College Football Picks Week 13 – Stacked Black Friday
This week’s schedule is headlined by a Black Friday showdown between #2 Notre Dame and #19 North Carolina and the Iron Bowl on Saturday: #22 Auburn vs #1 Alabama. Also on the docket:
- #13 Iowa State and #17 Texas square off in a game with major Big 12 title implications
- Can 0-5 Penn State finally get a win @ Michigan?
- #6 Florida, #5 Texas A&M, and #9 Georgia face tough SEC tests heading into the season’s end
- #3 Clemson is hoping to avoid an upset vs Pitt
All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of each game in the CSD Prime computer model
2020 Prediction Stats
Straight Up: 294-99 (75%)
ATS Best Bets: 38-31-2 (55%)
ATS Total: 185-177-31 (51%)
Best Bets
#12 Indiana (-10.5) vs Maryland – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
Toledo (-9) vs Ball State – 12 PM ET, ESPN3
#22 Auburn (+26) @ #1 Alabama – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Pitt (+26) @ #3 Clemson – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
#8 Northwestern (-10.5) @ Michigan State – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Thursday, November 26th
Colorado State (1-2, 1-2 MW) @ Air Force (2-2, 1-2 MW) — CANCELED
2 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Air Force -7.5
CSD Pick: Air Force 31, Colorado State 23
New Mexico (0-4, 0-4 MW) @ Utah State (0-4, 0-4 MW)
7 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: New Mexico -4.5
CSD Pick: New Mexico 24, Utah State 23
Friday, November 27th
#13 Iowa State (6-2, 6-1 Big 12) @ #17 Texas (5-2, 4-2 Big 12)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Texas -2.5
These two teams may be out of the national title hunt, but this game still has huge implications for the Big 12 title scene. A Texas win will complicate things greatly, leaving four teams tied with two Big 12 losses, while an ISU victory means we are likely headed for an Iowa State-Oklahoma final.
I like this Iowa State team a lot, the offense is among the best in the conference, but the Cyclones are on the road here, and the Texas defense has been improving in recent weeks. I expect the Longhorns to do enough to slow down Breece Hall, and for UT to throw a wrench in the Cyclones’ Big 12 aspirations.
CSD Pick: Texas 30, Iowa State 28
UMass (0-3) @ Liberty (8-1)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -37.5
CSD Pick: Liberty 46, UMass 11
Nebraska (1-3 Big Ten) @ #24 Iowa (3-2 Big Ten)
1 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Iowa -14.5
CSD Pick: Iowa 32, Nebraska 16
#2 Notre Dame (8-0, 7-0 ACC) @ #19 North Carolina (6-2, 6-2 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Notre Dame -4
The game of the week for week 13 comes from the ACC, as Notre Dame, fresh off a #2 placement in the first CFP playoff rankings, travels to face their toughest test left in the regular season: North Carolina.
The Tar Heels can put up points. No one outside of Clemson has an offense at the level of UNC among Notre Dame’s opponents this year. Sam Howell is the most efficient QB in the conference, and the run game is stout. That being said, the Tar Heel defense is light, to put in nicely. UNC let up over 240 rushing yards to Florida State, they got outplayed from start to finish against Virginia (210 rushing yards) and throttled by VT in a close win (260 rushing yards). The Irish will run all over UNC, and while Sam Howell will keep up his end, the defense will break one too many times.
CSD Pick: Notre Dame 40, North Carolina 36
UCF (5-3, 4-3 AAC) @ USF (1-7, 0-6 AAC)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: UCF -25
CSD Pick: UCF 43, USF 19
Wyoming (1-2, 1-2 MW) @ UNLV (0-4, 0-4 MW)
4 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Wyoming -13.5
CSD Pick: Wyoming 31, UNLV 16
Stanford (0-2 Pac-12) @ California (0-2 Pac-12)
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: California -1
CSD Pick: California 24, Stanford 21
Central Michigan (2-1 MAC) @ Eastern Michigan (0-3 MAC)
4 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Central Michigan -4.5
CSD Pick: Central Michigan 34, Eastern Michigan 29
#15 Oregon (3-0 Pac-12) @ Oregon State (1-2 Pac-12)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oregon -16.5
CSD Pick: Oregon 36, Oregon State 24
Saturday, November 28th
#4 Ohio State (4-0 Big Ten) @ Illinois (2-3 Big Ten) – CANCELED
12 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Ohio State -29
CSD Pick: Ohio State 47, Illinois 17
Kentucky (3-5 SEC) @ #6 Florida (6-1 SEC)
12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -24
Kentucky is better than the 63-3 loss they were handed by Alabama last weekend, but they are not good enough to beat a national title contender like Florida on the road. The Gators’ offense, led by Kyle Trask, may be the best in the country. Expect UF to dominate this one from start to finish.
CSD Pick: Florida 43, Kentucky 21
Maryland (2-1 Big Ten) @ #12 Indiana (4-1 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Indiana -10.5
Who would have thought this would be a game for #2 in the Big Ten East? Not me, that’s for sure. Maryland is coming off of a two-week quarantine due to COVID, and now have to go on the road to take on an Indiana team that is fresh off of taking Ohio State to the limit. 10.5 points is too short of a line.
CSD Pick: Indiana 38, Maryland 19
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Indiana -10.5
Texas Tech (3-5, 2-5 Big 12) @ #23 Oklahoma State (5-2, 4-2 Big 12)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -11
CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 21
Penn State (0-5 Big Ten) @ Michigan (2-3 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Michigan -4
Aptly nicknamed the “Sickos Game of the Week”, these two underperforming Big Ten programs will square off on national TV for all to see. Both of these squads are reeling, but at least Michigan has won this year, plus, the Wolverines are at home. Backup QB Cade McNamara looked solid against Rutgers last week, and he will lead Michigan to a win to drop Penn State to 0-6.
CSD Pick: Michigan 28, Penn State 25
Northern Illinois (0-3 MAC) @ Western Michigan (3-0 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Western Michigan -17.5
CSD Pick: Western Michigan 40, Northern Illinois 21
Bowling Green (0-3 MAC) @ Ohio (1-1 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Ohio -24.5
CSD Pick: Ohio 44, Bowling Green 17
Kent State (3-0 MAC) @ Buffalo (3-0 MAC)
12 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Buffalo -9
CSD Pick: Buffalo 42, Kent State 32
Ball State (2-1 MAC) @ Toledo (2-1 MAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Toledo -9
Ball State has been the beneficiary of a very easy schedule so far. I’ll stick with the much more talented team at home laying nine. Give me Toledo, assuming QB Eli Peters is available to play.
CSD Pick: Toledo 37, Ball State 24
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Toledo -9
SMU (7-2, 4-2 AAC) @ East Carolina (2-6, 2-5 AAC)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: SMU -10.5
CSD Pick: SMU 39, East Carolina 29
Georgia Southern (6-3, 4-2 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (4-4, 2-4 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Georgia State -1
CSD Pick: Georgia State 27, Georgia Southern 26
NC State (6-3, 5-3 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-8, 1-7 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: NC State -14.5
CSD Pick: NC State 34, Syracuse 17
Vanderbilt (0-7 SEC) @ Missouri (3-3 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt -16.5
CSD Pick: Missouri 32, Vanderbilt 18
UTEP (3-4, 0-3 C-USA) @ Rice (1-2, 1-2 C-USA) – CANCELED
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Rice -8
CSD Pick: Rice 24, UTEP 19
Miami OH (1-1 MAC) @ Akon (0-3 MAC)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Miami OH -13.5
CSD Pick: Miami OH 27, Akron 14
#20 Coastal Carolina (8-0, 6-0 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (2-9, 2-5 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -16
CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 43, Texas State 19
Louisiana (7-1, 5-1 Sun Belt) @ UL Monroe (0-8, 0-5 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Louisiana -25.5
CSD Pick: Louisiana 42, UL Monroe 11
North Texas (3-3, 2-2 C-USA) @ UTSA (6-4, 4-2 C-USA)
3 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: UTSA -5
CSD Pick: UTSA 36, North Texas 33
South Alabama (3-6, 2-4 Sun Belt) @ Arkansas State (3-6, 1-5 Sun Belt)
3 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -7
CSD Pick: Arkansas State 32, South Alabama 24
#22 Auburn (5-2 SEC) @ #1 Alabama (7-0 SEC)
3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama -26
Alabama head coach Nick Saban will miss this game after testing positive for COVID. Will that be the difference between a win and a loss? Probably not, but it might be enough for a solid Auburn team to keep this one tighter than the 26 point spread. Bo Nix has been improving in recent weeks, and while Alabama will roll, they won’t quite cover.
CSD Pick: Alabama 44, Auburn 25
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Auburn +26
Pitt (5-4, 4-4 ACC) @ #3 Clemson (7-1, 6-1 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Clemson -26
Pitt has been one of the most up-and-down teams in the nation this year, and following their blowout win against Virginia Tech last week, I’m up on them again! The Panthers have been a top-five team in the ACC since the return of Kenny Pickett, and while Clemson will pick up a commanding win in Trevor Lawrence’s return, it won’t be by the 26-point margin the experts set the odds at.
CSD Pick: Clemson 39, Pitt 25
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Pitt +26
#8 Northwestern (5-0 Big Ten) @ Michigan State (1-3 Big Ten)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Northwestern -10.5
Northwestern is legit. The game against Wisconsin last Saturday wasn’t pretty, but the Wildcats got the job done in a 17-7 win. I trust NU to avoid being caught sleeping, even on the road, and for the Wildcats to cover the 10.5 point spread against a bad Michigan State team.
CSD Pick: Northwestern 29, Michigan State 11
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Northwestern -10.5
Florida Atlantic (5-1, 4-1 C-USA) @ Middle Tennessee (3-6, 2-4 C-USA) – CANCELED
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -6.5
CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 27, Middle Tennessee 19
Troy (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (6-2, 4-1 Sun Belt)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -16.5
CSD Pick: Appalachian State 36, Troy 21
San Jose State (4-0, 4-0 MW) @ Boise State (4-1, 4-0 MW) – CANCELED
4 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Boise State -11.5
CSD Pick: Boise State 35, San Jose State 24
Mississippi State (2-5 SEC) @ Ole Miss (3-4 SEC)
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Ole Miss -10
CSD Pick: Ole Miss 35, Mississippi State 28
Rutgers (1-4 Big Ten) @ Purdue (2-2 Big Ten)
4 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Purdue -10.5
CSD Pick: Purdue 34, Rutgers 21
Louisville (3-6, 2-6 ACC) @ Boston College (5-4, 4-4 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Louisville -1
This should be one of the closer games of the day. Boston College has been one of the bigger surprises of the season. The offense is soli and the defense can force turnovers. Against a Louisville team that has taken a big step back this year, I expect the Golden Eagles to improve to 6-4, something that would have stunned me before the season.
CSD Pick: Boston College 30, Louisville 28
San Diego State (3-2) @ Colorado (2-0)
5 PM ET, Pac-12 Network
Vegas Line: Colorado -3
CSD Pick: Colorado 31, San Diego State 29
LSU (3-3 SEC) @ #5 Texas A&M (5-1 SEC)
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -14
Texas A&M seems to be in a decent position to capitalize if anyone in the top four slips up, but they have to avoid slipping up themselves. LSU is probably better than most people give them credit for, but on the road, I just can’t see them keeping up with A&M’s high powered offense. I expect the Aggies to improve to 6-1, as they now just sit and hope for some chaos in front of them.
CSD Pick: Texas A&M 38, LSU 25
Duke (2-6, 1-6 ACC) @ Georgia Tech (2-5, 2-4 ACC)
7 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Pick’em
CSD Pick: Georgia Tech 26, Duke 24
Kansas State (4-4, 4-3 Big 12) @ Baylor (1-5, 1-5 Big 12)
7 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Baylor -4.5
CSD Pick: Baylor 26, Kansas State 20
Memphis (5-2, 3-2 AAC) @ Navy (3-4, 3-2 AAC)
7 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Memphis -11.5
CSD Pick: Memphis 41, Navy 31
#9 Georgia (5-2 SEC) @ South Carolina (2-6 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -18.5
Georgia was one of the bigger surprises of the first CFP rankings. The Bulldogs seem likely to control their own destiny to a New Year’s Six bowl. They need to get through South Carolina on the road first, though. The Gamecocks struggled in their first game post-Will Muschamp, and Georgia looked great with QB JT Daniels at the helm. I don’t expect an upset.
CSD Pick: Georgia 31, South Carolina 16
Utah (0-1 Pac-12) @ Washington (2-0 Pac-12)
7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Washington -7
CSD Pick: Washington 32, Utah 25
TCU (3-4, 3-4 Big 12) @ Kansas (0-7, 0-6 Big 12)
8 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: TCU -24.5
CSD Pick: TCU 32, Kansas 11
Virginia (4-4, 3-4 ACC) @ Florida State (2-6, 1-6 ACC) – CANCELED
8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia -9.5
CSD Pick: Virginia 34, Florida State 24
Arizona (0-2 Pac-12) @ UCLA (1-2 Pac-12)
8 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: UCLA -9
CSD Pick: UCLA 36, Arizona 23
Nevada (5-0, 5-0 MW) @ Hawai’i (2-3, 2-3 MW)
11 PM ET, Spectrum
Vegas Line: Nevada -7
CSD Pick: Nevada 35, Hawai’i 28
Tuesday, December 1st
Western Kentucky (4-6, 3-3 C-USA) @ Charlotte (2-3, 2-1 C-USA)
10:30 AM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Pick’em
CSD Pick: Charlotte 25, Western Kentucky 23