Category: FOOTBALL

1.Washington (Ranked #6 Nationally)

Time to delve into the first college football playoff contender of this series, as we take a look at the Washington Huskies. With almost everyone returning from a 10-3 year, Washington should be excellent once again. All three of those 2017 losses were by just a single possession, and the Huskies were a lot closer than you remember to making the college football playoff. QB Jake Browning is back for his senior year after over 6,000 yards passing in his two years as a starter, with a 62-13 touchdown to interception in that timeframe, one of the best in the country. Browning will be a Heisman contender, but he may not even be the most important player on his own team as RB Myles Gaskin is back after 4,000 combined rushing yards in his three years as the starter. NFL Draft picks Dante Pettis and Will Dissly are gone from the receiving core, and Chico McClatcher (out for the year with an injury in 2017) will have to carry the group, he average 18.5 ypc in the slot role back in 2016.

First rounder Vita Vea is a huge loss for this defense. Vea was the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year last season, and while the line gets back both of their other starters and will still be the best in the conference, it will take a step back from their spot as one of the best in the nation. The linebacking group loses 1st team all-conference Keishawn Bierria as well as Azeem Victor, both of whom where drafted. The unit does return an All-American in Ben Burr-Kirvin (84 tackles), and should still be one of the best in the conference. The best unit on the defense though, is the secondary, which may be the best in the country as they return all four from an already extraordinary unit that will hopefully deal with many fewer injuries this year. Auburn is a tough opponent for week one, but the Huskies avoid USC and Arizona from the South and this team should win ten games in the regular season again.

Projected Regular Season Record: 10-2 (8-1 Pac-12)

T2.Stanford (Ranked #15 Nationally)

Fifteen years ago, Stanford was one of the sorriest programs in the power five, but Jim Harbaugh and current coach David Shaw absolutely transformed the program. In his seven years with the team, Shaw has gone an unbelievable 73-22. Last year was “dissapointing” even though Stanford still finished in the top 25 and won nine games in the regular season. Heisman contender Bryce Love was awesome in that run to the Pac-12 Championship Game, going off for 2,118 yards on the ground behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Pro-style QB KJ Costello will be the day one starter after 1,573 yards and a 14-4 touchdown to interception ratio in seven starts, but redshirt freshman Davis Mills may challenge him. Mills was the best player for his position group in the class of 2017, and fans are already clamoring for him to get a shot at the starting role.

The defense did not live up to expectations last season, and will lose about half of their starters, including multiple All-Americans this year, and I would expect an even further step back as two freshman will have to step into starting roles because of a lack of depth. The special teams unit is worth mentioning here as they have a couple all-conference players at kicker and kick returner, and punter Jake Bailey averaged 43.5 yards per punt. The schedule looks pretty rough, as the Cardinal will have to travel to Oregon and Washington, draw USC from the south, and have Notre Dame on the road in the non-conference. This is a dark horse playoff pick but the schedule is really rough.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (5-4 Pac-12)

T2.Oregon (Ranked #25 Nationally)

Oregon went 7-6 last year, but when QB Justin Herbert was healthy, the Ducks were 6-2. Herbert was excellent when he wasn’t injured, passing for nearly 2,000 yards and a 19-4 touchdown to interception ratio in his limited time, putting him on lots of NFL radars. Herbert will have to deal with another coaching change, as Willie Taggart leaves for Florida State. The hire of offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal should allow for some sense of normal, but even when you hire from within, a change at the top is jarring. The running back group looks surprisingly weak for an Oregon team. The Ducks lose their top two including NFL Draft pick Royce Freeman. The projected starter is last year’s #3, Tony Brooks-James (498 yards). As always, UO will add in a couple of speedy freshman that will see carries. On the other hand, the receiving group should be awesome as they return four of the top five and add one of the top receivers in the 2018 class, true freshman Jalen Hall.

The defense was… decent last year? Jim Leavitt took the Ducks from a below-average team for the power five to one that will potentially crack the top 50 in 2018. His aggressive, attacking mentality paid dividends last season, and this group should only improve with most of their starters back and added experience. Two players make my preseason All-Pac 12 team on this side of the ball with Troy Dye (107 tackles, 9.5 TFL, four sacks) at MLB and Jalen Jelks (59 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 6.5 sacks) at DE. The out of conference schedule is super easy, as the Ducks avoid USC from the South, and will get Stanford and Washington at home. I see this team outperforming expectations.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (5-4 Pac-12)

4.Washington State

Washington State dealt with a lot of off-the-field issues over the 2018 offseason as Tyler Hilinski, expected to be the new starter at quarterback to replace NFL Draft selection Luke Falk, tragically lost his life in January. East Carolina transfer Gardner Mishnew (2,140 yards, 16 touchdowns, seven interceptions in five starts with the Pirates last year) will be thrown into a fiery situation with all the emotion surrounding that position. Mike Leach is one of the best coaches in the country when it comes to developing quarterbacks, but while Air Raid systems are always likely to produce a productive quarterback, I still expect a drop down in quality for the 2018 year.

Mike Leach will bring in somebody new to lead the defense in former Minnesota head coach Tracy Claeys. Hercules Mata’afa, an All-American in 2017, is a huge loss, and the defensive line as a whole will take a step back as both Mata’afa and NT Daniel Ekuale will be gone. However, this team should be able to put up sacks like we know Washington State likes to do. Wazzu has one of the easier nonconference schedules in the power five, as they will face zero P5 teams out of conference. However, the Cougars draw all of my three highest rated teams from the South. This team should be pretty good, but because of the schedule, the coaching change on defense, and the emotion surrounding Tyler Hilinski’s death, I certainly wouldn’t call a bowl a guarantee.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-5 Pac-12)

5.California

Cal started off last season with a bang, traveling to North Carolina as double-digit underdogs and coming away with a win. The Golden Bears went on to beat Weber State in week two, and Ole Miss in week three before injuries in the receiving and linebacking groups really caught up with them. Cal finished the year one win short of a bowl at 5-7. Ross Bowers (3,039 yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions) is back at quarterback, and with eight of the top nine back in the receiving group (and hopefully fewer injuries), Cal’s passing game will only improve in 2017. Patrick Laird returns after rushing for over 1,100 yards in 2017, and the Golden Bears add in an interesting freshman to back him up in Biaggio Ali Walsh. Pretty much everybody is back from this offense, and their numbers were already under inflated last year due to injuries. This should be one of the most improved groups in the nation.

The defense is a different story altogether. Both inside linebackers are gone including Cameron Saffle who had to retire due to injury. However, multiple players went out for the year last season, so with Jordan Kunaszyk back (74 tackles) and better injury luck, this may actually be an improved unit despite the losses on the inside. The defensive line is a bigger question mark, as two of three starters are gone with the only one back being end Luc Bequete (27 tackles, two sacks). This feels like a team ready to make a bowl, but the schedule is tough. North Carolina will be much improved, the Bears draw UCLA, USC, and Arizona from the South and get the top three in this division all at home, meaning winnable games against Oregon State and Washington State will be on the road. This is pretty much a tossup but I am leaning no.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-6 Pac-12)

6.Oregon State

If I were to ask you who the worst power five team for 2018 will be, you would probably say Kansas. Well, you would be very wrong. Oregon State was atrocious last year, going 1-11, with the only win being a three point scratch and claw victory against FCS Portland State. It was pretty clear that the Beavers needed a coaching change, and they brought on a former player and most recently offensive coordinator at Washington, Jonathan Smith. I love the hire, but there is nothing Smith is going to be able to do in year one to turn this team around. On offense the biggest positive would be…the offensive line I guess, given that they return four of five from the group. The passing game will be pretty terrible though. Projected starter, senior Jake Luton, started four games last year before being injured, and he didn’t light the world on fire (853 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions).

On defense, I would expect Oregon State to struggle again. The defensive line returns just one starter, Kalani Vakameilalo (20 tackles, two sacks), and I would expect the pass rush to take a step back. The bright spot of this team is probably the secondary, and because of injuries last year, the Beavers will return four players with starting experience and may crack the top half of the conference in opponent passing yards per game. The schedule is certainly less than ideal, as the Beavers will have to travel to Columbus in the nonconference and draw USC and Arizona from the South. Anything over three wins would be shocking.

Projected Regular Season Record: 3-9 (1-8 Pac-12)

If you are reading this when I do the big post at the end this will mean nothing, but to those of you who have been keeping up with each division as it is posted, you made it to the power five! Congrats!

1.USC (Ranked #12 Nationally)

USC is the first true blue blood program that I have wrote about this year. The Trojans haven’t had a losing season since 2000, have won multiple national titles since then, and are almost always the best or one of the best recruiting teams on the west coast. After a bit of a slump after dealing with NCAA violations, new head coach Clay Helton was brought in and has helped the Trojans rebound, firing off back to back seasons of ten wins or more (10-3 in 2016, 11-3 in 2017) en route to a Pac-12 Championship last year. The offense returns a lot from last year’s group that ranked #4 in the conference in points per game… except for it’s quarterback, New York Jets first-round pick Sam Darnold. Darnold will be replaced by either last year’s backup, sophomore Matt Fink, or potentially highly touted true freshman JT Daniels, but it is safe to say that the offense may take a step back without their leader.

The defense was pretty average last year, but outside of the defensive line, they get almost everybody back. The unit to watch on defense would be the linebacking group, which returns three of four starters (Uchenna Nwosu off to the NFL), including potential first-team All-American Cameron Smith (112 tackles, 10.5 for loss last season) and adds two of the best incoming linebackers in the country in Palaie Gaoteote and Solomon Tuliaupupu. Games @ Texas, and vs Notre Dame give USC one of the tougher non-conference schedules in the country, and they will have to travel to face the #2, #3, and #4 highest rated teams in the South: Arizona, Utah, and UCLA. The Trojans will also draw @ Stanford from the North, and therefore will have to put together a lot of wins on the road if they want to be a believable College Football Playoff team.

Projected Regular Season Record: 9-3 (7-2 Pac-12)

2.Arizona

Arizona’s win totals the past four seasons are as follows: ten, seven, three, seven. The Wildcats were already one of the most unpredictable teams in the country, and that is before they went through a coaching change late in the 2017 cycle. Kevin Sumlin is the new man in Tuscon, and he will fit right in with an offense that returns most of their starters, including QB Khalil Tate, who started just eight games and amassed over 3,000 total yards and 26 total touchdowns. Former UCLA offensive coordinator and an assistant to Sumlin at A&M, Noel Mazzone, was hired to take care of this offense. Mazzone has plenty of experience with spread systems and running quarterbacks, and he should fit right in here. JJ Taylor is back after leading running backs with 847 yards on the ground last year, and Nathan Tilford is back after averaging 9.3 (!) yards per carry in limited action. The receiving group for Tate looks great, with seven of the top eight back, including seniors Shun Brown and Tony Ellison, who combined for nearly 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. The tight end, Bryce Wolma, is also back. My questions start to come on the offensive line as the Wildcats will lose three of five and despite the additions of JUCO transfer Steven Bailey and Michigan State transfer Thiro Lukusa, I expect a step back from this part of the offense, although the group as a whole should be improved.

The defense was pretty bad last year, and a lot of freshmen saw playing time. The good news is that those freshmen are now sophomores, but the bad thing is that the Wildcats will need to rely on five of those sophomores to start, with 13 underclassmen in the two-deep altogether (over half!). The defense should improve a little, but will still be one of the worst in the conference. The schedule is an interesting one, and a game at Houston in week two will provide an interesting test out of conference, and the Wildcats will have to travel to UCLA and Utah. On the bright side, Arizona will draw the bottom four from the North, and both projected top 25 teams they will have to face (Oregon, USC) will be at home. A division championship isn’t a crazy thought.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (5-4 Pac-12)

T3.UCLA

Chip Kelly is back in college football, not only that, but Chip Kelly is back as the head coach of a Pac-12 team, only this time it isn’t Oregon, it is the UCLA Bruins. The quarterback situation is a bit murky, but like their cross-division rivals, UCLA has two excellent options to choose between in last year’s backup, Devon Modster (671 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, 64.6% completion rate in limited time) and again like the Trojans, a very highly touted incoming true freshman. In the Bruins’ case, this is four-star Dorian Thompson-Robinson. While the case of who will replace Josh Rosen isn’t settled, whoever the starter will be will have to worry about playing behind a rebuilding offensive line that loses half of it’s starters, including two NFL Draft picks at center and tackle (Scott Quessenberry – Chargers and Kolton Miller – Raiders). Converted D-Lineman Boss Tagaloa and Texas Tech transfer Justin Murphy will likely have to fill into starting roles to plug those holes, but while the rushing numbers may go up thanks to Kelly’s system, I expect worse play.

Kelly brought in a big name at coordinator on the defensive side of the ball in Jerry Azzinatio, who was Kelly’s defensive line coach at Oregon and in the NFL. Azzinatio will have to rebuild the defensive line, his specialty, but this defense will be improved elsewhere, with over half of the starters returning and a lot fewer underclassmen in starting roles (although there will still be some). The schedule is maybe the toughest in the country, as Cincinnati and Fresno State are really tough opponents for G5s, and the Bruins will probably get clobbered when they go play @ Oklahoma, meaning they may start conference play at 1-2. When they get there, things don’t get much better, as they draw each of the top three from the North and have their three most winnable games in conference (Colorado, Arizona State, Cal) on the road. Because of that absolutely brutal schedule, a bowl appearance in year one is far from a sure thing, in fact, I may call it unlikely.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (4-5 Pac-12)

T3.Utah

Utah has been one of the most consistent programs in the country over the past decade, with a ten year total of 86-42, and only two losing seasons, both of which were one game away from continuing with the trend. Kyle Whittingham, who has been with the Utes for 13 seasons, has turned Utah from a fun to watch group of five team to a program recruiting in the top half of the Pac-12. With a roster loaded with sophomores and juniors, this team will be a Pac-12 title contender next year. As for this year, junior QB Tyler Huntley returns after ten starts last season. The dual-threat QB threw for 2,411 yards (15-10 touchdown to interception ratio) and rushed for 537 more. Utah also has no seniors in the running back group or in the two-deep for the receiving core, which may spell trouble because of a lack of leadership this year, but will lead to an ultra-talented team in 2019.

On the defensive side of the ball, Utah ranked 3rd in the conference in rushing defense and 4th in passing defense. The defensive line takes a hit and loses Lowell Lotulelei, Filipo Mokofisi, and NFL Draft pick Kylie Fitts. Bradlee Anar (seven sacks last year) is the only returning starter, and I expect a step back in the run defense, although the secondary should be solid once again. Utah is always exciting to watch, and in the past two years have had 15 (!) games decided by one possesion. This year the schedule looks pretty manageable out of conference, but they do draw the top three from the North and will get UCLA on the road (but USC at home). Another winning season should be expected, but I wouldn’t get title hopes.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (4-5 Pac-12)

T5.Arizona State

Oh dear, Herm Edwards. Honestly, I am tired of hearing about Herm Edwards as the new coach of Arizona State, I actually don’t hate the hire as much as most (as long he doesn’t do a lot of head coaching), because it will be a massive boost to State’s recruiting. Manny Wilkins is back at quarterback after 3,720 yards passing last season and a 12-9 touchdown to interception ratio. His receiving group should be really good, as each of the top six return, although the #5 may be out for the year with an injury. This group includes potential All-Pac 12 player N’Keal Harry (1,142 yards and eight touchdowns). The running game, on the other hand, will take a big step back as the top two are both gone including fourth-round pick Kalen Ballage. Eno Benjamin is the projected starter, but he had just 142 yards as a true freshman and will need to step into a big role if the Sun Devils want to match last year’s 175 rushing yards per game mark.

On defense, the secondary will be the group to watch as three of five starters return (compared to just one in the front six) and the rest of the defense will take a step back even though I love any team that runs a 3-3-5 like the Sun Devils will try out this season. The schedule may be one of the toughest in the country, with Michigan State and @ San Diego State in the non-conference, USC and Arizona on the road, and the tough draw of getting each of the big three from the North. This may be a bowl-caliber team, but not with this schedule.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-6 Pac-12)

T5.Colorado

After Mike MacIntyre won ten games in 2016, he went back to his losing ways (10-27 in 2013-15) and went 5-7 in the 2017 season. He will try to get back to 2016 levels with a new offensive coordinator, actually two. Former Colorado star WR in the late 90s and most recently a Texas Tech receivers coach, Darrin Chiaverini will join the staff in a co-offensive coordinator role. He will share the role with Kalyton Adams, who has been a position group coach with the Buffaloes for five years. QB Steven Montez returns after throwing for nearly 3,000 yards last year and an 18-9 touchdown-interception ratio. He should only improve in his junior season. Around him are a whole lot of questions as Colorado will lose their top three receivers and their only running back with over 100 yards last year (Phillip Lindsay). I expect some regression.

The defense is a mixed bag, it returns more than the offense, but not by much. Two starters return in each position group, highlighted by NT Javier Edwards (28 tackles, 1.5 TFL), ILB Drew Lewis (94 tackles, 3.5 TFL, two sacks), and SS Evan Worthington (87 tackles, 5.5 TFL, three interceptions). The cornerback situation is the biggest question mark, as freshman Chris Miller may have to step into a starting role. The schedule shapes up pretty nicely for the Buffaloes, as they get their three toughest games in conference on the road, meaning most of their winnable games are at home, and while they probably won’t deserve it, they may make a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-6 Pac-12)

AAC East Team Previews
AAC West Team Previews

AAC Championship Game Pick: UCF over Memphis

All-AAC Team

First Team

QB – McKenzie Milton, UCF
RB – Darrell Henderson, Memphis
RB – Adrian Killins, UCF
WR – Trevon Browns, East Carolina
WR – Justin Hobbs, Tulsa
TE – Joey Magnifico, Memphis
OL – Wyatt Miller, UCF
OL – Trevon Tate, Memphis
OL – Tyler Bowling, Tulsa
OL – Marcus Norman, USF
OL – Jordan Johnson, UCF

DL – Ed Oliver, Houston
DL – Trysten Hill, UCF
DL – Marquise Copeland, Cincinnati
DL – Greg Reaves, USF
LB – Pat Jasinski, UCF
LB – Shaun Bradley, Temple
LB – Curtis Akins, Memphis
DB – Kyle Gibson, UCF
DB – Delvon Randall, Temple
DB – TJ Carter, Memphis
DB – Sean Williams, Navy

K – Matthew Wright, UCF
P – James Smith, Cincinnati

Games To Watch

9/8 – Memphis @ Navy
10/13 – UCF @ Memphis
11/1 – Temple @ UCF
11/23 – UCF @ USF
11/23 – Houston @ Memphis
12/8 – Army vs Navy

247Sports Recruiting Rankings

1. Cincinnati
2. USF
3. Tulane
4. UCF
5. Houston
6. Temple
7. SMU
8. Memphis
9. East Carolina
10. Tulsa
11. Navy
12. Connecticut

Computer Tiers

Tier 1

1) UCF

Tier 2

2) Memphis
3) USF
4) Houston

Tier 3

5) Navy
6) SMU
7) Temple
8) Cincinnati
9) Tulane
10) Tulsa

Tier 4

11) East Carolina

Tier 5

12) Connecticut

1.Memphis

Memphis was one of the most split teams in the country last season, ranking #2 in ppg and in the 100s for opponent ppg. Despite the poor defense, the Tigers were consistently ranked in the top 25 during the back half of the year and won ten games for the first time in forever. NFL talent Anthony Miller is gone, as is quarterback Riley Ferguson, but Memphis has two great options to replace Ferguson in last year’s mobile backup David Moore and Arizona State transfer Brady White. The top two backs return from last year’s group in juniors Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard, maybe the best one-two punch in the conference (over 2,000 combined yards last year!). While Miller is gone, eight of the top ten return in total as far as the receiving core goes and they add a JuCo transfer in Antonio Gibson.

The defense started a boatload of freshmen last year and really struggled, but with added experience and practically everybody returning, they should be improved. The attacking system is very high-risk and high reward, but I would expect them to dial it back as they should be more talented and won’t have to rely on the system as much. Despite the fact that I see Memphis taking a step back, a pretty easy schedule means ten wins (when you include the bowl) is certainly not out of the question. Three wins in the non-conference should be the minimum, and in conference they get UCF at home and avoid Temple, Cincinnati, and USF altogether.

Projected Regular Season Record: 9-3 (6-2 American)

2.Houston

After Houston President Renu Khator said, “We’ll fire coaches at 8 and 4” in December 2016, the pressure was on Major Applewhite in his first year with the Cougars. Applewhite didn’t go 8-4, he actually went 7-5 and now finds himself squarely on the hot seat. Trying to save his job, Applewhite has brought on a new, controversial Offensive Coordinator in Kendal Briles, who helped Lane Kiffin transform the Florida Atlantic offense practically overnight. Converted wide receiver D’Eriq King will get the start at quarterback after 1,260 yards in four starts last year (seven to two touchdown to interception ratio). The offense loses a lot around him though, including their top rusher and the top two receivers who will especially hurt.

Houston’s defensive line might be the nastiest in the entirety of the group of five. They get back Jared Carter from injury and bring in TCU transfer Isaiah Chamber at the ends, and in the middle, the Cougars will start potential #1 overall draft pick Ed Oliver (73 tackles, 5.5 sacks last season). The pass defense will need to improve after ranking 120th in opponent passing yards per game last year, but they bring back two starters and add in a former four-star recruit, Ole Miss transfer Deontay Anderson. Because UH has Arizona and Texas Tech in the nonconference and will get the rest of the top four in their division on the road, a season better than 8-4 is almost impossible, but I do expect the offense to improve.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (5-3 American)

T3.SMU

Chad Morris is now the head coach at Arkansas, but SMU brought in a solid replacement in former California head coach Sonny Dykes. Dykes has deep ties in Texas and will continue Morris’ high tempo spread offense system. Dykes brought in two new coordinators along with him in Former Arkansas State, Connecticut, and Auburn OC Rhett Lashlee and former Northern Illinois DC Kevin Kane will take the same role here, although I do not envy him as he will inherit the #118 scoring defense in the country (opponents averaged 36.7 ppg). Dykes will step into the job on day one right into a situation where he has an excellent starting quarterback in Ben Hicks (3,569 yards passing, 33-12 touchdown to interception ratio) and I expect the offense to improve.

The defense played the high-risk high reward style last season and did not find a lot of rewards. Kevin Kane did an excellent job turning around Northern Illinois on the defensive side, and with a lot of young talent, I have confidence that he will do the same here even with the added level of competition. In 2019 this team could compete for a conference title (very few seniors this year) but in 2018 a bowl should be the goal. The out of conference schedule is tough with TCU, @ Michigan, and @ North Texas, but the Mustangs get guaranteed wins against Tulane and Tulsa on the road, meaning that they will be at home for a lot of their more competitive games and should be right around the .500 mark.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (4-4 American)

T3.Navy

Navy went 7-6 last year, including a drubbing of Virginia in their bowl game. The Midshipmen were probably even better than that record indicates, as they faced a tough schedule including Florida Atlantic, Memphis, UCF, Notre Dame, Houston, and Army. Zach Abey and Malcolm Perry will compete for the starting quarterback job after they split time last year, although Perry will be an overwhelming favorite after exploding in the back half. The loser of the competition will probably still see time as either a running back or receiver, and both will fit right in to the Navy rushing style. The only returning receiver is Malcolm Perry, but assuming he starts at quarterback, the receiving group will need to rebuild, likely with Zach Abey at the helm.

The defense was pretty average last year but kept the Midshipmen from shooting themselves in the foot for the most part. However, with most of their starters departing, I think that any improvement on the status quo (26.3 ppg) would be surprising. The schedule in 2018 certainly isn’t as tough as it was last season (they avoid FAU) but Navy still gets Notre Dame and Army in the non conference and draws three of the top four from the East, including UCF on the road. A bowl game should be the expectation, and computer ratings tend to underrate the service academies for obvious reasons, but I am a lot lower on Navy than the public as a whole, and have them at 7-6.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-6 (3-5 American)

T5.Tulsa

Phillip Montgomery has had a weird tenure as head coach at Tulsa. He won six games in his first year, ten in his second year, and then fill off a cliff in 2017, going 2-10. Runningback Shamari Brooks was one of the few bright spots in what was a dreary year for the Golden Hurricane. Brooks didn’t start very much, but right when he was stepping into high gear, he got injured, and finished with 687 yards and ten touchdowns on the ground, helping to lead a Tulsa run game that ranked 14th in the country. The passing game should improve as well. Another sophomore is projected to start at quarterback in Luke Skipper, who threw for 1,141 yards last year before going down with an injury. His 3-4 touchdown to interception ratio will need to be improved on though, and with four of the top five back in the receiving group, that seems likely.

The defense was quite awful last season, ranking #121 in opponent ppg and even worse in opponent ypg (#128), but Montgomery has brought in some JUCO transfers to try and turn it around, and I would expect some regression to the mean and improvement from this D.  Tulsa really should have never gone 2-10 last season, and I am expecting some massive improvement in 2018. There are a ton of toss-up games on this schedule, and while I would not expect a bowl this year, it is certainly possible. However, with a sophomore leading at both skill positions, this team has some crazy potential for 2019 and 2020, and could be a conference title contender.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-5 American)

T5.Tulane

Tulane was so close to a bowl bid last season, as they lost four games by one possession in a 5-7 season. Head coach Willie Fritz enters his third year (9-15 combined in first two) and has recruited incredibly well thanks to the program’s location in New Orleans’ emerging recruiting hotbed. The offense will almost definitely improve from last season, as they get back dual threat quarterback Jonathan Banks (1,797 yards passing, 592 yards rushing, 19 combined touchdowns) and will add a four-star Texas Tech transfer at running back in Corey Dauphine. Most of the offensive line returns too, as well as their top three receivers and this offense might crack 30 ppg this year (27.5 last season).

The defense is an entirely different story, as the Green Wave returns pretty much nobody on that side of the ball. Tulane may have to start three underclassmen on the defensive line, including a true freshman in former Alabama commit Jeffery Johnson. They do lose an NFL caliber player in the secondary, but return two starters there and should probably stay around where they were last season in opponent passing ypg. The schedule isn’t that bad, and games @ UAB, @ Cincinnati, and vs Navy seem like the tipping points for a bowl bid. The Green Wave do avoid UCF from the East, but will get USF on the road. I think that this team will improve on offense and take a step back on defense, probably missing out on a bowl, but just barely.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-5 American)

1.UCF (Ranked #17 Nationally)

UCF returns a lot of pieces from their national championship winning team in 2017, but head coach Scott Frost is not one of those pieces. Frost is off to take his dream job as the head man in Lincoln, and UCF’s replacement for Frost is a hire in a similar vein. The new man to lead the Knights, former Missouri OC Josh Heupel, runs a similar scheme and loves the tempo that Frost popularized in his time in Orlando. This Knights offense should not miss a beat as QB McKenzie Milton returns after contending for the Heisman trophy after 4,037 yards passing (67.1% completion rate, 37-9 touchdown-interception ratio) and 613 yards rushing. After the team had the #1 scoring offense in the nation last year, they should still be one of the best in the country as not only do they return Milton but also their top four rushers and four of the top six receivers from last year’s group that racked up accolades.

The big question comes on defense as Mike Hughes and Shaq Griffin, arguably the two top players on that half of the field, are both off to the NFL. Losing your top two players from a defense that was already outside of the top 50 in opponent ppg really sucks, but it does even more so when you will have to start multiple underclassmen and install an entirely new defensive coordinator. I expect some struggles on this side of the ball. UCF may be favored in every game they play this year, but with two power-five opponents (Pitt, UNC) and FAU in the non-conference, as well as drawing Memphis and USF on the road, I do not expect another undefeated season, although making a New Year’s Six bowl is not out of the question.

Projected Regular Season Record: 10-2 (7-1 American)

2.USF

After a 10-2 season including a Birmingham Bowl victory over a power five opponent (Texas Tech), USF loses a lot of pieces. First on that list is QB Quinton Flowers. Flowers racked up 112 touchdowns and close to 12,000 yards (both stats rushing and passing combined) in his three years leading the Bulls. Also gone are their top two running backs and two all-conference caliber players on the offensive line. However, with Charlie Strong (and Willie Taggart) recruiting at an insanely high level for a group of five team over the past four years, USF has reloaded. The Bulls ranked #3 among group of five teams in recruiting for 2018, #10 in 2017 (coaching change), #6 in 2016, and #3 in 2015. Flowers’ likely replacement is Alabama transfer Blake Barnett, a very highly touted recruit who struggled to earn playing time with the Tide, although sophomore Chris Oladokun could start as he has had more experience in the system. Whoever the starter is, they will have a great group of receivers to throw to. The Bulls return two of their top three from last year’s top-50 passing attack, both of whom had over 500 yards last year. While they do still have a lot of talent and speed, losing one of the best players in program history will always be a blow.

NFL Draft selection Deadrin Senat is obviously gone, but other starters on the defensive line in Bruce Hector and Mike Love also depart, and this group will take a hit. Power five transfers will try to stop the bleeding with the additions of Brandon Boyce and Marquies Price to try and plug those holes, but I still expect some regression in their run defense stats. Two first team all-conference players depart in the linebacking core, and this defense will take almost as big of a hit as the offense, as only five starters return in total. A ten win season is probably out of reach, but so is missing a bowl, so I will expect the Bulls to be right in the middle of those two, with UCF at home making a big upset to end the year one of their main goals.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (5-3 American)

 T3.Temple

A 7-6 record in year one for Geoff Collins was a step down after back-to-back ten win seasons, but it can be expected when you lose your coach and the top passer in school history. It really was a tale of two seasons for Collins and the Owls, as they started 3-5 (with the wins being against Villanova, UMass, and ECU)). They turned it around in the second half, finishing the year on a tear (4-1), with the only loss to eventual national champion UCF. QB Frank Nutile is back after he did well when thrown into the fire and replacing one of the best players in school history, passing for 1,600 yards and 12 touchdowns in six starts and a couple appearances. Every rusher with over 100 yards last season is back, and the Owls should also benefit from a healthy offensive line after they were saddled with injuries in 2017. The bright side of those injuries is they get back five guys with starting experience due to the many opportunities their backups got last year and should improve in the run game.

The defense, on the other hand, will almost assuredly take a step back. Just one starter is back on the defensive line (Dan Archibong), as well as just one in the secondary (Delvon Randall, a first team all-conference player), although corner Linwood Crump played tremendously in a backup role as a sophomore. Rodney Williams transfers in from Syracuse, and the pass defense probably won’t take as much of a hit as the run defense. The incredible ending to last year’s season certainly will not hurt Temple in 2018, and I expect that momentum to carry them to a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-4 American)

T3.Cincinnati

Earlier I mentioned how well USF has recruited, well, since the arrival of head coach Luke Fickell on campus, the Bearcats have recruited even better (#4 in his first year, #1 in his second, most recent year among ). Because of that, expect a lot of underclassmen in the two-deep, especially on offense. This may hurt Cincy if/when they get hit with injuries, but by the time these recruiting classes get a few years to develop with playing time, they should be near the top of the AAC, making it all worth it. Hayden Moore is back at quarterback (2,562 passing yards, 20-9 touchdown to interception ratio last year), but Fickell may want to start his guy, a very highly touted recruit in redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder. Last year’s leading rusher is back in RB Gerrid Doaks (513) but last year’s #3 is also back and Fickell brings on another big recruit in Tavion Thomas. However, the offensive line is losing a ton, so it may be hard for the Bearcats to break the #100 mark that they were at last year in rushing yards per game.

The pass rush loses just one starter, returns big man Cortez Broughton (34 tackles) and adds a power five transfer (Ethan Tucky, Boston College), as well as a big get in true freshman Malik Vann. The linebacking core also loses one starter but adds Bryan Wright (DE last year). The real questions start to arise in the secondary, as the Bearcats will have to start two sophomores at corner and rely on two veteran safeties that were less than reliable last year. The offense and pass rush should make a bowl bid a reasonable goal.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-4 American)

5.East Carolina

When East Carolina made a coaching change back in late 2015, I was floored. Ruffin McNeill had one 5-7 year after winning a combined 26 games in the previous three years, and the Pirates decided to make the change. McNeill is now the assistant head coach at perennial playoff threat Oklahoma, and his replacement, Scottie Montgomery, has a 6-18 record in his two years at the helm and finds himself squarely on the hot seat. A new quarterback will lead the charge in Greenville. That man is likely to be sophomore Reid Herring, who threw just one pass attempt last year (to be fair that is more than anybody else on the team and it was a touchdown). The receiving core will also be retooled as the Pirates lose three of four, but the one returning is last year’s #1, Trevon Brown (1,069 yards, seven touchdowns).

Montgomery brought in a new defensive coordinator to try to save his job in former Jacksonville State DC (and former ECU player) David Blackwell. The Pirates ranked dead last in both opponent ppg and opponent ypg last season, so there quite literally is nowhere to go but up. If he wants to retool this D, the unit to watch will be the secondary as they will be playing a lot of young guys with potential. I’m not sure what it will take for Montgomery to save his job, but I am actually quite high on the Blackwell hire and I see him putting in a massive improvement on defense and East Carolina actually improving a game up to 4-8 as the nonconference schedule gets easier (North Carolina A&T and Old Dominion compared to FCS champ James Madison and BYU).

Projected Regular Season: 4-8 (2-6 American)

6.Connecticut

The Randy Edsall experiment went about as expected in year one for the Huskies as they went 3-9 again. Edsall may be the winningest coach in program history, but he can’t turn it all around in one season, especially with the incredible amounts of youth and inexperience that he inherits, as there is a chance that close to half of their starters and more than half of the two-deep will be underclassmen. It should be mentioned that there is a new offensive coordinator in former Chicago Bears assistant John Dunn. Dunn will oversee the development of a new quarterback in David Pindell, who is quite a project (4-6 touchdown to interception ratio last season).

The youth I mentioned is even more prevalent on the defensive side where UConn returns just 2 (!) starters from last year’s team that was already one of the worst in the country. The line returns zero starters but does get back Philippe Okounam from injury and adds talented freshman Caleb Thomas. The linebacking group will also lose all three starters, including their top tackler from last season, but sophomore Darrian Beavers is a name to watch after he flashed as a freshman. The secondary is where both of the returning starters lie, and even this group won’t be great, but Tyler Coyle is the top returning tackler on the team after he had 67 as a freshman. We may see some slight improvement in the numbers for UConn, but much more than three wins seems unlikely.

Projected Regular Season Record: 3-9 (1-7 American)

Army

With 18 wins in the past two seasons, Jeff Monken has had some unprecedented success for a head coach at Army. Ahmad Bradshaw, Monken’s quarterback for those two seasons, has graduated, and his likely replacement, Kevin Hopkins, is a relatively unknown quantity. From reports, it seems that Hopkins is a better passer than Bradshaw, but not on his level when it comes to running an option style offense. The Black Knights also lose four of five starters from the offensive line including NFL Draft selection Brett Toth. While Army always has excellent offensive line play, they probably won’t match the levels of last year’s group. However, seven of the top eight rushers return, although they do lose their #1 (Bradshaw). That group includes FB Darnell Woolfolk (812 yards, 14 touchdowns), SB Kell Walker (629 yards, six touchdowns), and FB Andy Davidson (627 yards, five touchdowns). Army rarely throws, but they return both receivers that brought in more than 50 yards last year. With the top QB, who also happens to be the top rusher, leaving, this offense may take a step back, but I don’t expect anything too drastic.

The defense returns most of their starters but loses their best guy on both the defensive line and the linebacking core. Army will almost never start underclassmen, so this is one of the more experienced defenses in the country, and with six of their top seven tacklers back, I expect the defense to improve. With two FCS opponents, and two of the worst teams in the FBS on their schedule (Liberty, San Jose State) the Black Knights have four near guaranteed wins and will have to go just 2-6 in their other eight games in order to make a bowl, although I expect them to shoot right past that goal.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4

BYU

After a 9-4 mark in year one, BYU near fell off a cliff in year two under Kalani Sitake, flipping that script and finishing 4-9 thanks to an offense that scored 20 points or fewer nine times, including five games where they were held to ten or fewer. Sitake brought on a new offensive coordinator, Jeff Grimes, the offensive line coach for LSU from 2014-17. After the running game ranked in the 100’s last year, Grimes, who was also the running game coordinator at LSU, has decided to revamp the entire thing, and with every single player with positive rushing yardage last season returning, and the addition of former Oregon State commit Zachary Katoa, he will have a lot of pieces. A (hopefully) healthy QB should also help and I expect some big improvement on this side of the ball.

After a top 50 ranking last year, this defense should be stout again as they return most of their starters from a team that gave up just over 24 points per game in 2017. The Cougars get back the fantastic DE combo of Corbin Kaufusi (67 tackles, six sacks) and Sione Takitaki (79 tackles, five sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss), the latter of which may move to a weakside linebacker role for the departing Fred Warner (who, fun fact, was my pick for the most underrated prospect of the 2018 NFL Draft Class). Warner will be a huge loss, but MLB Butch Pau’u (74 tackles) should hold down the fort, and Zayne Anderson shifts down from safety. This team should be improved, but with a tough schedule that features five power-five opponents and Boise State, the Cougars will either have to pull some upsets or run the table in their other six, including games against Northern Illinois, Utah State, and New Mexico State, to make a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8

Liberty

Liberty replaces Idaho at the FBS level to keep us at an even 130 teams, fresh off of a win @ Baylor in week one last season that put the Flames on the map. Liberty hasn’t had a losing season on the FCS level since way back in 2005, and have won eight of the last ten Big South championships, although now they will have to play with the big boys after having one of their most disappointing seasons in a while in 2017 (6-5). The passing game should at least be solid after putting up over 300 ypg last year. Starting QB Buckshot Calvert returns after 3,363 yards and 29 touchdowns last year (just six picks!) and also returning is Antonio Gandy-Golden, who put up 1,066 yards and brought in ten touchdowns at the top receiver. It should be mentioned that was at the FCS level, but it was also in just 11 games.

Liberty’s defense is quite strange, as they were one of those rare teams that actually let up more rushing yards than passing yards. The secondary should be stacked again as they bring back five of eight from the two-deep including CB Jeremy Peters (three interceptions). The front seven might be a different story as they were already quite weak last year (225 rushing ypg!) and those numbers are unlikely to improve with tougher competition in 2018. Liberty has just two power fives on the schedule and does get two FCS opponents, but I’d be shocked if this team kept their winning season streak alive.

Projected Regular Season Record: 3-9

New Mexico State

New Mexico State has made a bowl game four times in their history: 1935, 1959, 1960… and 2017. That 57-year drought ending was one of my favorite stories in college football for the 2017 season. Now, the high has come to an end as the Aggies are kicked out of the Sun Belt and are scraping together funds to stitch together an FBS program, but there are enough pieces back from last year to make another run at bowl glory. QB Tyler Rogers, the #2 all-time passer in New Mexico State history, is gone, but the Aggies bring in an interesting replacement in JUCO transfer Matthew Romero (5,489 yards, 49 touchdowns in two years), although last year’s backup, Nick Jeanty is also back and will compete for the starting job (5 career starts, 1,028 career yards, six career touchdowns, six career interceptions).

The defense is one to keep an eye on as the Aggies return practically everyone from a group that let up less than 30 points per game last season, a feat that New Mexico State hasn’t pulled off since 2003. Ten of the top eleven tacklers will return, and this group may beat that 2003 team’s number (28.4). Overall, the schedule looks to be one of the easiest in the country, with Liberty twice, UTEP, and an FCS making four wins the bare minimum. This team will only face three top-95 teams all year, in what happen to be the first three weeks (#76 Wyoming, #69 Minnesota, #84 Utah State). Going 2-3 in their remaining games (Louisiana, Texas State, New Mexico, BYU, and Georgia Southern) will get them a second straight bowl bid.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6

Notre Dame (Ranked #9 Nationally)

The second team to be revealed in my preseason top 25, and the first top ten team. Notre Dame was one of the most improved teams of 2017, going from four wins to ten and getting head coach Brian Kelly removed from the various hot seat watch lists. QB Brandon Wimbush is back after 1,870 yards passing, 803 yards rushing, and 30 combined touchdowns. Ian Book will challenge for the starting job after 456 yards in one start and a handful of other appearances (Wimbush started the other 12), but Wimbush is expected to keep his job. The top two running backs are gone as well as three of the top five pass catchers from last season, although Notre Dame always has the talent to replace. Dexter Williams had 360 yards as a backup last year and averaged 9.2 (!!!) yards per carry. The top returning pass catcher is junior Chase Claypool (402 yards), but improved quarterback play may lead to better numbers for this unit as a whole after ranking 103rd in the country last year.

Pretty much everybody is back on defense, and the unit to watch on this side of the ball is the secondary. With every starter returning from a group that was already borderline top 50, this should be a massively improved back four and could help make this the Irish’s best pass defense in over a decade. The schedule looks rather difficult, with ten power five games and five top 25 teams, but Michigan, Stanford, and Florida State are at home, although they will have to travel for USC and Virginia Tech. Because of the sticky situation at quarterback, this team hasn’t been getting a lot of title buzz, but with an easier schedule this would definitely be a playoff contender, and might still be.

Projected Regular Season Record: 10-2

UMass

This is Mark Whipple’s fifth year in this stint with the Minutemen. Last year (4-8) was technically his best yet but still not much to celebrate as UMass has gone just 12-36 in these past four seasons, averaging a 3-9 record. The stars have aligned for Whipple to save his job though, as the offense returns almost the entire two-deep from what was a very good year by UMass standards (#47 ppg, #35 ypg). QB Andrew Ford is back after maybe being the best passer on any independent team last year (2,924 yards, 22 touchdowns, just four interceptions). Every single rusher with positive yards returns as well as seven of the top eight receivers and four out of five starters from the offensive line. This will be the best offense a UMass team has seem in decades.

The secondary was really good last year (#42 in the country in opponent passing ypg) and three of four starters return from the group, including CB Isaiah Rodgers (50 tackles, 14 PBUs, three interceptions) and UConn transfer Brice McAllister will slip right in the strong safety role to replace the one departing starter. UMass has made just two bowls ever (1964, 1972) and with the best offense in a while, just two power-five opponents on the schedule, and winnable games against Liberty, Coastal Carolina, Duquesne, and Charlotte, this may be the team to finally break that drought, and with my computer calling for an average of 5.7 wins per simulation, it seems like almost a literal toss-up, but I believe that with a desperate fanbase and a coach fighting for his job, we can round that 5.7 up to 6.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6

MWC Mountain Team Previews
MWC West Team Previews

MWC Championship Game Pick: Boise State over Fresno State 

All-MWC Team

First Team

QB – Brett Rypien, Boise State
RB – Lexington Thomas, UNLV
RB – Juwan Washington, San Diego State
WR – KaeSean Johnson, Fresno State
WR – McLane Mannix, Nevada
TE – Dax Raymond, Utah State
C – Quin Ficklin, Utah State
OL – Aaron Jenkins, New Mexico
OL – Tyler Roemer, San Diego State
OL – Keith Ismael, San Diego State
OL – Ezra Cleveland, Boise State

DL – Youhanna Ghaifan, Wyoming
DL – Carl Granderson, Wyoming
DL – David Moa, Boise State
DL – Curtis Weaver, Boise State
LB – Jeffrey Allison, Fresno State
LB – Malik Reed, Nevada
LB – Jahlani Tavai, Hawaii
DB – Tyler Horton, Boise State
DB – Andrew Wingard, Wyoming
DB – Kekoa Nawahine, Boise State
DB – Tariq Thompson, San Diego State

K – Dominik Eberle, Utah State
P – Ryan Stonehouse, Colorado State

Games To Watch

8/31 – San Diego State @ Stanford
8/31 – Colorado State vs Colorado
9/15 – Fresno State @ UCLA
10/6 – Navy @ Air Force
10/6 – San Diego State @ Boise State
10/27 – Wyoming @ Colorado State
11/9 – Fresno State @ Boise State
11/17 – San Diego State @ Fresno State
11/24 – Nevada @ UNLV

247Sports Recruiting Rankings

1. Boise State
2. San Diego State
3. Nevada
4. Colorado State
5. Fresno State
6. Hawaii
7. San Jose State
8. UNLV
9. Utah State
10. Air Force
11. Wyoming
12. New Mexico

Computer Tiers

Tier 1 

1) Boise State

Tier 2

2) Fresno State
3) San Diego State

Tier 3

4) Wyoming
5) Utah State
6) Colorado State
7) New Mexico
8) UNLV
9) Nevada

Tier 4

10) Air Force
11) Hawaii

Tier 5

12) San Jose State

1.Boise State (Ranked #22 Nationally)

The first team to be revealed in my national top 25 is the Boise State Broncos! After a two-year drought, Boise State returned to their winning ways last season, going 11-3 en route to a Mountain West Championship and a Las Vegas Bowl victory over Oregon. QB Brett Rypien is back for his senior year after 2,877 yards and 16 touchdowns passing in ten starts last season, and you can only expect those numbers to increase even further in 2018 assuming he avoids injury. Two of the top three are gone from the receiving core, the only returning starter is senior AJ Richardson (494 yards last year). Fellow senior Sean Modster will need to step into a bigger role after 335 yards last year, and Cartell “CT” Thomas & Octavius Evans flashed as freshmen and will compete for the third starting job.

The Broncos possess the conference’s best defense, and maybe the best defense in all of mid-major football as they return pretty much everyone from last year’s group that ranked 21st in opponent ypg. The brilliant end combo of Curtis Weaver and Jabril Frazier is back after combining for 17 sacks last season, and the defense as a whole returns all but one player that had 30 or more tackles in 2017 (Leighton Vander Esch is the departure). I see the offense and defense improving from last year, and games @ Oklahoma State, vs Fresno State, and @ Wyoming are probably the biggest roadblocks from an undefeated season.

Projected Regular Season Record: 10-2 (7-1 MWC)

T2.Colorado State

With a 21-18 record in three years (including three trips to bowl games), Mike Bobo has done pretty well for himself in Fort Collins. A defense that was ranked 98th in the country in opponent ypg has been holding them back from breaking through, but Bobo has brought on a new coordinator on that side of the ball, former Tennessee DC John Jancek. The offense loses a lot from last year’s group that ranked 11th in the nation in ypg, including the QB. Grad transfer KJ Carta-Samuels (Washington) was signed to try and plug that hole, although I would expect some regression as a lot of the offense left with Nick Stevens. The top rusher is gone, along with half the offensive line and four of the top five receivers, chief among them Michael Gallup (1,413 yards last year). I would expect this offense to take a step back.

Jancek will switch the Rams back to a more natural 4-3 setup as opposed to his predecessor’s 3-4 scheme. I like the hire and the shift in scheme to more fit the Rams’ speedy personnel, but with most of the defense graduated, including five of the top nine tacklers, I don’t see much improvement in year one under Jancek. A tough out of conference schedule (Colorado, Arkansas, Florida) will be offset by a pretty favorable schedule in conference as the Rams get their two biggest competitors for the #2 spot, Wyoming and Utah State, both at home. This team will take a step back but should still make a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (5-3 MWC)

T2.Utah State

With a 34-32 record in five years with the Aggies, Matt Wells has been pretty successful and has had just one year where his team was not bowl eligible. This year may be his best chance at a winning record in a while, the last time the Aggies achieved that was back in 2014. The offense, which was a little better than average last season, gets back quarterback Jordan Love, who started six games as a freshman (1,631 yards, eight touchdowns). The top three receivers are all back for Love. The group is led by a senior, Ron’quavion Tarver (569 yards, seven touchdowns), but a fellow sophomore, Jordan Nathan, showed sparks as a freshman that could lead to him being a favorite target in the future for Love. This group also adds a USC transfer, Jalen Greene and should be improved.

New coordinator Keith Patterson (Formerly DC at Arizona State) has a lot of pieces to work with on a defense that will return the majority of it’s two-deep from last season. Eight of the top nine tacklers are back, including top tackler Sili Tamaivena (111 tackles, three sacks) and NG Christopher ‘Unga, qho should improve after 4.5 TFL as a freshman. The schedule is pretty favorable, with two or three winnable games in the non-conference. However, the Aggies get Boise State, Colorado State, and Wyoming all on the road, so a division crown seems quite unlikely this year, but with an impressive group of young talent, that might not be the case in 2019 when they get all three at home.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (5-3 MWC)

4.Wyoming

Wyoming actually has the second-highest rating of any team in this division, but find themselves in 4th here due to a tough in-conference schedule, which I’ll mention later. The starting quarterback is gone, and losing a guy like Josh Allen would normally kill a mid-major’s offense, but the Cowboys were already ranked 126th in the country in ypg, so there aren’t many places to go but up! Freshman Tyler Vander Waal has very big shoes to fill, but pretty much every starter other than Allen returns from this offense including all five on the offensive line, the top seven receivers, and every running back with positive yardage from last season. That running back group is headlined by Trey Woods, who had 493 yards as a freshman. So, in conclusion, despite losing a top ten draft pick, I expect Wyoming’s offense to actually improve in 2018… imagine that.

The defense, which was 9th (!) in the nation in opponent ppg last year also gets a lot back, not quite as much as the offense, but still quite a lot including their top six tacklers from last year’s group that let up over 24 points just once (Oregon). With eight starters back from that team, and 10/11 projected starters for this year being upperclassmen, I expect the defense to remain one of the best in the conference. Now, about the schedule. Wyoming is the only team in the top four in the conference to draw Fresno State, and the Cowboys draw them on the road. While I see this team improving, they may not even finish in the top half of their own division, but a bowl bid is likely again.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (4-4 MWC)

T5.New Mexico

In six years at New Mexico, Bob Davie has gone 30-45, including a 2017 embroiled in controversy with off-the-field scandals. According to an article by Sports Illustrated, Davie “physically assaulted players, obstructed a rape investigation and frequently engaged in racist comments,” for some reason, he was suspended over the summer but kept his job. Calvin Magee (formerly assistant head coach at Arizona under Rich Rodriguez) was brought in to the right the ship on offense after the Lobos were ranked 114th in ppg last year (20.7). A quarterback battle will ensue for Magee’s affection between former Tennessee player/JUCO transfer Sheriron Jones and last year’s top passer, Tevaka Tuioti (705 yards, four touchdowns, six interceptions). The running game returns last years #1, Tyrone Owens (770 yards, four touchdowns), and this offense should improve dramatically.

The defense adds plenty of JUCO transfers, but will lose four of their top six tacklers and I see the defense taking a step back in 2018. Whether Davie deserves to be fired for his off the field problems is an entirely different question, but if he doesn’t make a bowl this year, it may not matter. With a pretty easy out of conference schedule, this team will just have to win three games in conference to make that dream a reality. With Wyoming, Boise State, San Diego State, and Fresno State (their four toughest games) all at home, most of their winnable games in conference are on the road, making that quite a tough ask.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (2-6 MWC)

T5.Air Force

Air Force’s option attack was as stout as ever last year (#4 in the country in rushing ypg) but the defense gave up an abysmal 32.4 ppg and probably cost the team a bowl game as the Falcons finished 5-7. QB Arion Worthman is back after starting ten games last year (1,115 yards passing, 831 yards rushing), and the option style quarterback should improve on his 49.5% completion rate with his added experience. The top two running backs from last year are gone, and the top returner (FB Tavien Birdow) had just 395 yards last year. Also disappearing is most of the Falcons’ experienced offensive line, as just one starter is back, that would be left tackle Griffin Landrum, and I expect a similar year to last season on the offensive side of the ball as a stable quarterback situation will balance out losses elsewhere.

I cannot for the life of me find out who is taking over defensive coordinator duties for Steve Russ (now with the Carolina Panthers), but whoever that may be will have a lot to improve on as the Falcons’ defense gave up 32.4 ppg last year (#101 in the nation). The top three tacklers are gone as well, and I would say the best returning unit is the secondary, as the Falcons return two starters from a group that gave up just 171.1 passing ypg last season. I expect some mild improvement from this side of the ball, but the schedule looks pretty rough, with FAU in the non conference, a draw of @ San Diego State as a cross-divisional opponent, and potentially winnable games against Army and UNLV on the road. I do not expect a bowl this year.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (2-6 MWC)

T1.Fresno State

It isn’t hyperbole to say that year one for Jeff Tedford at Fresno State went pretty much as good as it possibly could have. The Bulldogs went from a 1-11 record in 2016 to 10-4 in 2017, including a division title, a College Football Playoff Top 25 ranking, and a Hawaii Bowl victory over Houston. QB Marcus McMaryion is back after throwing for 2,726 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. His top receiver, KaeSean Johnson, is back as well after breaking 1,000 yards last year and snagging eight touchdowns. The only loss from this group is last year’s #2, Da’Mari Scott, and Oklahoma transfer Michiah Quick will certainly be able to plug that hole. The run game should also improve this year, with the top four running backs returning from last year’s unit that averaged 155 ypg.

While the offense will take a step forward, I see the defense taking a small step back this year. The defensive line loses everybody and will have to start four new faces, meaning that group will take a massive step back this year. The other two units will take steps forward as all seven are back in the back seven including Jeffrey Allison (126 tackle) and an All-conference contender at cornerback in Anthoula “Tank” Kelly. This defense was #10 in the nation in opponent ppg last year, but because of the defensive line I see them falling down a little bit. However, this should still be the top defense in the conference. Fresno State wasn’t quite as good as their record indicated last year, so while I see the team improving, the record might not.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (6-2 MWC)

T1.San Diego State

With three straight ten-plus win seasons and three straight victories over power-five opponents (Cal, Arizona State, Stanford), San Diego State is one of the most consistent mid-major teams in the country. The tradition of a physical running style on offense has helped the Aztecs recruit, and their location in the recruiting hotbed that is California certainly doesn’t hurt either. In 2016, the star back was Donnel Pumphrey (2,113 yards), in 2017, it was Rashaad Penny (2,248 yards). This year, that guy will be junior Juwan Washington, who had 759 yards and seven touchdowns somehow behind an all-time rushing record holder. The guy is a practical lock to get first team all-conference, as he will run behind a line that returns four of five starters from a tremendous year in 2017.

The defense was #11 in the country in opponent ypg last season and #21 in the country in opponent ppg. Seven starters return from the group. The defensive line will be stout as always, the Aztecs return two starters out of three from last year’s unit that helped produce 23 sacks and allow just 136 rushing ypg despite playing two service academies. Seven of the top ten tacklers on the team are back, and this unit could improve even further this year as the offense potentially takes a step back. With Boise State and Fresno State on the road, a trip to the conference title game seems unlikely. Arizona State and Stanford should also both be improved this year after the Aztecs were able to knock them off in 2017.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (6-2 MWC)

3.UNLV

The year before head coach Tony Sanchez’s arrival in Vegas, the Rebels won two games. In his first year, he won three games, in his second year, he won four, and in his third year, he won five. The next step? A bowl bid. Dual-threat quarterback Amari Rogers is back after winning Mountain West Freshman of the Year after 1,471 yards passing and 780 yards rushing in nine starts (missed time with a concussion). The top two backs from last year are back as well in Lexington Thomas and Xavier Campbell. Thomas rushed for 1,336 yards and 17 touchdowns last year behind a tremendous offensive line group that should be good again, as the line returns three starters from a group that helped pave the way for 240.2 rushing ypg last year.

The defense was the problem last year (#93 in opponent ppg, #114 in opponent ypg). The team was 1-6 when the defense let up more points than it’s season average (28.8) and 4-1 when they were better than it. A new coordinator has been brought on to right the ship in former Florida LB coach Tim Skipper, who has a lot of experience returning with seven starters back. Overall, this team should improve and with UTEP and an FCS in the non-conference, the Rebels will just have to go .500 in conference to make a bowl this year. They should be able to get three of those at home, but beating Fresno State may be challenging so they would need to steal a road win.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-4 MWC)

4.Nevada

Year one under Jay Norvell wasn’t all bad, as an 0-5 start with an average ppg differential of -17 (including an FCS!) turned into a second half of the year where the Wolfpack went 3-4 with an average ppg differential of +2. The offense should improve in 2018 as Nevada gets back starting QB Ty Gangi (2,746 yards, 25 touchdowns in ten starts last year) as well as top running back Kelton Moore (855 yards). In fact, the Wolfpack return every rusher with even a single yard from last season, as well as five of their top seven pass catchers. That receiver group is headlined by two returning starters in Brendan O’Leary-Orange and McLane Mannix, who combined for ten touchdowns and about 1,400 yards last season when both were underclassmen. I expect massive improvement on this side of the ball as Norvell attempts to set his Air Raid scheme in place.

The defense was not good last year (#106 in opponent ppg, #120 in opponent ypg), but they should be more experienced as they get back seven starters from last year’s D, including four of five in the secondary. The front six should be good too as former end now WLB Malik Reed will captain the defense after eight sacks off the edge last year. Five of the top seven tacklers are back and this defense should improve. I am calling for a big upset win in the nonconference to kick-start the year and a 3-5 record in conference, but a bowl bid is certainly not out of the question. The problem is that this team gets the four toughest conference opponents they will have to face this year all at home, meaning most of their winnable games are on the road.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-5 MWC)

T5.Hawaii

After a solid 7-7 record in year one and a big drop off to 3-9 in year two thanks to a boatload of injuries, head coach Nick Rolovich looks to hit the reset button here for the Rainbow Warriors as they return almost nobody from last year’s team starter wise. A staggering number of underclassmen in the two-deep means that any injuries in 2018 could spell the same fate thanks to a huge lack of depth. Dual-threat sophomore QB Cole McDonald will likely get the start. McDonald has just one career passing touchdown, but star wideout John Ursua should help him get situated. Ursua led the country in yards last season before going down with an injury halfway through the year. Somehow, he still led the team in yards despite missing half the year. Outside of Ursua, this receiving group returns pretty much nobody and with their top two rushers from last year gone as well and another sophomore needing to step into a starting role at running back in Freddie Holly III, I expect a step back this year.

The Rainbow Warriors gave up 33.9 points per game last year, and if they want to improve on that at all, it will be on the backs of a tremendous linebacking core led by Jahlani Matauita (124 tackles, 5.5 sacks last year). The problem is that this group returns just one starter on the defensive line, as well as just one in the secondary. Six of the top nine tacklers are gone as well, and while I see this team actually winning more games by virtue of an easier schedule and 13 chances to do so rather than 12, this may not actually be an improved team.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-8 (2-6 MWC)

T5.San Jose State

The Spartans haven’t had a winning season since 2012 (11-2), and new head coach Brent Brennan did not have the best of starts in year one of the rebuild, going 2-11 and winning just one game against an FBS opponent all year (a 20-17 win in the final week of the season over Wyoming). With a lot of underclassmen in starting roles still, I wouldn’t expect a massive step forward in year two, but Brennan has started to try and recruit at a level that will get the Spartans playing like it is 2012 again. This team will be embroiled in a quarterback battle, and I would expect last year’s backup, junior Josh Love, to actually win the job. Both Josh Love and Montel Aaron threw more interceptions than touchdowns last year, but will hopefully improve with experience. RB Tyler Nevens will step into a starting role after 670 yards as a freshman, and the receiver group is definitely the best part of the offense as the return all of the starters and backups from last year’s group. I expect some improvement from this offense.

Every starter is gone from a secondary that almost cracked the top half of the conference in opponent passing ypg last year, and while they do get six of the front seven back, that group will need massive improvement after ranking second to last in the nation in opponent rushing ypg last year, but I guess there really is nowhere to go but up. The schedule shapes up rather nicely with a lot of winnable home games, and this team *should* win more than one game against FBS opponents this year as Brennan solidifies his scheme.

Projected Regular Season Record: 3-9 (2-6 MWC)

MAC East Team Previews
MAC West Team Previews

MAC Championship Game Pick: Toledo over Ohio

All-MAC Team

First Team

QB – Nathan Rourke, Ohio
RB – Jonathan Ward, Central Michigan
RB – AJ Ouellette, Ohio
WR – Diontae Johnson, Toledo
WR – Anthony Johnson, Buffalo
TE – Tyler Mabry, Western Michigan
OL – Max Scharping, Northern Illinois
OL – John Keenoy, Western Michigan
OL – Joe Lowery, Ohio
OL – Jimmy Leatiota, Eastern Michigan
OL – James O’Hagan, Buffalo

DL – Sutton Smith, Northern Illinois
DL – Maxx Crosby, Eastern Michigan
DL – Jeremiah Harris, Eastern Michigan
DL – Jamal Davis, Akron
LB – Ulysees Gilbert, Akron
LB – Khalil Hodge, Buffalo
LB – Jim Jones, Kent State
DB – Javon Hagan, Ohio
DB – Sam Beal, Western Michigan
DB – Kyron Brown, Akron
DB – Brody Hoying, Eastern Michigan

K – Jameson Vest, Toledo
P – Derek Adams, Kent State

Games To Watch

9/1 – Northern Illinois @ Iowa
9/8 – Western Michigan @ Michigan
9/15 – Miami @ Toledo
10/13 – Ohio @ Northern Illinois
10/25 – Toledo @ Western Michigan
11/7 – Toledo @ Northern Illinois
11/14 – Buffalo @ Ohio

247Sports Recruiting Rankings

1. Toledo
2. Western Michigan
3. Bowling Green
4. Northern Illinois
5. Kent State
6. Eastern Michigan
7. Ball State
8. Akron
9. Central Michigan
10. Ohio
11. Miami
12. Buffalo

Computer Tiers

Tier 1

1) Toledo
2) Ohio
3) Northern Illinois

Tier 2

4) Western Michigan
5) Miami
6) Bowling Green
7) Buffalo
8) Eastern Michigan
9) Central Michigan
10) Ball State
11) Akron

Tier 3

12) Kent State