Most Valuable Player

Candidates: RB Ezekiel Elliot (Cowboys), QB Tom Brady (Patriots), QB Derek Carr (Raiders), QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons), QB Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

My Pick: QB Matt Ryan, Falcons

This year’s Falcons offense was one of the best in history, and it was led by Matt Ryan. No matter what stat you use to determine the best passer in the league, Matt Ryan leads them all. He leads the league in both passer ratings (QBR and the old fashioned passer ratings) Ryan has thrown for an outstanding 9.3 yards per attempt, and 13.3 yards per completion. He has thrown with pinpoint accuracy this year, coming just short of a 70% completion percentage at 69.9, Ryan also threw 38 touchdowns over the course of the year, and limited his interceptions to just seven.

Offensive Player of the Year

Candidates: RB David Johnson (Cardinals), RB Le’Veon Bell (Steelers), RB Ezekiel Elliot (Cowboys), QB Tom Brady (Patriots), QB Derek Carr (Raiders), QB Matt Ryan (Falcons), QB Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

My Pick: RB David Johnson (Cardinals)

It would make sense that if the winner of the MVP was offensive that they would automatically win offensive player of the year, but that is often not the case. The Offensive Player of the Year seems to be an award that goes to the player that without them, the team would be completely different, and without David Johnson, I’m not sure that the Cardinals would even have an offense. Johnson has been the best running back in the NFL this year, and he gets rewarded with OPOY honors.

Defensive Player of the Year

Candidates: S Landon Collins (Giants), OLB Von Miller (Broncos), S Eric Berry (Chiefs), OLB Khalil Mack (Raiders)

My Pick: OLB Von Miller (Broncos)

This award has been JJ Watt’s for three of the past four years, but with Watt injured it opens the door for a new winner, and while Collins, Mack, and Berry had good years, this award is pretty clearly going to be won by the sack machine Von Miller. Miller accounted for 13.5 sacks this year, second best in the NFL, and he nearly doubled the first place guy in tackles, totaling 62 on the season. The Broncos didn’t make the playoffs, but they will get an award here.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Candidates: WR Michael Thomas (Saints), QB Dak Prescott (Cowboys), RB Ezekiel Elliot (Cowboys), OT Jack Conklin (Titans)

My Pick: RB Ezekiel Elliot (Cowboys)

Both Dak and Zeke are worthy of this award, and while Michael Thomas and Jack Conklin don’t get nearly as much coverage, they also each had great years, but this comes down to the two from Dallas. Dak has been extremely efficent with the ball, only throwing a pick four times this year, compared to 23 touchdowns. Despite that, I have to give this one to Zeke. He leads the league in rushing as a rookie, and it’s not even close, and while the Cowboys’ superb offensive line deserves some of the credit, you’ve got to give Zeke some too, and that leads him to his first award.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Candidates: CB Jalen Ramsey (Jaguars), DE Joey Bosa (Chargers), S Keanu Neal (Falcons)

My Pick: DE Joey Bosa (Chargers)

Jalen Ramsey had a great year, but this is an automatic win for Bosa. Bosa missed training camp and the first quarter of the season, yet he still wound up with 10.5 sacks and 41 tackles, accounting for the four missed games, that sack number goes up to 14, which would actually eclipse defensive player of the year Von Miller, an extraordinary feat for a rookie.

Coach of the Year

Candidates: Jack Del Rio (Raiders), Bill Belichick (Patriots), Jason Garrett (Cowboys)

My Pick: Bill Belichick (Patriots)

These are three very deserving candidates, Del Rio brought the struggling Raiders to the playoffs, and it could have been more if not for an injury. Jason Garrett got the #1 seed in the NFC after his starting quarterback got injured, but this award has to go to the greatest coach in the history of football, Bill Belichick. Belichick led the Patriots to a 16-2 season without Gronk for most of the year, and he went 3-1 without Tom Brady (maybe he’s a system quarterback? another issue for another day) but after all, Belichick led the Patriots to the Super Bowl with a 5th round pick at QB, an undrafted at running back, and a 7th rounder and another undrafted at the two receivers. Absolutely fantastic.

Comeback Player of the Year

Candidates: RB Demarco Murray (Titans), WR Jordy Nelson (Packers), RB Melvin Gordon (Chargers)

My Pick: WR Jordy Nelson (Packers)

This is another pretty easy one. After missing the entirety of last year with an ACL tear, Jordy Nelson came back from injury and immediately became Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, he led the Packers reception wise, with 97 catches for 1,257 yards, and fourteen touchdowns. Nelson was a big part in the Packers’ run to the NFC Title game, and that earns him comeback player of the year honors.

Wild Card Weekend Picks: 4 correct, 0 incorrect

(4) @ (1) – 4:40PM ET, FOX

While the argument of which of these two are the most storied franchise in history will continue, the winner of this game will take the lead in the all-time series, and the loser’s Super Bowl hopes are over. This is the best game of this weekend, as the Packers look to avenge a blowout loss in Lambeu, and they’ve got a good shot at doing it. The Packers’ run defense should be able to slow down Ezekiel Elliot, and Green Bay comes into this game riding a seven game winning streak. However, the loss of Jordy Nelson hurts, and I don’t know if the trio of Rodgers, Montgomery, and Cobb will be able to out score Dak, Zeke, and Dez. It will come down to the last drive, but the Cowboys will take one step closer to their first Super Bowl in 22 years.

The Pick: Cowboys 30, Packers 24 (Cowboys -5.5, Over 51.5)

(3) @ (2) – 8:20PM ET, NBC

Despite the four point difference in the line, I actually was more inclined to take the Packers than the Steelers. While I get people being worried that Le’veon Bell will go off against an injured Chiefs linebacking core, as long as the young backers can slow down Bell, I feel very confident in Kansas City. Ben Roethlisberger was injured towards the end of the Wild Card game against the Dolphins, he was seen in a walking boot after the game, the Chiefs pass rush will be able to bite on that, and slow down the three B’s. On the offensive side of the ball, Alex Smith won’t need to do much, but he will get the job done.

The Pick: Chiefs 24, Steelers 21 (Chiefs -1.5, No Bet)

Wild Card Weekend Picks: 4-0

(3) @ (2) – 4:35PM ET, FOX

For the Seahawks to win this game they need running back Thomas Rawls to go off against a Falcons run defense that has been exposed throughout the year. The Seahawks will also need for their pass rush to put up production like it did last week against the Lions. Earlier this year Seattle took down the Falcons 26-24, but that game was at home, and they had Earl Thomas to slow down the Atlanta passing attackk. Without the Seattle secondary at full strength, Matt Ryan will be able to slowly pick apart the defense. It won’t be as high scoring as everyone thinks, but the Falcons vertical attack will be able to open up the defense for the Falcons’ pair of running backs, and the strong Seahawks defense will crack.

The Pick: Falcons 28, Seahawks 21 (Falcons -4, Under 51.5)

(4) @ (1) – 8:15PM ET, CBS

Most people agree that the Divisional Round Weekend is the best week in the entire NFL season, it’s the last week of the season with more than two games, and since it is (arguably) the eight best teams in the NFL there are usually no mismatches… usually. This probably would have been either the Raiders or Cheifs against the Patriots here, but after an injury to Derek Carr gave the Chiefs a bye, and the Texans a easy win, we get stuck with this matchup. The Texans have had a good year, but the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL (sorry stupid NFL.com metrics) and with Tom Brady leading the offense, the Pats should cruise to a victory.

The Pick: Patriots 31, Texans 10 (Patriots -15, Under 44.5)

(6) @ (3) – 1:05PM ET, CBS

Earlier this year Jay Ajayi led the Dolphins to a win at home over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Ajayi ran for over 200 yards and two touchdowns, and for the ‘Phins to pick up another win over Pittsburgh, on the road this time, he will need to do it again. Miami will have to rely on Ajayi due to an injury to starting QB Matt Tannehill. While Matt Moore is a quality backup, he is a backup nonetheless, and if Pittsburgh’s trio of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball get going, I don’t think Moore will be able to put up enough points to compete. I think the Dolphins pass rush keeps this one closer than expected, but in the end, a big day from Leveon Bell carries the Steelers to a matchup against the Chiefs next week.

The Pick: Steelers 30, Dolphins 19
ATS Pick: Dolphins (+12)
O/U Pick: Over (46)

(5) @ (4) – 4:40PM ET, FOX

By far the best game of Wild Card Weekend will be the finale. Both of these teams come in to the playoffs hot. The Packers come in riding on a six game winning streak following a promise by Aaron Rodgers to do so, and the Giants have only lost two games in the past 91 days. I am well aware of the fact that Eli Manning and the Giants have went into Lambeau, in the playoffs, and came out with a win, twice. But I don’t see anyone stopping Aaron Rodgers, who has been fantastic during the six game winning streak, throwing for 15 touchdown and no interceptions. The Packers won the matchup earlier this year 23-16, and I think they tack on a few extra points to that, and move on to face the Cowboys in the NFC Divisional Round.

The Pick: Packers 26, Giants 17
ATS Pick: Packers (-5.5)
O/U Pick: Under (44.5)

(5) @ (4) – 4:35PM ET, ESPN (Sat 1/7)

Connor Cook vs Brock Osweiler, raise your hand if you had that pegged as a playoff quarterback matchup before the season (if you are raising your hand you need to stop lying.) Cook did not play very well last week in the second half against the Broncos, but to be fair, he was playing one of the best defenses in the NFL on the road. For the Raiders to even have a chance, they will need the rushing game to be keeping the defense honest, hopefully opening up some holes for the rookie. On the other side, the Texans’ defense has been pretty good this year, and I think as long as the defensive front forces pressure, the ball will be in the Texans’ court. Brock Osweiler threw for over 240 yards earlier in the year when these two teams play, and if he can replicate that, this will be a home win for the Texans in a low scoring battle.

The Pick: Texans 21, Raiders 16
ATS Pick: Texans (-3.5)

(6) @ (3) – 8:15PM ET, NBC (Sat 1/7)

I’m not too sure what to think about the Seahawks, they were the only team to beat the Patriots with Tom Brady, but they also lost to the Rams, one of the worst teams in football. As for the Lions, they have kind of limped into the post season on a three game losing streak. With Matthew Stafford always a threat late in the game, the Seahawks are going to have to jump out to an early lead, and the guy to do that is the veteran Jimmy Grahm, if he has a big game, the Seahawks will win, as Detroit doesn’t really have a way to cover him. Even with Earl Thomas out, the Seahawks defense should be able to hold up at home, and send the Lions home packing.

The Pick: Seahawks 28, Lions 16
ATS Pick: Seahawks (-8)

*’s denote my “games to watch”

Last Week: 11 correct, 2 incorrect (85% correct)