Category: FOOTBALL

This week’s schedule is headlined by a Black Friday showdown between #2 Notre Dame and #19 North Carolina and the Iron Bowl on Saturday: #22 Auburn vs #1 Alabama. Also on the docket:

• #13 Iowa State and #17 Texas square off in a game with major Big 12 title implications
• Can 0-5 Penn State finally get a win @ Michigan?
• #6 Florida, #5 Texas A&M, and #9 Georgia face tough SEC tests heading into the season’s end
• #3 Clemson is hoping to avoid an upset vs Pitt

All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 294-99 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 38-31-2 (55%)
ATS Total: 185-177-31 (51%)

Best Bets

#12 Indiana (-10.5) vs Maryland – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
Toledo (-9) vs Ball State – 12 PM ET, ESPN3
#22 Auburn (+26) @ #1 Alabama – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Pitt (+26) @ #3 Clemson – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
#8 Northwestern (-10.5) @ Michigan State – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2

Thursday, November 26th

Colorado State (1-2, 1-2 MW) @ Air Force (2-2, 1-2 MW) — CANCELED
2 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Air Force -7.5

CSD Pick: Air Force 31, Colorado State 23

New Mexico (0-4, 0-4 MW) @ Utah State (0-4, 0-4 MW)
7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: New Mexico -4.5

CSD Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah State 23

Friday, November 27th

#13 Iowa State (6-2, 6-1 Big 12) @ #17 Texas (5-2, 4-2 Big 12)

12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Texas -2.5

These two teams may be out of the national title hunt, but this game still has huge implications for the Big 12 title scene. A Texas win will complicate things greatly, leaving four teams tied with two Big 12 losses, while an ISU victory means we are likely headed for an Iowa State-Oklahoma final.

I like this Iowa State team a lot, the offense is among the best in the conference, but the Cyclones are on the road here, and the Texas defense has been improving in recent weeks. I expect the Longhorns to do enough to slow down Breece Hall, and for UT to throw a wrench in the Cyclones’ Big 12 aspirations.

CSD Pick: Texas 30, Iowa State 28

UMass (0-3) @ Liberty (8-1)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -37.5

CSD Pick: Liberty 46, UMass 11

Nebraska (1-3 Big Ten) @ #24 Iowa (3-2 Big Ten)
1 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Iowa -14.5

CSD Pick: Iowa 32, Nebraska 16

#2 Notre Dame (8-0, 7-0 ACC) @ #19 North Carolina (6-2, 6-2 ACC)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -4

The game of the week for week 13 comes from the ACC, as Notre Dame, fresh off a #2 placement in the first CFP playoff rankings, travels to face their toughest test left in the regular season: North Carolina.

The Tar Heels can put up points. No one outside of Clemson has an offense at the level of UNC among Notre Dame’s opponents this year. Sam Howell is the most efficient QB in the conference, and the run game is stout. That being said, the Tar Heel defense is light, to put in nicely. UNC let up over 240 rushing yards to Florida State, they got outplayed from start to finish against Virginia (210 rushing yards) and throttled by VT in a close win (260 rushing yards). The Irish will run all over UNC, and while Sam Howell will keep up his end, the defense will break one too many times.

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 40, North Carolina 36

UCF (5-3, 4-3 AAC) @ USF (1-7, 0-6 AAC)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: UCF -25

CSD Pick: UCF 43, USF 19

Wyoming (1-2, 1-2 MW) @ UNLV (0-4, 0-4 MW)
4 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Wyoming -13.5

CSD Pick: Wyoming 31, UNLV 16

Stanford (0-2 Pac-12) @ California (0-2 Pac-12)
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: California -1

CSD Pick: California 24, Stanford 21

Central Michigan (2-1 MAC) @ Eastern Michigan (0-3 MAC)
4 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Central Michigan -4.5

CSD Pick: Central Michigan 34, Eastern Michigan 29

#15 Oregon (3-0 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (1-2 Pac-12)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oregon -16.5

CSD Pick: Oregon 36, Oregon State 24

Saturday, November 28th

#4 Ohio State (4-0 Big Ten) @ Illinois (2-3 Big Ten) – CANCELED
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Ohio State -29

CSD Pick: Ohio State 47, Illinois 17

Kentucky (3-5 SEC) @ #6 Florida (6-1 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -24

Kentucky is better than the 63-3 loss they were handed by Alabama last weekend, but they are not good enough to beat a national title contender like Florida on the road. The Gators’ offense, led by Kyle Trask, may be the best in the country. Expect UF to dominate this one from start to finish.

CSD Pick: Florida 43, Kentucky 21

Maryland (2-1 Big Ten) @ #12 Indiana (4-1 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Indiana -10.5

Who would have thought this would be a game for #2 in the Big Ten East? Not me, that’s for sure. Maryland is coming off of a two-week quarantine due to COVID, and now have to go on the road to take on an Indiana team that is fresh off of taking Ohio State to the limit. 10.5 points is too short of a line.

CSD Pick: Indiana 38, Maryland 19

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Indiana -10.5

Texas Tech (3-5, 2-5 Big 12) @ #23 Oklahoma State (5-2, 4-2 Big 12)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -11

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 21

Penn State (0-5 Big Ten) @ Michigan (2-3 Big Ten)

12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Michigan -4

Aptly nicknamed the “Sickos Game of the Week”, these two underperforming Big Ten programs will square off on national TV for all to see. Both of these squads are reeling, but at least Michigan has won this year, plus, the Wolverines are at home. Backup QB Cade McNamara looked solid against Rutgers last week, and he will lead Michigan to a win to drop Penn State to 0-6.

CSD Pick: Michigan 28, Penn State 25

Northern Illinois (0-3 MAC) @ Western Michigan (3-0 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Western Michigan -17.5

CSD Pick: Western Michigan 40, Northern Illinois 21

Bowling Green (0-3 MAC) @ Ohio (1-1 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Ohio -24.5

CSD Pick: Ohio 44, Bowling Green 17

Kent State (3-0 MAC) @ Buffalo (3-0 MAC)
12 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -9

CSD Pick: Buffalo 42, Kent State 32

Ball State (2-1 MAC) @ Toledo (2-1 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Toledo -9

Ball State has been the beneficiary of a very easy schedule so far. I’ll stick with the much more talented team at home laying nine. Give me Toledo, assuming QB Eli Peters is available to play.

CSD Pick: Toledo 37, Ball State 24

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Toledo -9

SMU (7-2, 4-2 AAC) @ East Carolina (2-6, 2-5 AAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: SMU -10.5

CSD Pick: SMU 39, East Carolina 29

Georgia Southern (6-3, 4-2 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (4-4, 2-4 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Georgia State -1

CSD Pick: Georgia State 27, Georgia Southern 26

NC State (6-3, 5-3 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-8, 1-7 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: NC State -14.5

CSD Pick: NC State 34, Syracuse 17

Vanderbilt (0-7 SEC) @ Missouri (3-3 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt -16.5

CSD Pick: Missouri 32, Vanderbilt 18

UTEP (3-4, 0-3 C-USA) @ Rice (1-2, 1-2 C-USA) – CANCELED
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Rice -8

CSD Pick: Rice 24, UTEP 19

Miami OH (1-1 MAC) @ Akon (0-3 MAC)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Miami OH -13.5

CSD Pick: Miami OH 27, Akron 14

#20 Coastal Carolina (8-0, 6-0 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (2-9, 2-5 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -16

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 43, Texas State 19

Louisiana (7-1, 5-1 Sun Belt) @ UL Monroe (0-8, 0-5 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Louisiana -25.5

CSD Pick: Louisiana 42, UL Monroe 11

North Texas (3-3, 2-2 C-USA) @ UTSA (6-4, 4-2 C-USA)
3 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: UTSA -5

CSD Pick: UTSA 36, North Texas 33

South Alabama (3-6, 2-4 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State (3-6, 1-5 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -7

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 32, South Alabama 24

#22 Auburn (5-2 SEC) @ #1 Alabama (7-0 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama -26

Alabama head coach Nick Saban will miss this game after testing positive for COVID. Will that be the difference between a win and a loss? Probably not, but it might be enough for a solid Auburn team to keep this one tighter than the 26 point spread. Bo Nix has been improving in recent weeks, and while Alabama will roll, they won’t quite cover.

CSD Pick: Alabama 44, Auburn 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Auburn +26

Pitt (5-4, 4-4 ACC) @ #3 Clemson (7-1, 6-1 ACC)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -26

Pitt has been one of the most up-and-down teams in the nation this year, and following their blowout win against Virginia Tech last week, I’m up on them again! The Panthers have been a top-five team in the ACC since the return of Kenny Pickett, and while Clemson will pick up a commanding win in Trevor Lawrence’s return, it won’t be by the 26-point margin the experts set the odds at.

CSD Pick: Clemson 39, Pitt 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Pitt +26

#8 Northwestern (5-0 Big Ten) @ Michigan State (1-3 Big Ten)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Northwestern -10.5

Northwestern is legit. The game against Wisconsin last Saturday wasn’t pretty, but the Wildcats got the job done in a 17-7 win. I trust NU to avoid being caught sleeping, even on the road, and for the Wildcats to cover the 10.5 point spread against a bad Michigan State team.

CSD Pick: Northwestern 29, Michigan State 11

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Northwestern -10.5

Florida Atlantic (5-1, 4-1 C-USA) @ Middle Tennessee (3-6, 2-4 C-USA) – CANCELED
3:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -6.5

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 27, Middle Tennessee 19

Troy (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (6-2, 4-1 Sun Belt)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -16.5

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 36, Troy 21

San Jose State (4-0, 4-0 MW) @ Boise State (4-1, 4-0 MW) – CANCELED
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Boise State -11.5

CSD Pick: Boise State 35, San Jose State 24

Mississippi State (2-5 SEC) @ Ole Miss (3-4 SEC)
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Ole Miss -10

CSD Pick: Ole Miss 35, Mississippi State 28

Rutgers (1-4 Big Ten) @ Purdue (2-2 Big Ten)
4 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Purdue -10.5

CSD Pick: Purdue 34, Rutgers 21

Louisville (3-6, 2-6 ACC) @ Boston College (5-4, 4-4 ACC)

4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Louisville -1

This should be one of the closer games of the day. Boston College has been one of the bigger surprises of the season. The offense is soli and the defense can force turnovers. Against a Louisville team that has taken a big step back this year, I expect the Golden Eagles to improve to 6-4, something that would have stunned me before the season.

CSD Pick: Boston College 30, Louisville 28

San Diego State (3-2) @ Colorado (2-0)
5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network
Vegas Line: Colorado -3

CSD Pick: Colorado 31, San Diego State 29

LSU (3-3 SEC) @ #5 Texas A&M (5-1 SEC)

7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -14

Texas A&M seems to be in a decent position to capitalize if anyone in the top four slips up, but they have to avoid slipping up themselves. LSU is probably better than most people give them credit for, but on the road, I just can’t see them keeping up with A&M’s high powered offense. I expect the Aggies to improve to 6-1, as they now just sit and hope for some chaos in front of them.

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 38, LSU 25

Duke (2-6, 1-6 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (2-5, 2-4 ACC)
7 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Georgia Tech 26, Duke 24

Kansas State (4-4, 4-3 Big 12) @ Baylor (1-5, 1-5 Big 12)
7 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Baylor -4.5

CSD Pick: Baylor 26, Kansas State 20

Memphis (5-2, 3-2 AAC) @ Navy (3-4, 3-2 AAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Memphis -11.5

CSD Pick: Memphis 41, Navy 31

#9 Georgia (5-2 SEC) @ South Carolina (2-6 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -18.5

Georgia was one of the bigger surprises of the first CFP rankings. The Bulldogs seem likely to control their own destiny to a New Year’s Six bowl. They need to get through South Carolina on the road first, though. The Gamecocks struggled in their first game post-Will Muschamp, and Georgia looked great with QB JT Daniels at the helm. I don’t expect an upset.

CSD Pick: Georgia 31, South Carolina 16

Utah (0-1 Pac-12) @ Washington (2-0 Pac-12)
7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Washington -7

CSD Pick: Washington 32, Utah 25

TCU (3-4, 3-4 Big 12) @ Kansas (0-7, 0-6 Big 12)
8 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: TCU -24.5

CSD Pick: TCU 32, Kansas 11

Virginia (4-4, 3-4 ACC) @ Florida State (2-6, 1-6 ACC) – CANCELED
8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia -9.5

CSD Pick: Virginia 34, Florida State 24

Arizona (0-2 Pac-12) @ UCLA (1-2 Pac-12)
8 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: UCLA -9

CSD Pick: UCLA 36, Arizona 23

Nevada (5-0, 5-0 MW) @ Hawai’i (2-3, 2-3 MW)
11 PM ET, Spectrum
Vegas Line: Nevada -7

CSD Pick: Nevada 35, Hawai’i 28

Tuesday, December 1st

Western Kentucky (4-6, 3-3 C-USA) @ Charlotte (2-3, 2-1 C-USA)
10:30 AM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Charlotte 25, Western Kentucky 23

These projections are NOT if the season ended today, they are projected ahead to the end of the season

GoodYear Cotton Bowl Classic

December 30th, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN
Arlington, TX
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M

After blowing out Oklahoma State on Saturday, the Sooners look to be on a glide path to the Big 12 title and the New Year’s Six spot that comes with it. I have them facing Texas A&M. The Aggies may lose another game, Auburn and LSU remain on the schedule, but even then a NY6 spot seems likely

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

January 1st, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN
Atlanta, GA
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Northwestern vs. Georgia

Northwestern and Georgia both should have no trouble bowling through the rest of their regular-season schedule, with Northwestern having a shot to make the playoff if the Wildcats can knock off Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

January 2nd, 4 PM ET, ESPN
Glendale, AZ
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: BYU vs. USC

After Oregon’s rough performance on Saturday, I am changing my Pac-12 champion projection to USC. The Trojans will take on BYU here, a team that is all but certain to finish unbeaten, with just a game against SDSU remaining.

Capital One Orange Bowl

January 2nd, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
ACC vs. Big Ten or SEC
Bowl Projection: Notre Dame vs. Florida

This is the only NY6 game this year with tie-ins, as an ACC team must face a team from the Big Ten or SEC. The loser of the ACC Title game will likely slot in here, as will the loser of the SEC Title game, barring either making the playoff.

Rose Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 5 PM ET, ESPN
Pasadena, CA
CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs. Clemson

Both of these teams will be significant favorites in each of their remaining games before facing tough competition in their respective title games. I do, however, expect each to get through unscathed.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
New Orleans, LA
CFP vs. CFP
Projection: Alabama vs. Cincinnati

For Cincinnati to make the playoff, a lot needs to happen: Notre Dame needs to lose twice (or Clemson needs to lose once), Alabama needs to beat Florida, the Pac-12 champ needs to have a loss, and Texas A&M needs to lose a game. It is starting to feel not as far-fetched as it once did for the Bearcats to crash the CFP party.

College Football Playoff National Championship

January 11th, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama

A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season,. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.

Rank	Team	Conf	RATING	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	30.41	0	0
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	27.18	0	0
3	Florida	SEC	23.29	1	4
4	Clemson	ACC	20.88	2	-1
5	Notre Dame	ACC	20.76	3	9
6	Oklahoma	Big 12	20.46	3	-1
7	Wisconsin	Big Ten	20.45	-4	5
8	Texas A&M	SEC	19.27	-1	0
9	Iowa	Big Ten	18.60	8	23
10	Cincinnati	AAC	17.42	2	10
11	Georgia	SEC	16.94	-6	-7
12	Southern California	Pac-12	16.18	2	3
13	Indiana	Big Ten	15.01	0	24
14	Northwestern	Big Ten	13.86	10	38
15	North Carolina	ACC	13.42	5	2
16	Arizona State	Pac-12	13.38	-1	15
17	Brigham Young	Ind	13.32	1	34
18	Auburn	SEC	13.01	-7	-8
19	Iowa State	Big 12	12.13	7	2
20	West Virginia	Big 12	11.94	3	33
21	Oregon	Pac-12	11.78	-11	-8
22	Missouri	SEC	11.50	-3	34
23	Pittsburgh	ACC	11.38	13	15
24	Texas	Big 12	11.18	-2	-13
25	Louisiana State	SEC	10.58	3	-16
26	Miami (FL)	ACC	10.50	1	4
27	UCLA	Pac-12	9.68	20	33
28	Washington	Pac-12	9.68	2	1
29	Michigan	Big Ten	9.16	-4	-11
30	Wake Forest	ACC	8.97	1	25
31	Oklahoma State	Big 12	8.89	-10	-15
32	Central Florida	AAC	8.67	5	-9
33	Tennessee	SEC	8.53	12	-11
34	Penn State	Big Ten	8.13	-18	-28
35	Arkansas	SEC	8.03	-6	43
36	Louisville	ACC	7.77	3	-11
37	Virginia	ACC	7.48	4	4
38	Boston College	ACC	7.30	0	26
39	South Carolina	SEC	6.79	-5	5
40	Kentucky	SEC	6.64	-8	-13
41	Mississippi	SEC	6.55	-1	-6
42	Virginia Tech	ACC	6.53	-7	-23
43	Baylor	Big 12	6.05	-1	-9
44	Texas Christian	Big 12	5.57	-1	-5
45	Purdue	Big Ten	4.92	4	0
46	Illinois	Big Ten	3.93	27	8
47	Utah	Pac-12	3.90	-3	-4
48	Tulsa	AAC	3.34	8	44
49	Marshall	CUSA	2.93	9	28
50	Texas Tech	Big 12	2.46	1	9
51	California	Pac-12	2.41	1	-15
52	Nebraska	Big Ten	2.37	-19	-19
53	Kansas State	Big 12	2.25	-7	-7
54	Southern Methodist	AAC	2.10	6	-7
55	North Carolina State	ACC	1.72	-7	2
56	Stanford	Pac-12	1.70	-3	-8
57	Minnesota	Big Ten	1.64	-7	-33
58	Mississippi State	SEC	1.61	9	-9
59	Houston	AAC	1.38	-5	-1
60	Washington State	Pac-12	1.27	-5	8
61	Tulane	AAC	0.85	-4	12
62	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	0.76	9	-22
63	Buffalo	MAC	0.72	1	8
64	Maryland	Big Ten	0.70	-2	19
65	Boise State	MWC	0.43	0	-23
66	Duke	ACC	0.38	-5	0
67	Memphis	AAC	-0.05	-1	-41
68	Georgia Tech	ACC	-0.34	-9	-1
69	Florida State	ACC	-0.60	-6	-41
70	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-1.01	-1	-20
71	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	-1.54	4	42
72	Liberty	Ind	-1.82	8	47
73	Oregon State	Pac-12	-2.54	-5	-11
74	San Diego State	MWC	-3.17	8	7
75	Colorado	Pac-12	-3.17	3	24
76	Arizona	Pac-12	-3.24	-4	0
77	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-3.77	2	-16
78	Michigan State	Big Ten	-3.78	-8	-15
79	Vanderbilt	SEC	-4.20	-2	18
80	Toledo	MAC	-4.24	5	5
81	Nevada	MWC	-4.33	-5	-2
82	Air Force	MWC	-4.44	-8	-13
83	East Carolina	AAC	-4.47	12	13
84	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-5.42	9	10
85	Wyoming	MWC	-5.74	-2	-13
86	Navy	AAC	-5.78	-5	-21
87	Western Michigan	MAC	-6.82	14	21
88	Fresno State	MWC	-7.14	-1	10
89	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-7.57	20	15
90	Charlotte	CUSA	-8.50	-1	1
91	Rutgers	Big Ten	-8.64	1	10
92	San Jose State	MWC	-8.76	5	20
93	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-8.86	-2	-3
94	Colorado State	MWC	-9.18	-6	-5
95	Ohio	MAC	-9.91	5	-7
96	Central Michigan	MAC	-10.51	-12	-9
97	Hawaii	MWC	-10.72	6	3
98	South Florida	AAC	-11.13	-2	-5
99	Kent State	MAC	-11.29	13	10
100	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-11.60	13	-20
101	Miami (OH)	MAC	-11.79	3	-15
102	Army	Ind	-11.85	-4	5
103	North Texas	CUSA	-12.25	4	15
104	Rice	CUSA	-12.42	1	2
105	New Mexico	MWC	-13.05	6	12
106	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-13.21	14	-4
107	Ball State	MAC	-13.51	-8	-12
108	Troy	Sun Belt	-13.87	-14	-3
109	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-13.98	-7	-39
110	Syracuse	ACC	-14.22	-20	-36
111	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-14.58	-3	3
112	Texas State	Sun Belt	-14.59	-6	12
113	Temple	AAC	-15.05	-27	-38
114	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-15.41	0	-30
115	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-16.57	-5	0
116	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-16.97	2	-34
117	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-17.31	-2	6
118	Kansas	Big 12	-18.22	-2	-8
119	Northern Illinois	MAC	-18.92	4	3
120	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-19.15	-3	7
121	Utah State	MWC	-19.71	-2	-18
122	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-19.83	-1	-6
123	Akron	MAC	-21.64	-1	-2
124	Florida International	CUSA	-22.87	0	-13
125	Massachusetts	Ind	-26.61	1	1
126	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-26.64	-1	-6
127	Bowling Green State	MAC	-27.17	0	-2

A pair of potential Big Ten division title games take center stage as #9 Indiana faces #3 Ohio State and #10 Wisconsin takes on #19 Northwestern. Also on the slate:

• 0-4 Penn State looks to get their first win of the year hosting Iowa
• #7 Cincinnati hopes to keep their playoff hopes alive @ UCF
• LSU takes on Arkansas in an SEC West battle
• #1 Alabama, which has had the last two weeks off, hopes to avoid being caught sleeping against Kentucky
• We’ll see what a Will Muschamp-less South Carolina looks like against Missouri
• Virginia Tech takes on Pitt in a classic ACC Coastal battle (even though there is no Coastal this year)
• BEDLAM in primetime: #14 Oklahoma State @ #18 Oklahoma

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 262-88 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 34-28-1 (55%)
ATS Total: 160-163-27 (50%)

Best Bets

Akron (+27) @ Kent State – Tuesday, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Central Michigan (-1) vs Western Michigan – Wednesday, 7 PM ET, ESPN2
Minnesota (+3) vs Purdue – Friday, 7:30 PM ET, BTN
Illinois (+15) @ Nebraska – 12 PM ET, FS1
Georgia Southern (+5) @ Army – 12 PM ET, CBSSN
#7 Cincinnati (-3) @ UCF – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Nevada (+2) vs San Diego State – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Michigan (-7.5) @ Rutgers – 7:30 PM ET, BTN

All projected scores are based off of 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model, which is why the scores may look a little funky

Tuesday, November 17th

Buffalo (2-0 MAC) @ Bowling Green (0-2 MAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -30

CSD Pick: Buffalo 40, Bowling Green 16

Akron (0-2 MAC) @ Kent State (2-0 MAC)
8 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Kent State -27

Akron is one of the worst teams in college football, but Kent State probably shouldn’t be a four touchdown favorite against anybody. The Golden Flashes went 2-10 just two short years ago, and I see Akron covering this monstrous spread on the road.

CSD Pick: Kent State 33, Akron 20

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Akron +27

Wednesday, November 18th

Northern Illinois (0-2 MAC) @ Ball State (1-1 MAC)
7 PM ET, ESPNews
Vegas Line: Ball State -9.5

CSD Pick: Ball State 35, Northern Illinois 22

Toledo (1-1 MAC) @ Eastern Michigan (2-0 MAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Toledo -7.5

CSD Pick: Toledo 30, Eastern Michigan 25

Western Michigan (2-0 MAC) @ Central Michigan (2-0 MAC)
7 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Central Michigan -1

Two of the last unbeaten teams remaining in college football will square off Wednesday night in what may be a de facto MAC West title game. I like the CMU defense as the best unit on the field, with the home edge, to power the Chippewas to a win.

CSD Pick: Central Michigan 34, Western Michigan 29

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Central Michigan -1

Thursday, November 19th

Tulane (5-4, 2-4 AAC) @ #25 Tulsa (4-1, 4-0 AAC)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Tulsa -6.5

CSD Pick: Tulsa 31, Tulane 27

Friday, November 20th

Syracuse (1-7, 1-6 ACC) @ Louisville (2-6, 1-6 ACC)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Louisville -17

CSD Pick: Louisville 38, Syracuse 18

Purdue (2-1 Big Ten) @ Minnesota (1-3 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Purdue -3

Purdue’s two wins this year have been by a combined 11 points against Iowa and Illinois, I actually think that the wrong team is favored in this one. The Boilermakers’ run defense is suspect at best, and Mo Ibrahim is up there with the best backs in the country. Give me Minnesota outright.

CSD Pick: Minnesota 29, Purdue 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Minnesota +3

UMass (0-2) @ Florida Atlantic (4-1)
8 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -30

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 37, UMass 15

New Mexico (0-3, 0-3 MW) @ Air Force (1-2, 0-2 MW)
9:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Air Force -7.5

CSD Pick: Air Force 33, New Mexico 22

Saturday, November 21st

#9 Indiana (4-0 Big Ten) @ #3 Ohio State (3-0 Big Ten)

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Ohio State -19.5

It has been a nice year for Indiana. A 4-0 start including wins against Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State has led to a top-ten ranking for the Hoosiers, but Indiana will run into a tough test, with a road affair against #3 Ohio State. I like Indiana QB Michael Penix, but he’s not Justin Fields. Unfortunately for IU fans, I expect OSU to jump out to a big lead early and never look back. Give me the Buckeyes, big.

CSD Pick: Ohio State 39, Indiana 23

#4 Clemson (7-1, 6-1 ACC) @ Florida State (2-6, 1-6 ACC) – CANCELED
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -33

CSD Pick: Clemson 43, Florida State 18

#6 Florida (5-1 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-6 SEC)
12 PM ET, ABC (was ESPN)
Vegas Line: Florida -30.5

CSD Pick: Florida 45, Vanderbilt 16

Appalachian State (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) @ #15 Coastal Carolina (7-0, 5-0 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN (was ESPN2)
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -4

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 31, Appalachian State 28

Stephen F. Austin (6-3) @ Memphis (4-2)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Memphis -28.5

CSD Pick: Memphis 53, Stephen F. Austin 6

Illinois (1-3 Big Ten) @ Nebraska (1-2 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Nebraska -15

Illinois looked solid last week in an upset win over a decent Rutgers team. The Illini can’t throw the ball to save their lives, but the run game looked amazing, and they should be able to keep within 15 of a fledgling Nebraska team.

CSD Pick: Nebraska 31, Illinois 21

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Illinois +15

East Carolina (1-6, 1-5 AAC) @ Temple (1-5, 1-5 AAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Temple -2

CSD Pick: Temple 27, East Carolina 23

Georgia Southern (6-2) @ Army (6-2)
12 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -5

The wrong team is favored here. Both of these teams run the option well, they both have similarly rated defenses, the only difference is that Georgia Southern can actually throw the ball with QB Shai Werts. That flexibility leads me to pick Georgia Southern straight up.

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 25, Army 24

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Georgia Southern +5

LSU (2-3 SEC) @ Arkansas (3-4 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Arkansas -1

These are both good teams that would probably have winning records if they played in the Big 12 or ACC, but have struggled against extraordinarily difficult schedules. Clearly, LSU is the more talented team, but Arkansas feels a lot more well-rounded, and LSU QB Myles Brennan is likely out for the year with an injury, not to mention COVID issues that the Tigers are likely to face. I expect Feleipe Franks to get the job done and for the ‘Hogs to get to four wins – something unfathomable in the preseason.

CSD Pick: Arkansas 32, LSU 31

Arkansas State (3-5, 1-4 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (1-9, 1-5 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN2 (was ESPN3 at 2 PM ET)
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -6

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 33, Texas State 30

FIU (0-4, 0-2 C-USA) @ Western Kentucky (3-6, 2-3 C-USA)
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky -9.5

CSD Pick: Western Kentucky 25, FIU 13

Rice (1-1, 1-1 C-USA) @ North Texas (2-3, 1-2 C-USA)
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: North Texas -2

CSD Pick: North Texas 29, Rice 26

North Alabama (0-3) @ #8 BYU (8-0)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: BYU -46

CSD Pick: BYU 56, North Alabama 5

UTSA (5-4, 3-2 C-USA) @ Southern Miss (2-6, 1-3 C-USA)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: UTSA -8

CSD Pick: UTSA 29, Southern Miss 22

#7 Cincinnati (7-0, 5-0 AAC) @ UCF (5-2, 4-2 AAC)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -3

Despite the two losses, this UCF team is really good. That being said, they aren’t Cincinnati good. The Bearcats, desperate to stick their nose in the College Football Playoff discussion, have been blowing the doors off of their foes by seemingly bigger margins every week. Desmond Ridder has been excellent, especially the last four weeks, during which he has accounted for 17 touchdowns. Give me Cincy, covering the three points easily as they look to give the committee a good impression heading into the reveal of the first set of rankings on Tuesday.

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 40, UCF 34

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Cincinnati -3

#10 Wisconsin (2-0 Big Ten) @ #19 Northwestern (4-0 Big Ten)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Wisconsin -7

It has been a nice 4-0 start for Northwestern, I love the job that Pat Fitzgerald has done in Evanston, but this is still a Northwestern-style and Northwestern-caliber offense, even with Peyton Ramsey at the helm. Wisconsin has played to a borderline Alabama/Ohio State level so far this year, granted, in a two game sample size, but I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Graham Mertz and the Badgers thus far. Give me Wisconsin. Big.

CSD Pick: Wisconsin 30, Northwestern 21

UCLA (1-1 Pac-12) @ Oregon (2-0 Pac-12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Oregon -14

CSD Pick: Oregon 38, UCLA 24

Middle Tennessee (2-6) @ Troy (4-3)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Troy -12.5

CSD Pick: Troy 33, Middle Tennessee 22

Iowa (2-2 Big Ten) @ Penn State (0-4 Big Ten)

3:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Iowa -2.5

Can Penn State get a win on the board? For Nittany Lion fans, I sure hope so, but even at home, I don’t see James Franklin’s group picking up their first W of the year. The team seems unmotivated, and they run into a physical, hard-nosed Iowa team that may also just straight up be better. I’ll take the Hawkeyes to drop Penn State to 0-5.

CSD Pick: Iowa 24, Penn State 23

San Diego State (3-1, 3-1 MW) @ Nevada (4-0, 4-0 MW)
3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: San Diego State -2

Hey, the Mountain West is getting a CBS game! That’s pretty cool. I think the wrong team is favored here, and for the excellent Carson Strong to lead Nevada to 5-0, but let’s just appreciate this moment a little – the Mountain West getting on national tv without Boise State, it is a big moment for the conference, so congrats to both of these schools.

CSD Pick: Nevada 27, San Diego State 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Nevada +2

Cal (0-1 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (0-2 Pac-12)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Cal -5.5

CSD Pick: Cal 27, Oregon State 22

Kentucky (3-4 SEC) @ #1 Alabama (6-0 SEC)

4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Alabama -29.5

I like Kentucky a lot, but come on. Alabama rolls. The Tide are the best team in the country – although I would not be surprised if Notre Dame usurps them for #1 in the first College Football Playoff rankings when they are revealed on Tuesday.

CSD Pick: Alabama 45, Kentucky 19

Kansas State (4-3, 4-2 Big 12) @ #17 Iowa State (5-2, 5-1 Big 12)
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Iowa State -11

CSD Pick: Iowa State 30, Kansas State 22

Abilene Christian (1-4) @ Virginia (3-4)
4 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Virginia -35.5

CSD Pick: Virginia 40, Abilene Christian 11

Virginia Tech (4-4, 4-3 ACC) @ Pitt (4-4, 3-4 ACC)

4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -3

Both of these teams have been just shy of great seasons but have come up short in big games multiple times. I’m going to keep betting on Virginia Tech, despite the fact that it hasn’t worked out for me the past two weeks. The Hokies could easily be 7-1 right now, and even on the road, I expect the high-powered offense to be too much for Pitt to handle.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 31, Pitt 30

Tennessee (2-4 SEC) @ #23 Auburn (4-2 SEC)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Auburn -11.5

CSD Pick: Auburn 33, Tennessee 20

San Jose State (4-0, 4-0 MW) @ Fresno State (3-1, 3-1 MW) – CANCELED
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: San Jose State -2.5

CSD Pick: San Jose State 33, Fresno State 32

Mississippi State (2-4 SEC) @ #13 Georgia (4-2 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -24

CSD Pick: Georgia 33, Mississippi State 13

#14 Oklahoma State (5-1, 4-1 Big 12) @ #18 Oklahoma (5-2, 4-2 Big 12)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -9.5

Bedlam gets the primetime spot on ABC, as Oklahoma looks likely to effectively end the Big 12’s playoff hopes by handing Oklahoma State the Cowboys’ second loss of the season. I like the Oklahoma State defense, but Spencer Rattler and the OU offense has found their groove in recent weeks, and I don’t have faith in Oklahoma State, which scored just 17 last time out against West Virginia, to keep up. I’ll take the Sooners by double digits.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 36, Oklahoma State 25

#21 Liberty (8-0) @ NC State (5-3)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: NC State -3

CSD Pick: NC State 33, Liberty 30

Missouri (2-3 SEC) @ South Carolina (2-5 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Missouri -5

South Carolina has moved on from head coach Will Muschamp (Louisiana HC Billy Napier looks like the early frontrunner), and now they look to finish the season strong, beginning with a home game against Missouri. I’m not sure to expect from this one, often times you see a “dead cat bounce” when teams move on from their coach midway through the season, but South Carolina has also had to deal with some players leaving the team after the announcement. However, the energy of a coaching change, the home field advantage, and the fact that the Gamecocks are actually a very talented team leads me to pick them to pull the straight up upset here.

CSD Pick: South Carolina 26, Missouri 22

Michigan (1-3 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (1-3 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Michigan -7.5

Alright Michigan, this is your last stand. The Wolverines have beaten Rutgers by over 40 points on average the past few years, and they’re only laying 7.5 here. Against my better judgement, I’m pulling the trigger, give me the maize and blue.

CSD Pick: Michigan 34, Rutgers 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Michigan -7.5

Arizona (0-1 Pac-12) @ Washington (1-0 Pac-12)
8 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Washington -11.5

CSD Pick: Washington 32, Arizona 20

#20 USC (2-0 Pac-12) @ Utah (0-0 Pac-12)
10:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: USC -3.5

CSD Pick: USC 31, Utah 26

Washington State (1-1 Pac-12) @ Stanford (0-2 Pac-12) – CANCELED
10:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Stanford -2.5

CSD Pick: Stanford 30, Washington State 29

Boise State (3-1, 3-0 MW) @ Hawai’i (2-2, 2-2 MW)
11 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Boise State -13

CSD Pick: Boise State 37, Hawai’i 25

These projections are NOT if the season ended today, they are projected ahead to the end of the season

GoodYear Cotton Bowl Classic

December 30th, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN
Arlington, TX
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Wisconsin vs. BYU

BYU will finish the year unbeaten, and they should receive a NY6 slot for that effort. The Cougars slide in nicely against a Wisconsin team that does control their own destiny to the CFP, but it seems like a tough task to get by Ohio State.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

January 1st, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN
Atlanta, GA
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Cincinnati vs. Florida

Florida controls their own destiny to the Playoff, but I don’t see them getting through Alabama. The Gators will have to settle for the highest ranking G5 champion, which seems virtually guaranteed to be Cincinnati

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

January 2nd, 4 PM ET, ESPN
Glendale, AZ
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Indiana vs. Oklahoma

As a P5 conference, the Big 12 champ, which I still expect to be Oklahoma, will get a slot in the NY6. They’ll face Indiana, who will likely drop games to Wisconsin and Ohio State, but does have an opportunity against the Big Ten West’s #2 during the conference’s championship week.

Capital One Orange Bowl

January 2nd, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
ACC vs. Big Ten or SEC
Bowl Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

This is the only NY6 game this year with tie-ins, as an ACC team must face a team from the Big Ten or SEC. The loser of the ACC Title game will likely slot in here, as will Texas A&M, which I expect to be the second highest rated team out of the SEC.

Rose Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 5 PM ET, ESPN
Pasadena, CA
CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs. Clemson

Both of these teams will be significant favorites in each of their remaining games before facing tough competition in their respective title games. I expect each to get through unscathed.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (Semifinal)

January 1st, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
New Orleans, LA
CFP vs. CFP
Projection: Alabama vs. Oregon

Watching another week of Pac-12 football has made it very clear that Oregon is likely to go undefeated and win the conference, and I can’t see the committee leaving out an unbeaten P5 champ.

College Football Playoff National Championship

January 11th, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama

A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season,. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.

Rank	Team	Conf.	RATING	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	28.59	0	0
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	27.51	0	0
3	Wisconsin	Big Ten	22.58	1	9
4	Florida	SEC	20.38	-1	3
5	Georgia	SEC	19.48	0	-1
6	Clemson	ACC	19.24	0	-3
7	Texas A&M	SEC	19.01	0	1
8	Notre Dame	ACC	18.49	1	6
9	Oklahoma	Big 12	18.36	-1	-4
10	Oregon	Pac-12	15.26	0	3
11	Auburn	SEC	14.69	1	-1
12	Cincinnati	AAC	14.19	2	8
13	Indiana	Big Ten	13.50	6	24
14	Southern California	Pac-12	13.47	-3	1
15	Arizona State	Pac-12	13.35	0	16
16	Penn State	Big Ten	13.32	1	-10
17	Iowa	Big Ten	13.07	21	15
18	Brigham Young	Ind	12.25	0	33
19	Missouri	SEC	11.44	2	37
20	North Carolina	ACC	11.04	-7	-3
21	Oklahoma State	Big 12	11.03	1	-5
22	Texas	Big 12	10.99	1	-11
23	West Virginia	Big 12	10.77	3	30
24	Northwestern	Big Ten	10.71	18	28
25	Michigan	Big Ten	10.54	-9	-7
26	Iowa State	Big 12	10.38	-1	-5
27	Miami (FL)	ACC	9.67	3	3
28	Louisiana State	SEC	9.64	-1	-19
29	Arkansas	SEC	9.53	10	49
30	Washington	Pac-12	9.38	-6	-1
31	Wake Forest	ACC	8.79	18	24
32	Kentucky	SEC	8.66	-12	-5
33	Nebraska	Big Ten	8.39	-5	0
34	South Carolina	SEC	8.39	7	10
35	Virginia Tech	ACC	8.28	-4	-16
36	Pittsburgh	ACC	8.07	-2	2
37	Central Florida	AAC	7.53	-2	-14
38	Boston College	ACC	7.47	-2	26
39	Louisville	ACC	7.46	-2	-14
40	Mississippi	SEC	7.30	-7	-5
41	Virginia	ACC	7.22	2	0
42	Baylor	Big 12	6.32	6	-8
43	Texas Christian	Big 12	6.03	1	-4
44	Utah	Pac-12	6.00	2	-1
45	Tennessee	SEC	5.99	2	-23
46	Kansas State	Big 12	5.54	4	0
47	UCLA	Pac-12	4.32	22	13
48	North Carolina State	ACC	4.21	3	9
49	Purdue	Big Ten	3.98	-9	-4
50	Minnesota	Big Ten	3.79	-21	-26
51	Texas Tech	Big 12	3.37	1	8
52	California	Pac-12	2.52	-20	-16
53	Stanford	Pac-12	2.40	-8	-5
54	Houston	AAC	1.91	-1	4
55	Washington State	Pac-12	1.70	6	13
56	Tulsa	AAC	1.38	4	36
57	Tulane	AAC	1.24	-3	16
58	Marshall	CUSA	1.18	1	19
59	Georgia Tech	ACC	1.06	-2	8
60	Southern Methodist	AAC	0.68	-4	-13
61	Duke	ACC	0.42	1	5
62	Maryland	Big Ten	0.34	1	21
63	Florida State	ACC	0.15	4	-35
64	Buffalo	MAC	0.10	4	7
65	Boise State	MWC	0.03	-10	-23
66	Memphis	AAC	-0.05	-2	-40
67	Mississippi State	SEC	-0.54	-2	-18
68	Oregon State	Pac-12	-1.23	3	-6
69	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-1.96	5	-19
70	Michigan State	Big Ten	-2.39	-4	-7
71	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-2.43	-13	-31
72	Arizona	Pac-12	-2.47	5	4
73	Illinois	Big Ten	-2.53	-3	-19
74	Air Force	MWC	-2.99	-2	-5
75	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	-3.15	-2	38
76	Nevada	MWC	-3.26	-1	3
77	Vanderbilt	SEC	-3.59	5	20
78	Colorado	Pac-12	-3.66	10	21
79	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-3.99	-3	-18
80	Liberty	Ind	-5.47	-2	39
81	Navy	AAC	-5.47	-2	-16
82	San Diego State	MWC	-6.08	-2	-1
83	Wyoming	MWC	-6.40	-2	-11
84	Central Michigan	MAC	-6.82	5	3
85	Toledo	MAC	-7.19	-2	0
86	Temple	AAC	-7.63	4	-11
87	Fresno State	MWC	-8.29	14	11
88	Colorado State	MWC	-8.42	11	1
89	Charlotte	CUSA	-8.49	2	2
90	Syracuse	ACC	-8.89	3	-16
91	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-9.13	4	-1
92	Rutgers	Big Ten	-9.27	5	9
93	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-9.29	-1	1
94	Troy	Sun Belt	-9.42	2	11
95	East Carolina	AAC	-9.56	-1	1
96	South Florida	AAC	-9.60	4	-3
97	San Jose State	MWC	-9.62	-10	15
98	Army	Ind	-9.89	5	9
99	Ball State	MAC	-9.99	-15	-4
100	Ohio	MAC	-10.16	-14	-12
101	Western Michigan	MAC	-10.21	3	7
102	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-10.59	-17	-32
103	Hawaii	MWC	-10.81	-1	-3
104	Miami (OH)	MAC	-11.52	-6	-18
105	Rice	CUSA	-11.76	1	1
106	Texas State	Sun Belt	-12.20	2	18
107	North Texas	CUSA	-12.77	2	11
108	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-12.89	3	6
109	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-13.03	7	-5
110	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-13.23	-3	5
111	New Mexico	MWC	-13.26	-1	6
112	Kent State	MAC	-13.32	2	-3
113	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-13.61	-8	-33
114	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-14.88	-2	-30
115	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-15.36	4	8
116	Kansas	Big 12	-16.76	1	-6
117	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-16.93	-4	10
118	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-17.62	4	-36
119	Utah State	MWC	-18.14	-4	-16
120	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-18.31	-2	-18
121	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-18.45	-1	-5
122	Akron	MAC	-19.41	1	-1
123	Northern Illinois	MAC	-21.98	-2	-1
124	Florida International	CUSA	-22.32	1	-13
125	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-23.88	-1	-5
126	Massachusetts	Ind	-24.50	1	0
127	Bowling Green State	MAC	-26.54	-1	-2

It was a big week 10, so think of week 11 as a bit of a “hangover week” for teams to get things right. Here’s what is on the schedule as we get into our college football picks week 11 edition:

• Iowa @ Minnesota and Penn State @ Nebraska are two games featuring decent Big Ten teams that had poor starts looking to turn their seasons around
• #9 Miami faces a tough road test @ an angry Virginia Tech team
• #6 Florida gets a Sam Pittman-less Arkansas Razorbacks squad the week after upsetting Georgia
• #13 Wisconsin is finally back from their COVID hiatus, they travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan
• #2 Notre Dame gets the ultimate trap game: @ Boston College in the famous Red Bandana game
• #23 Northwestern and Purdue square off for the Big Ten West lead
• South Carolina and Ole Miss are both better than their 2-4 records indicate, they face off in what should be a fun night game
• Cal @ Arizona State is your Pac-12 after dark game this week, hopefully it doesn’t get canceled!

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 225-80 (74%)
ATS Best Bets: 30-26 (54%)
ATS Total: 144-139-22 (50%)

Best Bets

Central Michigan (-6) @ Northern Illinois – Wednesday, 8 PM ET, ESPNU
Tulane (-4) vs Army – 12 PM ET, ESPN+
West Virginia (-2) vs TCU – 12 PM ET, FOX
South Alabama (+15.5) @ #25 Louisiana – 2 PM ET, ESPN+
Boston College (+14) vs #2 Notre Dame – 3:30 PM ET, ABC
#13 Wisconsin (-1) @ Michigan – 7:30 PM ET, ABC
Cal (-2.5) @ UCLA – Sunday, 12 PM ET, FS1

Tuesday, November 10th

Akron (0-1 MAC) @ Ohio (0-1 MAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Ohio -22

CSD Pick: Ohio 38, Akron 15

Kent State (1-0 MAC) @ Bowling Green (0-1 MAC)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Kent State -17

CSD Pick: Kent State 34, Bowling Green 20

Miami OH (1-0 MAC) @ Buffalo (1-0 MAC)
8 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -9.5

CSD Pick: Buffalo 33, Miami OH 24

Wednesday, November 11th

Eastern Michigan (0-1 MAC) @ Ball State (0-1 MAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Ball State -7.5

CSD Pick: Ball State 36, Eastern Michigan 26

Toledo (1-0 MAC) @ Western Michigan (1-0 MAC)
8 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Western Michigan -2

CSD Pick: Western Michigan 30, Toledo 29

Central Michigan (1-0 MAC) @ Northern Illinois (0-1 MAC)
8 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Central Michigan -6

The NIU defense looked atrocious last week against Buffalo, and against a Central Michigan group that’s ground game is among the best in the country, I don’t like Northern Illinois’ chance. The Chippewas should roll.

CSD Pick: Central Michigan 33, Northern Illinois 24

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Central Michigan -6

Thursday, November 12th

Colorado State (1-1, 1-1 MW) @ Boise State (2-1, 2-0 MW)
8 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Boise State -14

CSD Pick: Boise State 34, Colorado State 22

Friday, November 13th

Florida Atlantic (3-1, 3-1 C-USA) @ FIU (0-3, 0-1 C-USA)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -9.5

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 28, FIU 19

Iowa (1-2 Big Ten) @ Minnesota (1-2 Big Ten)

7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa -2.5

In a week as weak as this one, games like this are going to get thrust more into the spotlight, and that’s ok. Both of these teams are better than their 1-2 record indicates, and both are fresh off of their first wins of the season. Iowa QB Spencer Petras has been quite inaccurate thus far, throwing at a clip just barely cracking 50%. I expect the Minnesota defense to force some turnovers and pick up a close home win.

CSD Pick: Minnesota 31, Iowa 27

East Carolina (1-5, 1-4 AAC) @ #7 Cincinnati (6-0, 4-0 AAC)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -25.5

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 43, East Carolina 18

Saturday, November 14th

#9 Miami (6-1, 5-1 ACC) @ Virginia Tech (4-3, 4-2 ACC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -2

A week after losing to Liberty, a 4-3 Virginia Tech squad is an outright favorite against a top-ten team. That seems a little crazy until you dig more into it. Miami, as they do seemingly every year, has a very inflated record right now. They have not performed like a 6-1 team, and they’ve faced a very weak schedule. VT, on the other hand, has a bit of an under-inflated record. Both the Wake and Liberty losses were very winnable games and VT has dealt with significant COVID problems. The Hokies are at home here, and I expect them to run all over a Miami defense that has taken a big step back this year. The Hurricanes, a team that has won a lot of close games those year, will have their luck finally run out.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 35, Miami 31

#10 Indiana (3-0 Big Ten) @ Michigan State (1-2 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Indiana -8

CSD Pick: Indiana 31, Michigan State 20

#15 Coastal Carolina (7-0, 5-0 Sun Belt) @ Troy (4-3, 2-2 Sun Belt) – CANCELLED
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -7.5

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 33, Troy 25

Middle Tennessee (2-5, 2-3 C-USA) @ #16 Marshall (6-0, 3-0 C-USA)
12 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Marshall -24

CSD Pick: Marshall 41, Middle Tennessee 16

Western Carolina (0-0) @ #22 Liberty (7-0)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Liberty -32.5

CSD Pick: Liberty 50, Western Carolina 7

Army (6-1) @ Tulane (4-4)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Tulane -4

I’m going to keep betting on Tulane until Vegas catches on. The Green Wave is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games, covering by an average of over 12 points. I’ll lock them up here against an Army team with a very inflated record.

CSD Pick: Tulane 31, Army 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Tulane -4

Penn State (0-3 Big Ten) @ Nebraska (0-2 Big Ten)

12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Penn State -3.5

An 0 must go here. From the win column. Wow. Both of these teams had relatively high expectations coming into the year and have flopped, going winless. That being said… I do still think these teams are a lot better than the records indicate, there is too much raw talent on both groups for that not to be the case. The Nebraska defense will put up a fight, but a desperate James Franklin, hoping to avoid an 0-4 start, will motivate the Nittany Lions to a close victory.

CSD Pick: Penn State 27, Nebraska 23

Wake Forest (4-2, 3-2 ACC) @ North Carolina (5-2, 5-2 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: North Carolina -10.5

CSD Pick: North Carolina 35, Wake Forest 29

TCU (3-3, 3-3 Big 12) @ West Virginia (4-3, 3-3 Big 12)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: West Virginia -2

I really like this 4-3 West Virginia team. QB Jarret Doege isn’t quite there yet, but he’s shown flashes, and the defense has looked great under Neal Brown’s tutelage. The Mountaineers haven’t lost a game at home so far this year, and they’ll knock off the Horned Frogs.

CSD Pick: West Virginia 30, TCU 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – West Virginia -2

Vanderbilt (0-5 SEC) @ Kentucky (2-4 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Kentucky -17.5

CSD Pick: Kentucky 32, Vanderbilt 11

Illinois (0-3 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (1-2 Big Ten)
1 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Rutgers -6

CSD Pick: Illinois 21, Rutgers 20

Gardner-Webb (0-0) @ Charlotte (2-3) – CANCELLED
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Charlotte -29.5

CSD Pick: Charlotte 39, Gardner-Webb 11

South Alabama (3-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) @ #25 Louisiana (6-1, 4-1 Sun Belt)
2 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Louisiana -15.5

I’ve been lower on Louisiana than most all year, and it has largely paid off. Since the big victory over Iowa State, the Cajuns are 1-5 against the spread. Pound South Alabama here.

CSD Pick: Louisiana 31, South Alabama 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – South Alabama +15.5

Georgia State (3-3, 2-3 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (5-1, 3-0 Sun Belt)
2:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -16

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 37, Georgia State 20

Fresno State (2-1, 2-1 MW) @ Utah State (0-3, 0-3 MW)
2:30 PM ET, FS2
Vegas Line: Fresno State -11.5

CSD Pick: Fresno State 30, Utah State 20

UTEP (3-3, 0-2 C-USA) @ UTSA (4-4, 2-2 C-USA)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: UTSA -5

CSD Pick: UTEP 23, UTSA 22

North Texas (2-3, 1-2 C-USA) @ UAB (4-3, 2-1 C-USA) – CANCELLED
3 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: UAB -15

CSD Pick: UAB 37, North Texas 26

#2 Notre Dame (7-0, 6-0 ACC) @ Boston College (5-3, 4-3 ACC)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -14

Oh wow. It would just be the most Notre Dame thing ever to lose to Boston College here, wouldn’t it? The Golden Eagles have knocked off an undefeated Notre Dame team after the Irish beat the class of the ACC twice before – in 2002 and 1993. Boston College, playing in their annual red bandana game, one of the most emotional days on the sports calendar, will absolutely have a shot to win this game. The Eagles, led by, ironically, Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec, should cover this 14-point spread, and I would not at all be surprised by an outright win.

CSD Pick: Notre Dame 32, Boston College 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boston College +14

#20 USC (1-0 Pac-12) @ Arizona (0-0 Pac-12)
3:30 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: USC -12.5

CSD Pick: USC 38, Arizona 24

Southern Miss (2-5, 1-2 C-USA) @ Western Kentucky (2-6, 1-3 C-USA)
3:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky -8

CSD Pick: Western Kentucky 25, Southern Miss 18

Rice (1-1, 1-1 C-USA) @ Louisiana Tech (4-3, 3-2 C-USA) – CANCELLED
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Louisiana Tech 27, Rice 24

USF (1-6, 0-5 AAC) @ Houston (2-3, 2-2 AAC)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Houston -14

CSD Pick: Houston 34, USF 24

Texas State (1-8, 1-4 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (5-2, 3-2 Sun Belt)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -10

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 34, Texas State 22

Louisville (2-5, 1-5 ACC) @ Virginia (2-4, 2-4 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia -3

CSD Pick: Virginia 33, Louisville 30

Colorado (1-0 Pac-12) @ Stanford (0-1 Pac-12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Stanford -7

CSD Pick: Stanford 29, Colorado 22

Hawai’i (2-1, 2-1 MW) @ San Diego State (2-1, 2-1 MW)
4 PM ET, Spectrum
Vegas Line: San Diego State -10

CSD Pick: San Diego State 30, Hawai’i 27

Baylor (1-4, 1-4 Big 12) @ Texas Tech (2-5, 1-5 Big 12)
4 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Baylor 30, Texas Tech 27

#23 Northwestern (3-0 Big Ten) @ Purdue (2-0 Big Ten)

5 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Pick’em

Is this the biggest game of the week? Maybe I guess. Two unbeatens – Northwestern and Purdue – will face in a matchup to determine who will be Wisconsin’s challenger in the Big Ten West. While they may be on the road, my pick is Northwestern. The Wildcats are a coach’s team, they play the fundamentals of football right, they have an efficient, sturdy defense, and they don’t turn the ball over. Give me the Wildcats to win this one as they head into next week’s clash with Wisconsin.

CSD Pick: Northwestern 25, Purdue 21

Nevada (3-0, 3-0 MW) @ New Mexico (0-2, 0-2 MW)
6:30 PM ET, FS2
Vegas Line: Nevada -11.5

CSD Pick: Nevada 36, New Mexico 26

Arkansas (3-3 SEC) @ #6 Florida (4-1 SEC)

7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -17

Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks will get a chance to take on his former team on Saturday night as the Razorbacks will look to spoil Florida’s stroll into the College Football Playoff. There is always a letdown effect after a team wins a big game, and because of that, I do expect Arkansas to keep this closer than expected, but the Florida offense is just too good, and the Gators should win by double digits.

CSD Pick: Florida 37, Arkansas 25

#11 Oregon (1-0 Pac-12) @ Washington State (1-0 Pac-12)
7 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oregon -8

CSD Pick: Oregon 35, Washington State 25

#19 SMU (7-1, 4-1 AAC) @ Tulsa (3-1, 3-0 AAC)
7 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Tulsa -2

CSD Pick: SMU 32, Tulsa 31

Pitt (4-4, 3-4 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (2-5, 2-4 ACC) – CANCELLED
7 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Pitt -7.5

CSD Pick: Pitt 28, Georgia Tech 18

#13 Wisconsin (1-0 Big Ten) @ Michigan (1-2 Big Ten)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Wisconsin -1

It is finally time to see Wisconsin play on a Saturday. The Badgers, who have not been able to play since October because of COVID concerns, are still the #4 team in the country in my computer model, albeit with very limited sample size. They take on a Michigan team that looks to turn their season around after a 1-2 start. It is unclear how many players Wisconsin will be down due to the outbreak, but whoever is able to play will be motivated to get back on the field, and they should win this one on the road, improving to 2-0.

CSD Pick: Wisconsin 30, Michigan 24

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Wisconsin -1

Temple (1-4, 1-4 AAC) @ UCF (4-2, 3-2 AAC)
7:30 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: UCF -28.5

CSD Pick: UCF 41, Temple 24

Florida State (2-5, 1-5 ACC) @ NC State (4-3, 4-3 ACC)
7:30 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: NC State -7.5

CSD Pick: NC State 31, Florida State 23

South Carolina (2-4 SEC) @ Ole Miss (2-4 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Ole Miss -7

Another game between teams better than their records indicate. Keep in mind that if we did have a non-conference this year, both of these teams would likely be at least .500 with the cupcakes thrown in. Will Muschamp is coaching for his job, but I like the Rebels offense in this one. Ole Miss has one of the best scoring attacks in the country, and they should improve to 3-4.

CSD Pick: Ole Miss 33, South Carolina 29

UNLV (0-3, 0-3 MW) @ San Jose State (3-0, 3-0 MW)
10:30 PM ET, FS2
Vegas Line: San Jose State -16

CSD Pick: San Jose State 34, UNLV 18

Cal (0-0 Pac-12) @ Arizona State (0-1 Pac-12) – CANCELLED

10:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Arizona State -4

We will finally get to see Cal play after the Golden Bears had their first game canceled last week due to COVID concerns. As for Arizona State, they played well in a 28-27 road loss to USC, in fact, I would argue they looked like the better team despite the score. ASU QB Jayden Daniels is a future star, and I expect him to lead the Sun Devils to their first win of the year

CSD Pick: Arizona State 26, Cal 24

Utah (0-0 Pac-12) @ UCLA (0-1 Pac-12) – CANCELLED
10:30 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Utah -2.5

CSD Pick: Utah 36, UCLA 28

Oregon State (0-1 Pac-12) @ Washington (0-0 Pac-12)
11 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Washington -13.5

CSD Pick: Washington 35, Oregon State 20

Sunday, November 15th

Cal (0-0 Pac-12) @ UCLA (0-1 Pac-12)
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Cal -2.5

This feels like free money to me. UCLA is reeling, Cal is a legit top-25 level team. I understand that the circumstances are odd, but I’ll take the better team minus less than a field goal.

CSD Pick: Cal 27, UCLA 19

*These projections are NOT if the season ended today, they are projected ahead to the end of the season

GoodYear Cotton Bowl Classic

December 30th, 7:15 PM ET, ESPN
Arlington, TX
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Wisconsin vs. USC

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

January 1st, 12:30 PM ET, ESPN
Atlanta, GA
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Cincinnati vs. Florida

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

January 2nd, 4 PM ET, ESPN
Glendale, AZ
At-Large vs. At-Large
Bowl Projection: Oregon vs. Oklahoma

Capital One Orange Bowl

January 2nd, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
ACC vs. Big Ten or SEC
Bowl Projection: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

Rose Bowl

January 1st, 5 PM ET, ESPN
Pasadena, CA
CFP vs. CFP
Bowl Projection: Ohio State vs. Clemson
Pick: Ohio State

Allstate Sugar Bowl

January 1st, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
New Orleans, LA
CFP vs. CFP
Projection: Alabama vs. BYU
Pick: Alabama

College Football Playoff National Championship

January 11th, 8 PM ET, ESPN
Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Pick: Alabama

A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season, even if a team continues to lose. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.

Rank	Team	Conf	RATING	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	28.59	0	0
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	27.51	0	0
3	Florida	SEC	22.29	7	4
4	Wisconsin	Big Ten	19.98	1	8
5	Georgia	SEC	19.48	-2	-1
6	Clemson	ACC	19.24	-2	-3
7	Texas A&M	SEC	19.01	5	1
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	18.36	0	-3
9	Notre Dame	ACC	18.09	2	5
10	Oregon	Pac-12	16.38	-4	3
11	Southern California	Pac-12	15.54	-2	4
12	Auburn	SEC	14.69	3	-2
13	North Carolina	ACC	14.04	5	4
14	Cincinnati	AAC	13.53	0	6
15	Arizona State	Pac-12	13.35	9	16
16	Michigan	Big Ten	13.14	-3	2
17	Penn State	Big Ten	12.49	-10	-11
18	Brigham Young	Ind	12.25	29	33
19	Indiana	Big Ten	11.84	9	18
20	Kentucky	SEC	11.55	0	7
21	Missouri	SEC	11.44	5	35
22	Oklahoma State	Big 12	11.03	-3	-6
23	Texas	Big 12	10.99	-6	-12
24	Washington	Pac-12	10.77	-2	5
25	Iowa State	Big 12	10.38	-9	-4
26	West Virginia	Big 12	10.21	8	27
27	Louisiana State	SEC	9.64	-4	-18
28	Nebraska	Big Ten	9.22	-1	5
29	Minnesota	Big Ten	9.14	10	-5
30	Miami (FL)	ACC	9.09	7	0
31	Virginia Tech	ACC	8.86	-10	-12
32	California	Pac-12	8.83	-3	4
33	Mississippi	SEC	8.36	0	2
34	Pittsburgh	ACC	8.07	15	4
35	Central Florida	AAC	8.02	-3	-12
36	Boston College	ACC	7.87	2	28
37	Louisville	ACC	7.79	-6	-12
38	Iowa	Big Ten	7.71	-3	-6
39	Arkansas	SEC	7.62	6	39
40	Purdue	Big Ten	7.36	0	5
41	South Carolina	SEC	7.33	-16	3
42	Northwestern	Big Ten	7.32	0	10
43	Virginia	ACC	6.90	1	-2
44	Texas Christian	Big 12	6.59	-14	-5
45	Stanford	Pac-12	6.59	7	3
46	Utah	Pac-12	6.00	0	-3
47	Tennessee	SEC	5.99	-6	-25
48	Baylor	Big 12	5.82	5	-14
49	Wake Forest	ACC	5.78	-1	6
50	Kansas State	Big 12	5.54	1	-4
51	North Carolina State	ACC	5.18	-8	6
52	Texas Tech	Big 12	3.87	5	7
53	Houston	AAC	2.72	5	5
54	Tulane	AAC	2.22	10	19
55	Boise State	MWC	1.93	-19	-13
56	Southern Methodist	AAC	1.37	7	-9
57	Georgia Tech	ACC	1.06	5	10
58	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	0.75	-2	-18
59	Marshall	CUSA	0.75	8	18
60	Tulsa	AAC	0.69	9	32
61	Washington State	Pac-12	0.58	9	7
62	Duke	ACC	0.42	-2	4
63	Maryland	Big Ten	0.34	16	20
64	Memphis	AAC	-0.05	-14	-38
65	Mississippi State	SEC	-0.54	-10	-16
66	Michigan State	Big Ten	-0.73	2	-3
67	Florida State	ACC	-0.83	-13	-39
68	Buffalo	MAC	-1.60	5	3
69	UCLA	Pac-12	-1.99	-10	-9
70	Illinois	Big Ten	-2.31	-9	-16
71	Oregon State	Pac-12	-2.63	-5	-9
72	Air Force	MWC	-2.99	0	-3
73	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	-3.15	3	40
74	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-3.20	-9	-24
75	Nevada	MWC	-3.37	0	4
76	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-3.99	-2	-15
77	Arizona	Pac-12	-4.55	0	-1
78	Liberty	Ind	-5.47	13	41
79	Navy	AAC	-5.47	1	-14
80	San Diego State	MWC	-6.17	-9	1
81	Wyoming	MWC	-6.40	-3	-9
82	Vanderbilt	SEC	-6.48	14	15
83	Toledo	MAC	-6.52	0	2
84	Ball State	MAC	-7.19	9	11
85	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-7.30	9	-15
86	Ohio	MAC	-7.32	2	2
87	San Jose State	MWC	-7.40	15	25
88	Colorado	Pac-12	-7.85	10	11
89	Central Michigan	MAC	-8.10	-4	-2
90	Temple	AAC	-8.12	-9	-15
91	Charlotte	CUSA	-8.49	-1	0
92	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-8.74	9	2
93	Syracuse	ACC	-8.89	-1	-19
94	East Carolina	AAC	-8.90	-5	2
95	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-9.13	10	-5
96	Troy	Sun Belt	-9.42	-10	9
97	Rutgers	Big Ten	-9.49	-2	4
98	Miami (OH)	MAC	-9.81	-14	-12
99	Colorado State	MWC	-10.31	1	-10
100	South Florida	AAC	-10.41	6	-7
101	Fresno State	MWC	-10.42	-4	-3
102	Hawaii	MWC	-10.72	-20	-2
103	Army	Ind	-10.88	-4	4
104	Western Michigan	MAC	-10.88	6	4
105	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-11.58	-18	-25
106	Rice	CUSA	-11.76	-3	0
107	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-11.99	0	8
108	Texas State	Sun Belt	-12.75	1	16
109	North Texas	CUSA	-12.77	-1	9
110	New Mexico	MWC	-13.15	7	7
111	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-14.75	1	3
112	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-14.88	1	-28
113	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-15.07	2	14
114	Kent State	MAC	-15.50	-3	-5
115	Utah State	MWC	-16.01	-1	-12
116	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-16.21	-12	-12
117	Kansas	Big 12	-16.76	-1	-7
118	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-17.87	1	-16
119	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-18.17	3	4
120	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-20.66	3	-4
121	Northern Illinois	MAC	-20.70	0	1
122	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-20.91	-4	-40
123	Akron	MAC	-22.25	-3	-2
124	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-23.88	3	-4
125	Florida International	CUSA	-24.35	-1	-14
126	Bowling Green State	MAC	-24.36	-1	-1
127	Massachusetts	Ind	-24.50	-1	-1

The biggest week of the college football season so far is here as #8 Florida takes on #5 Georgia and #1 Clemson takes on #4 Notre Dame in two games with massive CFP implications. Also on the docket:

• The Pac-12 finally starts their season! This week’s schedule is highlighted by Arizona State vs #20 USC
• A Friday night showdown out west as #9 BYU takes on #21 Boise State
• #13 Indiana hopes to cement their status as the Big Ten East’s #2 as they host #23 Michigan, meanwhile, Northwestern and Nebraska jockey for position in the West
• #25 Liberty, ranked for the first time in school history, looks to hold onto that spot against Virginia Tech
• #22 Texas and West Virginia hope to stay alive in the Big 12 title picture, but only one can
• #7 Texas A&M, a College Football Playoff darkhorse, is on upset watch @ South Carolina

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 191-65 (74%)
ATS Best Bets: 29-23 (+3.4 units)
ATS Total: 125-115-16

Best Bets

#21 Boise State (+3) vs #9 BYU – Friday, 9:45 PM ET, FS1
Temple (+18.5) vs #18 SMU – 12 PM ET, ESPN+
Tulane (-2.5) @ East Carolina – 12 PM ET, ESPN+
Troy (+1) @ Georgia Southern – 1 PM ET, ESPN3
Florida State (+2.5) vs Pittsburgh – 4 PM ET, ACC Network

Wednesday, November 4th

Eastern Michigan (0-0 MAC) @ Kent State (0-0 MAC)
6 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Kent State -6.5

CSD Pick: Kent State 36, Eastern Michigan 30

Western Michigan (0-0 MAC) @ Akron (0-0 MAC)
6 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Western Michigan -17

CSD Pick: Western Michigan 30, Akron 18

Buffalo (0-0 MAC) @ Northern Illinois (0-0 MAC)
7 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Buffalo -9.5

CSD Pick: Buffalo 33, Northern Illinois 19

Ohio (0-0 MAC) @ Central Michigan (0-0 MAC)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Pick’em

CSD Pick: Ohio 32, Central Michigan 31

Ball State (0-0 MAC) @ Miami OH (0-0 MAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) -3

CSD Pick: Miami OH 30, Ball State 27

Bowling Green (0-0 MAC) @ Toledo (0-0 MAC)
8 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Toledo -18

CSD Pick: Toledo 38, Bowling Green 17

Thursday, November 5th

Utah State (0-2, 0-2 MW) @ Nevada (2-0, 2-0 MW)
7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Nevada -13.5

CSD Pick: Nevada 34, Utah State 19

Wyoming (1-1, 1-1 MW) @ Colorado State (0-1, 0-1 MW)
9 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Wyoming -3.5

CSD Pick: Wyoming 28, Colorado State 24

Friday, November 6th

#11 Miami (5-1, 4-1 ACC) @ NC State (4-2, 4-2 ACC)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Miami -8.5

CSD Pick: Miami 31, NC State 25

San Jose State (2-0, 2-0 MW) @ San Diego State (2-0, 2-0 MW)
9 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: San Diego State -10

CSD Pick: San Diego State 32, San Jose State 22

#9 BYU (7-0) @ #21 Boise State (2-0)

9:45 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: BYU -3

An 0 must go on Friday night, as the two biggest non-P5s on the West Coast will face off in primetime. Both squads have looked great so far this year. Not only are both undefeated, but they are a combined 7-1-1 against the spread, an incredible mark. I don’t see either of these teams quite at a College Football Playoff level, but either making it into the New Year’s Six would not be surprising.

For BYU, QB Zach Wilson is a star, and while Boise State’s normal #1 QB, Hank Bachmeier, will be out with COVID, Boise backup Jack Sears was great last week against Air Force, throwing three touchdowns and only three incompletions. Sears’ performance last week was enough to quell my fears in the passing game, and I like Boise’s defense a lot better than BYU’s. I’ve got the Broncos ending BYU’s dreams on the blue turf.

CSD Pick: Boise State 32, BYU 31

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boise State +3

Saturday, November 7th

#23 Michigan (1-1 Big Ten) @ #13 Indiana (2-0 Big Ten)

12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Michigan -3.5

The Big Ten East is a mess, but the question as to who the #2 is behind Ohio State will get some clarity on Saturday as Michigan takes on Indiana. The Hoosiers have had an excellent start to the year, holding victories over Penn State and Rutgers, but they run into Michigan, a program that has beaten down Indiana in recent years, in fact, the Wolverines have beaten Indiana 24 straight times. I’m not betting against that. This is where Indiana’s luck runs out.

CSD Pick: Michigan 31, Indiana 27

#18 SMU (6-1, 3-1 American) @ Temple (1-3, 1-3 American)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: SMU -18.5

SMU has been a little overhyped this year, and I feel that this Temple squad, at home, will finally take a step forward after underachieving thus far in 2020, expect this to be a lot tighter than the 18.5-point spread indicates.

CSD Pick: SMU 37, Temple 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Temple +18.5

Arizona State (0-0 Pac-12) @ #20 USC (0-0 Pac-12)

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: USC -10.5

The legendary 9 AM local kick! This is, of course, a terrible idea, but it should be a good game between two of the Pac-12 favorites. I happen to be a lot higher on USC than most, seeing the Trojans as a potential playoff contender down the road, and they’ll show that they mean business with a double-digit victory to open the year in the national spotlight.

CSD Pick: USC 34, Arizona State 24

West Virginia (4-2, 3-2 Big 12) @ #22 Texas (4-2, 3-2 Big 12)

12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Texas -7

The loser of this game may have their Big 12 title hopes dashed, so this is a big one. Both teams are fresh off of big wins over ranked foes, but only one can continue that streak. Texas is at home and Sam Ehlinger is a playmaker near unmatched in College Football, so I’ll take the Longhorns, but it will be tight.

CSD Pick: Texas 32, West Virginia 25

#25 Liberty (6-0) @ Virginia Tech (4-2)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -16.5

The best chance we’ll have of seeing a ranked team go down on Saturday will be #25 Liberty traveling to Virginia Tech. The Flames have had a nice start to the year, they beat Syracuse, but they aren’t in VT’s league. Give me the Hokies, big.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 44, Liberty 25

USF (1-5, 0-4 American) @ Memphis (3-2, 2-2 American)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Memphis -17.5

CSD Pick: Memphis 40, USF 21

Tulane (3-4, 1-4 American) @ East Carolina (1-4, 1-3 American)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Tulane -2.5

Something about this line feels very wrong. I really like this Tulane team – they can rush the passer, the run game looked great last week, and they’ll easily cover 2.5 against ECU.

CSD Pick: Tulane 34, East Carolina 28

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Tulane -2.5

North Carolina (4-2, 4-2 ACC) @ Duke (2-5, 1-5 ACC)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: North Carolina -9

CSD Pick: North Carolina 38, Duke 27

UL Monroe (0-7, 0-4 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (2-3, 1-3 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Georgia State -19.5

CSD Pick: Georgia State 35, UL Monroe 18

Nebraska (0-1 Big Ten) @ Northwestern (2-0 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Northwestern -4

CSD Pick: Northwestern 27, Nebraska 25

Michigan State (1-1 Big Ten) @ Iowa (0-2 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Iowa -7

CSD Pick: Iowa 28, Michigan State 19

Arkansas State (3-4, 1-3 Sun Belt) @ Louisiana (5-1, 3-1 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Louisiana -13

CSD Pick: Louisiana 41, Arkansas State 27

Troy (4-2, 2-1 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (3-2, 2-2 Sun Belt)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -1

The wrong team is favored here. Troy stomped Arkansas State 38-10 last week, and they’ll continue that momentum here against a middling Georgia Southern squad.

CSD Pick: Troy 30, Georgia Southern 27

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Troy +1

Boston College (4-3, 3-3 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-6, 1-5 ACC)
2 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Boston College -13.5

CSD Pick: Boston College 32, Syracuse 18

UMass (0-1) @ #16 Marshall (5-0)
2:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Marshall -43.5

CSD Pick: Marshall 44, UMass 9

North Alabama (0-2) @ Southern Miss (1-5)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Southern Miss -16

CSD Pick: Southern Miss 36, North Alabama 9

Appalachian State (4-1, 2-0 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (1-7, 1-3 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -17

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 38, Texas State 22

#8 Florida (3-1 SEC) vs. #5 Georgia (4-1 SEC) in Jacksonville, FL

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Georgia -6

A potential College Football Playoff eliminator game out of the SEC, where it seems unlikely the loser of this game has any chance of making the big dance. Is this the biggest “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” in recent memory? Probably.

Both teams have dropped a game already this year: Florida to Texas A&M and Georgia to Alabama. The UF offense has been great so far – Kyle Trask is excellent, and the run games deserve more credit, but the Gator defense is a problem. Stetson Bennett will do enough, the Georgia defense will hold strong, and the Bulldogs will continue their march to an eventual rematch with Alabama

CSD Pick: Georgia 31, Florida 26

Houston (2-2, 2-1 American) @ #6 Cincinnati (5-0, 3-0 American)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -10.5

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 35, Houston 21

Kansas (0-6, 0-5 Big 12) @ #19 Oklahoma (4-2, 3-2 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -37

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 47, Kansas 10

Maryland (1-1 Big Ten) @ Penn State (0-2 Big Ten)
3:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Penn State -24.5

CSD Pick: Penn State 41, Maryland 15

Minnesota (0-2 Big Ten) @ Illinois (0-2 Big Ten)
3:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Minnesota -7.5

CSD Pick: Minnesota 32, Illinois 27

Vanderbilt (0-4 SEC) @ Mississippi State (1-4 SEC)
3:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Mississippi State -18.5

CSD Pick: Mississippi State 30, Vanderbilt 13

Texas Tech (2-4, 1-4 Big 12) @ TCU (2-3, 2-3 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: TCU -9.5

CSD Pick: TCU 34, Texas Tech 25

Fresno State (1-1, 1-1 MW) @ UNLV (0-2, 0-2 MW)
3:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Fresno State -13.5

CSD Pick: Fresno State 32, UNLV 23

#14 Oklahoma State (4-1, 3-1 Big 12) @ Kansas State (4-2, 4-1 Big 12)
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -9.5

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 30, Kansas State 21

Pittsburgh (3-4, 2-4 ACC) @ Florida State (2-4, 1-4 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh -2.5

Florida State is a team on the rise, Pitt is faltering, FSU is at home. Enough said. Get on this before the line changes.

CSD Pick: Florida State 25, Pittsburgh 24

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Florida State +2.5

Western Kentucky (2-5, 1-2 C-USA) @ Florida Atlantic (2-1, 2-1 C-USA)
6 PM ET, Stadium/FSN
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -11.5

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 26, Western Kentucky 21

#7 Texas A&M (4-1 SEC) @ South Carolina (2-3 SEC)

7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -8

Texas A&M, a darkhorse playoff contender, will look to avoid an upset as they travel to Colombia to take on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are a lot better than their 2-3 record indicates, and I do expect A&M to get a scare here, but the Aggies are just too talented, and they’ll pick up a win to improve to 5-1 on the year – although it will be close.

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 30, South Carolina 23

Baylor (1-3, 1-3 Big 12) @ #17 Iowa State (4-2, 4-1 Big 12)

7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa State -12.5

CSD Pick: Iowa State 31, Baylor 18

UCLA (0-0 Pac-12) @ Colorado (0-0 Pac-12)
7 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: UCLA -6

CSD Pick: UCLA 31, Colorado 23

#1 Clemson (7-0, 6-0 ACC) @ #4 Notre Dame (6-0, 5-0 ACC)

7:30 PM ET, NBC
Vegas Line: Clemson -5

The biggest game of the year to date perhaps? This will be fun. DJ Uiagelelei, filling in for Trevor Lawrence, taking on one of the best defenses in the country in Notre Dame. It’s Clemson vs Notre Dame.

The Tigers are dealing with injuries and COVID positives, they’re on the road, but I just can’t bet against them. Notre Dame hasn’t faced a team better than… Louisville maybe? The Irish are untested while the Tigers have been here, in the spotlight before. It will be close, but DJ will put in another great performance, and the Tigers will continue their march to the CFP.

CSD Pick: Clemson 33, Notre Dame 29

Rutgers (1-1 Big Ten) @ #3 Ohio State (2-0 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, BTN
Vegas Line: Ohio State -37

CSD Pick: Ohio State 49, Rutgers 11

Stanford (0-0 Pac-12) @ #12 Oregon (0-0 Pac-12)
7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oregon -10.5

CSD Pick: Oregon 33, Stanford 21

Tennessee (2-3 SEC) @ Arkansas (2-3 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -1

CSD Pick: Tennessee 25, Arkansas 24

South Alabama (3-3, 2-1 Sun Belt) @ #15 Coastal Carolina (6-0, 4-0 Sun Belt)
8 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -15.5

CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 36, South Alabama 22

Washington State (0-0 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (0-0 Pac-12)
10:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Washington State -3

CSD Pick: Oregon State 34, Washington State 31

New Mexico (0-1, 0-1 MW) @ Hawai’i (1-1, 1-1 MW)
11 PM ET, Spectrum Sports
Vegas Line: Hawai’i -15.5

CSD Pick: Hawai’i 37, New Mexico 23