Below are my predictions for UFC 195, live on PPV. The records included are the fighters record IN UFC, not counting other professional fighting experience.
PRELIMS
Bantamweight – #8 Michael McDonald (5-2) vs Masanori Kanehara (1-1) The Pick: McDonald via KO
Welterweight – Kyle Noke (6-3) vs Alex Morono (0-0) The Pick: Noke via TKO
Women’s Strawweight – Justine Kish (0-0) vs Nina Ansaroff (0-1) The Pick: Kish via Submission
Lightweight – Scott Holtzman (1-0) vs Drew Dober (1-3) The Pick: Holtzman via Submission
Lightweight – #12 Dustin Poirier (10-3) vs Joesph Duffy (2-0) The Pick: Duffy via Submission
Bantamweight – Joe Soto (0-2) vs Michinori Tanaka (1-1) The Pick: Tanaka via Decision
Welterweight – Sheldon Wescott (0-2) vs Edgar Garcia (0-1) The Pick: Garcia via TKO
MAIN CARD
Lightweight – Abel Trujillo (3-3) vs Tony Sims (1-1)
This match was on the Prelims until an injury to Kelvin Gastelum forced his fight to be cancelled, therefore these two get a chance to shine on the main card. However, it’s matchups like this that aren’t given much respect that end up shining. This should be a good fight and Sims has never been knocked out or suffered a TKO, but the Trujillo’s dangerous knees in the clinch will be the deciding factor.
The Pick: Trujillo via TKO
Featherweight – Diego Brandao (6-3) vs Brian Ortega (1-0)
Brandao plays dangerous. Diego Brandao is the type of fighter that comes out swinging, and is great at getting that early round KO, but if the fight goes too long he burns himself out. Ortega is a up and comer that is 9-0 professionally. Ortega will have the advantage on the ground as long as he can avoid Brandao’s lightning fast submissions. This should be a fantastic fight.
The Pick: Ortega via TKO
Welterweight – Lorenz Larkin (3-4) vs Albert Tumenov (4-1)
Larkin comes into this fight on the heels of back to back TKO wins over Santiago Ponzinibbio and John Howard. Tumenov is also riding a winning streak of 4 fights after he lost his debut fight in UFC. This will be a slugfest and should be far from boring, however I have the Russian pulling out #5 in a row and continuing to climb the ranks of the welterweight division
The Pick: Tumenov via KO
Heavyweight – #3 Stipe Miocic (7-2) vs #2 Andrei Arlovski (14-4)
At UFC 196 Heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum faces off against #1 contender Cain Velasquez for a 2nd time, to find the next challenger to the belt #2 will face #3 here at 195. Arlovski is 4-0 since returning to the UFC after 6 years, 3 months, and 13 days gone. However this is where the comeback story ends, Miocic defeated Mark Hunt, a previously unstoppable force, I don’t see Arlovski stopping that.
The Pick: Miocic via TKO
UFC Welterweight Championship – (C) Robbie Lawler (11-4) vs #4 Carlos Condit (7-4)
The Main Event, for the UFC Welterweight Title. This is going to be a brutal fight, and very well an instant classic as both men are highly skilled strikers. At UFC 189 Rory MacDonald looked to have Lawler beat, obviously that didn’t end up happening but Lawler is a vulnerable champion, I just don’t think Carlos Condit is the man to do it.
The Pick: Lawler via Decision
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