Category: FOOTBALL

Rank	Team	Conf	Change	YTD CHANGE
1	Clemson	ACC	1	1
2	Alabama	SEC	-1	-1
3	Georgia	SEC	0	0
4	Florida	SEC	1	1
5	Auburn	SEC	3	3
6	Notre Dame	ACC	4	4
7	Texas A&M	SEC	-1	-1
8	North Carolina	ACC	3	4
9	Miami (FL)	ACC	8	13
10	Oklahoma	Big 12	-6	-6
11	Texas	Big 12	-2	-2
12	Central Florida	AAC	0	5
13	Kentucky	SEC	5	7
14	Virginia Tech	ACC	-1	-1
15	Mississippi State	SEC	17	17
16	Tennessee	SEC	-1	0
17	Louisiana State	SEC	-10	-10
18	Iowa State	Big 12	3	-3
19	Cincinnati	AAC	-5	-5
20	Memphis	AAC	-1	-1
21	Mississippi	SEC	1	3
22	Oklahoma State	Big 12	-6	-11
23	Pittsburgh	ACC	1	2
24	Brigham Young	Ind	6	16
25	South Carolina	SEC	4	5
26	Louisville	ACC	-3	-8
27	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	8	14
28	West Virginia	Big 12	3	6
29	Virginia	ACC	-2	-1
30	Baylor	Big 12	-10	-7
31	Kansas State	Big 12	10	-2
32	Texas Christian	Big 12	-7	-6
33	Wake Forest	ACC	1	2
34	Missouri	SEC	4	2
35	Florida State	ACC	-9	-14
36	Marshall	CUSA	7	14
37	Houston	AAC	3	0
38	North Carolina State	ACC	4	0
39	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	5	16
40	Georgia Tech	ACC	-3	5
41	Texas Tech	Big 12	4	-2
42	Syracuse	ACC	4	6
43	Southern Methodist	AAC	-4	-12
44	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-11	-17
45	Army	Ind	9	17
46	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-18	-13
47	Tulsa	AAC	0	10
48	Boston College	ACC	-12	-6
49	Tulane	AAC	4	-2
50	Temple	AAC	-2	-1
51	Navy	AAC	-2	-8
52	Arkansas	SEC	-1	-1
53	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-1	-1
54	Vanderbilt	SEC	8	7
55	Duke	ACC	-5	-11
56	Texas State	Sun Belt	14	19
57	East Carolina	AAC	3	3
58	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	10	0
59	Georgia State	Sun Belt	5	5
60	Charlotte	CUSA	-3	-4
61	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-3	11
62	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-7	-16
63	Troy	Sun Belt	-4	2
64	South Florida	AAC	-1	-5
65	Florida International	CUSA	4	3
66	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	0	3
67	Liberty	Ind	-2	3
68	Rice	CUSA	-1	-2
69	Kansas	Big 12	2	-2
70	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-15	-17
71	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9	-17
72	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	2	-9
73	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	3	3
74	North Texas	CUSA	-2	-1
75	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-2	-4
76	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-1	-2

The SEC will kick off their season in week four in a slate highlighted by #23 Kentucky @ #8 Auburn, in a chance to see Bo Nix and the Tigers under new OC Chad Morris. Also on the slate:

• #24 Louisville looks to recover from a disastrous defensive performance @ #21 Pitt
• Lane Kiffin debuts as the coach of Ole Miss hosting #5 Florida
• Iowa State, upset by Louisiana, and #15 Oklahoma State, almost upset by Tulsa, look to put their seasons back on the right path against TCU and West Virginia, respectively
• Defending national champions #6 LSU open their year hosting Mississippi State in the SEC debut for Mike Leach
• #14 Cincinnati looks to claim the status of AAC frontrunners hosting #22 Army
• Will Muschamp, on the hot seat, looks to secure a big win at home against the hyped #16 Tennessee Volunteers
• #12 Miami gets the College Gameday/ABC Primetime game for the second week in a row, as the red hot ‘Canes host a Mike Norvell-less Florida State team flailing following a week two loss to Georgia Tech

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 38-11 (78%)
ATS Best Bets: 10-3 (+6.1 units)

Best Bets

UAB (-6) @ South Alabama – 7:30 PM ET, ESPN (Thursday)
Charlotte (+2.5) vs Georgia State – 12 PM ET, ESPNU CANCELLED
Mississippi State (+18.5) @ #6 LSU – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
#8 Texas (-16) @ Texas Tech – 3:30 PM ET, FOX
#14 Cincinnati (-11.5) vs #22 Army – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Virginia (-5.5) vs Duke – 4 PM ET, ACC Network
#20 Virginia Tech (-7) vs NC State – 8 PM ET, ACC Network

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Thursday, September 24th

UAB (1-1) @ South Alabama (1-1)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: UAB -6

Week four kicks off on Thursday night with Conference USA favorites UAB taking on a team that has outplayed their expectations so far, the South Alabama Jaguars. I said coming into the year that there is potential on this USA team, and they’ve shown it even sooner than I would’ve expected, but six points is way too short of a line here. UAB may lose QB Tyler Johnston III to injury, but backup Bryson Lucero has been good in his limited opportunities, and the UAB defense, which was top-25 in the nation last year, should hold the Jaguar offense to under 20 points in the win.

CSD Pick: UAB 32, South Alabama 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – UAB -6

Friday, September 25th

Middle Tennessee (0-2) @ UTSA (2-0)
8 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: UTSA -6.5

CSD Pick: UTSA 30, Middle Tennessee 26

Saturday, September 26th

Kansas State (0-1) @ #3 Oklahoma (1-0)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -26.5

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 43, Kansas State 18

#5 Florida @ Ole Miss

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -13

For Lane Kiffin, getting a win in his Ole Miss debut could prove to be a tough challenge, as the Rebels will face Kyle Trask and a Florida team that many see as a national title contender. I’m a big fan of Ole Miss this year, Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee are two solid pieces for the offense, but in game one, Trask (2,941 yards, 25 touchdowns) will throw all over a bad Ole Miss secondary, and the Gators should carry this one by double digits.

CSD Pick: Florida 37, Ole Miss 24

#23 Kentucky @ #8 Auburn

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Auburn -8

The game of the day, in my view, as a Kentucky team that closed out 2019 with five wins in a row travels to face now-sophomore QB Bo Nix and new offensive coordinator Chad Morris. Kentucky will get QB Terry Wilson back for this one, he missed much of last year with a season-ending injury which saw WR Lynn Bowden Jr. take over the QB role. I like Kentucky a lot this year, but they are on the road against a much more talented team. WR Seth Williams and RB DJ Williams are a pair of excellent returnees in the skill corps for Auburn, and I expect the Tigers to win, although if the Wildcats can force some turnovers, an upset is not out of the question.

CSD Pick: Auburn 30, Kentucky 23

#13 UCF (1-0) @ East Carolina
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: UCF -25.5

CSD Pick: UCF 50, East Carolina 25

Georgia Southern (1-0) @ #19 Louisiana (2-0, 1-0 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Louisiana -15

CSD Pick: Louisiana 38, Georgia Southern 20

#24 Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ACC) @ #21 Pitt (2-0, 1-0 ACC)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pitt -3.5

The second ranked-vs-ranked matchup of the day comes from the ACC as #24 Louisville, fresh off of a loss to Miami, attempts to avoid an 0-2 start to ACC play as they travel to take on #21 Pitt. The offense for Louisville looked good last week, the defense? Not so much. The Cards were gashed for 7.9 yards per play, and I expect Pitt QB Kenny Pickett to pick this UL defense apart (pun intended). The Panthers’ awesome edge rush won’t give Micale Cunnigam room to breathe, and the defense, which held Syracuse to just 171 yards last Sunday, will stifle the potent UL offense. This will be tight, but I’m taking the Panthers.

CSD Pick: Pitt 29, Louisville 27

Georgia Tech (1-1, 1-0 ACC) @ Syracuse (0-2, 0-2 ACC)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech -7.5

CSD Pick: Georgia Tech 28, Syracuse 22

Georgia State (0-1) @ Charlotte (0-1) CANCELLED
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Georgia State -2.5

The combination of Charlotte needing to cancel their week three game due to COVID concerns and Georgia State’s strong showing against Louisiana last week meant the line for this one was bet all the way up to Georgia State being favored by 2.5. Charlotte’s COVID problems seem to be over, and I think GaSt’s strong showing against ULL last week was more a result of the Cajuns being complacent after being the media darlings post-week two than anything else. I’ll take the better team, at home, getting points.

CSD Pick: Charlotte 30, Georgia State 29

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Charlotte +2.5

Campbell (0-2) @ Appalachian State (1-1)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -35.5

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 45, Campbell 8

FIU @ Liberty (1-0)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -7

CSD Pick: Liberty 33, FIU 28

Iowa State (0-1) @ TCU

1:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa State -2.5

This game is wild. Iowa State, especially star QB Brock Purdy, did not look up to par in week one against Louisiana, but TCU is starting a former walk-on, Matthew Downing at QB and have missed a ton of practices due to COVID concerns. ISU is off a bye, and TCU hasn’t played a game yet. My pick for this game is mostly just the shrug emoji, but I’ll err on the side of Iowa State, a team I would’ve said was significantly better in the preseason, coming out angry after their week one loss and putting the boots to a TCU team that could have a lot of players out due to COVID. Give me Iowa State, but close.

CSD Pick: Iowa State 25, TCU 23

Mississippi State @ #6 LSU

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: LSU -18.5

The debut for Mike Leach in the SEC is going to be rough, as his Mississippi State Bulldogs will travel to the defending national champions for the 3:30 CBS SEC game. LSU will be a good team this year, but there is so much turnover from last year’s roster, and without spring practices to get the new starters familiar with the system, I worry about LSU, but on the other side, Mississippi State is installing an entirely new system.

LSU’s talent, especially on defense, will win the day, but I expect the new Mike Leach passing attack to put up points, and always take the points in a shootout. Give me LSU straight up, but Leach to cover the 18.5 fairly easily in his debut.

CSD Pick: LSU 40, Mississippi State 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Mississippi State +18.5

#8 Texas (1-0) @ Texas Tech (1-0)
3:30 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Texas -16

Texas Tech’s defense has been a joke for a while, but they were especially atrocious in their season opener, giving up 572 passing yards to Houston Baptist and needing a last-second two-point conversion stop to avoid overtime against the FCS foe. Texas should easily cover the 18-point spread, even on the road.

CSD Pick: Texas 44, Texas Tech 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Texas -16

#22 Army (2-0) @ #14 Cincinnati (1-0)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -11.5

Our first big group of five clash of the year, as 2-0 Army runs into a Cincinnati team that I called a darkhorse playoff contender before the year. Army is good, the attack looks great this year and seems to not have dropped off after losing a lot of pieces from last year, but their two dominant wins have come against Middle Tennessee State and UL-Monroe, not exactly powerhouses. I have faith in QB Desmond Ridder and the rest of this Cincy team to handle this one with relative ease.

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 35, Army 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Cincinnati -11.5

West Virginia (1-0) @ #15 Oklahoma State (1-0)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -8

This game intrigues me a lot. Oklahoma State looked terrible last week against Tulsa, and I’m not sure if the result of that will be the Cowboys coming out with their heads hung or going out to try and prove the doubters wrong here. West Virginia looked good in their season-opening 56-10 win over Eastern Kentucky, but I just don’t have a lot of faith in the West Virginia offense, which struggled mightily last year. Give me OSU to bounce back.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 30, West Virginia 21

UTEP (2-1) @ UL Monroe (0-2)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: UL Monroe -8

CSD Pick: UL Monroe 28, UTEP 22

#4 Georgia @ Arkansas
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -24

CSD Pick: Georgia 41, Arkansas 12

Duke (0-2, 0-2 ACC) @ Virginia
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia –5.5

The defending ACC Coastal Champs open their season against an 0-2 Duke team that has really struggled out of the gate. I get the idea that Duke has had two games to figure things out while UVa is coming in blind here, but this Virginia team, even without Bryce Perkins, is just too good. The Duke pass defense has struggled, and I really like new Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong’s arm strength (no pun intended). The WaHoos should easily cover 5.5.

CSD Pick: Virginia 27, Duke 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia -5.5

Texas State (1-2) @ Boston College (1-0)
6 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Boston College -17.5

CSD Pick: Boston College 37, Texas State 19

#2 Alabama @ Missouri
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Alabama -28

CSD Pick: Alabama 42, Missouri 17

Houston Baptist (0-2) @ Louisiana Tech (1-0)
7 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech -23.5

CSD Pick: Louisiana Tech 43, Houston Baptist 15

Tulane (1-1) @ Southern Miss (0-2)
7 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: Tulane -3

CSD Pick: Tulane 30, Southern Miss 26

Stephen F. Austin (0-2) @ SMU (2-0)
7 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: SMU -34.5

CSD Pick: SMU 50, Stephen F. Austin 10

Vanderbilt @ #10 Texas A&M
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -30

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 38, Vanderbilt 6

Florida State (0-1, 0-1 ACC) @ #12 Miami (2-0, 1-0 ACC)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Miami -7

The ABC primetime/College Gameday game for week four comes from the ACC yet again, as 0-1 Florida State travels to Coral Gables to take on Miami. Its been a rough going for the ‘Noles. Many hoped that the hiring of Mike Norvell would’ve turned things around, but 2020 has been just as disastrous as the past few years. The program was embroiled in offseason scandal, FSU opened their year with a gutting home loss to projected ACC bottom-feeder Georgia Tech, and Mike Norvell contracted the coronavirus. Of course, I wish Norvell a very speedy recovery.

On the field, FSU is just as talented as Miami, but the ‘Noles just haven’t been able to put the pieces together. QB James Blackman is better than given credit for, but he’s no D’Eriq King. The FSU offensive line will struggle again- Jaelan Phillips and Anthony Russo will wreak havoc behind the line of scrimmage- and the ‘Canes will pick up another victory in primetime heading into their week six clash with Clemson.

CSD Pick: Miami 31, Florida State 22

#16 Tennessee @ South Carolina

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -3

This is another game that really intrigues me. Tennessee comes into the game ranked 16th, the receivers of massive hype in the offseason, but they have to open with a hungry South Carolina team, looking for a win. Lord knows head coach Will Muschamp desperately needs a big one. The defense for USC is solid, but I don’t have a ton of faith in new starting quarterback Collin Hill in game one. Hill, a Colorado State transfer, struggled mightily with throwing picks against Mountain West D-backs, I don’t expect his luck against SEC ones to be much better.

The linebacking corps of Tennessee should control the game, and I have faith in the Tennessee offense, led by their excellent offensive line, to put up enough points to get a close win in what will be a very low-scoring affair.

CSD Pick: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 19

Kansas (0-1) @ Baylor
7:30 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Baylor -18.5

CSD Pick: Baylor 41, Kansas 18

NC State (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ #20 Virginia Tech
8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech –7

Virginia Tech is the only ACC school other than Virginia that has yet to play a game, and I’m picking the Hokies to smack an NC State team that let up 42 points to Wake Forest last week. I had Tech rated out as a top-15 caliber squad before the season started, and I’m sticking to my guns on that. I have faith in Hokie QB Hendon Hooker, and I expect him to tear up the State defense, and for the Hokie pass rush to give QB Bailey Hockman tons of trouble on the other side of the ball. Tech -7 should cover easily.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 33, NC State 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia Tech -7

Troy (1-0) @ #18 BYU (1-0)
10:15 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: BYU -15

CSD Pick: BYU 39, Troy 24

Winner: Miami

The U is back? Maybe. The defense looks to be a step down from 2019, but the offense looks the best its been in a half-decade. OC Rhett Lashlee and new QB D’Eriq King (325 yards, three touchdowns) led the ‘Canes to 47 points @ Louisville on Saturday. Jaylan Knighton and Cam’Ron Harris look to be a viable RB duo, and TE Brevin Jordan is up there with the best in the country. I’d like to see the ‘Canes prove themselves against a top-25 defense, but the early returns all come up aces in Coral Gables.

Loser: Oklahoma State Hype

Sure, QB Spencer Sanders got injured, but a team thought to have one of the best offenses in the country coming into the year should put up more than 16 points on Tulsa. The Cowboys were lucky to escape Stillwater with a 16-7 win, Tulsa killed itself with penalties and frankly looked like the more talented team for most of the game. The gap between the Big 12’s elite and middle class looks to only be widening.

Winner: UCF

It wasn’t pretty, but by the end of four quarters, the scoreboard read UCF 49, Georgia Tech 21 as the Golden Knight put up 660 yards of total offense on the Yellow Jackets, led by QB Dillon Gabriel’s 417 yards and four touchdowns. Cincinnati looked great too, and the race for the AAC Title looks to be close as ever.

Loser: Tulane’s 24-0 lead

After coming back to win last week, Tulane got a taste of their own medicine on Saturday, blowing a 24-0 lead on a Navy team that was outscored 79-3 in their first six quarters of football this season. The Midshipmen, led by Dalen Morris, rattled off 27 straight points to pick up a 27-24 victory on the backs of a Bijan Nichols game-winner.

Winner: Boston College

Game one for new head coach Jeff Hafley at Boston College was nothing but a massive success. The Golden Eagles dominated Duke on the road, holding the Blue Devils to just six points and forcing five turnovers. The story, however, was Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec, who threw at a 74% clip for 300 yards and two scores. This team is good.

Loser: Western Kentucky

I thought the Hilltoppers, who won eight of their final ten to close out 2019, would be a contender in Conference USA this year, but September has not been nice to WKU. Losing a game 35-21 at Louisville is understandable, dropping your week two game to Liberty is something else. The defense looks to have taken a step back this year, and with an 0-2 start, WKU enters C-USA play on their heels.

Winner: UTSA RB Sincere McCormick

McCormick has helped lead UTSA to a 2-0 start and will enter week four as the nation’s leading rusher with almost 300 yards through two games. He was key in UTSA’s 24-10 over Stephen F. Austin on Saturday and will run all over Middle Tennessee Friday night.

Loser: Middle Tennessee

An MTSU team that lost a lot but was still thought to be a solid team in Conference USA this year has been throttled to open the year, losing their first two games to Army and Troy by a combined score of 89-14. After being ranked 63rd in the preseason, the Blue Raiders have already dropped 11 spots to 74th, third-worst in the country only ahead of UL Monroe and UTEP.

Winner: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence

I mean, come on, this one is too easy. The guy threw nine passes and three of them were touchdowns. Lawrence was special, and the Tigers cruised to a 49-0 win over The Citadel. They now have an off week to prepare for Virginia in a rematch of last year’s ACC title game.

Week Three is in the books. Louisiana and Oklahoma State survived tough tests as big favorites, Appalachian State fell to Marshall, and Miami controlled Louisville from start to finish. Let’s take a look at this week’s CSD Prime Computer Model Rankings.

Biggest Risers

Tulsa — +9
Boston College — +8
Troy — +7
Miami, Marshall, Liberty — +5

Tulsa’s defense looked dominant against an Oklahoma State offense thought to be potentially the best in the country, and thus, despite a 16-7 loss, the Golden Hurricane rockets up nine spots and lands in the top 50 at #47. Elsewhere, Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jerkovic looked great for Boston College @ Duke, and Troy continued Sun Belt domination against Middle Tennessee. Hugh Freeze and Liberty upset a WKU team thought to be a Conference USA favorite, and Marshall cemented themselves as the Conference USA favorite with a 17-7 victory over App State. Finally, in the biggest game of the day, Miami never looked dominant, but they controlled Louisville from start to finish. The defense looked shaky, though, we’ll see if they can contain Florida State this week.

Biggest Fallers

Western Kentucky — -10
Duke — -8
Oklahoma State, Appalachian State — -6
Louisville, SMU, USF, Middle Tennessee — -5

The only thing really of note here not already covered is SMU dropping five spots after beating North Texas 65-35. The short answer? A top-35 team should not be letting up 35 points to a team that came into the week ranked as one of the three worst in the nation. The Mustangs barely cracked a 60 (out of 100) defensive grade on PFF for that performance, and they have their work cut out for them with Memphis in a few weeks.

A Lesson In Sample Size

After a week one victory @ #15 Iowa State, the Louisiana Rajin’ Cajuns only jumped up a few spots in this model, to 25th, while they rocketed to 19th in the AP poll. Why? A few reasons. First, the game wasn’t nearly as dominant as the 31-14 score indicated. The model gave ULL just a 67% post-game win-probability, much more in line with a one-score game. Additionally, it was one game, and the model is built to not overreact to a one-game sample size. Of course, it was proven correct this week. The Cajuns almost fumbled away their ranking, going down 21-7 to #64 Georgia State before eventually rallying to win in overtime, 34-31. That’s not the mark of a #19 team. So I warn you in the future, don’t overreact to one game.

Rank	Team	Conf	+/-	YTD +/-
1	Alabama	SEC	0	0
2	Clemson	ACC	0	0
3	Georgia	SEC	0	0
4	Oklahoma	Big 12	0	0
5	Florida	SEC	0	0
6	Texas A&M	SEC	0	0
7	Louisiana State	SEC	0	0
8	Auburn	SEC	0	0
9	Texas	Big 12	0	0
10	Notre Dame	ACC	1	0
11	North Carolina	ACC	1	1
12	Central Florida	AAC	4	5
13	Virginia Tech	ACC	0	0
14	Cincinnati	AAC	0	0
15	Tennessee	SEC	0	1
16	Oklahoma State	Big 12	-6	-5
17	Miami (FL)	ACC	5	5
18	Kentucky	SEC	-1	2
19	Memphis	AAC	0	0
20	Baylor	Big 12	1	3
21	Iowa State	Big 12	-1	-6
22	Mississippi	SEC	1	2
23	Louisville	ACC	-5	-5
24	Pittsburgh	ACC	0	1
25	Texas Christian	Big 12	1	1
26	Florida State	ACC	2	-5
27	Virginia	ACC	2	1
28	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-3	5
29	South Carolina	SEC	1	1
30	Brigham Young	Ind	2	10
31	West Virginia	Big 12	0	3
32	Mississippi State	SEC	1	0
33	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-6	-6
34	Wake Forest	ACC	3	1
35	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	0	6
36	Boston College	ACC	8	6
37	Georgia Tech	ACC	-1	8
38	Missouri	SEC	0	-2
39	Southern Methodist	AAC	-5	-8
40	Houston	AAC	-1	-3
41	Kansas State	Big 12	0	-12
42	North Carolina State	ACC	-2	-4
43	Marshall	CUSA	5	7
44	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	2	11
45	Texas Tech	Big 12	-2	-6
46	Syracuse	ACC	1	2
47	Tulsa	AAC	9	10
48	Temple	AAC	1	1
49	Navy	AAC	1	-6
50	Duke	ACC	-8	-6
51	Arkansas	SEC	0	0
52	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0	0
53	Tulane	AAC	0	-6
54	Army	Ind	1	8
55	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-10	-9
56	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-2	-2
57	Charlotte	CUSA	0	-1
58	South Alabama	Sun Belt	3	14
59	Troy	Sun Belt	7	6
60	East Carolina	AAC	-1	0
61	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1	-8
62	Vanderbilt	SEC	-2	-1
63	South Florida	AAC	-5	-4
64	Georgia State	Sun Belt	0	0
65	Liberty	Ind	5	5
66	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	-3	3
67	Rice	CUSA	0	-1
68	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-3	-10
69	Florida International	CUSA	-1	-1
70	Texas State	Sun Belt	4	5
71	Kansas	Big 12	1	-4
72	North Texas	CUSA	3	1
73	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-2	-2
74	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-5	-11
75	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-2	-1
76	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	0	0

College Football’s third week of the season features the first ranked vs ranked matchup of the year as #17 Miami will travel to face Micale Cunningham and #18 Louisville.

Also on the schedule:

• Fresh off their win at Florida State, Georgia Tech will get a chance to pull another upset, this time at home against #14 UCF.
• #24 Appalachian State attempts to continue the year of the Sun Belt as they take on Conference USA East favorite Marshall, one of the most impressive teams of week one in a game that will be nationally broadcast on CBS
• #11 Oklahoma State tests out their high-powered offense vs Tulsa
• #19 Louisiana tries to avoid an upset @ Georgi State after pulling an upset of their own in week one
• A trio of ACC matchups take center stage as #25 Pitt takes on Syracuse, Wake Forest battles NC State, and Boston College debuts a new QB and head coach @ Duke
• #7 Notre Dame, which looked shaky at times in week one, gets a chance to prove their worth in their only non-conference game of the year against USF

Unfortunately, some very intriguing games were canceled this week, most notably #16 Memphis vs Houston, #22 Army vs #21 BYU, #20 Virginia Tech vs Virginia, Baylor vs Houston, and #12 North Carolina vs Charlotte. Hopefully, at least a couple are able to be rescheduled.

2020 Stats

Straight Up: 23-6 (79%)
ATS Best Bets: 4-2 (+1.64 units)

Best Bets

Navy (+8) @ Tulane – 12 PM ET, ABC
Boston College (+6.5) @ Duke – 12 PM ET, ESPN3
#14 UCF (-7) @ Georgia Tech – 3:30 PM ET, ABC
#23 Appalachian State (-3.5) @ Marshall – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
#1 Clemson (-43.5) vs The Citadel – 4 PM ET, ACC Network
SMU (-13.5) @ North Texas – 6 PM ET, CBSSN
Louisiana Tech (+5.5) @ Southern Miss – 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Friday, September 18th

Campbell (0-1) @ Coastal Carolina (1-0)
7 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -26.5

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 37, Campbell 12

Saturday, September 19th

Tulsa @ #11 Oklahoma State

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -23

QB Zach Smith is back to run the Tulsa offense after an improved year in 2019, and he should put up some points on the Oklahoma State defense, but he will be up against one of the best skill corps in the country. QB Spencer Sanders, RB Chuba Hubbard, and WR Tylan Wallace will run all over a Tulsa defense that really struggled last year. Give me the Cowboys, big.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 45, Tulsa 20

Austin Peay (0-2) @ #13 Cincinnati
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -33.5

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 40, Austin Peay 7

#19 Louisiana (1-0) @ Georgia State

12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Louisiana -17

I’m upgrading this to a featured game following the cancellation of Houston-Baylor. ULL, led by backs Eli Mitchell and Trey Ragas, should roll here against a Georgia State team out of their league, but watch out, the letdown effect after an upset is strong, and the Ragin’ Cajuns may be ripe to be upset themselves.

CSD Pick: Louisiana 39, Georgia State 22

Syracuse (0-1, 0-1 ACC) @ #25 Pittsburgh (1-0)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh -22

Pitt looked excellent in their week one victory over Austin Peay, crushing the FCS foe 42-0 by halftime, dominating them so much that the teams agreed to shortened quarters for the second half. The star of this Pitt team is the defense, more specifically, the pass rush, which was one of the best in the country last year and looks to have not dropped off in 2020. They go up against a Syracuse offensive line that was awful last year and looked awful in week one. The Orange held with North Carolina for three quarters last week, but the passing attack struggled. This probably won’t be close.

CSD Pick: Pitt 32, Syracuse 15

Liberty @ Western Kentucky (0-1)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky -14

CSD Pick: Western Kentucky 33, Liberty 23

Navy (0-1) @ Tulane (1-0)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Tulane -8

Alright, week one was rough for Navy. The Midshipmen looked like they had never heard of what a football was and got demolished by BYU, 55-3. But… this is a really good team on paper, one that should’ve been a clear tier-two team in the AAC alongside squads like SMU and Houston, and Tulane didn’t look great in their opener either, needing to come from behind to beat a bad Texas State team. I’m not ballsy enough to call it outright, but I have faith in the great Ken Niumatalolo to pick his boys up from the disastrous week one performance and at the very least put up a fight here, covering the eight-point spread.

CSD pick: Tulane 30, Navy 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Navy +8

Boston College @ Duke (0-1, 0-1 ACC)

12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Duke -6.5

In comes former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley to coach the Golden Eagles of Boston College after what felt like forever for BC under Steve Addizio. I really like Hafley, and he should have no trouble immediately improving a defense that struggled mightily last year. The Eagles are experienced, especially on the second level, and I have faith in Hafley. They take on a Duke team that is undoubtedly more talented but didn’t look great last week against Notre Dame. QB Chase Brice was just fine, and there was almost no run game to speak of. Who wins this game will come down to how former Notre Dame QB Phil Jurkovec plays for Boston College. I’m going to hedge my bets a little and say Duke will win, but it will be a lot closer than Vegas thinks. Give me Jurkovec and the Eagles +6.5.

CSD Pick: Duke 24, Boston College 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boston College +6.5

Houston @ Baylor
CANCELLED

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Baylor -6.5

This game got thrown together at the last minute and is now Fox’s big noon game of the week. The winner of this should probably earn a spot in the top 25 next week, so there are some stakes for this non-conference showdown between two teams that had their scheduled season openers canceled. This is a tough one to call. Houston struggled a lot last year, but are returning almost everyone on both sides of the ball (outside of QB D’Eriq King). On the other hand, Baylor returns almost no one (except for QB Charlie Brewer) from a team that was awesome last year. That’s funny. Brewer is excellent, as is new Baylor head coach Dave Aranda, and I think the talent gap will just be too big here. I expect Baylor to secure a win for the Big 12, a conference in desperate need of one.

CSD Pick: Baylor 34, Houston 26

USF (1-0) @ #7 Notre Dame (1-0)

2:30 PM ET, USA
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -26

USF fell off a cliff over the past one and a half seasons, and new coach Jeff Scott has a real rebuilding project on his hands, but last week -against The Citadel, granted- the Bulls run game looked really good, rushing for two touchdowns and over 300 yards against the FCS foe. They will almost certainly lose this game (~ 5% win probability) against a monumentally more talented Notre Dame team, but how close they can keep it will be very telling for Scott’s tenure. Unfortunately for USF, I happen to think the answer to that question will be “not very close”, the Notre Dame defense looked awesome last week, holding Duke to just 73 rushing yards, but I do think this game is worth keeping an eye on to see how the Notre Dame offense, which wasn’t great last week, fares against the Bulls.

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 40, USF 12

Stephen F. Austin (0-1) @ UTSA (1-0)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: UTSA -14.5

CSD Pick: UTSA 32, Stephen F. Austin 12

#23 Appalachian State (1-0) @ Marshall (1-0)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -3.5

This game got moved up to the flagship CBS network, which is pretty cool for two G5 teams. This is the Sun Belt East favorite, App State, against the Conference USA East favorite, Marshall, and it should be a super fun game to watch. Marshall’s freshman QB, Grant Wells, hit at a 70% clip for 307 yards and four touchdowns in his debut for Marshall in week one, and RB Brenden Knox looked excellent, but they were playing Eastern Kentucky.

App State QB Zac Thomas is experienced, the Mountaineer run game is awesome, and DB Shemar Jean-Charles put in one of the best performances of week two. I like this Marshall team, and Wells looks to be good, but let’s not overreact to one game. Let alone one game against Eastern Kentucky. Give me one of the most consistent programs of the last half-decade, App State, to win this one and cover the 3.5-point spread easily.

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 34, Marshall 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Appalachian State -3.5

#14 UCF @ Georgia Tech (1-0)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: UCF -7

Miami-Louisville is the biggest game of the day, but this might be the most interesting. With the news of the Big Ten planning on restarting their football season, the dreams of an AAC playoff team may be dead for now, but UCF and HC Josh Heupel still have a lot to prove after a down year in 2019. They take on a Georgia Tech team that beat Florida State last week but did not look pretty doing it. Freshman QB Jeff Sims looked like a freshman, he made some plays but also threw two “gimme” interceptions. Georgia Tech’s upset last week was more the product of FSU playing poorly than the Yellow Jackets playing well, and I expect a stacked UCF team, one that was a lot better than their record indicated last year to cruise to a win here and easily cover the seven-point spread.

CSD Pick: UCF 34, Georgia Tech 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – UCF -7

Troy @ Middle Tennessee (0-1)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Troy -3.5

CSD Pick: Troy 32, Middle Tennessee 29

The Citadel (0-1) @ #1 Clemson (1-0)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Clemson -43.5

Come on. I know Clemson pulled their starters early and only beat Wake Forest by 24 last week, but a 43.5 point spread against The Citadel, a team that USF gashed for 302 rushing yards last week, is a joke. The Citadel averages just one point in my model’s 1,000 simulations of this game. This won’t be close.

CSD Pick: Clemson 53, The Citadel 1

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Clemson -43.5

SMU (1-0) @ North Texas (1-0)
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: SMU -13.5

POINTS. This one will have the scoreboard lighting up, as two of the best offenses in the G5 go head-to-head in what should be a fun primetime shoutout in Texas. Both these teams struggled in week one against inferior teams, but I have a lot more faith in SMU to turn it around. SMU QB Shane Buechele might be the best QB in the state, and on the road here the Mustangs should easily cover the 13.5 point line in what will be a very high-scoring affair.

CSD Pick: SMU 45, North Texas 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – SMU -13.5

Game of the Day:
#17 Miami (1-0) @ #18 Louisville (1-0)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Louisville -2.5

The game of the day comes between two teams looking to be contenders in the ACC this year. Notre Dame and North Carolina both looked a little shaky in week one, and both of these squads are ready to step up if that continues.

Louisville comes in fresh off a win over a decent WKU team, 35-21. QB Micale Cunningham wasn’t great, completing just 56% of his passes in the win, but the offensive line looked to be much improved. Also struggling was RB Javian Hawkins, who averaged just 4.0 YPC, but All-American contending WR Tutu Atwell was great as per usual, pulling in seven catches for 78 yards. On defense, LB Monty Montgomery (three tackles, sack) and S Russ Yeast (zero catches allowed) are a pair of veteran leaders that I really like.

For Miami, the ‘Canes beat another decent C-USA team, UAB, by a 31-14 margin in a game that was a lot closer than that margin indicated. QB D’Eriq King looked very good, throwing for 148 yards and a score, and adding 104 and one on the ground. RB Jaylan Knighton (59 yards, 6.6 YPC) looked decent behind an offensive line that still wasn’t great but looked better than last year. On defense, Miami didn’t appear to be on the level of the 2019 defense. Edge rusher Quincy Roche got a sackbut struggled in run defense, it was actually Jaelan Phillips (one hit, two hurries, two tackles) who impressed me more. S Gurvan Hall Jr (zero catches allowed) looks to be taking a step up in the secondary.

As for this one, Miami’s rush game, between Cam’Ron Harris, Jaylan Knighton, and D’Eriq King looks excellent, and the Cards might struggle to stop it, but I have very little faith in Miami’s secondary. The QB/WR duo of Micale Cunningham and Tutu Atwell is one of the best in the ACC. This will be tight, and a fun game to watch between two very dynamic QBs, but I slightly favor the Cards at home

CSD Pick: Louisville 31, Miami 30

Louisiana Tech @ Southern Miss (0-1)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Southern Miss -5.5

My upset special for the day comes from Conference USA where I’ll take Louisiana Tech to beat Southern Miss outright. La Tech returns one of the most tenured coaches in the G5, Skip Holtz. Southern Miss just fired their coach, Jay Hopson, after one game, creating a staff in turmoil. Not to mention, the Golden Eagles looked awful in week one, getting crushed at home by a bad South Alabama team. La Tech needs to replace a lot this year, especially on the lines, but I think they can get this done on the road.

CSD Pick: Louisiana Tech 31, Southern Miss 30

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Louisiana Tech +5.5

Texas State (0-2) @ UL Monroe (0-1)
7:30 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Texas State -5.5

CSD Pick: Texas State 33, UL Monroe 32

Wake Forest (0-1, 0-1 ACC) @ NC State

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: NC State -2.5

Two ACC teams rated firmly in the middle of the pack face off in what will be a nice “switch-to” game during Miami-Louisville. Wake Forest performed decently against #1 Clemson last week, falling 37-13 to the Tigers, but covering the spread in the process. Only one ACC team was able to perform that feat all of last year (North Carolina). QB Sam Hartman threw for 182 yards and earned a 67.6 grade from Pro Football Focus despite a rough day from the offensive line.

The Demon Deacons take on an NC State team that didn’t play last week due to COVID issues, a team that should be much improved after a rare down year in Dave Doeren’s tenure.

The defense will take a step up for the Wolfpack, a lot of talent returns there, but which side wins this game will come down how improved NC State QB Devin Leary is after a disastrous 2019. Leary gets most of the skill corps back around him, and I have confidence in Dave Doeren, who has been incredibly consistent outside of last year. I’ll take NC State, but this will be one of the closest games of the day.

CSD Pick: NC State 28, Wake Forest 26

Abilene Christian @ UTEP (1-1)
9 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: UTEP -4

CSD Pick: UTEP 23. Abilene Christian 22

Winner: The Sun Belt

I mean, obviously. Three SBC teams knocked off Big 12 foes on Saturday, including Louisiana’s win over playoff darkhorse Iowa State. The Ragin’ Cajuns are legit good, and a threat to run the table this year and make the New Year’s Six. Also impressing was Arkansas State, led by stud receiver Jonathan Adams (98 yards, three touchdowns). The Red Wolves beat Kansas State shorthanded, and Coastal Carolina knocked off Kansas for the second year in a row. That’s not to mention preseason conference favorite Appalachian State, which took care of a decent Charlotte team 35-20.

Loser: Florida State

The ‘Noles dropped their season opener for what feels like the 80th year in a row Saturday, blowing a 10-0 lead over Georgia Tech to drop to the ACC bottom-feeder Yellow Jackets, who are still just 365 days removed from undergoing a massive transition from the triple option to a spread system. James Blackman struggled again, but the weak offensive line and inexperienced receiving corps didn’t help. It’s going to be another long year in Tallahassee.

Winner: Miami QB D’Eriq King

Led by King, Miami rolled to a 31-14 victory over a good UAB team on Thursday, the offense racking up 495 yards on what was a top 25 defense last year. King looked like he was back to his 2018 self, making plays both with his arm and legs. I can’t wait to see the matchup with Louisville this week, primetime on ABC.

Winner: Notre Dame RB Kyren Williams

It was, at some points, shaky for Notre Dame in their 27-13 win over Duke Saturday, but the one consistent bright spot was the run game. Helped by one of the best offensive lines in the country, Kyren Williams racked up 112 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and added 93 yards in the receiving game. Williams looks like a legit difference-maker.

Loser: Iowa State QB Brock Purdy

Iowa State did not look right on Saturday, and the playoff dark horse’s star QB, Brock Purdy, just didn’t look the part. The longtime ‘Clones starter looked tentative and unsure of himself, and the offense struggled as a result. Hopefully, he can get back on the right track with TCU coming up in two weeks.

Winner: The Big 12’s elite

The middle class of the Big 12 struggled on Saturday, but the top-two teams: Oklahoma and Texas, both rolled, powered by their Heisman contending quarterbacks: Spencer Rattler and Sam Ehlinger. Both only played a half, but racked up gaudy numbers, combining for 716 yards and nine touchdowns.

Loser: The Texas Tech defense

Granted, Houston Baptist QB Bailey Zappe had the game of his life, but there is no excuse for letting up 567 yards and four touchdowns to an FCS quarterback. Zappe is legit good, he threw for 480 and three last week against North Texas, but a power five defense should not be struggling that much with Houston Baptist. The Tech defense gave up over 600 yards of offense all in all, and needed a last-second two-point conversion stop to escape Lubbock with a 35-33 win.

Winner: UTSA 51, Texas State 48 (2OT)

The game of the day came from a Sun Belt vs Conference USA double-overtime thriller that featured special team blunders, special team speed, and 30 fourth-quarter points. Check out the highlights if you missed it.

Winner: Clemson

It was as if there was no offseason. The Tigers looked like a well-oiled machine on Saturday, dominating a decent Wake Forest team 37-13. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne looked the part, leading the offense to 561 yards. The Tigers remain a national title favorite.

Winner: Us

There will be postponements, there will be games with no crowd, there will be star players sitting out, but college football is back. And that’s pretty cool. For a day, we all came together and watched a double-overtime C-USA vs Sun Belt game. We watched Jonathan Adams push his way onto NFL draft boards. We got the headgear pick and the Fansville commercials. We got some sense of normalcy. That’s pretty cool. Pretty, pretty cool.

Biggest Risers

South Alabama +11 spots
Georgia Tech +9 spots
Arkansas State +9 spots
Louisiana +8 spots
BYU +8 spots
Army +7 spots

The biggest riser comes out of the Sun Belt – but it isn’t one of the three SBC teams that upset Big 12 opponents – its South Alabama. The Jaguars upset Southern Miss as 12-point underdogs in week one (a bigger upset than Louisiana’s win) and then almost did it again last week as 11.5-point underdogs against Tulane. I said in my Sun Belt preview that you could see the potential in the South Alabama team, and they are proving it much earlier than I could’ve expected.

Biggest Fallers

Kansas State -12 spots
Southern Miss -9 spots
Florida State -7 spots
Navy -7 spots

The biggest faller is, of course, Kansas State. The Wildcats took on an Arkansas State team that was shorthanded due to COVID stouts, at home, with fans in the stands, and blew it. The offense looked sluggish and the defense couldn’t stop Jonathan Adams. The ‘Cats Big 12 opener against Oklahoma in two weeks is looking like it could be ugly.

Biggest Performances of the Week

1. Georgia Tech beating Florida State 16-13 in Mike Norvell’s debut
2. Arkansas State shocking K-State down a dozen players
3. Louisiana proving they are for real @ Iowa State
4. Coastal Carolina taking down Kansas for the second year in a row

A note before we get into the rankings – they are designed not to overreact to a one-game sample size – so, for example, you will notice Iowa State being ranked ahead of Louisiana. That is to be expected. If both teams continue to play like they did Saturday in the coming weeks, expect the Ragin’ Cajuns to pass the Cyclones sooner rather than later.

Rank	Team	Conf	Change
1	Alabama	SEC	0
2	Clemson	ACC	0
3	Georgia	SEC	0
4	Oklahoma	Big 12	0
5	Florida	SEC	0
6	Texas A&M	SEC	0
7	Louisiana State	SEC	0
8	Auburn	SEC	0
9	Texas	Big 12	0
10	Oklahoma State	Big 12	1
11	Notre Dame	ACC	-1
12	North Carolina	ACC	0
13	Virginia Tech	ACC	0
14	Cincinnati	AAC	0
15	Tennessee	SEC	1
16	Central Florida	AAC	1
17	Kentucky	SEC	3
18	Louisville	ACC	0
19	Memphis	AAC	0
20	Iowa State	Big 12	-5
21	Baylor	Big 12	2
22	Miami (FL)	ACC	0
23	Mississippi	SEC	1
24	Pittsburgh	ACC	1
25	Louisiana	Sun Belt	8
26	Texas Christian	Big 12	0
27	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	0
28	Florida State	ACC	-7
29	Virginia	ACC	-1
30	South Carolina	SEC	0
31	West Virginia	Big 12	3
32	Brigham Young	Ind	8
33	Mississippi State	SEC	-1
34	Southern Methodist	AAC	-3
35	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	6
36	Georgia Tech	ACC	9
37	Wake Forest	ACC	-2
38	Missouri	SEC	-2
39	Houston	AAC	-2
40	North Carolina State	ACC	-2
41	Kansas State	Big 12	-12
42	Duke	ACC	2
43	Texas Tech	Big 12	-4
44	Boston College	ACC	-2
45	Western Kentucky	CUSA	1
46	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	9
47	Syracuse	ACC	1
48	Marshall	CUSA	2
49	Temple	AAC	0
50	Navy	AAC	-7
51	Arkansas	SEC	0
52	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0
53	Tulane	AAC	-6
54	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0
55	Army	Ind	7
56	Tulsa	AAC	1
57	Charlotte	CUSA	-1
58	South Florida	AAC	1
59	East Carolina	AAC	1
60	Vanderbilt	SEC	1
61	South Alabama	Sun Belt	11
62	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9
63	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	6
64	Georgia State	Sun Belt	0
65	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-7
66	Troy	Sun Belt	-1
67	Rice	CUSA	-1
68	Florida International	CUSA	0
69	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-6
70	Liberty	Ind	0
71	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	0
72	Kansas	Big 12	-5
73	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	1
74	Texas State	Sun Belt	1
75	North Texas	CUSA	-2
76	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	0

The Big 12 and ACC will kick off their 2020 campaigns this week, with a bigger -but still not completely full- College Football Saturday on the horizon compared to week one. Ranked squads Miami, Appalachian State, Iowa State, and Louisville will take on some of the very best teams out of the low G5. Individually, all the ranked teams will be favored, but odds say at least one of UAB, Charlotte, ULL, or Western Kentucky will pull the upset. Duke-Notre Dame, Georgia Tech-Florida State, North Carolina-Syracuse, and College Gameday host Clemson-Wake Forest give us our first P5 vs P5 games of the year. Let’s dig in!

2020 Stats

Straight Up: 8-1 (89%)
ATS Best Bets: 1-1 (-.09 units)

Best Bets

Kansas State (-10) vs Arkansas State – 12 PM ET, FOX
Campbell (+34.5) @ Georgia Southern – 3:30 PM ET, ESPNU
#4 Oklahoma (-40.5) vs Missouri State – 7 PM ET, PPV
Louisville (-11.5) vs Western Kentucky – 8 PM ET, ACC Network

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Thursday, September 10th

UAB (1-0) @ #19 Miami

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Miami -14

UAB is a really good team that comes into 2020 as the clear favorites to win Conference-USA. The Blazers’ week one affair vs Central Arkansas was not as close as the ten-point final difference indicated, however, letting up 35 to an FCS team, even a good one like UCA, is inexcusable. Miami lost to a pair of Conference USA teams last year, but the ‘Canes bring in Houston transfer D’Eriq King for the 2020 year, and the offense should be much improved from 2019’s down year. This will be close for the first half, but Miami will end up winning by two touchdowns.

CSD Pick: Miami 30, UAB 17

Saturday, September 12th

Syracuse @ #12 North Carolina

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: North Carolina -22.5

The first P5 vs P5 matchup of 2020 comes out of the ACC, as offseason hype train machine North Carolina hosts Syracuse. I will admit, I am 100% on the Mack Brown bandwagon. This team, led by awesome QB Sam Howell, has a lot of potential. I think they could contend with Clemson for an ACC title.

Now, there is talent on this Syracuse team, especially in the secondary, but the offensive line struggled last year, and UNC should dominate the Orange in the trenches. Give me UNC at home.

CSD Pick: North Carolina 41, Syracuse 25

Louisiana @ #15 Iowa State

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Iowa State -11.5

The game of the week for week two will kick off at noon in Ames, as Louisiana takes on Iowa State in a battle of two dark horses in their respective conferences. ULL was overshadowed by Appalachian State last season, but the Ragin’ Cajuns were awesome under star coach Billy Napier. Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell make up one of the best 1-2 rushing attacks in the country, and the defense is excellent. The Cajuns are a legit borderline top 25 team, and they will keep this one a lot tighter than many think. I just think Brock Purdy is too good.

It’s a been a journey for Purdy over his career at ISU, but it will end with him being a legit top-five quarterback in the sport. The Cyclones also return much of an awesome secondary, and I think they’ll get the win here, but ISU has struggled with lower-rated teams in the non-conference before, and ULL is legit. This will be close and is the only true “must-watch” game of the day.

CSD Pick: Iowa State 34, Louisiana 26

Charlotte @ #21 Appalachian State

12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -17

Appalachian State, the highest-ranked team out of 2020’s “power four” (ACC, SEC, Big 12, AAC), kicks off their campaign with a test from Will Healy’s Charlotte 49ers. Healey is a rising star on the coaching scene, and the 49ers have already improved under his watch; I expect them to take another step forward this year. NIU transfer RB Tre Harbison is a name to watch, and the defense is solid, but…

Charlotte is a team on the upswing; App State is a machine. One of the most consistent G5 programs over the past few years, the Mountaineers have won back-to-back Sun Belt titles and are coming off of one of their best years ever. QB Zac Thomas is back after a deadly accurate 2019, and the defense is great. The Mountaineers should kick off new coach Shawn Clark’s tenure with a win, but it will be a little lower scoring than last year’s 56-41 affair thanks to both team’s defenses improving.

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 40, Charlotte 20

Arkansas State (0-1) @ Kansas State

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Kansas State -10

Arkansas State looked solid in last week’s 37-24 loss to Memphis, easily covering a 19 point spread against a Tiger team that should threaten for New year’s Six bowl territory. As I predicted, Logan Bonner started the game, and also as I predicted, backup Layne Hatcher came in and was significantly better, throwing for more yards on fewer attempts, and never turning the ball over, while Bonner turned it over twice.

The Memphis matchup was a good one for ASU, the Tigers let Arkansas State play their game, something Chris Klieman’s Kansas State Wildcats will almost certainly not do. Expect K-State slow down the tempo in this one and never let the Red Wolves get comfortable.

This is a bit of a petty pick; I’ve been pounding the Hatcher train all offseason, but the fact that Arkansas State is being stubborn and continuing to use a two-quarterback system makes me not only want to take Kansas State but also lay the points.

CSD Pick: Kansas State 35, Arkansas State 20

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Kansas State -10

Eastern Kentucky (0-1) @ West Virginia
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: West Virginia -40.5

CSD Pick: West Virginia 38, Eastern Kentucky 7

UL Monroe @ Army (1-0)
1:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -19

CSD Pick: Army 38, UL Monroe 19

Duke @ #7 Notre Dame

2:30 PM ET, NBC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -20

Clemson transfer QB Chase Brice gets thrown into the deep end with a week one road test against the excellent Notre Dame defense. Duke should be all right this year, but the talent gap is massive, and I don’t see much else that’s changed since the Fighting Irish’s 38-7 win over the Blue Devils last year. Ian Book will make plays with his arm and feet again, and the Irish should roll in their ACC debut.

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 37, Duke 13

Georgia Tech @ Florida State

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Florida State -12.5

I’ve made no bones about it, I’m high on this Florida State team, and facing a Georgia Tech team that still is incredibly miscast, I don’t have a lot of worries. James Blackman should step up to the next level this year after being solid the past few seasons. This game will have none of the drama of the crazy 2016 upset. Mike Norvell will get his first win with the Noles, and FSU fans around the country will breathe a sigh of relief.

CSD Pick: Florida State 30, Georgia Tech 15

UTSA @ Texas State (0-1)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Texas State -8

CSD Pick: Texas State 25, UTSA 21

Campbell @ Georgia Southern
3:30 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -34.5

Campbell quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams is up there with the best FCS players playing this fall. Williams led the team in both rushing and passing last year, and the Camels’ rushing attack gave their rivals fits last year. Georgia Southern will win -Campbell has almost no defense to speak of and Georgia Southern QB Shai Wertz is next-level good- but Williams is good enough to keep the Camels in this game. I think they’ll cover.

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 38, Campbell 12

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Campbell +34.5

Austin Peay @ Pittsburgh
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh -27

CSD Pick: Pittsburgh 35, Austin Peay 9

Missouri State @ #4 Oklahoma
7 PM ET, PPV
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -40.5

In 1,000 simulations of this game on the CSD Prime computer model, Missouri State averaged one point. One. Spencer Rattler will be out to prove he’s as good as the hype, and the Sooners will destroy the 40.5 point spread.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 64, Missouri State 1

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Oklahoma -40.5

The Citadel @ USF
7 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: USF -20

CSD Pick: USF 32, The Citadel 16

#1 Clemson @ Wake Forest

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -33

College Gameday will be in town in Winston Salem as Wake Forest looks to get their revenge for a 52-3 loss to 2019 ACC champs Clemson last year. Wake loses a lot, including QB Jamie Newman and WR Sage Surratt, from that team, but there is some talent, including awesome edge rusher Carlos Basham and LB Ja’Cquez Williams. However, the talent gap is just too big. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne will light up the scoreboard, and the Tigers should roll.

CSD Pick: Clemson 47, Wake Forest 19

Tulane @ South Alabama (1-0)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Tulane -8

CSD Pick: Tulane 34, South Alabama 23

UTEP (1-0) @ #10 Texas
8 PM ET, Longhorn Network
Vegas Line: Texas -43

CSD Pick: Texas 54, UTEP 4

Western Kentucky @ #20 Louisville

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Louisville -11.5

In a day filled with very good G5 teams taking on P5 competition, WKU-Louisville will be the nightcap. The Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky are co-favorites in Conference USA’s East division with Marshall, but they run into a Louisville team that was way ahead of schedule last year, at least on offense.

This will be a clash of styles, but UL’s offense, powered by stud QB Micale Cunningham, should be able to score even on what is a very good WKU defense, and I don’t have faith in Western Kentucky’s offense to keep pace on their end. Give me Louisville minus the points.

CSD Pick: Louisville 37, Western Kentucky 20

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Louisville -11.5

Houston Baptist (0-1) @ Texas Tech
8 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Texas Tech -39.5

CSD Pick: Texas Tech 53, Houston Baptist 12

Coastal Carolina @ Kansas
10 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Kansas -7

CSD Pick: Kansas 28, Coastal Carolina 22