MAC	-7.94	-8	-3
89	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-8.48	0	15
90	Charlotte	CUSA	-8.50	0	1
91	San Jose State	MWC	-8.76	1	21
92	Ohio	MAC	-8.96	3	-4
93	Colorado State	MWC	-9.18	1	-4
94	South Florida	AAC	-9.67	4	-1
95	Miami (OH)	MAC	-9.77	6	-9
96	Ball State	MAC	-9.81	11	-1
97	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-10.08	14	17
98	Kent State	MAC	-10.35	1	11
99	Western Michigan	MAC	-10.42	-12	9
100	Central Michigan	MAC	-10.54	-4	-13
101	Hawaii	MWC	-10.65	-4	-1
102	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-11.60	-2	-22
103	Army	Ind	-11.85	-1	4
104	Rice	CUSA	-12.42	0	2
105	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-12.53	-12	-15
106	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-12.90	9	9
107	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-13.21	-1	-5
108	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-13.98	1	-38
109	Syracuse	ACC	-14.05	1	-35
110	Troy	Sun Belt	-14.99	-2	-5
111	Temple	AAC	-15.05	2	-36
112	Northern Illinois	MAC	-15.32	7	10
113	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-15.41	1	-29
114	Texas State	Sun Belt	-16.20	-2	10
115	New Mexico	MWC	-16.28	-10	2
116	Utah State	MWC	-16.48	5	-13
117	North Texas	CUSA	-16.75	-14	1
118	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-16.97	-2	-36
119	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.28	-2	4
120	Kansas	Big 12	-19.01	-2	-10
121	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-19.15	-1	6
122	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-21.33	0	-6
123	Florida International	CUSA	-22.87	1	-12
124	Akron	MAC	-23.66	-1	-3
125	Massachusetts	Ind	-27.17	0	1
126	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-27.34	0	-6
127	Bowling Green State	MAC	-28.12	0	-2