College Football Picks Week 15 – The Regular Season Finale

It is now time for the final week of the college football regular season. Here is what’s on the docket:

• #1 Alabama and #6 Florida face their final tests prior to the SEC Championship Game
• #21 Colorado hopes to close out the regular season unbeaten with a win over Utah
• #15 USC can clinch a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a win against rival UCLA
• #9 Georgia faces #25 Missouri and #10 Miami squares off with #17 North Carolina in big ranked vs ranked showdowns
• #22 Oklahoma State hopes to stay ranked taking on Baylor
• #16 Iowa faces Wisconsin, with the winner potentially drawing Indiana next week
• Wake Forest and Louisville will battle in what should be a close and exciting ACC clash

All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 360-123 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 41-39-2 (51%)
ATS Total: 222-223-368 (50%)

Best Bets

UTEP (+10.5) vs North Texas – Friday, 6 PM ET, ESPN3
#25 Missouri (+13.5) vs #9 Georgia – 12 PM ET, SEC Network
Ball State (-2.5) vs Western Michigan – 12 PM ET, ESPN+
Rice (+9) vs UAB – 1 PM ET, ESPN3
Auburn (+9) @ Mississippi State – 7:30 PM ET, SEC Network

Thursday, December 10th

Florida Atlantic (5-2, 4-1 C-USA) @ Southern Miss (2-7, 1-4 C-USA)
6:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -7.5

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 30, Southern Miss 21

Pitt (5-5, 4-5 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (3-6, 3-5 ACC)
7 PM ET, ESPN3/ACC RSN
Vegas Line: Pitt -5

CSD Pick: Pitt 27, Georgia Tech 18

Friday, December 11th

North Texas (3-5, 2-4 C-USA) @ UTEP (3-4, 0-3 C-USA)
6 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: North Texas -10.5

Coming into 2020, UTEP was expected to be the worst team in college football, and while they are by no means good, or even average, they’ve well surpassed expectations, probably to the point where Dana Dimel will be back for another year. Now, I’m not sure if they will pull the outright upset on North Texas to close out the year here, but it certainly isn’t out of the question, and they’ll definitely cover.

CSD Pick: North Texas 31, UTEP 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – UTEP +10.5

Arizona State (0-2, 0-2 Pac-12) @ Arizona (0-4, 0-4 Pac-12)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Arizona State -8.5

CSD Pick: Arizona State 28, Arizona 20

Nevada (6-1, 6-1 MW) vs San Jose State (5-0, 5-0 MW) in Las Vegas, NV
10 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: San Jose State -3.5

CSD Pick: Nevada 30, San Jose State 29

Saturday, December 12th

#1 Alabama (9-0 SEC) @ Arkansas (3-6 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Alabama -31

Arkansas has clearly overperformed on expectations, there were many that thought the ‘Hogs would not win a single game this year, and they have won three. That being said, they will not be close to touching Alabama this weekend. The Tide will roll.

CSD Pick: Alabama 51, Arkansas 23

#9 Georgia (6-2 SEC) @ #25 Missouri (5-3 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -13.5

A lot of people had a problem with the committee ranking Missouri with a 5-3 record, but not me. The Tigers have been top-25 in my computer model for most of the season, and at home, with a chance to prove themselves against a very good Georgia team, I see Eli Drinkwitz’ Tigers keeping this one competitive from start to finish and easily covering the 13.5.

CSD Pick: Georgia 30, Missouri 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Missouri +13.5

Illinois (2-4 Big Ten) @ #14 Northwestern (5-1 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Northwestern -14.5

CSD Pick: Northwestern 30, Illinois 19

Utah (1-2, 1-2 Pac-12) @ #21 Colorado (4-0, 3-0 Pac-12)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Colorado -2.5

CSD Pick: Colorado 29, Utah 26

Michigan State (2-4 Big Ten) @ Penn State (2-5 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ABC (was ESPN at 3:30)
Vegas Line: Penn State -13

CSD Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan State 18

Rutgers (2-5 Big Ten) @ Maryland (2-2 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Maryland -7.5

CSD Pick: Maryland 26, Rutgers 17

Minnesota (2-3 Big Ten) @ Nebraska (2-4 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Nebraska -9

CSD Pick: Nebraska 27, Minnesota 21

Northern Illinois (0-5 MAC) @ Eastern Michigan (1-4 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan -4

CSD Pick: Eastern Michigan 31, Northern Illinois 25

Western Michigan (4-1 MAC) @ Ball State (4-1 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Ball State -2.5

Western Michigan is coming off of a loss to a then-winless EMU team by double digits. Ball State will roll here, locking up a spot in the MAC title game.

CSD Pick: Ball State 39, Western Michigan 32

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Ball State -2.5

Wake Forest (4-3, 3-3 ACC) @ Louisville (3-7, 2-7 ACC)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Louisville -2.5

In a weekend as weak as this one, games like this are going to stand out just because they are expected to be competitive, although this matchup does have some rivalry week stakes as the classic “Wakeyleakes” game. These are two middle of the road ACC teams that are a lot better than their records, especially Louisville. There is way too much talent on the UL offense to finish the year 2-8 in the ACC. I expect the ‘Cards to finish the year on a high note.

CSD Pick: Louisville 36, Wake Forest 30

UAB (4-3, 2-1 C-USA) @ Rice (2-2, 2-2 C-USA)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: UAB -9

Rice ended Conference USA’s little hope for a New Year’s Six bowl berth last week when they upset Marshall, and I think they have a good shot at pulling another upset and beating a UAB team that has had a very disappointing year.

CSD Pick: Rice 27, UAB 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Rice +9

Akron (1-4 MAC) @ Buffalo (4-0 MAC)
2:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -33.5

CSD Pick: Buffalo 44, Akron 11

#13 Coastal Carolina (10-0, 7-0 Sun Belt) @ Troy (5-5, 3-3 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -14

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 33, Troy 21

Central Michigan (3-2 MAC) @ Toledo (3-2 MAC)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Toledo -10.5

CSD Pick: Toledo 37, Central Michigan 26

Navy (3-6) @ Army (7-2)
3 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Army -5

CSD Pick: Army 24, Navy 23

#17 North Carolina (7-3, 6-3 ACC) @ #10 Miami (8-1, 7-1 ACC)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Miami -4

The biggest game of the weekend comes from the ACC in what may be a New Year’s Six qualifiers. The UNC offense has been dynamite this year, but the defense has been too flimsy and has cost them some games. I trust Miami’s D a little more, and I expect D’Eriq King to go all out for his final game in Coral Gables. Give me the U picking up their ninth win of the season.

CSD Pick: Miami 36, North Carolina 34

Wisconsin (2-2 Big Ten) @ #16 Iowa (5-2 Big Ten)

3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa -3

A win for Iowa here may keep them in the hunt for a New Year’s Six berth when you factor in a potential win over Indiana next weekend (should the Hoosiers be able to play). Wisconsin, which has dealt with lots of COVID issues, has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country for me, and with the Hawkeyes red hot, at home, I expect them to continue to climb in the CFP rankings.

CSD Pick: Iowa 26, Wisconsin 25

#22 Oklahoma State (6-3, 5-3 Big 12) @ Baylor (2-6, 2-6 Big 12)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN (was ESPNU at 7)
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -5

Oklahoma State is eliminated from Big 12 title contention, on the road, and against a Baylor team that is better than their record indicates, so there is some cause for concern. An upset would not shock me here. With that being said, the Cowboys’ defense is still very talented, and I don’t trust Charlie Brewer and the Baylor offense in this spot. I’ll take the Pokes.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 26, Baylor 25

Houston (3-3, 3-2 AAC) @ Memphis (6-3, 4-3 AAC)
3:45 PM ET, ESPN2 (was ESPNU at 3:30)
Vegas Line: Houston -2.5

CSD Pick: Houston 41, Memphis 37

Washington (3-1, 3-1 Pac-12) @ Oregon (3-2, 3-2 Pac-12) – CANCELED

4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oregon -5.5

The stakes for this one are huge, as the winner will get a crack at the Pac-12 title next week. Both teams have had disappointing years, but I trust Oregon more despite the worse record. I have never been impressed while watching Washington play, while OU clearly has talent and explosiveness on their offense and just needs to put the pieces together. I’ve got the Ducks, but it will a low-scoring, close game.

CSD Pick: Oregon 26, Washington 25

Duke (2-8, 1-8 ACC) @ Florida State (2-6, 1-6 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Florida State -4.5

CSD Pick: Florida State 26, Duke 21

Tennessee (2-6 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-8 SEC)
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -14.5

CSD Pick: Tennessee 29, Vanderbilt 11

Boise State (4-1, 4-0 MW) @ Wyoming (2-3, 2-3 MW)
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Boise State -11

CSD Pick: Boise State 28, Wyoming 19

Appalachian State (7-3, 5-2 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (7-4, 4-3 Sun Belt)
6 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -9.5

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 33, Georgia Southern 27

LSU (3-5 SEC) @ #6 Florida (8-1 SEC)

7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -23

LSU is bad this year, there is no way around it. Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, and company will dominate an awful LSU defense, and the Gators will head into the SEC Championship next week with the #6 still beside their name.

CSD Pick: Florida 45, LSU 25

Louisiana Tech (5-3) @ TCU (5-4)
7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: TCU -21

CSD Pick: TCU 37, Louisiana Tecg 16

#15 USC (4-0, 4-0 Pac-12) @ UCLA (3-2, 3-2 Pac-12)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: USC -3

The plan is simple for USC. Win this one, win the Pac-12 title game, and you are into a New Year’s Six Bowl. UCLA doesn’t quite have aspirations like that, but they can shatter their rival’s undefeated season, and for Bruins fans, that would be pretty sweet. UCLA has been very good this year and has been playing about as well as any team in the Pac-12 recently. With that being said, this USC team is hungry and talented, and I expect them to clinch their Pac-12 title berth.

CSD Pick: USC 32, UCLA 25

Auburn (5-4 SEC) @ Mississippi State (2-6 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Auburn -9

The record isn’t pretty, but Mississippi State has been playing well the past few weeks, and Auburn… has not. Expect a dejected, reeling Auburn squad to struggle with Mike Leach’s group on the road.

CSD Pick: Auburn 26, Mississippi State 21

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Mississippi State +9

Virginia (5-4, 4-4 ACC) @ Virginia Tech (4-6, 4-5 ACC)
8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -3

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 33, Virginia 30

Utah State (1-5, 1-5 MW) @ Colorado State (1-3, 1-3 MW) CANCELED
9:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Colorado State -12

CSD Pick: Colorado State 30, Utah State 16

San Diego State (4-3) @ #18 BYU (9-1)
10 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: BYU -15.5

CSD Pick: BYU 35, San Diego State 19

Stanford (2-2, 2-2 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (2-3, 2-3 Pac-12)
10 PM ET, ESPNU (was 10:30)
Vegas Line: Oregon State -3.5

CSD Pick: Stanford 30, Oregon State 28

Fresno State (3-2, 3-2 MW) @ New Mexico (1-5, 1-5 MW)
10:30 PM ET, FS1 (was FS2)
Vegas Line: Fresno State -11.5

CSD Pick: Fresno State 34, New Mexico 22

UNLV (0-5, 0-5 MW) @ Hawai’i (3-4, 3-4 MW)
11 PM ET, Team1 App/Spectrum Sports
Vegas Line: Hawai’i -21.5

CSD Pick: Hawai’i 34, UNLV 18