Category: EVERYTHING

After plummeting following a loss to Mississippi State, LSU has returned to the top ten as almost every single team in front of them underperformed expectations. Even Oklahoma, which lost to Iowa State, underperformed expectations by a smaller margin than many similarly rated teams (UCF, Texas, North Carolina) and thus don’t drop at all. Check out the rankings here!

A note, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season, even if a team continues to lose (see: Oklahoma). Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily.

Rank	Team	Conf	CHANGE	YTD CHANGE
1	Alabama	SEC	1	0
2	Georgia	SEC	1	1
3	Clemson	ACC	-2	-1
4	Notre Dame	ACC	2	6
5	Florida	SEC	-1	0
6	Miami (FL)	ACC	3	16
7	Auburn	SEC	-2	1
8	Louisiana State	SEC	9	-1
9	Texas A&M	SEC	-2	-3
10	Oklahoma	Big 12	0	-6
11	Iowa State	Big 12	7	4
12	North Carolina	ACC	-4	0
13	Mississippi	SEC	8	11
14	Kentucky	SEC	-1	6
15	Tennessee	SEC	1	1
16	South Carolina	SEC	9	14
17	Oklahoma State	Big 12	5	-6
18	Brigham Young	Ind	6	22
19	Texas Christian	Big 12	13	7
20	Virginia Tech	ACC	-6	-7
21	Virginia	ACC	8	7
22	Cincinnati	AAC	-3	-8
23	Texas	Big 12	-12	-14
24	Tulsa	AAC	23	33
25	West Virginia	Big 12	3	9
26	Louisville	ACC	0	-8
27	Memphis	AAC	-7	-8
28	North Carolina State	ACC	10	10
29	Southern Methodist	AAC	14	2
30	Pittsburgh	ACC	-7	-5
31	Wake Forest	ACC	2	4
32	Central Florida	AAC	-20	-15
33	Mississippi State	SEC	-18	-1
34	Missouri	SEC	0	2
35	Baylor	Big 12	-5	-12
36	Arkansas	SEC	16	15
37	Kansas State	Big 12	-6	-8
38	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-11	3
39	Marshall	CUSA	-3	11
40	Texas Tech	Big 12	1	-1
41	Houston	AAC	-4	-4
42	Boston College	ACC	6	0
43	Georgia Tech	ACC	-3	2
44	Syracuse	ACC	-2	4
45	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-1	-18
46	Florida State	ACC	-11	-25
47	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-1	-14
48	Duke	ACC	7	-4
49	Tulane	AAC	0	-2
50	Georgia State	Sun Belt	9	14
51	Army	Ind	-6	11
52	Temple	AAC	-2	-3
53	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	13	16
54	Charlotte	CUSA	6	2
55	Texas State	Sun Belt	1	20
56	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-17	-1
57	Vanderbilt	SEC	-3	4
58	South Florida	AAC	6	1
59	South Alabama	Sun Belt	2	13
60	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-7	-8
61	Troy	Sun Belt	2	4
62	Florida International	CUSA	3	6
63	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-5	-5
64	East Carolina	AAC	-7	-4
65	Navy	AAC	-14	-22
66	Liberty	Ind	1	4
67	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-5	-21
68	Rice	CUSA	0	-2
69	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	3	-6
70	Kansas	Big 12	-1	-3
71	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-1	-17
72	North Texas	CUSA	2	1
73	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-2	-20
74	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-1	2
75	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	0	-4
76	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	0	-2

Winner: Georgia QB Stetson Bennett

We came into the season hyping Jamie Newman and JT Daniels, even D’Wan Mathis to an extent, but the spring #4, Stetson Bennett, has been aces through two games. Bennett led the Dawgs to a 27-6 win over a top-ten Auburn team on Saturday. Bennett is a Georgia QB, very much in the Jake Fromm prototype, so he won’t be the offense-changer Newman was expected to be, but he’s good, and he can lead this Georgia team to the College Football Playoff.

Winner: Tulsa

After Tulsa took College Football Playoff darkhorse Oklahoma State to the wire in their first game, the big takeaway was that the Pokes might not be very good. It turns out what we should’ve taken away is that this Tulsa team might be a contender in the AAC. The Golden Hurricane knocked off UCF for the fourth straight time on Saturday, breaking the Golden Knights’ long home winning streak. With Cincinnati in two weeks, we’ll see if this really is a potential AAC champion.

Loser: The Big 12

Oklahoma lost two games in a row for the first time since 1998, Texas lost to TCU, 2019 Big 12 runner-up Baylor lost to West Virginia. It was a rough day for the conference, whose best team is Oklahoma State… probably? The Pokes are solid, but not nearly good enough to run the table. I think the Big 12’s playoff hopes are dwindling.

Loser: The State of Texas (sans SMU)

Excluding the intra-state TCU vs Texas matchup, the Lone Star State’s College Football teams went 1-6 on Saturday. Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M got blown out by Alabama, Texas Tech, Baylor, UTSA, and Abilene Christian all lost, even a North Texas squad that looked to have some potential came up short against a bad Southern Miss team. Only Sonny Dykes’ SMU Mustangs carried the day, knocking off #25 Memphis 30-27.

Winner: Alabama QB Mac Jones

Tua Tagovailoa’s replacement didn’t have the same hype, but he’s been dynamite. Jones threw for 435 yards and four touchdowns against Texas A&M on Saturday, and the Tide look to be a favorite to make the College Football Playoff yet again.

Loser: Auburn QB Bo Nix

I’ve been a Bo Nix hater since the start, the Auburn QB has flashed, but is largely too inconsistent to ever be counted on as a National Title level QB. He proved it again on Saturday. After a good start to the year against Kentucky, Nix was 3/18 on passes of over 10 yards against Georgia according to an analysis done by Pro Football Focus. Ouch.

Winner: Arkansas

For the first time since October of 2017, three years ago, Arkansas beat a Power Five team, and at that, it was a ranked team, as the Razorbacks took down Mike Leach’s Mississippi State Bulldogs, 21-14. WPS.

Loser: The Group of Five’s Playoff Chances

It seemed like this could be the year, with two power conferences opting out. Then the Big Ten decided to come back. The Pac-12 followed. Now, the G5 school with the most name recognition and talent, UCF, is out. Cincinnati is good, but without an unbeaten foe to go after and no power five non-conference games, it isn’t happening. The dream will have to wait a little longer.

Winner: BYU QB Zach Wilson

Wilson has been electric through three games, and his Cougars have a great shot to run the table and make a New Year’s Six bowl for the first time in program history. The QB has been the best in the G5 by a wide margin and should earn some Heisman hype.

Loser: North Dakota State QB Trey Lance

North Dakota State decided to play one game this fall, and highly touted NFL draft prospect Trey Lance got his chance to shine against Central Arkansas. He looked… fine; winning the game and making some plays with his feet but throwing his first career interception and plenty of inaccurate throws. Expect Lance to slide down NFL draft boards in the coming days.

Winner: SMU

The Ponies became the only 4-0 team in the country with a late 30-27 win over then-#25 Memphis on Saturday, and they look to be real contenders in the American this year. Sonny Dykes has had an awesome start to his tenure in Dallas.

Winner: Air Force

The Falcons have two weeks off before Moutain West play begins October 24th, but they got a nice tune-up on Saturday. Scratch that. They dominated Navy. Like, straight ran them out of the yard. The Falcons picked up their first win of the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy Series, a 40-7 win over the Midshipmen, who have had a crazy up-and-down year to date.

Loser: ULM

The Warhawks lost to a UTEP team thought to be the worst in the country last week, but this week might have been even worse, as driving, down five against Georgia Southern, ULM QB Colby Suits was stopped just shy of the goal line with no timeouts, time expired, and the WarHawks fell to 0-4. Heartbreaking.

Big Ten and Pac-12 teams (along with Mountain West teams, MAC teams, and UMass) are now eligible for the AP top 25, but many are curious as to what the rankings would look like without the teams that haven’t played yet. Below you will find this week’s AP top 25 without such teams.

1. Clemson (NC)
2. Alabama (NC)
3. Georgia (+1)
4. Florida (-1)
5. Notre Dame (NC)
6. Miami (+1)
7. North Carolina (+3)
8. Oklahoma State (+6)
9. Cincinnati (+3)
10. Auburn (-4)
11. Tennessee (+6)
12. BYU (+6)
13. LSU (+3)
14. SMU (+10)
15. Virginia Tech (+6)
16. Texas A&M (-5)
17. Texas (-9)
18. Louisiana (+4)
19. Iowa State (NEW)
20. Kansas State (+3)
21. Mississippi State (-8)
22. UCF (-13)
23. TCU (NEW)
24. Marshall (+1)
25. Tulsa (NEW)
    

Dropped Out: #15 Oklahoma, #19 Pitt, #20 Memphis

After the SEC kicked off their season last week, they will take center stage once again as #13 Texas A&M will take on #2 Alabama and #7 Auburn will take on #4 Georgia. Also on the docket:

• Ole Miss and Kentucky square off after dropping games to top-ten foes in their openers, both looking to avoid an 0-2 start
• #18 Oklahoma tries to rebound from last week’s loss as they travel to Ames to face Iowa State
• #1 Clemson gets their first test of the year against unbeaten Virginia
• After a close scare last week, #9 Texas looks to get things back on track against TCU
• #21 Tennessee will try to hold onto their spot in the crowded top 25 against Missouri
• Will Muschamp will try to get one over on his former employer as South Carolina takes on #3 Florida
• A showdown between the #3 and #4 in the American as #25 Memphis takes on SMU

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 64-15 (81%)
ATS Best Bets: 15-4 (+NINE UNITS!!!)
ATS Total: 43-32-4
Last Week
Straight Up: 26-4 (87%)
ATS Best Bets: 5-1 (!!!)
ATS Total: 20-7-3 (!!!)

Best Bets

Arkansas State (-3) @ Coastal Carolina – 12 PM ET, ESPN2
#13 Texas A&M (+17.5) @ #2 Alabama – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
#25 Memphis (-2.5) @ SMU – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Virginia Tech (-9.5) @ Duke – 4 PM ET, ACC Network
Navy (+2) @ Air Force – 6 PM ET, CBSSN
Georgia Southern (-15.5) @ ULM – 7 PM ET, ESPN+
Virginia (+30.5) @ #1 Clemson – 8 PM ET, ACC Network

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Friday, October 2nd

Campbell (0-3) @ Wake Forest (0-2)
7 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Wake Forest -34.5

CSD Pick: Wake Forest 35, Campbell 5

Louisiana Tech (2-0) @ #22 BYU (2-0)
9 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: BYU -24

CSD Pick: BYU 38, Louisiana Tech 15

Saturday, October 3rd

South Carolina (0-1 SEC) @ #3 Florida (1-0 SEC)

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -18.5

South Carolina may have come up short against Tennessee in their season opener, but they looked great in the process, narrowly falling 31-27 to the then-#16 Volunteers, and moving into the CSD Prime computer model top 25. The Gamecocks aren’t going to beat Florida on the road here, the Gators are a legit top-five team, but don’t be surprised if this is closer than the experts think.

CSD Pick: Florida 31, South Carolina 15

TCU (0-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ #9 Texas (2-0, 1-0 Big 12)

12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Texas -13

Texas *really* struggled last week against Texas Tech, needing overtime to beat a Red Raider team that could barely get by Houston Baptist. On the other side, TCU found their quarterback. Max Duggan didn’t start, but he looked great in relief after being cleared to play following a heart diagnosis that put his season in doubt. Texas is more talented here, and they’re at home, but don’t be surprised if this is close down to the wire.

CSD Pick: Texas 32, TCU 21

Missouri (0-1 SEC) @ #21 Tennessee (1-0 SEC)

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -10.5

Tennessee looked a little shaky last week against South Carolina, but they’ll have a chance to correct that as they take on 0-1 Missouri at home. Mizzou covered against Alabama last week, but with most of Eli Drinkwitz’s boys’ production in garbage time, it’s hard to tell how “real” the 19 points they scored were. I expect the Mizzou defense to be good, but the gap on offense is just too big. I’m taking Jarrett Guarantano and the Vols at home.

CSD Pick: Tennessee 25, Missouri 15

NC State (1-1, 1-1 ACC) @ #24 Pitt (3-0, 2-0 ACC)
12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pitt -14

CSD Pick: Pitt 25, NC State 15

East Carolina (0-1) @ Georgia State (0-1)
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Georgia State -1

CSD Pick: Georgia State 30, East Carolina 28

Arkansas State (1-1) @ Coastal Carolina (2-0)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Arkansas State -3

What may be a pivotal game in the Sun Belt race will get national attention in the noon slot. Both of these teams made headlines for beating Big 12 foes earlier this year, and while Arkansas State is the team with the loss and on the road, they are just a much more talented team than the Chanticleers. Arkansas State WR Jonathan Adams is great, and Vidal Scott is a monstrous presence off the edge. The Red Wolves should easily cover three.

CSD Pick: Arkansas State 33, Coastal Carolina 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Arkansas State -3

Baylor (1-0, 1-0 Big 12) @ West Virginia (1-1, 0-1 Big 12)
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Baylor -3

CSD Pick: West Virginia 23, Baylor 22

UTSA (3-0, 1-0 C-USA) @ UAB (2-1)
12:30 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: UAB –18.5

CSD Pick: UAB 34, UTSA 10

North Alabama @ Liberty (2-0)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -30.5

CSD Pick: Liberty 45, North Alabama 13

Abilene Christian (0-1) @ Army (2-1)
1:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Army -31

CSD Pick: Army 43, Abilene Christian 14

#13 Texas A&M (1-0 SEC) @ #2 Alabama (1-0 SEC)

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama -17.5

So…. yeah. I’ve been high on Texas A&M all offseason, had them ranked 6th in the preseason, called them a playoff contender, and they go out in their first game and struggle mightily with a Vanderbilt team that might not win a game this year. The final score was 17-12. Ok. So that’s not great. Especially not for a team that’s supposed to be an offensive juggernaut, but these are the types of kinks you work out in week one.

The Crimson Tide looked great in their first game, there were some holes on defense, Malachi Moore struggled, but the offense was superb. QB Mac Jones had the performance of the week at the QB spot, earning a 93.4 grade from PFF; Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Najee Harris also all impressed. I mean, Alabama is going to be good this year, not necessarily because they’ll be “playing angry” like the media narrative, but mostly because this is just a really good group of guys. That being said, I think A&M covers here. Kellen Mond played the worst game of his life against Arkansas, and he will be out to prove week one was an aberration, and so, stubbornly, I’ll take the Aggies to cover the 17.5

CSD Pick: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Texas A&M +17.5

#12 North Carolina (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ Boston College (2-0, 1-0 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: North Carolina -11.5

CSD Pick: North Carolina 37, Boston College 24

USF (1-1) @ #15 Cincinnati (2-0)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -21.5

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 35, USF 14

#17 Oklahoma State (2-0, 1-0 Big 12) @ Kansas (0-2, 0-1 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State –21

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 38, Kansas 14

#25 Memphis (1-0) @ SMU (3-0)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Memphis -2.5

Memphis is dealing with the aftermath of a COVID outbreak on the team, but unless half the team is out, there is no way the line should be this low. I’ve exploited Vegas overreacting to COVID outbreaks in the past, including with Louisiana Tech and Virginia Tech in recent weeks, and I think this is another repeat. QB Brady White will be great for Memphis, and the Tigers will roll, but the real winners will be the viewers. These two teams had an epic 54-48 shootout last year.

CSD Pick: Memphis 43, SMU 33

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Memphis -2.5

Texas Tech (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ Kansas State (1-1, 1-0 Big 12)
3:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Kansas State -3

CSD Pick: Kansas State 34, Texas Tech 29

Charlotte (0-1) @ Florida Atlantic
4 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -7

CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 35, Charlotte 30

Virginia Tech (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ Duke (0-3, 0-3 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -9.5

What?? This line is insane. Jump on it before it moves. Duke is the worst team in the ACC, one that just turned the ball over seven times against Virginia. Virginia Tech is a top-15 team in the country in my estimation. I jumped all over VT -7 against NC State last week, and the Hokies won by triple that, expect a similar result here.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 36, Duke 18

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia Tech -9.5

Ole Miss (0-1 SEC) @ Kentucky (0-1 SEC)

4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Kentucky -7

Both of these teams dropped their openers to top-ten foes and need a victory to avoid an 0-2 start to the year, so the stakes are very high in this one. Ole Miss’ offense, especially the passing game, looked awesome against Florida, but the defense just wasn’t there. Kentucky doesn’t have that issue. The Wildcats are a well-rounded, a fundamentally solid team, and they are at home. They should pick up the win here, but an upset is a real possibility. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral was bonkers in the opener.

CSD Pick: Kentucky 34, Ole Miss 28

Jacksonville State @ Florida State (0-2)
4 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Florida State -26.5

CSD Pick: Florida State 38, Jacksonville State 11

WKU (0-2) @ Middle Tennessee (0-3, 0-1 C-USA)
5 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: WKU -7

CSD Pick: WKU 30, Middle Tennessee 25

Navy (1-1) @ Air Force
6 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: Air Force -2

Air Force will return earlier than the rest of the MWC as they take on rival Navy here. The Falcons won’t have their QB here, and they’re top returning receiver had three catches last year, so the passing game will be non-existent. I don’t expect either of these teams to be good this year, but I’ll take Navy, the devil I know, plus the points.

CSD Pick: Navy 25, Air Force 23

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Navy +2

Georgia Southern (1-1, 0-1 Sun Belt) @ ULM (0-3, 0-1 Sun Belt)
7 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -15.5

ULM is perhaps the worst FBS team in the country, while Georgia Southern almost upset a top-25 team last week. Eagles QB Shai Werts is a star, and 15.5 points is much too short of a line. Werts and company should easily cover that number and pick up their first Sun Belt victory this year.

CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 37, ULM 15

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Georgia Southern -15.5

#7 Auburn (1-0, 1-0 SEC) @ #4 Georgia (1-0, 1-0 SEC)

7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Georgia -7

Ok, so, I like Georgia here. The defense is amazing, maybe the best in the country. Richard LeCounte is a star, they are at home, BUT. It is tough to pick a team when I have no idea who the quarterback will be. Jamie Newman opted out before the season, and replacement D’Wan Mathis wasn’t good in the opener, he got benched. In came Stetson Bennett (who was fourth on the depth chart in the summer), who rocked, throwing for 211 yards and two touchdowns. So, you would think Bennett gets the nod this week? Maybe not, as USC transfer JT Daniels has been medically cleared to play.

I like Bennett better than Daniels personally, but the Dawgs still haven’t said who is playing, or if they’ll rotate between the two (or 3)! I’m still not sold on Bo Nix throwing against elite SEC defenses like Georgia and for that reason, I’m taking UGA, but, for the love of god Kirby Smart, pick a QB.

CSD Pick: Georgia 27, Auburn 21

Tulsa (0-1) @ #11 UCF (2-0, 1-0 American)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: UCF -21

CSD Pick: UCF 44, Tulsa 26

Arkansas (0-1 SEC) @ #16 Mississippi State (1-0 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Mississippi State -17.5

CSD Pick: Mississippi State 40, Arkansas 19

#18 Oklahoma (1-1, 0-1 Big 12) @ Iowa State (1-1, 1-0 Big 12)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -8.5

Oklahoma, after dropping their Big 12 opener to Kansas State last week, needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They take on an Iowa State team not unfamiliar with embarrassing losses, the Cyclones were the biggest casualty of week two, they lost to Louisiana, 31-14.

I like this Iowa State team more than most, but Lincoln Riley is too good of a coach to lose two in a row. He will have his guys fired up and ready to go, QB Spencer Rattler will return to the prospect he’s touted as being, and the Sooners will get things back on track.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 28

#20 LSU (0-1 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-1 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: LSU -20.5

CSD Pick: LSU 37, Vanderbilt 16

Southern Miss (0-3, 0-1 C-USA) @ North Texas (1-1)
7:30 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: North Texas -1.5

CSD Pick: Southern Miss 32, North Texas 31

Virginia (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ #1 Clemson (2-0, 1-0 ACC)

8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Clemson -30.5

You don’t need me to tell you how good Clemson is. QB Trevor Lawrence is the best player in the country, DT Jordan Williams and MLB James Skalski are All-American contenders, the offensive line is great, this is the best team in the country, and they are beating Virginia at home. Going into any more depth on that would be boring, so instead, I’ll focus on why I think Virginia will cover the massive 30.5-point spread.

The Cavaliers lost star Bryce Perkins coming into this year, but new QB Brennan Armstrong looks to be a better passer than Perkins by a significant margin and RB Wayne Taulapapa seems to have finally stepped into a true #1 role. The linebacking corps, with Nick Jackson, Zane Zandier, and Charles Snowden, competes with the best in the conference, and I think the Cavs’ safety duo can keep Lawrence from going completely insane. This Virginia team is good, and while they’ll lose, they shouldn’t be underdogs by this margin.

CSD Pick: Clemson 43, Virginia 19

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia +30.5

Winner: Mississippi State QB KJ Costello

Saturday was Mississipi State quarterback KJ Costello’s first game in the SEC. He broke the SEC passing record. Under Mike Leach’s air raid system, Costello balled out for 623 yards and five touchdowns in the Bulldogs’ 44-34 win over #6 LSU. There were some problems with accuracy at times, but Costello looks to be a star.

Loser: The Big 12

The conference, which has already looked poor with three teams dropping non-con matchups vs Sun Belt teams, took another hit, as conference favorite Oklahoma lost to Kansas State, and #2 Texas needed overtime to beat a Texas Tech team that almost lost to Houston Baptist. Even in a season where the Pac-12 or Big Ten champ may play just five or six games factoring in cancellations, the Big 12 may still be left out of the playoff.

Winner: UCF (or Cincinnati)’s Playoff Chances

The Golden Knights are projected to finish the 2020 season with an 8-1 record by the CSD Prime computer model. No team in the country is projected to go undefeated in more than 50% of simulations as of now, but UCF is the fourth most likely team to do it, behind BYU, Clemson, and Marshall. That means all UCF has to do is overperform expectations by one game, win the AAC title game, and they are unbeaten for the third time in four years.

Now, it’s still a tough road, but with Oklahoma losing and the Big Ten/Pac-12 playing such shortened seasons, a group of five playoff bid is likelier than ever. Very, very unlikely, but likelier than ever. And that’s if the playoff doesn’t expand, which feels like a very real possibility that is rarely mentioned.

Winner: Alabama QB Mac Jones

Mac Jones tightened his grip on Alabama’s starting QB job on Saturday against Missouri, throwing for 249 yards and two touchdowns on just 24 throws in the Tide’s season-opening victory. Five-star freshman Bryce Young threw for just over 50 yards in relief.

Loser: Florida State

Its been a bad few years in Tallahassee, but Saturday’s 52-10 loss to rival Miami in primetime may be a new low point. Granted, head coach Mike Norvell was out with COVID, but that rivalry game should be a lot closer than that. Right now, the CSD Prime model rates Florida State’s average projected record at 4-7, meaning a third straight losing season is much more likely than not.

Winner: Virginia Tech

The Hokies were down 23 players and two coaches against NC State on Saturday and still rolled, crushing the 1-0 Wolfpack 45-24. This team is a lot more experienced than the 2019 squad that lost to Virginia for the first time in a decade and a half, and I expect them to compete for the #2 spot in the ACC with Notre Dame, North Carolina, an Miami.

Loser: Georgia and Texas A&M’s Offenses

Two teams that I figured could be national title dark horses looked terrible on the offensive end on Saturday, combining for 12 first-half points. By midgame, Georgia was relegated to their summer depth chart’s #4 QB, Stetson Bennett, after Jamie Newman’s opt-out, JT Daniels’ injury, and D’Wan Mathis’ benching. He was thrust into the spotlight midgame, but Bennett looked much better than Mathis despite some mistakes, and the Bulldogs rallied to end up winning by a respectable margin. We’ll see if he can keep his job when JT Daniels is cleared to return.

Meanwhile, A&M fumbled four times and Kellen Mond added an interception for good measure against an Arkansas team that may go winless this year. The Aggies barely survived, 17-12. Yikes.

Winner(s): Florida QB Kyle Trask & Florida TE Kyle Pitts

Florida’s Kyle-to-Kyle connection was on fire on Saturday in a 51-35 victory over Ole Miss. Pitts caught eight passes for 170 yards and four touchdowns and looks to be the key to UF’s SEC title hope. Not to mention, Trask looked like he may be the best QB in the conference. Things are looking up in Gainesville.

Loser: UCF’s Penalties

The Golden Knights are talented enough that they manhandled East Carolina 51-28 despite it, but UCF racked up 19 penalties, good for 139 yards, including ten (!) in the first quarter. It’s fine against ECU, but against the American’s best, that isn’t going to fly.

Winner: UTEP

Over the past two years, UTEP won a combined two games. Four games into 2019 and the Miners have already won three. Granted, it was against two FCS teams and the worst team in FBS, but its progress nevertheless.

Loser: Georgia Tech

It’s still year two under the new system, granted, but its been a hard fall for the Yellow Jackets after the season-opening win over Florida State. Tech dropped their second game against UCF and then was throttled by Syracuse, 37-20. Freshman QB Jeff Sims threw four interceptions in the loss. The Yellow Jackets are now projected to go 4-7 (on average) in the CSD Prime model after a promising start.

Loser: Duke

After giving Notre Dame more fight than expected in week one, I had relatively high hopes for this Duke team, but against Virginia on Saturday, the Blue Devils looked atrocious. QB Chase Brice completed less than 50% of his passes and threw four interceptions. All in all, Duke finished with seven turnovers. Seven. David Cutcliffe’s squad is now rated out as the worst team in the conference by the CSD Prime model, with an average projected record of 2-9.

Winner: Louisiana K Nate Snyder

Louisiana kicker Nate Snyder has had a rough go of things to start 2020, he entered the Cajun’s week four game against Georgia Southern 1-for-4 on the year. He redeemed himself, though, nailing a 53-yarder to beat the Eagles, 20-18, keeping the Cajuns unbeaten.

Big Ten and Pac-12 teams (along with Mountain West teams, MAC teams, and UMass) were eligible for the AP top 25 for the first time since the preseason this week, but many are curious as to what the rankings would look like without the teams that haven’t played yet. Below you will find this week’s AP top 25 without such teams.

1) Clemson (NC)
2) Alabama (NC)
3) Florida (+2)
4) Georgia (NC)
5) Notre Dame (+2)
6) Auburn (+2)
7) Miami (+5)
8) Texas (NC)
9) UCF (+4)
10) North Carolina (+1)
11) Texas A&M (-1)
12) Cincinnati (+2)
13) Mississippi State (NEW)
14) Oklahoma State (+1)
15) Oklahoma (-12)
16) LSU (-10)
17) Tennessee (-1)
18) BYU (NC)
19) Pitt (+2)
20) Memphis (-3)
21) Virginia Tech (-1)
22) Louisiana (-3)
23) Kansas State (NEW)
24) SMU (NEW)
25) Marshall (NC)

Dropped Out: #22 Army, #23 Kentucky, #24 Pitt

Others receiving >10 points: Baylor, Virginia, Arkansas State

Rank	Team	Conf	Change	YTD CHANGE
1	Clemson	ACC	1	1
2	Alabama	SEC	-1	-1
3	Georgia	SEC	0	0
4	Florida	SEC	1	1
5	Auburn	SEC	3	3
6	Notre Dame	ACC	4	4
7	Texas A&M	SEC	-1	-1
8	North Carolina	ACC	3	4
9	Miami (FL)	ACC	8	13
10	Oklahoma	Big 12	-6	-6
11	Texas	Big 12	-2	-2
12	Central Florida	AAC	0	5
13	Kentucky	SEC	5	7
14	Virginia Tech	ACC	-1	-1
15	Mississippi State	SEC	17	17
16	Tennessee	SEC	-1	0
17	Louisiana State	SEC	-10	-10
18	Iowa State	Big 12	3	-3
19	Cincinnati	AAC	-5	-5
20	Memphis	AAC	-1	-1
21	Mississippi	SEC	1	3
22	Oklahoma State	Big 12	-6	-11
23	Pittsburgh	ACC	1	2
24	Brigham Young	Ind	6	16
25	South Carolina	SEC	4	5
26	Louisville	ACC	-3	-8
27	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	8	14
28	West Virginia	Big 12	3	6
29	Virginia	ACC	-2	-1
30	Baylor	Big 12	-10	-7
31	Kansas State	Big 12	10	-2
32	Texas Christian	Big 12	-7	-6
33	Wake Forest	ACC	1	2
34	Missouri	SEC	4	2
35	Florida State	ACC	-9	-14
36	Marshall	CUSA	7	14
37	Houston	AAC	3	0
38	North Carolina State	ACC	4	0
39	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	5	16
40	Georgia Tech	ACC	-3	5
41	Texas Tech	Big 12	4	-2
42	Syracuse	ACC	4	6
43	Southern Methodist	AAC	-4	-12
44	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-11	-17
45	Army	Ind	9	17
46	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-18	-13
47	Tulsa	AAC	0	10
48	Boston College	ACC	-12	-6
49	Tulane	AAC	4	-2
50	Temple	AAC	-2	-1
51	Navy	AAC	-2	-8
52	Arkansas	SEC	-1	-1
53	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-1	-1
54	Vanderbilt	SEC	8	7
55	Duke	ACC	-5	-11
56	Texas State	Sun Belt	14	19
57	East Carolina	AAC	3	3
58	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	10	0
59	Georgia State	Sun Belt	5	5
60	Charlotte	CUSA	-3	-4
61	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-3	11
62	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-7	-16
63	Troy	Sun Belt	-4	2
64	South Florida	AAC	-1	-5
65	Florida International	CUSA	4	3
66	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	0	3
67	Liberty	Ind	-2	3
68	Rice	CUSA	-1	-2
69	Kansas	Big 12	2	-2
70	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-15	-17
71	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-9	-17
72	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	2	-9
73	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	3	3
74	North Texas	CUSA	-2	-1
75	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-2	-4
76	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-1	-2

The SEC will kick off their season in week four in a slate highlighted by #23 Kentucky @ #8 Auburn, in a chance to see Bo Nix and the Tigers under new OC Chad Morris. Also on the slate:

• #24 Louisville looks to recover from a disastrous defensive performance @ #21 Pitt
• Lane Kiffin debuts as the coach of Ole Miss hosting #5 Florida
• Iowa State, upset by Louisiana, and #15 Oklahoma State, almost upset by Tulsa, look to put their seasons back on the right path against TCU and West Virginia, respectively
• Defending national champions #6 LSU open their year hosting Mississippi State in the SEC debut for Mike Leach
• #14 Cincinnati looks to claim the status of AAC frontrunners hosting #22 Army
• Will Muschamp, on the hot seat, looks to secure a big win at home against the hyped #16 Tennessee Volunteers
• #12 Miami gets the College Gameday/ABC Primetime game for the second week in a row, as the red hot ‘Canes host a Mike Norvell-less Florida State team flailing following a week two loss to Georgia Tech

2020 Prediction Stats

Straight Up: 38-11 (78%)
ATS Best Bets: 10-3 (+6.1 units)

Best Bets

UAB (-6) @ South Alabama – 7:30 PM ET, ESPN (Thursday)
Charlotte (+2.5) vs Georgia State – 12 PM ET, ESPNU CANCELLED
Mississippi State (+18.5) @ #6 LSU – 3:30 PM ET, CBS
#8 Texas (-16) @ Texas Tech – 3:30 PM ET, FOX
#14 Cincinnati (-11.5) vs #22 Army – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Virginia (-5.5) vs Duke – 4 PM ET, ACC Network
#20 Virginia Tech (-7) vs NC State – 8 PM ET, ACC Network

Note: All projected scores are based on 1,000 simulations of the CSD Prime computer model – with some leeway for tweaks in the event of circumstances the model can’t pick up (e.g. injury)

Thursday, September 24th

UAB (1-1) @ South Alabama (1-1)
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: UAB -6

Week four kicks off on Thursday night with Conference USA favorites UAB taking on a team that has outplayed their expectations so far, the South Alabama Jaguars. I said coming into the year that there is potential on this USA team, and they’ve shown it even sooner than I would’ve expected, but six points is way too short of a line here. UAB may lose QB Tyler Johnston III to injury, but backup Bryson Lucero has been good in his limited opportunities, and the UAB defense, which was top-25 in the nation last year, should hold the Jaguar offense to under 20 points in the win.

CSD Pick: UAB 32, South Alabama 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – UAB -6

Friday, September 25th

Middle Tennessee (0-2) @ UTSA (2-0)
8 PM ET, CBSSN
Vegas Line: UTSA -6.5

CSD Pick: UTSA 30, Middle Tennessee 26

Saturday, September 26th

Kansas State (0-1) @ #3 Oklahoma (1-0)
12 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Oklahoma -26.5

CSD Pick: Oklahoma 43, Kansas State 18

#5 Florida @ Ole Miss

12 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Florida -13

For Lane Kiffin, getting a win in his Ole Miss debut could prove to be a tough challenge, as the Rebels will face Kyle Trask and a Florida team that many see as a national title contender. I’m a big fan of Ole Miss this year, Matt Corral and John Rhys Plumlee are two solid pieces for the offense, but in game one, Trask (2,941 yards, 25 touchdowns) will throw all over a bad Ole Miss secondary, and the Gators should carry this one by double digits.

CSD Pick: Florida 37, Ole Miss 24

#23 Kentucky @ #8 Auburn

12 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Auburn -8

The game of the day, in my view, as a Kentucky team that closed out 2019 with five wins in a row travels to face now-sophomore QB Bo Nix and new offensive coordinator Chad Morris. Kentucky will get QB Terry Wilson back for this one, he missed much of last year with a season-ending injury which saw WR Lynn Bowden Jr. take over the QB role. I like Kentucky a lot this year, but they are on the road against a much more talented team. WR Seth Williams and RB DJ Williams are a pair of excellent returnees in the skill corps for Auburn, and I expect the Tigers to win, although if the Wildcats can force some turnovers, an upset is not out of the question.

CSD Pick: Auburn 30, Kentucky 23

#13 UCF (1-0) @ East Carolina
12 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: UCF -25.5

CSD Pick: UCF 50, East Carolina 25

Georgia Southern (1-0) @ #19 Louisiana (2-0, 1-0 Sun Belt)
12 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: Louisiana -15

CSD Pick: Louisiana 38, Georgia Southern 20

#24 Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ACC) @ #21 Pitt (2-0, 1-0 ACC)

12 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Pitt -3.5

The second ranked-vs-ranked matchup of the day comes from the ACC as #24 Louisville, fresh off of a loss to Miami, attempts to avoid an 0-2 start to ACC play as they travel to take on #21 Pitt. The offense for Louisville looked good last week, the defense? Not so much. The Cards were gashed for 7.9 yards per play, and I expect Pitt QB Kenny Pickett to pick this UL defense apart (pun intended). The Panthers’ awesome edge rush won’t give Micale Cunnigam room to breathe, and the defense, which held Syracuse to just 171 yards last Sunday, will stifle the potent UL offense. This will be tight, but I’m taking the Panthers.

CSD Pick: Pitt 29, Louisville 27

Georgia Tech (1-1, 1-0 ACC) @ Syracuse (0-2, 0-2 ACC)
12 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech -7.5

CSD Pick: Georgia Tech 28, Syracuse 22

Georgia State (0-1) @ Charlotte (0-1) CANCELLED
12 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Georgia State -2.5

The combination of Charlotte needing to cancel their week three game due to COVID concerns and Georgia State’s strong showing against Louisiana last week meant the line for this one was bet all the way up to Georgia State being favored by 2.5. Charlotte’s COVID problems seem to be over, and I think GaSt’s strong showing against ULL last week was more a result of the Cajuns being complacent after being the media darlings post-week two than anything else. I’ll take the better team, at home, getting points.

CSD Pick: Charlotte 30, Georgia State 29

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Charlotte +2.5

Campbell (0-2) @ Appalachian State (1-1)
12 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: Appalachian State -35.5

CSD Pick: Appalachian State 45, Campbell 8

FIU @ Liberty (1-0)
1 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Liberty -7

CSD Pick: Liberty 33, FIU 28

Iowa State (0-1) @ TCU

1:30 PM ET, FS1
Vegas Line: Iowa State -2.5

This game is wild. Iowa State, especially star QB Brock Purdy, did not look up to par in week one against Louisiana, but TCU is starting a former walk-on, Matthew Downing at QB and have missed a ton of practices due to COVID concerns. ISU is off a bye, and TCU hasn’t played a game yet. My pick for this game is mostly just the shrug emoji, but I’ll err on the side of Iowa State, a team I would’ve said was significantly better in the preseason, coming out angry after their week one loss and putting the boots to a TCU team that could have a lot of players out due to COVID. Give me Iowa State, but close.

CSD Pick: Iowa State 25, TCU 23

Mississippi State @ #6 LSU

3:30 PM ET, CBS
Vegas Line: LSU -18.5

The debut for Mike Leach in the SEC is going to be rough, as his Mississippi State Bulldogs will travel to the defending national champions for the 3:30 CBS SEC game. LSU will be a good team this year, but there is so much turnover from last year’s roster, and without spring practices to get the new starters familiar with the system, I worry about LSU, but on the other side, Mississippi State is installing an entirely new system.

LSU’s talent, especially on defense, will win the day, but I expect the new Mike Leach passing attack to put up points, and always take the points in a shootout. Give me LSU straight up, but Leach to cover the 18.5 fairly easily in his debut.

CSD Pick: LSU 40, Mississippi State 26

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Mississippi State +18.5

#8 Texas (1-0) @ Texas Tech (1-0)
3:30 PM ET, FOX
Vegas Line: Texas -16

Texas Tech’s defense has been a joke for a while, but they were especially atrocious in their season opener, giving up 572 passing yards to Houston Baptist and needing a last-second two-point conversion stop to avoid overtime against the FCS foe. Texas should easily cover the 18-point spread, even on the road.

CSD Pick: Texas 44, Texas Tech 25

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Texas -16

#22 Army (2-0) @ #14 Cincinnati (1-0)

3:30 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Cincinnati -11.5

Our first big group of five clash of the year, as 2-0 Army runs into a Cincinnati team that I called a darkhorse playoff contender before the year. Army is good, the attack looks great this year and seems to not have dropped off after losing a lot of pieces from last year, but their two dominant wins have come against Middle Tennessee State and UL-Monroe, not exactly powerhouses. I have faith in QB Desmond Ridder and the rest of this Cincy team to handle this one with relative ease.

CSD Pick: Cincinnati 35, Army 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Cincinnati -11.5

West Virginia (1-0) @ #15 Oklahoma State (1-0)

3:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -8

This game intrigues me a lot. Oklahoma State looked terrible last week against Tulsa, and I’m not sure if the result of that will be the Cowboys coming out with their heads hung or going out to try and prove the doubters wrong here. West Virginia looked good in their season-opening 56-10 win over Eastern Kentucky, but I just don’t have a lot of faith in the West Virginia offense, which struggled mightily last year. Give me OSU to bounce back.

CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 30, West Virginia 21

UTEP (2-1) @ UL Monroe (0-2)
3:30 PM ET, ESPN2
Vegas Line: UL Monroe -8

CSD Pick: UL Monroe 28, UTEP 22

#4 Georgia @ Arkansas
4 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Georgia -24

CSD Pick: Georgia 41, Arkansas 12

Duke (0-2, 0-2 ACC) @ Virginia
4 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia –5.5

The defending ACC Coastal Champs open their season against an 0-2 Duke team that has really struggled out of the gate. I get the idea that Duke has had two games to figure things out while UVa is coming in blind here, but this Virginia team, even without Bryce Perkins, is just too good. The Duke pass defense has struggled, and I really like new Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong’s arm strength (no pun intended). The WaHoos should easily cover 5.5.

CSD Pick: Virginia 27, Duke 17

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia -5.5

Texas State (1-2) @ Boston College (1-0)
6 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Boston College -17.5

CSD Pick: Boston College 37, Texas State 19

#2 Alabama @ Missouri
7 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: Alabama -28

CSD Pick: Alabama 42, Missouri 17

Houston Baptist (0-2) @ Louisiana Tech (1-0)
7 PM ET, ESPN3
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech -23.5

CSD Pick: Louisiana Tech 43, Houston Baptist 15

Tulane (1-1) @ Southern Miss (0-2)
7 PM ET, Stadium
Vegas Line: Tulane -3

CSD Pick: Tulane 30, Southern Miss 26

Stephen F. Austin (0-2) @ SMU (2-0)
7 PM ET, ESPN+
Vegas Line: SMU -34.5

CSD Pick: SMU 50, Stephen F. Austin 10

Vanderbilt @ #10 Texas A&M
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate
Vegas Line: Texas A&M -30

CSD Pick: Texas A&M 38, Vanderbilt 6

Florida State (0-1, 0-1 ACC) @ #12 Miami (2-0, 1-0 ACC)

7:30 PM ET, ABC
Vegas Line: Miami -7

The ABC primetime/College Gameday game for week four comes from the ACC yet again, as 0-1 Florida State travels to Coral Gables to take on Miami. Its been a rough going for the ‘Noles. Many hoped that the hiring of Mike Norvell would’ve turned things around, but 2020 has been just as disastrous as the past few years. The program was embroiled in offseason scandal, FSU opened their year with a gutting home loss to projected ACC bottom-feeder Georgia Tech, and Mike Norvell contracted the coronavirus. Of course, I wish Norvell a very speedy recovery.

On the field, FSU is just as talented as Miami, but the ‘Noles just haven’t been able to put the pieces together. QB James Blackman is better than given credit for, but he’s no D’Eriq King. The FSU offensive line will struggle again- Jaelan Phillips and Anthony Russo will wreak havoc behind the line of scrimmage- and the ‘Canes will pick up another victory in primetime heading into their week six clash with Clemson.

CSD Pick: Miami 31, Florida State 22

#16 Tennessee @ South Carolina

7:30 PM ET, SEC Network
Vegas Line: Tennessee -3

This is another game that really intrigues me. Tennessee comes into the game ranked 16th, the receivers of massive hype in the offseason, but they have to open with a hungry South Carolina team, looking for a win. Lord knows head coach Will Muschamp desperately needs a big one. The defense for USC is solid, but I don’t have a ton of faith in new starting quarterback Collin Hill in game one. Hill, a Colorado State transfer, struggled mightily with throwing picks against Mountain West D-backs, I don’t expect his luck against SEC ones to be much better.

The linebacking corps of Tennessee should control the game, and I have faith in the Tennessee offense, led by their excellent offensive line, to put up enough points to get a close win in what will be a very low-scoring affair.

CSD Pick: Tennessee 24, South Carolina 19

Kansas (0-1) @ Baylor
7:30 PM ET, ESPNU
Vegas Line: Baylor -18.5

CSD Pick: Baylor 41, Kansas 18

NC State (1-0, 1-0 ACC) @ #20 Virginia Tech
8 PM ET, ACC Network
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech –7

Virginia Tech is the only ACC school other than Virginia that has yet to play a game, and I’m picking the Hokies to smack an NC State team that let up 42 points to Wake Forest last week. I had Tech rated out as a top-15 caliber squad before the season started, and I’m sticking to my guns on that. I have faith in Hokie QB Hendon Hooker, and I expect him to tear up the State defense, and for the Hokie pass rush to give QB Bailey Hockman tons of trouble on the other side of the ball. Tech -7 should cover easily.

CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 33, NC State 22

☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Virginia Tech -7

Troy (1-0) @ #18 BYU (1-0)
10:15 PM ET, ESPN
Vegas Line: BYU -15

CSD Pick: BYU 39, Troy 24

Winner: Miami

The U is back? Maybe. The defense looks to be a step down from 2019, but the offense looks the best its been in a half-decade. OC Rhett Lashlee and new QB D’Eriq King (325 yards, three touchdowns) led the ‘Canes to 47 points @ Louisville on Saturday. Jaylan Knighton and Cam’Ron Harris look to be a viable RB duo, and TE Brevin Jordan is up there with the best in the country. I’d like to see the ‘Canes prove themselves against a top-25 defense, but the early returns all come up aces in Coral Gables.

Loser: Oklahoma State Hype

Sure, QB Spencer Sanders got injured, but a team thought to have one of the best offenses in the country coming into the year should put up more than 16 points on Tulsa. The Cowboys were lucky to escape Stillwater with a 16-7 win, Tulsa killed itself with penalties and frankly looked like the more talented team for most of the game. The gap between the Big 12’s elite and middle class looks to only be widening.

Winner: UCF

It wasn’t pretty, but by the end of four quarters, the scoreboard read UCF 49, Georgia Tech 21 as the Golden Knight put up 660 yards of total offense on the Yellow Jackets, led by QB Dillon Gabriel’s 417 yards and four touchdowns. Cincinnati looked great too, and the race for the AAC Title looks to be close as ever.

Loser: Tulane’s 24-0 lead

After coming back to win last week, Tulane got a taste of their own medicine on Saturday, blowing a 24-0 lead on a Navy team that was outscored 79-3 in their first six quarters of football this season. The Midshipmen, led by Dalen Morris, rattled off 27 straight points to pick up a 27-24 victory on the backs of a Bijan Nichols game-winner.

Winner: Boston College

Game one for new head coach Jeff Hafley at Boston College was nothing but a massive success. The Golden Eagles dominated Duke on the road, holding the Blue Devils to just six points and forcing five turnovers. The story, however, was Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jurkovec, who threw at a 74% clip for 300 yards and two scores. This team is good.

Loser: Western Kentucky

I thought the Hilltoppers, who won eight of their final ten to close out 2019, would be a contender in Conference USA this year, but September has not been nice to WKU. Losing a game 35-21 at Louisville is understandable, dropping your week two game to Liberty is something else. The defense looks to have taken a step back this year, and with an 0-2 start, WKU enters C-USA play on their heels.

Winner: UTSA RB Sincere McCormick

McCormick has helped lead UTSA to a 2-0 start and will enter week four as the nation’s leading rusher with almost 300 yards through two games. He was key in UTSA’s 24-10 over Stephen F. Austin on Saturday and will run all over Middle Tennessee Friday night.

Loser: Middle Tennessee

An MTSU team that lost a lot but was still thought to be a solid team in Conference USA this year has been throttled to open the year, losing their first two games to Army and Troy by a combined score of 89-14. After being ranked 63rd in the preseason, the Blue Raiders have already dropped 11 spots to 74th, third-worst in the country only ahead of UL Monroe and UTEP.

Winner: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence

I mean, come on, this one is too easy. The guy threw nine passes and three of them were touchdowns. Lawrence was special, and the Tigers cruised to a 49-0 win over The Citadel. They now have an off week to prepare for Virginia in a rematch of last year’s ACC title game.

Week Three is in the books. Louisiana and Oklahoma State survived tough tests as big favorites, Appalachian State fell to Marshall, and Miami controlled Louisville from start to finish. Let’s take a look at this week’s CSD Prime Computer Model Rankings.

Biggest Risers

Tulsa — +9
Boston College — +8
Troy — +7
Miami, Marshall, Liberty — +5

Tulsa’s defense looked dominant against an Oklahoma State offense thought to be potentially the best in the country, and thus, despite a 16-7 loss, the Golden Hurricane rockets up nine spots and lands in the top 50 at #47. Elsewhere, Notre Dame transfer QB Phil Jerkovic looked great for Boston College @ Duke, and Troy continued Sun Belt domination against Middle Tennessee. Hugh Freeze and Liberty upset a WKU team thought to be a Conference USA favorite, and Marshall cemented themselves as the Conference USA favorite with a 17-7 victory over App State. Finally, in the biggest game of the day, Miami never looked dominant, but they controlled Louisville from start to finish. The defense looked shaky, though, we’ll see if they can contain Florida State this week.

Biggest Fallers

Western Kentucky — -10
Duke — -8
Oklahoma State, Appalachian State — -6
Louisville, SMU, USF, Middle Tennessee — -5

The only thing really of note here not already covered is SMU dropping five spots after beating North Texas 65-35. The short answer? A top-35 team should not be letting up 35 points to a team that came into the week ranked as one of the three worst in the nation. The Mustangs barely cracked a 60 (out of 100) defensive grade on PFF for that performance, and they have their work cut out for them with Memphis in a few weeks.

A Lesson In Sample Size

After a week one victory @ #15 Iowa State, the Louisiana Rajin’ Cajuns only jumped up a few spots in this model, to 25th, while they rocketed to 19th in the AP poll. Why? A few reasons. First, the game wasn’t nearly as dominant as the 31-14 score indicated. The model gave ULL just a 67% post-game win-probability, much more in line with a one-score game. Additionally, it was one game, and the model is built to not overreact to a one-game sample size. Of course, it was proven correct this week. The Cajuns almost fumbled away their ranking, going down 21-7 to #64 Georgia State before eventually rallying to win in overtime, 34-31. That’s not the mark of a #19 team. So I warn you in the future, don’t overreact to one game.

Rank	Team	Conf	+/-	YTD +/-
1	Alabama	SEC	0	0
2	Clemson	ACC	0	0
3	Georgia	SEC	0	0
4	Oklahoma	Big 12	0	0
5	Florida	SEC	0	0
6	Texas A&M	SEC	0	0
7	Louisiana State	SEC	0	0
8	Auburn	SEC	0	0
9	Texas	Big 12	0	0
10	Notre Dame	ACC	1	0
11	North Carolina	ACC	1	1
12	Central Florida	AAC	4	5
13	Virginia Tech	ACC	0	0
14	Cincinnati	AAC	0	0
15	Tennessee	SEC	0	1
16	Oklahoma State	Big 12	-6	-5
17	Miami (FL)	ACC	5	5
18	Kentucky	SEC	-1	2
19	Memphis	AAC	0	0
20	Baylor	Big 12	1	3
21	Iowa State	Big 12	-1	-6
22	Mississippi	SEC	1	2
23	Louisville	ACC	-5	-5
24	Pittsburgh	ACC	0	1
25	Texas Christian	Big 12	1	1
26	Florida State	ACC	2	-5
27	Virginia	ACC	2	1
28	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-3	5
29	South Carolina	SEC	1	1
30	Brigham Young	Ind	2	10
31	West Virginia	Big 12	0	3
32	Mississippi State	SEC	1	0
33	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-6	-6
34	Wake Forest	ACC	3	1
35	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	0	6
36	Boston College	ACC	8	6
37	Georgia Tech	ACC	-1	8
38	Missouri	SEC	0	-2
39	Southern Methodist	AAC	-5	-8
40	Houston	AAC	-1	-3
41	Kansas State	Big 12	0	-12
42	North Carolina State	ACC	-2	-4
43	Marshall	CUSA	5	7
44	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	2	11
45	Texas Tech	Big 12	-2	-6
46	Syracuse	ACC	1	2
47	Tulsa	AAC	9	10
48	Temple	AAC	1	1
49	Navy	AAC	1	-6
50	Duke	ACC	-8	-6
51	Arkansas	SEC	0	0
52	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0	0
53	Tulane	AAC	0	-6
54	Army	Ind	1	8
55	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-10	-9
56	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-2	-2
57	Charlotte	CUSA	0	-1
58	South Alabama	Sun Belt	3	14
59	Troy	Sun Belt	7	6
60	East Carolina	AAC	-1	0
61	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	1	-8
62	Vanderbilt	SEC	-2	-1
63	South Florida	AAC	-5	-4
64	Georgia State	Sun Belt	0	0
65	Liberty	Ind	5	5
66	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	-3	3
67	Rice	CUSA	0	-1
68	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-3	-10
69	Florida International	CUSA	-1	-1
70	Texas State	Sun Belt	4	5
71	Kansas	Big 12	1	-4
72	North Texas	CUSA	3	1
73	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-2	-2
74	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-5	-11
75	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-2	-1
76	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	0	0