Category: FOOTBALL

1.Georgia (Ranked #3 Nationally)

Last year was heartbreaking for Georgia fans, as the Bulldogs saw their national title hopes slip away on one Tua touchdown late in overtime against Alabama, but despite losing two NFL caliber running backs, an All-American G in Isaiah Wynn, and over half their defense (including linebacker of the year Roquan Smith) my computer still has this team in the top four nationally to start the year of redemption. Kirby Smart can solidify himself as one of the premier coaches in college football with another 2017 level season, the former Alabama DC transformed a school that averaged a still tremendous nine wins a year before he got there into a legit national title contender. QB Jake Fromm returns after a freshman All-American season (2,615 yards on a 62.2% passer rating, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 160.1 QB rating), although dual-threat QB Justin Fields, the #2 overall recruit in the class of 2018, will challenge him for the starting role. Assuming Fromm wins the job, he will be throwing to one of the best receiving groups in the nation, one that returns six of their top seven from last season, including Terry Godwin (639, 16.8 YPC) and converted cornerback Mecole Hardman (418, 16.7 YPC). Perhaps my favorite part of the offense, however, is running back D’Andre Swift. The Bulldogs lost two running backs in the first 35 picks of the 2018 NFL Draft, but somehow, they still have a potential All-American caliber star at the position. D’Andre Swift managed 618 yards last year as a true freshman behind two of the best backs in program history, but the number that jumps off the page is the 7.6 yards per attempt that Swift brought in, just 0.3 behind Michel, and over a full point ahead of where Chubb was last year. Behind a tremendous offensive line, I can only see him improving.

The defense loses even more, and while it should be talented again, it will be much younger this year. At linebacker, both outside guys are gone to the NFL in Lorenzo Carter and Roquan Smtih. Sophomore studs Monty Rice and Walter Grant will take over on the edge, and seniors D’Andre Walker and Natrez Patrick will slide into the other two starting roles. However, because of the lack of experience on the outside, you can expect a step back from this group. You can see a similar thing in the secondary where sophomores will have to step into starting spots for CB Aaron Davis and S Dominick Sanders, although, on the bright side, CB DeAndre Baker returned after flirting with the NFL. The schedule is pretty manageable, with games @ South Carolina, @ LSU, and vs Auburn the ones that stick out as potential losses.

Projected Regular Season Record: 11-1 (7-1 SEC)

2.South Carolina

South Carolina had one of the quietest 9-4 seasons ever last year, everybody wrote them off after a 3-2 start, and in both their big games against rivals Georgia and Clemson, the Gamecocks lost by double digits, but by the end of the year, Muschamp had USC rocking, and they won their last six games against teams that didn’t go to the college football playoff. They did it in style, scoring over 21 points, their average for 2015 & 2016, in all but one of them (@ Tennessee, 15-9). WR Deebo Samuel is an All-American contender if he can stay healthy. Deebo racked up 16.7 YPC in 2017 before going down with an injury three games in. 1st round TE Hayden Hurst does leave the receiving room, but with Samuel back from injury along with the top three wide receivers that filled in for him last year, this group could improve despite the loss.

The defense was quite excellent last year, employing a bend but don’t break style of play to great effect, allowing just 5.2 yards per play, their best mark since the 2012 team that won 11 games. However, they will have to replace key pieces such as LB Skai Moore. The Gamecocks do get sam linebacker Bryson Allen-Williams back from injury, who will try and fill the hole left by Moore’s departure. TJ Brunson returns in the middle, and I expect this defense to pick up right where it left off. The schedule isn’t too bad outside of the obvious tough one @ Clemson, but the Cocks get Georgia and Missouri, my two other highest-rated teams in the East, both at home. Another 8-4 regular season should be the expectation.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (5-3 SEC)

T3.Florida

Florida has been a school that has baffled college football fans recently. The Gators have won two of the past three SEC East championships, but it just didn’t feel like it in Gainesville, and UF decided to make a change at the top and bring in former Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen to take over for the departing Jim McElwain. This is the type of team my model would be all over last year because of all the returning starters, but after I missed with teams like Oregon, Baylor, Texas, and USF, all of whom were in similar situations, I added in a new coach variable, which tempered my CPU’s projection on the Gators. Despite that fact, the model does have the Gators rebounding back to a winning year after a 4-7 disaster last season. A lot of that is on the back of a talented run game that returns their top two rushers from last season, Malik Davis and Lamical Perine (combined ten touchdowns and over 1,000 yards). UF will also get back junior back Jordan Scarlett, who was out for all of last season (suspended). The passing game is where we run into some troubles. Feleipe Franks struggled as a freshman last year (1,438 yards on just a 54.6% completion rate, nine touchdowns, eight interceptions, 113.3 QB rating), but the receiving core does get back an interesting piece in Tyrie Cleveland (18.6 YPC last year!), they add in a couple transfers, and get back DeAndre Goolsby from injury, making this one of the best groups in the country.

On the defensive side of things, the Gators don’t return quite as many pieces, but they should still be solid. The D gave up 5.7 YPP last year, a full yard drop from the previous year (ouch) and Dan Mullen brought his defensive coordinator with him from Mississippi State, that being Todd Grantham. This defense is chock full of sophomores and juniors, many of whom only saw time as backups last year. I would worry a little about this group, but with an easier schedule, the numbers may improve a little. Because of that schedule, one of the easiest among power conference teams, I would say a bowl is a near certainty, but anything above seven wins should be considered a massive success.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (4-4 SEC)

T3.Missouri

Missouri was secretly awesome the back half of last year, ripping off six straight wins to end the regular season on a hot streak, saving head coach Barry Odom’s job in the process. The Tigers started 0-5 against FBS teams, averaging just 18 points per game, but during the six-game winning stretch, potential NFL QB Drew Lock and company nearly tripled that, averaging 51 points per game in that stretch, and letting up just 21 points per game on the defensive side, down from 42 during the losing streak. QB Drew Lock is a legit NFL prospect, but has had injury concerns in the past. Last year was his breakout, as the blue chipper racked up 3,964 yards through the air on a 57.8% completion rate, 44 touchdowns (*faints*), and just 13 interceptions on a QB rating of 165.7. He will have to deal with another new coordinator in former Tennessee HC Derek Dooley, but with pretty much everybody else returning around him, I do expect some improvement from the offense.

Defensively, the run defense should hold up again after a solid 2017 (opponents averaged just 4 yards per carry) in a group led by senior DT Terry Beckner (seven sacks last year) and senior LB Terez Hall (85 tackles, 12.5 TFL). The rest of the defensive line will need to be filled by sophomores who started a combined zero games last year, and two more sophomores with no starting experience will have to step up in the secondary, although I expect the additions of a couple grad transfers from Oregon and Texas to stop the bleeding some. Inexperience could lead to the potential for another rough first half, although this D does have the talent in place to be something special when it all gels together by the end of the year.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (4-4 SEC)

T5.Tennessee

Last year was the final straw for Tennessee head coach Butch Jones. The eight loss year was the highest number of losses the Volunteers have had ever in the 127-year history of the program, and it was their worst winning percentage (.333) in over a century when the Vols went 1-6 all the way back in 1909. Plenty of factors contributed to the big drop off after back to back nine win years, be it poor management from Jones, a boatload of underclassmen in big roles and some tough injury luck, and while I don’t expect a huge rebound in year one, Jeremy Pruitt was a smart hire to try and right the ship, division rival Georgia was having success with a former Alabama coordinator, so Tennessee decided they would give it a try. Pruitt was part of national championship-winning defenses at Alabama (2009, 2011, 2012, 2017) and Florida State (2013), the two most recent of which he was the head man. Pruitt is a great recruiter and I like his hires at OC (USC QB coach Tyson Helton) and DC (Georgia LB coach Kevin Sherrer). Expect Pruitt to try and rebuild the run game after an atrocious 2017 (117.4 rushing ypg), but with last year’s starter, John Kelly gone, he will have to rely on Ty Chandler, who showed flashes early last year (4.3 YPA as a backup). The receiving core, where they get the top two back, will be the strength of this offense, and with Stanford grad transfer Keller Christ in at QB (18-6 career touchdown to interception ratio) I expect some improvement from the offense as a whole.

The defense wasn’t good last year, but it did fine considering some injuries and some of the worst depth in the conference, but both those problems should be somewhat improved. Pruitt is obviously a defensive minded coach, so I would expect him to dedicate a lot of his time into making this into a team that can stop offenses more frequently after allowing nearly six yards per play last year. The secondary is a group my model flags as taking a big step back. The Vols lose both corners from a group that was already overachieving. Sophomore Shawn Shamburger and junior Marquill Osborne will have to step into those spots. The depth here is really concerning as a couple freshman will have to play big roles in dime and quarter packages, and they even converted last year’s #3 running back to corner to try and add some depth. The schedule isn’t ideal, with West Virginia out of conference and both Auburn and Alabama from the West. Getting back to a bowl in year one would be a miracle for Pruitt, and I’m expecting another four-win season.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (2-6 SEC)

T5.Kentucky

The ‘Cats got really lucky last year, winning seven games despite being ranked in the 90s in my model (five of the six FBS wins were by ten points or fewer, meaning there was probably a good deal of luck involved). This year may be different. With a preseason ranking of 60th, you may expect another seven-win year, but because of a much tougher schedule, and the expectation of regression to the mean after you get lucky, my model actually does not expect a bowl. In fact, during the past two years in Lexington, head coach Mark Stoops has gone an incredible 8-3 in games decided by seven points or less. Some may call that good coaching, but generally, when you are looking at just a two-year sample size, it is just luck. Benny Snell is the crown jewel of the offense, the NFL prospect rushed for 1,333 last year (5.1 YPA), and he should help carry some of the load for Oregon transfer and new starting QB Terry Wilson, the nation’s #4 JUCO QB in 2017. Tavin Richardson will have to become a true #1 receiver with the loss of Garrett Johnson, and the numbers could improve despite a new QB because of Snell’s raw talent taking some pressure off of the new face.

The defense gets almost everybody back from a group that was pretty rough last year (opponents averaged 6.2 yards per play). The main factor to watch out for with this big blue defense will be the secondary. FS Mike Edwards (97 tackles, four interceptions) made the all-conference team last year, but the passing defense as a whole still ranked second to last in the conference and will need to improve if the ‘Cats want to make it back to a bowl. The schedule is a little tougher this year, with Louisville on the road along with winnable games against Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. As I mentioned at the start, the model does not expect a bowl, although I may have oversold it a little, as it is essentially a coin flip (45%).

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (2-6 SEC)

T5.Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt has been secretly decent the past two years (11-14) after falling off of a cliff once James Franklin left for Penn State back in 2013. A lot of that has been due to a poor SEC East around them, but with the division on the rise, expect Vandy to fall back towards the floor. QB Kyle Shurmur is back (2,823 yards passing on a 57.9% completion rate, 26 touchdowns, and ten interceptions with a 137.6 QB rating in 2017). He is one of the lower end QBs in the conference but certainly still serviceable. WR Kalija Lipscomb is a name to watch in the passing attack, he averaged 16.5 YPC last year as a backup (610 yards, eight touchdowns). The run game does lose Ralph Webb, but Illinois transfer Ke’Shawn Vaughn will come in to stop the bleeding and will get to run behind a line that returns all five starters. Vaughn averaged 4.1 YPA in two years with the Fighting Illini. This should be about on the level of last year’s group despite the loss of Webb, the best rusher in program history.

The defensive situation is less ideal. The Commodores lose the majority of their starters, and while the first line should be able to take the hit, I am quite concerned about the depth. ILB Jordan Griffin is a name to watch for me, Griffin racked up 62 tackles and 7.5 TFL last year despite only starting half of the season, and I’d expect him to have a breakout senior year. The schedule isn’t too bad, although VU does get Notre Dame on the road out of conference. Ole Miss and Arkansas is about as nice of a draw as you could get from the West, but with the East improving around them and the losses on defense, I would expect a step back.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (2-6 SEC)

Big Ten East Preview
Big Ten West Preview

Big Ten Championship Game Pick: Ohio State over Wisconsin

All-Big Ten Team

QB – Trace McSorley, Penn State
RB – Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
RB – J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State
WR – Stanley Morgan, Nebraska
WR – Felton Davis, Michigan State
TE – Noah Fant, Iowa
OL – Beau Benzschawel, Wisconsin
OL – Michael Jordan, Ohio State
OL – David Edwards, Wisconsin
OL – Michael Deiter, Wisconsin
OL – Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin

DL – Nick Bosa, Ohio State
DL – Rashan Gary, Michigan
DL – Dre’Mont Jones, Ohio State
DL – Chase Winovich, Michigan
LB – Devin Bush, Michigan
LB – T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin
LB – Khaleke Hudson, Michigan
DB – D’Cota Dixon, Wisconsin
DB – Lavert Hill, Michigan
DB – David Dowell, Michigan State
DB – Jordan Fuller, Ohio State

K – Rafael Gaglianone, Wisconsin
P – Drue Chrisman, Ohio State

Games To Watch

9/1 – Michigan @ Notre Dame
9/15 – Ohio State vs TCU
9/22 – Nebraska @ Michigan
9/22 – Wisconsin @ Iowa
9/29 – Ohio State @ Penn State
10/13 – Michigan State @ Penn State
10/20 – Michigan @ Michigan State
10/27 – Wisconsin @ Northwestern
11/10 – Ohio State @ Michigan State
11/10 – Wisconsin @ Penn State
11/24 – Michigan @ Ohio State

247Sports Recruiting Rankings

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Nebraska
5. Maryland
6. Michigan State
7. Minnesota
8. Iowa
9. Wisconsin
10. Indiana
11. Purdue
12. Illinois
13. Rutgers
14. Northwestern

Computer Tiers

Tier 1

1) Ohio State

Tier 2

2) Penn State
3) Wisconsin

Tier 3

4) Michigan State
5) Michigan

Tier 4

6) Iowa
7) Northwestern

Tier 5

8) Purdue
9) Maryland
10) Nebraska
11) Indiana
12) Minnesota
13) Rutgers
14) Illinois

 

1.Ohio State (Ranked #2 Nationally)

At the time of writing, Urban Meyer’s future with the Buckeyes is still unclear after reports surfaced that Meyer had knowledge of former Buckeyes receiver coach Zach Smith’s history of domestic violence as far back as 2009. Smith was fired when a 2015 police report came to light two weeks ago. In a statement, Meyer claimed that he reported this to the university when he knew of it, but if I had to make a prediction, Urban Meyer is probably not coaching this team week one. However, according to an article from USA Today published yesterday, former Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops has emerged as the frontrunner for the job, and with all my eggs in that report’s basket, I’ve decided to not move my prediction for Ohio State this year, or even give them the “new coach” tag in my model, given that both coordinators will be staying so the players won’t have to learn new schemes. Urban Meyer is probably a top three coach in college football, but Bob Stoops was right at that level when coaching at OU, and if he unretires to come coach the Buckeyes, I wouldn’t expect much of a drop in coaching. Even if this team has to deal with a coaching change, this is still one of the most talented rosters in the nation and a very likely contender for the college football playoff. Sophomore Dwayne Haskins will slide into the starting role at QB, and I am excited to see him play. In limited time last year, Haskins was tremendous, boasting a 173.1 QB rating, something that will make him the front-runner for the Heisman if he can keep it up over the course of a full year. At running back we have another rare case where I am not worried about a sophomore starting, as JK Dobbins was tremendous as a freshman, racking up 1,403 yards and seven touchdowns on 7.2 (!!!!!!!) yards per attempt. The top six receivers return, along with two All-Big Ten caliber player on the left side of the line in Isaiah Prince and Michael Jordan. This offense will be one of the best in the nation and could crack seven yards per play, which the Buckeyes haven’t done since all the way back in 2014 when they won the national title.

Defensively I am willing to say that I am less confident that this is a “best in the country” level team, but the Buckeyes may be top ten. The NFL losses, especially Denzel Ward, Damon Webb, and Jerome Baker, will be missed, but the defensive line, despite having three players drafted by itself, may actually improve with the beast known as Nick Bosa at the helm. Bosa racked up 8.5 sacks last season, and I expect him to break double digits en route to an All-American level year. The Buckeyes will have to play TCU in Arlington and will have to face my #2 and #3 teams in conference on the road as well, but this is maybe the most talented roster in the country, and I don’t think Urban Meyer’s departure will change that.

Projected Regular Season Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten)

2.Penn State (Ranked #7 Nationally)

Anytime anybody asks me if I have a “sleeper” playoff pick, the Penn State Nittany Lions are my answer ten times out of ten. Many are picking this team to finish fourth in their own division, but I have PSU as my #7 team nationally, and much like I rooted against Miami when I told everyone they were overrated last year, I will be rooting for Penn State because of how underrated they are nationally. RB Saquon Barkley is gone, but QB Trace McSorley (3,570 yards on a 66.5% completion rate, 28 touchdowns, just ten interceptions, 153.7 QB rating) returns after being covered up by Barkley’s shadow these past few seasons, and he is probably one of the top ten returning QBs in the country. Barkley’s replacement will be junior Miles Sanders (6.2 YPA in limited time last year), and the receiving group returns three big playmakers in Juwan Johnson, DeAndre Thompkins, and Brandon Polk. The offensive line should be excellent as well, as it returns four starters including an all-conference contender at left tackle in junior Ryan Bates. The offense does lose OC Joe Moorhead (QB coach Ricky Rahne takes his job) and will take a step back, but it won’t be nearly as drastic as some will make it out to be, and this will be a top-15 offense again.

On the defensive side of things, I expect a similar type of thing, maybe a slight drop, but not anything too drastic. The back seven might be a mess, but the defensive line should be potent, and Ryan Buchholz and Shareef Miller may be one of the best pairs of ends in the nation. The rest of the defense is a pretty big question mark. WLB Koa Farmer (48 tackles, 4.5 TFL) is a name to watch. The big holes on defense, especially in the secondary, are why many are expecting the Nittany Lions to take a step back, but if you watched them closely last year, you may notice that James Franklin was one of the most frequent substituters in top-level college football, and despite not starting last year, this team returns six backups with over 20 tackles last season, most of whom will start in 2018. Another reason to join me on the Penn State bandwagon is the schedule. This team isn’t going to lose a game out of conference, and Michigan is the only tough road game they will have all year. I see double-digit wins for the third season in a row.

Projected Regular Season Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten)

3.Michigan State (Ranked #13 Nationally)

After a 3-9 disaster in 2016, Michigan State got right back to their winning ways in 2017, winning double digits games for the sixth time in an eight-year span. This team returns more than any team in the country as a whole. Let’s start with just the offense where ten starters are back including QB Brian Lewerke, his halfback, LJ Scott, five of the top six receivers, and four of five from the offensive line. This offense should take a massive step forward and should easily be in the top half of the conference, and they could go higher if head coach Mark Dantonio decides to start taking more risks.

On the defensive side of things, nine starters return from what was one of the best defenses in the Big Ten last year. DE Kenny Willekes (seven sacks), MLB Joe Bachie (100 tackles), CB Justin Layne (40 tackles, eight PBUs), and FS David Dowell (52 tackles, five interceptions) are all back just to name a few, and this could be one of the best defenses in the nation. The schedule shapes up rather nicely, as they avoid Iowa and Wisconsin from the West and will get Ohio State and Michigan both at home. I am expecting another 9-3 regular season with a shot at ten wins if the bowl game goes their way, but a conference title may not be in their reach because of a crowded East division that will contend with the SEC West for the toughest in the country.

Projected Regular Season Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)

4.Michigan (Ranked #14 Nationally)

This pick is going to stir up even more controversy than my West Virginia one, maybe I just hate teams that wear yellow and blue, but trust me, I have good reasons. First off, I need to clear something up off the top. Jim Harbaugh is not on the hot seat. Harbaugh is 28-11 in his three years in Ann Arbor, which is really solid, so please stop the “Big Ten title or he is out!” talk, ok? Alright, now on to why I’m low on Michigan. First off, the quarterback situation. Michigan’s QB situation was never good last year, and I’m not sure why people think Shea Patterson, who was decidedly alright at Ole Miss (3,139 yards, 23 touchdowns, 12 interceptions in two years), is going to change things. There is a reason Patterson transferred, and it is because his backup outplayed him against tougher competition when Patterson got hurt last year. This offense will almost certainly improve after being one of the worst among top 25 teams, but still will be around average for a Big Ten team.

On defense, boy is this team good. This is where I get the Michigan hype. Sam linebacker Khaleke Hudson was awesome last year (he lead the team in sacks and interceptions, who does that?) and MLB Devin Bush (100 tackles, five sacks) is a legit NFL prospect too, making this one of the best linebacking corps in the country as long as one of two sophomores, Devin Gil or Josh Ross, step up in the will spot. Now comes the #1 knock against this team, and it is an obvious one, the schedule. The Wolverines draw a much tougher schedule than the top three in the conference, getting both Ohio State and Michigan State on the road and drawing Wisconsin and Northwestern from the West. UM will also have to travel to Notre Dame in the non-conference. I don’t see this team making a New Year’s Six bowl, and I certainly don’t get the playoff hype.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)

T5.Indiana

Indiana football has not had a winning season since all the way back in 2007, but after back to back bowl trips and with a talented roster returning last year, 5-7 in year one under Tom Allen just felt like a disappointment. This year the ceiling feels lower, especially because of QB Richard Lagow’s departure. Sophomore Peyton Ramsey is the projected starter, he was the backup last season (started five games due to an injury to Lagow) and threw for 1,252 yards on a 65.4% completion rate, ten touchdowns, and five interceptions (127.9 QB rating), but Arizona grad transfer Brandon Dawkins will challenge for the job. The offensive line returns all five starters, including a left side that will contend for all-conference honors with junior Coy Cronk and senior Wes Martin who have combined for 56 career starts. A lot returns in the skills corps as well, and a healthy inexperienced QB is better than dealing with a decent injury-prone one like the Hoosiers had to last year, so I actually see some improvement.

On the defensive side of things, I am much less cheery. Indiana returns just three starters from last year’s fantastic group (4.9 opponent yards per play). The top three tacklers are gone, and this side of the ball will have to welcome in an entirely new linebacking corps after the group was a strength last year with Tegray Scales and Chris Covington. Playing in the East is tough because the schedule guarantees four losses, so the Hoosiers will have to sweep the non-conference or will be forced to sweep games in conference @ Rutgers, vs Maryland, vs Iowa, and vs Purdue in order to make a bowl, and I am just not quite confident enough in this defense to call for that this year, although the future is bright.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)

T5.Maryland

I really, really like Maryland this year, but the schedule is absolutely brutal. The Terps return almost everybody on offense from a team that was riddled with injuries and still managed to go 4-8. UNC transfer Caleb Henderson was projected to be the starter last year, but broke his foot, so the starter week one was Tyrell Pigrome, who threw a pick-six on his first pass, but was absolutely incredible for the game as a whole (75% completion rate, 175 yards, two touchdowns, one rushing TD, 235.8 QB rating) for about one half of football before tearing his ACL. Kasim Hill then came in and was also excellent, he ended up playing about one half of football as well (85.7% completion rate, 230 yards, two touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, zero interceptions, 209.1 QB rating) before tearing his ACL. That led the way for Max Bortenschlager to come in to start the rest of the season, who was decidedly less excellent (51.9% completion rate, 1,313 yards, ten touchdowns, five interceptions, 109.1 QB rating). When he hurt his shoulder with three weeks to go it turned into a sick joke. Walk on Ryan Brand came in and was even worse (51.1% completion rate, 204 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, 86.0 QB rating). I am not sure which one of Hill or Pigrome will start, in fact, I would guess both get reps at starter over the course of the year. New OC Matt Canada has a lot to work with in the run game as well, with all five starters on the line back, along with the top five rushers from last season, including HB Ty Johnson (6.4 YPA). I expect massive improvement from this offense.

On the defensive side of things, this team does return fewer starters, but the Terps will add transfers from Auburn (DE Byron Cowart), Illinois (LB Tre Watson), and Florida State (CB Marcus Lewis), all of whom will be expected to start and make an impact in their first year at their new team. Buck/DE Jesse Aniebonam is back from injury, and this defensive line really entices me as they also return DT Mbi Tanyi. The secondary should be pretty solid too. Darnell Savage returns at safety after three picks and 59 tackles last year, although I will worry about the man playing opposite him, sophomore FS Antwaine Richardson, who struggled at times last season. As I mentioned earlier, the schedule is really tough with Texas out of conference, and five almost-certain losses in conference play. This team deserves to go bowling but with this schedule, I just don’t see it happening.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)

7.Rutgers

Is Rutgers going to be not awful this year? My computer has the Scarlet Knights rated as my #55 power conference team (of 64), which may sound rough, but it is actually some improvement! The run game was alright last year, but will take a step back, and the passing game was awful but should take a step forward. QB Giovanni Rescugno returns after starting the last seven games last year (47% completion rate, 517 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, 95.0 QB rating), but Chris Ash may hand the reigns over to true freshman Arthur Sitkowski who was the biggest name prospect to commit to Rutgers in recent memory. Sitkowski is an early enrollee with a big arm that fits Ash’s scheme, and I project that he is starting by the end of the year.

On the defensive side, this team will continue to improve after giving up 5.7 yards per play a season ago. The defensive line is a bit of an issue as they lose both DE Kemoko Turay and NT Sebastian Joseph, who were taken in the NFL draft. If returning starters Kevin Wilkins and Jon Bateky can get some pressure, the secondary should cover the rest, as it is the best unit on this team. All four starters are back, including CB Blessuan Austin, who returns from an ACL tear after locking down offenses in 2016. I expect some big improvement from this team, but with a road game @ Kansas in the non-conference, and a tough draw where they will have to face six of the top seven teams in the conference, a bowl game just isn’t realistic.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)

 1.Wisconsin (Ranked #8 Nationally)

Wisconsin won a double-digit number of games last season for the fourth year in a row, and the 2017 season was the best in recent memory as the Badgers went 13-1 and were a touchdown away from a College Football Playoff berth. In his three years at the helm in Madison, Paul Chryst has been nothing but extraordinary, boasting a career record of 34-7 with the Badgers, and with QB Alex Hornibrook back after having an underrated 2017 (2,644 yards on a 62% completion rate, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 148.6 QB rating) this Badgers team will contend for a spot in the playoff again. The offense as a whole will just have to replace TE Troy Fumagalli, but outside of him, pretty much everybody returns on this offense including the top four rushers, the next six pass catchers after Fumagalli, and everybody on the offensive line. RB Jonathan Taylor returns and is a dark horse Heisman candidate after racking up 1,977 yards on 6.6 (!) YPA as a freshman. This offense should improve on last year’s already superb marks.

Defensively, we start to run into some issues. The Badgers had one of the best Ds in the country last year, giving up just 4.4 yards per play. However, just four starters return from last season. On the line, NT Olive Sagapolu is the only returner, leaving big holes at the ends to be filled by sophomore Isaiahh Loudermilk and junior Garrett Rand. The cornerback spot is another concern as two sophomores will have to fill in there. The one bright spot on the defense is the linebacking corps. TJ Edwards returns after an All-American season in 2017, as do seniors Ryan Connelly and Andrew Van Ginkel on either side of him. This unit is not without inexperience though, as sophomore Christian Bell will have to slide into the second outside linebacker spot after starting zero games as a freshman. The schedule is really easy out of conference, but the Badgers do draw their five toughest games in conference all on the road (ouch!) and a team even as talented as this one will not be able to go 12-0 in the regular season like they did last year.

Projected Regular Season Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten)

T2.Iowa

Iowa has gone 7-6 or 8-5 six of the past eight years (one 12 win season, one four-win season) and I see a very familiar trend repeating itself this year. QB Nate Stanley was inconsistent last year, passing at just a 56% completion rate, although his 26 touchdown to six interception ratio did impress me.  The top two pass catchers from last year, WR Nic Easley and TE Noah Fant, both return along with promising backups TJ Hockenson (blocking TE) and sophomore receiver Ihmir Smith Marsette, who will move into a starting role after 187 yards as a freshman. The run game won’t be great, which it wasn’t last year either (11th in the Big Ten in rushing ypg), but they lose NFL talent Akrum Wadley AND his backup, James Butler so it may fall even further. I expect a better passing game and worse ground game, but this offense should be pretty consistent from where they were last year.

On defense, the Hawkeyes lose All-Americans Josh Jackson and Josey Jewell, but do get back FS Brandon Snyder, who missed last year with an injury. My big concern is linebacking group, where the Hawkeyes lose not only their #1 tackler in Jewell, but also the #2 and #3 tacklers from the defense, meaning there will be three new starters on the second level. Sophomore Nick Niemann is a name to watch, his brother Ben held down a starting role at the sam linebacker spot last year. This defense will take a step back, and it will mainly be due to this giant question mark at the second level. Despite my worries on defense, Istill think this Iowa team is a near lock to make a bowl, the schedule is one of the easiest in the power five with just Penn State of the top four teams in the East, and all three non-conference games are likely wins at home. Another 8-5 year just feels right.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)

T2.Northwestern

Northwestern is always that team where you look at the top 25 rankings in early October and see that they are randomly #16 and it shocks you. The Wildcats have won ten games two of the past three years, and while I don’t see them making it there again, don’t be shocked if Northwestern, coming off a bye, playing at home, beats Michigan in week four and you look at the top 25 on October 1st and see the Wildcats just sitting there. As has been pointed out, Northwestern actually comes into the year riding the longest win streak of any power five team (eight) and they finished 19th in my end of year top 25 (which does not take into account bowls, they would have moved up even further). The Wildcats will lose Justin Jackson, who was a generational talent at running back, so QB Clayton Thorson, who is not your typical dual-threat style Northwestern quarterback, will have to step up and the passing game will have to lead the offense after taking a back seat last season.

The defense loses both safeties, and a couple pieces elsewhere, but most of this group returns, including NFL Draft prospect Paddy Fisher who will play at middle linebacker after leading the team in tackles (113) last year. As long as the safety play, especially from sophomore JR Pace, is solid, this defense should improve and could crack the fours in opponent yards per play. The schedule looks pretty tough with Notre Dame and Duke out of conference and five road games in Big Ten play. In addition to that, the Wildcats get the unfortunate draw of Michigan and Michigan State from the East, but it could be worse and this team should still make a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten)

T4.Purdue

Jeff Brohm’s first year in West Lafayette exceeded expectations and then some. The Boilermakers had not had a winning record since 2011, but Brohm pulled out a miracle and helped lead this Purdue team to seven wins, just one fewer than they had in the previous three years combined. Brohm, an offensive genius at the group of five level, will need the offense to step up if the Boilermakers want a repeat bowl appearance for the first time since 2011-2012. QB Elijah Sindelar was just alright last year, but enough pieces return around him, including every running back and four of five from the offensive line, that I expect some pretty massive improvement on offense.

Defensively, this team loses a lot and will return just four starters. Both safeties return, Markus Bailey returns at WLB after 89 tackles and seven sacks last year, and Lorenzo Neal (two sack, 3.5 TFL) will hold down the nose guard spot again, but outside of that, there are a lot of unkn0wn quantities, and you are going to see a defense that starts at least six underclassmen, including a pair of freshmen at corner and one more at the end spot. I am expecting a big step back on defense, and the schedule certainly doesn’t help. Two power fives out of conference, Ohio State and Michigan State from the East and their games against the bottom three teams in the division (their most winnable games) all on the road makes this a contender for the worst draw in the nation. This is a bowl deserving team that may not get there because of the schedule.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)

T4.Minnesota

PJ Fleck did a tremendous job building up Western Michigan, but anybody who thought the same transition would take place overnight at Minnesota was fooling themselves. Freshman Tanner Morgan is the projected starter at QB. Fleck hand picked Morgan to be his guy to lead the Golden Gophers into the future, but I am always skeptical of a freshman leading a team’s offense. However, the skill corps around him is pretty solid. The top three receivers are back (although they lose a lot of depth), and a similar thing is true at the running back spot where Rodney Smith (977 yards, 4.3 YPA) returns for his senior year but loses his backup. This is the rare case where I see a freshman QB actually improving the offense because he fits Fleck’s scheme (and teams just generally do much better in year two under a coach) but I still wouldn’t expect this offense to set the world on fire.

Minnesota looks pretty solid on defense at a glance, but again, depth may be an issue. The defensive line adds Alabama transfer OJ Smith at nose tackle and returns DE Carter Coughlin, who was fantastic last year (6.5 sacks, 5 TFL). In the secondary, a name to watch would be S Antonio Shenault, who despite some health issues still managed 65 tackles and three picks. I see this defense being pretty average again as a whole, but injuries could send it spiraling out of control. The schedule isn’t awful, and Minnesota won’t have to face any power fives out of conference (although Fresno State is really good). Games against Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa are all at home and the Gophers will need to get three of those four if they want to make a bowl in year two under Fleck.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten)

T6.Nebraska

Nebraska made the best hire of the offseason when they took former Cornhusker QB Scott Frost who turned UCF from a 0-12 team to national champions (wink) in just two years. I honestly believe Frost is a top-20 coach in the country, maybe higher, but he has very little to work with in his first year in Lincoln. Three of five starters are back on the offensive line as are the top two receivers, but the problem comes in the quarterback room where the Cornhuskers don’t return a single player that even threw a pass last year. The QB battle looks to be between a pair of freshman: Tristan Gebbia and Adrian Martinez. Both are four-star recruits, and Gebbia has shown to be the better passer of the two, but the true freshman Martinez may fit better into Frost’s scheme because of his ability to make plays with his feet, and he has the added advantage of being a Frost recruit. Whoever wins the job, I don’t actually expect a step back because of how much respect I have for Frost as an offensive-minded coach.

The defense was…. not good last year. The Cornhuskers gave up 6.3 (!) yards per play, a full .6 yards per play worse than the second-worst team in the conference, Rutgers, and almost two full yards per play behind the leaders of the conference. New defensive coordinator Erik Chinander (formerly UCF DC) doesn’t have much to work with but I do expect some improvement because of the number of starters returning and flat out progression towards the mean. With Frost at the helm, the ceiling is quite high, but Nebraska draws three of the top four from the East, and while I don’t see a bowl in year one, Michigan State at home in late November once Frost has figured out the whole QB situation just smells upset alert, doesn’t it?

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten)

T6.Illinois

There are a lot of coaches on the hot seat in 2018, but Lovie Smith’s seat may be the hottest. I don’t think a bowl is even possible, but doubling last year’s two wins would be the absolute minimum for him to even have a chance at keeping the job for another year. QB Cameron Thomas returns after starting two games last year and being pretty awful throwing the ball as a freshman (375 yards, 42% completion rate, zero touchdowns, five interceptions, 75.0 QB rating) but the reason he is likely to become the starter this year is what he was able to do on the ground, averaging 4.5 YPA but showing flashes of a true option style QB. There are plenty of sophomores around Thomas, including the top receiver, top running back, and four of five on the offensive line, making this one of the least experienced offenses in the power five. This offense will probably be the worst in the conference again, but I am expecting some improvement over the course of the next few years as the group plays together.

Defensively, this team will be better, although still won’t nearly be average and will struggle mightily against top-level Big Ten competition. The schedule is easy enough that there is a decent chance this team goes 3-0 out of conference (although will be underdogs vs USF). The Fighting Illini draw Penn State from the East and will get Maryland, Nebraska, and Rutgers, their three most winnable games in conference, all on the road, and a bowl game in year three under Lovie is certainly a stretch.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)

Big 12 Team Previews

Big 12 Championship Game Pick: Oklahoma over TCU

All-Big 12 Team

QB – Will Grier, West Virginia
RB – Rodney Anderson, Oklahoma
RB – Justice Hill, Oklahoma State
WR – David Sills V, West Virginia
WR – Denzel Mims, Baylor
TE – Chase Allen, Iowa State
OL – Dalton Risner, Kansas State
OL – Yodny Cajuste, West Virginia
OL – Ben Powers, Oklahoma
OL – Marcus Keyes, Oklahoma State
OL – Bobby Evans, Oklahoma

DL – Ben Banogu, TCU
DL – Daniel Wise, Kansas
DL – Jordan Brailford, Oklahoma State
DL – Reggie Walker, Kansas State
LB – Dakota Allen, Texas Tech
LB – Joe Dineen, Kansas
LB – David Long, West Virginia
DB – Jah’Shawn Johnson, Texas Tech
DB – Kris Boyd, Texas
DB – Brian Peavy, Iowa State
DB – Duke Shelley, Kansas State

K – Austin Seibert, Oklahoma
P – Zach Sinor, Oklahoma State

Games To Watch

9/1 – West Virginia vs Tennessee
9/8 – UCLA @ Oklahoma
9/15 – Boise State @ Oklahoma State
9/15 – Ohio State vs TCU
9/15 – USC @ Texas
9/22 – TCU @ Texas
10/6 – Texas vs Oklahoma
11/10 – Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
11/23 – Oklahoma @ West Virginia

247Sports Recruiting Rankings

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. TCU
4. Baylor
5. Oklahoma State
6. West Virginia
7. Iowa State
8. Kansas
9. Kansas State
10. Texas Tech

Computer Tiers

Tier 1

1) Oklahoma

Tier 2

2) TCU
3) Oklahoma State
4) Texas

Tier 3

5) West Virginia
6) Iowa State
7) Kansas State
8) Texas Tech

Tier 4

9) Baylor
10) Kansas

1.Oklahoma (Ranked #5 Nationally)

2018 #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield will go down among the greatest players in Oklahoma history, but even with Mayfield off to Cleveland, Lincoln Riley and company are still far and away the favorites in a Big 12 that has a logjam in the middle with no single team emerging as a potential challenger to the Sooners. Five-star Texas A&M transfer Kyler Murray was expected to be the man to replace Mayfield, but after Murray agreed to a contract with the Oakland Athletics that stated he would leave Oklahoma after this year, that has fallen into some doubt, and the more pro-style sophomore Austin Kendall made it a competition in spring camp. Because of the uncertainty at QB, I would expect the offense to revolve around running back Rodney Anderson. The junior rushed for 1,161 yards last year despite only starting the back half of the year, and he put up an incredible 6.2 YPA. The first half starter, Trey Sermon, also returns (744 yards, 6.1 YPA) and I predict the two will combine for well over 2,000 yards this year. Mayfield will clearly be the biggest hole to replace, but with the Sooners also needing to find substitutes for Mark Andrews, Dimitri Flowers, Orlando Brown, and others, I expect this offense to take a slight step back after being one of the best in the country last year.

On the positive side, the defense will probably improve a little bit with some added experience after putting out a pretty young unit on that side of the ball in 2017. There will still be some underclassmen in starting roles, but I would expect another above-average year as far as the Big 12 goes. The schedule is very interesting with a solid out of conference slate featuring Florida Atlantic, UCLA, and Army. In conference, the Sooners get both TCU and West Virginia on the road. I expect a loss at some point in Big 12 play, but this team is still a front-runner for a college football playoff bid.

Projected Regular Season Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big 12)

T2.TCU (Ranked #16 Nationally)

In the six years since joining the Big 12, TCU has gone a solid 32-22 in conference games, but if you shorten that to just the back half of the Horned Frogs’ stint as a power five team, that record shoots up to 18-9, just two games back from Oklahoma as the best team in the conference over that span. That has mainly been due to the incredible coaching of Gary Patterson, who is undoubtedly one of the best in the country. Patterson took a middling Mountain West team and has turned them into a perennial College Football Playoff darkhorse. Despite all of that, I do see TCU taking a bit of a step back this year after going 11-1 against teams not named Oklahoma last year. With Kenny Hill graduated, the quarterback spot falls to sophomore Shawn Robinson, one of the best pass throwers of the 2017 recruiting class. Robinson has the potential to be even better than Hill, but I am always weary when you start an underclassman at QB. The rest of the skill group looks solid, with the #1 rusher and receiver both back in Darius Anderson (768 yards, eight touchdowns, 6 YPA) and Jalen Reagor (576 yards, eight touchdowns, 17.5 YPC), although depth may be an issue at receiver and this offense will take a step back because of the loss at QB.

TCU’s defense (5.1 opponent yards per play) was the best in the Big 12 and was the best Patterson defense since the 2014 team that won a New Year’s Six Bowl (Peach). The defense gets a lot of depth back, although will lose some playmakers in Nick Orr, Travin Howard, and Matt Boesen. DE Ben Banogu may be the best defensive player in the conference and is certainly an All-American contender after 8.5 sacks in 2017. This defense should be the best in the conference again. All in all, I see the offense taking a step back and the defense performing about the same, and with a really tough schedule that features Ohio State out of conference, I expect the record to slide, but my computer still calls for a Big 12 title game appearance.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)

T2.Oklahoma State (Ranked #23 Nationally)

How many schools have had the exact same record for three straight years (and four of the last five)? Mike Gundy has built the Cowboys into one of the most consistent ten-win teams in the country over his 13 years in Stillwater, but OSU will be lucky to get back to that double-digit mark again this year. Gundy loses star QB Mason Rudolph and star WR James Washington, the top passer and receiver in school history, both of whom were taken by the Steelers on day two of the 2018 NFL draft. Last year’s #2 receiver, Marcell Ateman also was drafted (Raiders) and this offense loses a ton elsewhere. The new man at quarterback will be decided by a competition between two seniors, Hawaii grad transfer Dru Brown and last year’s backup Taylor Cornelius. The receiving room, despite losing the top two, does return two-500 yard pass catchers though, so whoever wins the battle should have some big targets to throw to in senior Jalen McCleskey (645 yards, 12.9 YPC) and sophomore Dillon Stoner, who started the last six games of 2017, racking up 576 yards (13.1 YPC). This offense, however, will not rely on the passing game that was ranked 1st in the nation. Instead, running back Justice Hill will lead the team after a 1st team All-Big 12 season in 2017 (1,467 yards, 5.5 YPA), and while the offense will take a pretty big step back because of the two huge losses, Hill will help stop the bleeding to an extent and this should still be a top-20 offense.

Thanks to struggles on defense over the course of Gundy’s stint in Stillwater, there is a new coordinator on defense, former Duke DC Jim Knowles. The Cowboys haven’t held opponents to under five yards per play since 2013, and that will need to change if they want to balance out the losses on offense. The secondary may be an issue, as both safeties are gone. There will be two sophomores in starting roles and three of the four backups will be freshmen. I expect the back four to get torched, but with seven starters back overall and a new face that claims to bring an “attacking mentality” to lead the group, I would call for some improvement on this side of the ball and this should be at least the best D since that 2013 squad. The schedule looks manageable, although Boise State out of conference is tricky. Oklahoma and TCU are both on the road, but they get my #3-#6 teams all at home. A conference title berth is not out of the question.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)

T4.Texas (Ranked #24 Nationally)

Texas has burned me too many times for me to go much higher than “fringe top 25 team,” but I must say, this roster looks very promising. Year one under Tom Herman was far from perfect, the offense took a step back, but the defense was superb and the Horns ended up winning seven games. The offense should improve with some added experience after playing a lot of youngsters last season, but the QB race will draw headlines again after both Sam Ehlinger (1,915 yards, 58% completion rate, 11 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 124.1 QB rating) and Shane Buechele (1,405 yards, 64% completion rate, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, 126.8 QB Rating) struggled last season. Longhorn fans will need one of the two to step up if they want a shot at making the conference title game.

The defense loses an NFL-caliber player at each level, with NT Poona Ford gone from the line, LB Malik Jefferson gone from the second level, and S DeShon Elliot gone from the secondary. The special teams unit also loses a player to the NFL in P Michael Dickson. Texas has recruited well enough that these departures won’t kill the Longhorns, but I would expect the defense to take a step back after their best year in recent memory. The schedule is quite difficult, with games vs USC and @ Maryland out of conference. As far as Big 12 play goes, UT gets just TCU at home out of my top three teams in the conference, although with games against Iowa State and West Virginia at home, they should have a winning record in the Big 12 for the second straight year.

Projected Regular Season Record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)

T4.Iowa State

Last year’s 8-5 season was the best year for Cyclone fans since 2000, and Matt Campbell and company did it in style, beating then #3 Oklahoma and then #4 TCU within the span of a month to earn their first top 25 ranking since 2005. A Liberty Bowl victory over Memphis put a perfect bow on the season, and Campbell actually decided to stay in Ames despite rumors swirling he was looking for a better job. Last year the Cyclones had great success despite a tumultuous situation at quarterback, but I would not expect lightning to strike twice, so senior Kyle Kempt will need to stay healthy. Kempt, who was injured for much of the year in 2017, returns for his sixth season with ISU. Kempt had a solid 145.9 QB rating when healthy last season, throwing for 1,787 yards on a 66.3% completion rate, 15 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Also back is 1st team All-Big 12 running back David Montgomery, who went off for 1,146 yards and 11 touchdowns (4.4 YPA). With (hopefully) better injury luck and a strong offensive line, this offense should improve.

The ISU defense was probably just behind Texas and TCU as far as Big 12 defenses go, and this Cyclones group gets back six starters, although will lose top tackler Joel Lanning. The secondary may be an issue as Iowa State loses both safeties from a group that ranked second in the conference in opponent passing yards per game. Sophomores Greg Eisworth (JUCO) and Lawrence White (one start last year) will have to step up and fill a noticeable hole. The schedule is a little tough, as they will have to travel to face Iowa in the battle for the Cyhawk Trophy. West Virginia and Kansas State are both at home, but my #2-#4 teams are on the road. This Cyclone team has a good chance to have a winning record in the conference for the second year in a row, something this school has never done since joining the Big 12.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (5-4 Big 12)

T6.West Virginia

I was much lower than most on West Virginia in 2017, and I ended up being pretty right (I had WVU at 6-6 and they finished 7-6). This year I am a lot more confident, but again I find myself lower than most with the Mountaineers, and I just don’t know what it is this time. Maybe it is the fact that Dana Holgorsen has been consistently good, but not quite great (7-6 average record the past five years) and I just don’t trust him to break that glass ceiling. Maybe it is the massive lack of depth or the fact that West Virginia relies so heavily on JUCO transfers that need to learn the playbook in one season. Whatever it is, at least Will Grier gives them a shot. Grier is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and despite dealing with injuries, he still managed to throw for 1,204 yards, ten touchdowns, and just three interceptions on a 66% completion rate and a QB rating over 160. Three of the top four are back in the receiving core, as are four out of five of last year’s starters on the O-Line, and this offense has the potential to be the best in this loaded conference.

My problems start to pile up on defense, where the Mountaineers were already pretty bad (only Baylor and Kansas were worse last year out of the Big 12 teams) and they lose a ton. Plenty of freshman and JUCOs are going to need to see the field early, and this will be one of the worst in the conference again. The one bright spot on this D is the safety spot, where Kenny Robinson returns after 46 tackles last season in just eight starts. Senior Toyous Avery will fill into the other starting safety role. The schedule is really tough. WVU gets the top and bottom two teams in the conference at home, meaning pretty much all of their “toss-up” games will be on the road. The Mountaineers also face two power fives out of conference away from home, and while this team should make a bowl, any Big 12 title talk needs to be slowed.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (4-5 Big 12)

T6.Kansas State

Bill Snyder is one of the best coaches in the country, but assuming he sticks around, even he will struggle to get this Wildcat team to bowl eligibility, a feat that Snyder has accomplished every single year since he took back control of K-State in 2009. Snyder will have to work with two new coordinators: Last year’s WR coach Andre Coleman takes over the offense and former K-State DE coach Blake Seiler and former Baylor and Tulsa DC Brian Norwood take over the defense in co-defensive coordinator roles. That will be tough for K-State to get used to, but even more important than that is figuring out their crazy QB situation. Jesse Ertz, Skylar Thompson, and Alex Delton all played meaningful time last year due to injuries and poor play, combining for 2,256 yards through the year, 1,103 on the ground, 15 touchdowns, and eight interceptions on a rough 57.8% completion rate. Ertz, the best of the three, is gone, and it will be up to Snyder to decide if he wants to hand the reigns to the better passer, Thompson, or the dual-threat, Delton. Whoever takes over, this team returns their top rusher, two of the top three receivers and the entire offensive line, so this offense could actually improve.

The defense should be about as good as they were last year. Dealing with a coordinator change is tough but a strong secondary that returns three of four starters should lead the way. CB Duke Shelley is a name to watch. Shelley racked up 56 tackles and 11 PBUs last season and should only improve as he is the new captain of the group with DJ Reed’s departure. The schedule looks pretty tough. Mississippi State out of conference is a challenge, and this team only gets four games at home in conference, but I still expect a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big 12)

8.Texas Tech

With a career record of meh (30-33), Kliff Kingsbury finds himself on the hot seat, in fact, if it wasn’t for a late-season upset @ Texas, I’m not sure Kingsbury would be in this job today. The Big 12 has the most crowded middle in power five football, so it takes a lot to stand out and out and put together an eight-win season without feeling a harsh rebound effect like Kingsbury did (eight wins in 2013, eight losses in 2014). The offense has a lot of question marks, but the entire offensive line returns (and almost nobody else). Four of the top five rushers are gone, as are five of the top six pass catchers and QB Nic Shimonek. Despite all that, it is hard to worry about a Kingsbury offense, this team will obviously take a step back, but will still be pretty good nationally. The new QB is junior McLane Carter (359 yards, 50% completion rate, two touchdowns, two interceptions as a backup last year) and while he did not look great as a sophomore, Kingsbury is one of the best QB whisperers in the nation and I have confidence in him to whip Carter into a Big 12-quality starting quarterback by September.

Defensively, TTU was… not awful last year! The Red Raiders tied with Oklahoma and Kansas State at 5.8 opponent yards per play, which was good for a three-way tie for fifth. This defense should be even better and may crack the top half, no strings attached. Imagine saying that about a Texas Tech team under Kliff Kingsbury. Almost the entire defense is back, including every single player with over 41 tackles, and all but one with 30 or more. The schedule isn’t awful, and this team should get back to a bowl if it can pull out a win in one of three big toss-up games on the schedule: vs West Virginia, @ Iowa State, or @ Kansas State.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (3-6 Big 12)

9.Baylor

I’ve been hearing a lot of Baylor bowl hype this year, and I’m sorry, but I just don’t get it. I had the Bears going 8-4 last year, and that was by far my biggest miss of the 2017 prediction cycle. I’m not about to be burned again. The Bears had so much roster turnover last year, and while the talent was there, the chemistry most certainly was not. With head coach Matt Rhule getting another year to put his scheme in place, I obviously expect some improvement, but just not a bowl trip. QB Charlie Brewer showed flashes as a freshman (1,562 yards in four starts/eight appearances, 11 touchdowns, four interceptions, 68% completion rate, 146.3 QB rating) and I think he has the potential to develop into a really good passer, but lets not put all our eggs in the “QB that had a few solid games as a freshman” basket. Despite me curbing my optimism, this offense will certainly improve.

Defensively, this group was arguably worse than Kansas last year, and the Bears let up an atrocious 6.5 yards per play. The Bears should have better depth and more experience, but the top tackler from last year, Taylor Young, does depart. Big 12 offenses will still rip this team to shreds, but I would expect a big dip in the 36 ppg this team let up last year. The schedule isn’t too tough, but a lot of the winnable games are front-loaded, so this team will need to figure everything out rather quickly. Games vs Duke, vs Kansas State, and vs Texas Tech (in Arlington) will probably all have to be wins for this team to make a bowl, and I just don’t see it happening.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)

10.Kansas

Kansas has gone an incredible 20-83 over the last nine years, including an awful last three years under head coach David Beaty where the Jayhawks have as many FBS wins as FCS losses (1). As many have pointed out, Sheahon Zenger got fired last year, and it certainly wasn’t for basketball, and Beaty is probably next, meaning he is on a very short leash. Despite all of that, this is the best roster that Kansas has had in a while, and Beaty has recruited well enough that for once you can actually say that this Jayhawk team has some depth. The quarterback situation is cloudy, junior Carter Stanley and senior Peyton Bender split time last year, and both were pretty awful, but on a positive note, this team returns running back Khalil Herbert, who was actually really good last year (5.5 YPA). The Jayhawks lose just one receiver or running back that had over 40 yards last season and are probably in the top five nationally in yards returning. I expect some massive improvement.

Defensively, this team should improve too. 11 of the top 12 tacklers are back from last season, and the Jayhawks have two playmakers in the front seven with DT Daniel Wise (seven sacks last year) and LB Joe Dineen (137 tackles, 22.5 TFL). This will probably be one of the most improved teams in the Big 12, and I have them quadrupling their wins from a season ago and probably pulling an upset at some point in Big 12 play. A bowl bid is not possible, but Beaty has built the Jawhawks far enough up that I am confident to say they will win more FBS games this year than in the last three combined. The question is, will it be enough for him to keep his job?

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (1-8 Big 12)

ACC Atlantic Team Previews
ACC Coastal Team Previews

ACC Championship Game Pick: Clemson over Miami

All-ACC Team

QB – Ryan Finley, NC State
RB – AJ Dillon, Boston College
RB – Cam Akers, Florida State
WR – Jaylen Smith, Louisville
WR -Kelvin Harmon, NC State
TE – Tommy Sweeney, Boston College
C – Ryan Anderson, Wake Forest
OL – Parker Braun, Georgia Tech
OL – Mitch Hyatt, Clemson
OL – Chris Lindstrom, Boston College
OL – Phil Haynes, Wake Forest

DL – Clelin Ferrell, Clemson
DL – Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
DL – Christian Wilkins, Clemson
DL – Austin Bryant, Clemson
LB – Joe Giles-Harris, Duke
LB – Shaq Quarterman, Miami
LB – Kendall Joseph, Clemson
DB – Mark Gibert, Duke
DB – Jaquan Johnson, Miami
DB – Michael Jackson, Miami
DB – Lukas Denis, Boston College

K – Ricky Aguayo, Florida State
P – Sterling Hofrichter, Syracuse

Games To Watch

9/3 – Virginia Tech @ Florida State
9/29 – Syracuse @ Clemson
9/29 – Florida State @ Louisville
10/6 – Florida State @ Miami
10/20 – NC State @ Clemson
10/27 – Clemson @ Florida State
11/3 – Louisville @ Clemson
11/3 – Florida State @ NC State
11/10 – Miami @ Georgia Tech
11/17 – Miami @ Virginia Tech

247Sports Recruiting Rankings

1. Clemson
2. Miami
3. Florida State
4. North Carolina
5. Virginia Tech
6. NC State
7. Louisville
8. Pittsburgh
9. Syracuse
10. Georgia Tech
11. Wake Forest
12. Duke
13. Virginia
14. Boston College

Computer Tiers

Tier 1

1) Clemson

Tier 2

2) Miami

Tier 3

3) Florida State
4) Virginia Tech

Tier 4

5) Louisville
6) NC State
7) Wake Forest
8) Boston College
9) Georgia Tech
10) Duke
11) Pittsburgh
12) North Carolina
13) Virginia
14) Syracuse

1.Clemson (Ranked #4 Nationally)

Dabo Swinney has been absolutely incredible in his ten years with the Tigers, recording a 101-30 record, with four conference titles, two college football playoff appearances and one national championship. QB Kelly Bryant is back for his senior season after 2,802 yards on 66% passing, 13 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 665 yards rushing, and 11 touchdowns on the ground. Despite leading the Tigers to the playoff in his first year as a starter, a true freshman, five star Trevor Lawrence, will challenge him for the job. Clemson also returns their top three backs from last year, with Travis Etienne (766, 13 touchdowns, 7.2 YPA last year) being the name to watch. In terms of the passing game, in regards to whoever the eventual quarterback will throw to, WR Hunter Renfrow (602 yards) will lead the charge, with sophomores Tee Higgins and Amari Rodgers (combined 468 yards, two touchdowns last year) needing to step up into bigger roles. The offensive line returns All-American LT Mitch Hyatt and All-ACC C Justin Falcinelli. Sean Pollard shifts from RT to RG and two highly touted juniors slip in to the remaining spots, Tremayne Anchrum and John Simpson. This offense will improve and should be one of the ten best in the country.

The defense is going to be freaking incredible. This defensive line is my First Team All-ACC defensive line, and I’d look out for DE Clelin Ferrell (63 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 8.5 TFL), DT Christian Wilkins (53 tackles, 8.5 TFL), and DE Austin Bryant (58 tackles, 8.5 sacks, seven TFL) to contend for All-American honors. The schedule isn’t easy, with @ Texas A&M and South Carolina out of conference, Florida State on the road, and Duke and Georgia Tech as crossover opponents from the Coastal. I do expect one loss, but this should be a playoff team.

Projected Regular Season Record: 11-1 (8-0 ACC)

2.Florida State (Ranked #20 Nationally)

Florida State may be the biggest question mark in the country. They get their quarterback back from injury, but lose their coach. The ‘Noles return pretty much everybody on offense, but lose pretty much everybody on defense. They have multiple Heisman Trophy contenders, but face one of the toughest schedules in the nation. Willie Taggart is going to have a very interesting first season in Tallahassee, and that all starts with the quarterback battle. When Deondre Francois (3,350 yards on a 59% completion rate, 20 touchdowns, seven picks in 2016) went down with an injury in week one, then-freshman James Blackman was thrown into the fire, and the results were inconclusive (2,230 yards on a 58% completion rate, 19 touchdowns, 11 interceptions). I expect Francois, an NFL Draft prospect and Heisman contender, to get his job back, but crazier things have happened. Whoever wins the job will be throwing to a great group of receivers despite two FSU wideouts being drafted last year. 2017’s #1 returns (Nyqwan Murray, 604 yards and four touchdowns), as well as a former top-rated recruit in George Campbell, who has been injured the past two years. The running back group will be one of the best in the country with the top three back, including freshman sensation Cam Akers (1,024 rushing yards, 5.3 YPC) and rising senior Jacques Patrick (748 yards, 5.6 YPC). I expect this to be one of the most improved offenses in the country.

On the defensive side of the ball I am much less confident. More than half of last year’s group of starters is gone after leading the ‘Noles to be top-five in the conference in both PPG and YPG. Underclassmen will need to step up with six projected starters expected to be either freshmen or sophomores. This defense will take a step back in 2018, but the added experience for these young players will pay dividends down the road. As I mentioned, the schedule is quite rough, with Virginia Tech as their crossover opponent from the Coastal and getting the rotational @ Notre Dame game this year. Clemson is at home, but both Louisville and NC State will be on the road as far as the hunt for the Atlantic crown goes. Despite the rough schedule, this team has a good shot at improving on last year’s poor performance.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (5-3 ACC)

T3.Louisville

Louisville has gone 34-18 in the four years since Bobby Petrino returned to Kentucky, however, this may be the toughest year yet for Petrino to lead the Cardinals to eight wins, as Lamar Jackson, the #1 rusher in Louisville history (and quite possibly the best player period) is off to Baltimore so he can play on Sundays. His replacement is likely to be sophomore Puma Pass, whose birth name is Jawon. Pass threw for 238 yards on a 70% completion rate, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions as Jackson’s backup. The top three receivers are back as well: Jaylen Smith, Seth Dawkins, and Dez Fitzpatrick. Those three combined for 2,321 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15.8 YPC in 2017.

The offense will take a step back, although they will still be fine, but the defense will be pretty rough. Bobby Petrino hired yet another new defensive coordinator in former Notre Dame, Auburn, Georgia, and Falcons DC Brian VanGorder. VanGorder does not have much to work with, as just a few starters return from a defense that was already average at best. The secondary returns just 12 combined starts from last year, but adds Oklahoma transfer PJ Mbanasor and JUCO transfer Marlon Character. Just one player that started more than seven games last year is back on the entire defense, that would be MLB Dorian Etheridge (83 tackles as a freshman). This team will take a pretty massive step back, but the schedule is fairly light with NC State and Florida State both at home and this team should still make a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (4-4 ACC)

T3.NC State

Dave Doeren’s five years in Raleigh have been up and down, but with a 34-30 record while with the Wolfpack, he earned himself a contract extension, mainly thanks to a solid 9-4 2017 when State floated in and out of the top 25 for the back half of the year. Doeren has helped produce a lot of NFL talent, and on the good side, that helps recruiting, but on the bad side, it means players are more likely to leave early, and with seven (!) NC State players taken in the 2018 Draft, Doeren will have to reload quickly if he wants to keep his streak of four winning seasons going. The offense should be fire again after ranking 4th in the ACC in both PPG and YPG. QB Ryan Finley is back for his senior year, and is probably the best power five quarterback you have never heard of (3,518 yards on a 65% completion rate last year). The receiving core is one of the best in the conference as four of the top five are back from last season, including the upperclassmen trio of Jakobi Meyers, Stephen Louis, and Kelvin Harmon (2,327 combined yards, 11 combined touchdowns) that will torture ACC defenses all season long.

The defensive side of the ball is where we run into trouble. NC State was about average for an ACC team in both PPG and YPG last year, and that was when they had four top-130 NFL draft picks on the defensive line, including Bradley Chubb. DE Darian Robinson somehow managed to pick up multiple sacks last season stuck as a backup behind those four, so I would keep an eye on him, but this is still clearly the biggest question mark on the team and will regress. The back seven doesn’t hold up well either, with just three returning starters combined between the group. State returns just two of their top nine tacklers from last season, and while the offense will take a step forward, the defense will take an even bigger step back. The good news is that the schedule isn’t too bad, with their toughest out of conference game (West Virginia) at home, and the easiest possible draw from the Coastal (home vs Virginia). This team will be in a lot of close games and there isn’t much separating another nine win year from a 5-7 disappointment.

Projected Regular Season Record: 7-5 (4-4 ACC)

T5.Wake Forest

Dave Clawson is one of the most underrated coaches in the nation. In just three years, the former Bowling Green head coach turned the Demon Deacons from 3-9 to 8-5, and for the first time in forever, Wake is recruiting at a level that rivals their rival, Duke. I don’t see eight wins again in 2018, but a bowl game is definitely possible. The main reason that I’m not crazy optimistic on Wake’s chances to shock the world again is that QB John Wolford (3,192 yards, 63.9% completion rate, 29 touchdowns, six interceptions, 158 passer rating), the #3 passer in school history, has graduated. Wolford is likely to be replaced by junior Kendall Hinton (399 yards, 57.4% completion rate, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, 156.8 passer rating, 190 yards rushing) who is a dual threat type of guy with a big arm, although he will be suspended for the first three games of the year, when Sophomore Jamie Newman may have to start. Newman threw just four passes last season, completing two (combined eight yards), with one incompletion and one interception. Around the QBs will be a skills group that returns practically everybody, including the top two receivers and the #1 half back, Matt Colburn (904 yards, seven touchdowns, 5.4 YPA). A name to watch on the outside will be Greg Dortch, who torched defenses in the slot last year for nine touchdowns and 722 yards (13.6 YPC).

On the defensive side of the ball I am a little less optimistic. The secondary returns three starters, but it is actually the one I am most worried about. The Demon Deacons will lose NFL Draft pick Jessie Bates from a group that already ranked last in the ACC in opponent passing yards per game. The defense’s top two tacklers returning are both defensive backs, but that is more of a problem that they are allowing so many tackles to be able to be made in the secondary. Overall, the offense and defense should both be about the same as last year, maybe a tad worse, but a tough schedule where the Deacs draw Notre Dame and flat out regression to the mean means they will take a pretty big step back.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (3-5 ACC)

T5.Boston College

Boston College’s offense has been laughed at for years (293 ypg in 2016, 276 ypg in 2015), and Steve Addazio found himself on the hot seat for it, but in 2017, the Golden Eagles turned it around, and actually put together a solid year on the offensive side of the ball (387 ypg) en route to a 7-6 season that took them to the Pinstripe Bowl. The key to success on offense for BC ended up being the running game. AJ Dillon went off for 1,589 yards on the ground, leading the team to become a top 25 rushing offense nationally. That is as a freshman, so with the extra year of experience for Dillon, and almost everybody returning around him, the only direction I can see this offense going is up. At quarterback, BC returns another sophomore, Anthony Brown. Brown threw for 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season as a freshman, and those numbers will need to improve if he wants to hold on to the starting job for four years.

The defense on the other hand, loses about half of it’s starters from what was still the better half of the team last year. As for returning guys, I would keep an eye on DE Zach Allen (100 tackles, 9.5 TFL, six sacks) and FS Lukas Denis (83 tackles, seven interceptions). This team should make a bowl again this year despite a pretty tough stretch in the middle of the year where Addazio and company will face my six highest rated teams in the conference (NC State, Louisville, Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Florida State) all back-to-back. I expect that the Eagles will improve but will probably win six or seven games again depending on the bowl result.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (3-5 ACC)

7.Syracuse

Dino Babers’ first two years at Syracuse have been disappointing to say the least (‘Cuse went 4-8 both years). Last year especially so as the Orange started the year 4-3 and choked away a bowl bid, losing five straight to end the year. Senior QB Eric Dungey is back after a productive 2017 where he passed for around 1,300 yards in seven starts. Because Dungey is seemingly always injured, it seems like it would be a good idea to mention the projected backup: highly rated freshman Tommy DeVito. The receiving core loses it’s top two and will have to rebuild with junior Devin Butler as the star (327 yards, one touchdown last year). On the positive side, the entire running back group returns, and while I expect a running back by committee approach, I would predict that senior Dontae Strickland (482 yards, injured for part of last year) will distinguish himself from the pack.

On the defensive side of the ball, I have good things to say about both the defensive line and the secondary. Three of four are back from the line, including DT Chris Slayton (8.5 TFL) and DE Alton Robinson (30 tackles, five sacks as a freshman). As far as the defensive backfield goes, the Orange get three of four back (but will lose some key backups) and I expect some slight improvement. Syracuse would fit well in the Coastal where nearly every team is a question mark, but this is a squad that could either make a bowl or could lead to Babers getting canned. If ‘Cuse does want to go bowling, picking up wins against Western Michigan, Wagner, and Connecticut in the non conference is key.

Projected Regular Season Record: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)

1.Miami (Ranked #11 Nationally)

Miami’s 2017 was a roller coaster ride for ‘Canes fans. After starting 10-0, Mark Richt’s team faltered down the stretch, losing their last three games by a combined 55 points. QB Malik Rosier returns for his senior year (3,120 yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 54% completion rate), although he will be challenged in fall camp by freshman N’Kosi Perry. Last year’s starter at running back, Mark Walton is off to the NFL, but Travis Homer returns after 5.9 YPA (966 yards) last season after Walton went down with an injury, and the ‘Canes add speedy freshmen Lorenzo Lingard and Robert Burns. The top two are gone from the receiving core, but pretty much everybody else is back, including Ahmmon Richards, who averaged 18.3 YPC and managed to rack up 439 yards despite being injured for half of the year. Also back is Jeff Thomas, who averaged 22 YPC as a true freshman.

Maybe the #1 thing most people will remember about 2017 Miami would be the turnover chain, as the ‘Canes had a +13 turnover margin, the 5th best in the country. Seven starters return from the defense, but a key piece is gone as three of four are off to the NFL from the defensive line that caused the pressure that helped force those turnovers. DT RJ McIntosh, DE Chad Thomas, and DT Kendrick Norton all now will be playing on Sundays, and I would expect that turnover margin to regress to the mean. On the positive side of things, Miami has one of the easiest schedules in the power five, and should be favored in just about every single game. Florida State and Duke are at home, and the toughest game on the schedule would either be the Week 1 neutral site matchup with LSU or the road game in Week 12 @ Virginia Tech.

Projected Regular Season Record: 10-2 (7-1 ACC)

2.Virginia Tech (Ranked #21 Nationally)

The offseason went about as awfully as it possibly could have for Virginia Tech. Between Bud Foster’s #2 leaving, injuries, academic suspensions, legal issues, and more, this team with top-20 potential now enters the year under a cloud of doubt. QB Josh Jackson, who was rumored to be suspended for the year at points in the past few months, will return and is now a sophomore. While he wasn’t great last year, his 2,991 yards on a 60% completion rate and 20-9 touchdown to interception was solid for a freshman, and he should only improve in his sophomore season. Overall, this offense should get better. The defensive side of the ball on the other hand, is a different story.

Bud Foster is quite possibly the greatest coordinator of all time, but even he may struggle to work with this defense, which only returns five starters and lost even more players over the course of the offseason. Over half of the two-deep on defense will be made up of underclassmen needing to step into big roles. The linebacking core loses Tremaine Edmunds to the NFL and five of six from the two-deep overall, making it a huge question mark. The secondary looks almost as sketchy, as Greg Stroman, Terrell Edmunds, and more are gone, and similarly to the linebacking core, just one starter is back. While the line will be solid again, the back seven will take a massive step back. As for the schedule, Tech starts the season off with a bang @ Florida State, but then should cruise in their next three games before getting back into ACC play @ Duke. The Hokies’ two toughest games (Notre Dame, Miami) are at home, and while the offseason has been tumultuous, the Hokies will definitely make a bowl, and I wouldn’t kiss their chances of an ACC Title Game appearance goodbye.

Projected Regular Season Record: 9-3 (5-3 ACC)

3.Duke

Duke had a very up and down 2017, starting the year 4-0, falling to 4-6, and then rallying to end the season with wins against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest to send themselves to a bowl. David Cutcliffe was able to do all that with a very young core group, including a sophomore at quarterback, Daniel Jones. Jones, now a junior, was banged up at times last season but was still able to put up 2,691 yards passing (and 518 rushing). Jones will be joined in the backfield by sophomore Brittain Brown, who rushed for 701 yards last year as a back up to the now departed Shaun Wilson. The big question mark on this offense is clearly the line, as just two starters return from the group. A name to keep an eye on will be highly touted sophomore Rakavius Chambers, who played in all 13 games as a backup last season.

The defense returns a lot, but one thing it doesn’t return is the coordinator. Positional coaches Ben Albert (DL) and Matt Guerrieri (DB) have been promoted to co-defensive coordinators to fill in that hole. The secondary has the potential to be one of the best in the conference. CB Mark Gilbert returns after 15 PBUs and six interceptions last year. Both safeties return as well, including senior Jeremy McDuffie (58 tackles, three interceptions). The schedule is pretty rough, with two power fives on the road out of conference (Baylor and Northwestern), and the toughest possible draw you could get from the Atlantic in @ Clemson. A bowl game should still be likely, but a tough schedule will keep this team from reaching their full potential in terms of record.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (4-4 ACC)

T4.Pittsburgh

2017 was a really weird year for Pitt. The Panthers started the year by nearly being upset by Youngstown State (Head Coach Pat Narduzzi’s alma mater), then went 1-5 in their next six. After that, somebody lit a fire under Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi went to Duke and won, then beat Virginia, choked away a lead against North Carolina, came within six of Virginia Tech as 15 point underdogs, and then beat then-undefeated Miami to end the season. QB Kenny Pickett started one game as a freshman (the Miami game) and pulled one of the biggest upsets of the year. With that confidence booster under his belt and another year of experience, Pickett will only improve in 2018. At running back will be the returning #1 man, Darrin Hall (628 yards, nine touchdowns in seven starts) and despite just four starters returning, I see this offense improving.

The defense was really young last season, and while they still are on the younger side, the group will get five seniors in starting roles. Almost everybody is back from a defense that improved last year, although I am a little bit worried about the secondary, as just one player that started most of last season is back. A freshman, Paris Ford, may have to fill into the #2 corner spot, and while the defense will improve, I’m not so confident about the defensive back group specifically. The schedule is pretty rough, with Notre Dame and Penn State out of conference and winnable games against North Carolina and Virginia both on the road.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)

T4.Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has been pretty volatile under Paul Johnson. Since Johnson took over in 2008, Tech has gone 76-54, but that includes a 3-9 season in 2015 as well as an 11-3 season back in 2014. The Paul Johnson option style offense is always pretty consistent, what has fluctuated is the defense, and because of that, Johnson decided to bring in former Appalachian State Defensive Coordinator Nate Woody to fill the same role here in Atlanta. On the offensive side, QB TaQuon Marshall was very inconsistent last year, throwing for 927 yards (37% completion rate, 10 touchdowns, five interceptions) and rushing for 1,146 more (4.6 YPC). I remember watching the Tennessee game last year in week one where Marshall helped lead the Jackets to over 500 yards rushing as a team and thinking he was incredible but also seeing him struggle when Tech traveled to Death Valley and got mauled by Clemson. With Marshall now a senior, and most of the offense returning around him, this team should get back past 30 ppg after falling short each of the last three seasons.

As I previously mentioned, Nate Woody will take over the defense for Paul Johnson, and he is likely to implement his 3-4 scheme that worked so well with the Mountaineers during his tenure in Boone. Eight of the top 12 tacklers are gone from this defense, so it has it’s fair share of young talent, with somewhere between two and four underclassmen projected to take on starting roles and start the development process early. All in all, I expect some big improvement from the offense and maybe a little step back from the defense, and with an out of conference schedule that includes just one power five opponent (I think this team can beat USF), I expect a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 6-6 (3-5 ACC)

T4.North Carolina

Everybody expected North Carolina to take a step back last season. Mitch Trubisky was gone (as were a lot of pieces from the offense). The eventual man to replace Trubisky ended up being Chazz Surratt, who started seven games for the Heels as a freshman, throwing for 1,342 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 59% completion rate. Junior Nathan Elliot also returns and will compete for the starting job. Elliot started just three games last year (925 yards, ten touchdowns, five interceptions, 51% completion rate) and will have an outside shot of earning the starting spot. The entire running back group returns, including last year’s leader, Jordon Brown (613 yards, 4.4 YPA) and freshman sensation Michael Carter (559 yards, 5.8 YPA). The receiving core should be in the top half of the conference as the #1 guy is back in Anthony Ratliff-Williams (630 yards, 18.0 YPC) and while the #2 and #3 guys are gone, they combined for just around 600 yards last season, and because of a ton of injuries, plenty of Tar Heel receivers earned playing time and experience.

The defense dealt with a lot of injuries in 2017, but this group will return a lot of pieces, especially on the defensive line where they return seven of eight from the two-deep, including senior DE Malik Carney (57 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 6.5 TFL). Three starters also return in the secondary after combining for over 150 tackles last season, although the linebacking group may be a question mark as they lose both of the outside guys. This is the quintessential toss-up bowl team. The non-conference features games @ Cal and vs UCF, but in-conference the Tar Heels draw Syracuse as their rotational opponent from the Atlantic. My computer calls for about a 40% chance of a trip bowling, but I may be a little higher.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (3-5 ACC)

7.Virginia

Virginia went 6-7 last season, making a bowl, but to be fair, the Cavs didn’t really look like a bowl team, especially on offense, placing 107th in the country and last in the ACC in both yards per game and points per game. Kurt Benkert was wildly inconsistent, and JUCO transfer (formerly Arizona State) Bryce Perkins will be a much better scheme fir for the spread QB role that Bronco Mendenhall prefers out of quarterbacks as opposed to Benkert’s more pro-style approach. Perkins will have an interesting group of receivers to throw to. Olamide Zaccheaus (895 yards, five touchdowns) was one of the few bright spots on the offense and he will be joined by a pair of juniors in last year’s #4 and #5 wide receivers: Joe Reed (244) and Hasise Dubois (120). Tight End Evan Butts also returns after 266 last year. The run game was particularly atrocious in 2017, ranking 128th in the country and their #2 and #3 rushers were receivers Reed and Zaccheaus. Perhaps Jordan Ellis (3.9 YPC, 836 yards, six touchdowns) will start again, but I would consider making the switch to PK Kier who is both fast and has good size, but only totaled six carries as a freshman last year.

Defensively, Virginia returns pretty much everybody except for their three NFL Draft Picks: Andrew Brown, Micah Kiser, and Quin Blanding. The defensive line may need some work, as it also loses the end that was opposite of Brown, Juwan Moore, however, the addition of Ohio State transfer Dylan Thompson will help stop the bleeding. The secondary will be deadly again after being ranked 7th in the nation in opponent passing yards per game last year, as Blanding is the only loss from the two-deep. The schedule looks rough, and the ‘Hoos are favored in three games and will be slight underdogs in two more, meaning UVA will need to run that table and score a sizable upset, likely @ Indiana or vs Louisville, to make a bowl.

Projected Regular Season Record: 5-7 (2-6 ACC)

Pac-12 North Team Previews
Pac-12 South Team Previews

Pac-12 Championship Game Pick: Washington over USC

All-Pac-12 Team

First Team

QB – Khalil Tate, Arizona
RB – Bryce Love, Stanford
RB – Myles Gaskin, Washington
WR – N’Keal Harry, Arizona State
WR – Tyler Vaughns, USC
TE – Kaden Smith, Stanford
C – Toa Lobendahn, USC
OL – Nate Herbig, Stanford
OL – Trey Adams, Washington
OL – Kaleb McGary, Washington
OL – Walker Little, Stanford

DL – Greg Gaines, Washington
DL – Jalen Jelks, Oregon
DL – Christian Rector, USC
DL – Bradlee Anae, Utah
LB – Cameron Smith, USC
LB – Troy Dye, Oregon
LB –  Ben Burr-Kirven, Washington
DB – Taylor Rapp, Washington
DB – Iman Marshall, USC
DB – Marvell Tell, USC
DB – Julian Blackmon, Utah

K – Matt Gay, Utah
P – Mitch Wishnowsky, Utah

Games To Watch

9/1 – Washington vs Auburn
9/8 – Michigan State vs Arizona State
9/8 – UCLA @ Oklahoma
9/8 – USC @ Stanford
9/22 – Stanford @ Oregon
10/13 – Washington @ Oregon
11/3 – UCLA @ Oregon
11/3 – Stanford @ Washington
11/17 – USC @ UCLA
11/23 – Oregon @ Oregon State
11/23 – Washington @ Washington State
11/24 – Arizona State @ Arizona

247Sports Recruiting Rankings

1. USC
2. Washington
3. Oregon
4. UCLA
5. Utah
6. Arizona State
7. Stanford
8. California
9. Washington State
10. Colorado
11. Arizona
12. Oregon State

Computer Tiers

Tier 1

1) Washington

Tier 2

2) USC

Tier 3

3) Stanford

Tier 4

4) Oregon
5) Utah
6) Arizona
7) UCLA
8) Washington State
9) Arizona State
10) California
11) Colorado

Tier 5

12) Oregon State