A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season,. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.
It was a big week 10, so think of week 11 as a bit of a “hangover week” for teams to get things right. Here’s what is on the schedule as we get into our college football picks week 11 edition:
Iowa @ Minnesota and Penn State @ Nebraska are two games featuring decent Big Ten teams that had poor starts looking to turn their seasons around
#9 Miami faces a tough road test @ an angry Virginia Tech team
#6 Florida gets a Sam Pittman-less Arkansas Razorbacks squad the week after upsetting Georgia
#13 Wisconsin is finally back from their COVID hiatus, they travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan
#2 Notre Dame gets the ultimate trap game: @ Boston College in the famous Red Bandana game
#23 Northwestern and Purdue square off for the Big Ten West lead
South Carolina and Ole Miss are both better than their 2-4 records indicate, they face off in what should be a fun night game
Cal @ Arizona State is your Pac-12 after dark game this week, hopefully it doesn’t get canceled!
Central Michigan (-6) @ Northern Illinois – Wednesday, 8 PM ET, ESPNU Tulane (-4) vs Army – 12 PM ET, ESPN+ West Virginia (-2) vs TCU – 12 PM ET, FOX South Alabama (+15.5) @ #25 Louisiana – 2 PM ET, ESPN+ Boston College (+14) vs #2 Notre Dame – 3:30 PM ET, ABC #13 Wisconsin (-1) @ Michigan – 7:30 PM ET, ABC Cal (-2.5) @ UCLA – Sunday, 12 PM ET, FS1
Eastern Michigan (0-1 MAC) @ Ball State (0-1 MAC) 7 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: Ball State -7.5
CSD Pick: Ball State 36, Eastern Michigan 26
Toledo (1-0 MAC) @ Western Michigan (1-0 MAC) 8 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Western Michigan -2
CSD Pick: Western Michigan 30, Toledo 29
Central Michigan (1-0 MAC) @ Northern Illinois (0-1 MAC) 8 PM ET, ESPNU Vegas Line: Central Michigan -6
The NIU defense looked atrocious last week against Buffalo, and against a Central Michigan group that’s ground game is among the best in the country, I don’t like Northern Illinois’ chance. The Chippewas should roll.
CSD Pick: Central Michigan 33, Northern Illinois 24
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Central Michigan -6
Thursday, November 12th
Colorado State (1-1, 1-1 MW) @ Boise State (2-1, 2-0 MW) 8 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Boise State -14
In a week as weak as this one, games like this are going to get thrust more into the spotlight, and that’s ok. Both of these teams are better than their 1-2 record indicates, and both are fresh off of their first wins of the season. Iowa QB Spencer Petras has been quite inaccurate thus far, throwing at a clip just barely cracking 50%. I expect the Minnesota defense to force some turnovers and pick up a close home win.
CSD Pick: Minnesota 31, Iowa 27
East Carolina (1-5, 1-4 AAC) @ #7 Cincinnati (6-0, 4-0 AAC) 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line:Cincinnati -25.5
A week after losing to Liberty, a 4-3 Virginia Tech squad is an outright favorite against a top-ten team. That seems a little crazy until you dig more into it. Miami, as they do seemingly every year, has a very inflated record right now. They have not performed like a 6-1 team, and they’ve faced a very weak schedule. VT, on the other hand, has a bit of an under-inflated record. Both the Wake and Liberty losses were very winnable games and VT has dealt with significant COVID problems. The Hokies are at home here, and I expect them to run all over a Miami defense that has taken a big step back this year. The Hurricanes, a team that has won a lot of close games those year, will have their luck finally run out.
CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 35, Miami 31
#10 Indiana (3-0 Big Ten) @ Michigan State (1-2 Big Ten) 12 PM ET, ABC Vegas Line: Indiana -8
CSD Pick: Indiana 31, Michigan State 20
#15 Coastal Carolina (7-0, 5-0 Sun Belt) @ Troy (4-3, 2-2 Sun Belt)– CANCELLED 12 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -7.5
Western Carolina (0-0) @ #22 Liberty (7-0) 12 PM ET, ESPNU Vegas Line: Liberty -32.5
CSD Pick: Liberty 50, Western Carolina 7
Army (6-1) @ Tulane (4-4) 12 PM ET, ESPN+ Vegas Line: Tulane -4
I’m going to keep betting on Tulane until Vegas catches on. The Green Wave is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games, covering by an average of over 12 points. I’ll lock them up here against an Army team with a very inflated record.
CSD Pick: Tulane 31, Army 22
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Tulane -4
Penn State (0-3 Big Ten) @ Nebraska (0-2 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Penn State -3.5
An 0 must go here. From the win column. Wow. Both of these teams had relatively high expectations coming into the year and have flopped, going winless. That being said… I do still think these teams are a lot better than the records indicate, there is too much raw talent on both groups for that not to be the case. The Nebraska defense will put up a fight, but a desperate James Franklin, hoping to avoid an 0-4 start, will motivate the Nittany Lions to a close victory.
CSD Pick: Penn State 27, Nebraska 23
Wake Forest (4-2, 3-2 ACC) @ North Carolina (5-2, 5-2 ACC) 12 PM ET, ACC Network Vegas Line: North Carolina -10.5
CSD Pick: North Carolina 35, Wake Forest 29
TCU (3-3, 3-3 Big 12) @ West Virginia (4-3, 3-3 Big 12) 12 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: West Virginia -2
I really like this 4-3 West Virginia team. QB Jarret Doege isn’t quite there yet, but he’s shown flashes, and the defense has looked great under Neal Brown’s tutelage. The Mountaineers haven’t lost a game at home so far this year, and they’ll knock off the Horned Frogs.
CSD Pick: West Virginia 30, TCU 25
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – West Virginia -2
Illinois (0-3 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (1-2 Big Ten) 1 PM ET, BTN Vegas Line: Rutgers -6
CSD Pick: Illinois 21, Rutgers 20
Gardner-Webb (0-0) @ Charlotte (2-3)– CANCELLED 2 PM ET, ESPN3 Vegas Line: Charlotte -29.5
CSD Pick: Charlotte 39, Gardner-Webb 11
South Alabama (3-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) @ #25 Louisiana (6-1, 4-1 Sun Belt) 2 PM ET, ESPN+ Vegas Line: Louisiana -15.5
I’ve been lower on Louisiana than most all year, and it has largely paid off. Since the big victory over Iowa State, the Cajuns are 1-5 against the spread. Pound South Alabama here.
CSD Pick: Louisiana 31, South Alabama 23
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – South Alabama +15.5
Georgia State (3-3, 2-3 Sun Belt) @ Appalachian State (5-1, 3-0 Sun Belt) 2:30 PM ET, ESPN+ Vegas Line: Appalachian State -16
CSD Pick: Appalachian State 37, Georgia State 20
Fresno State (2-1, 2-1 MW) @ Utah State (0-3, 0-3 MW) 2:30 PM ET, FS2 Vegas Line: Fresno State -11.5
North Texas (2-3, 1-2 C-USA) @ UAB (4-3, 2-1 C-USA)– CANCELLED 3 PM ET, Stadium Vegas Line: UAB -15
CSD Pick: UAB 37, North Texas 26
#2 Notre Dame (7-0, 6-0 ACC) @ Boston College (5-3, 4-3 ACC)
3:30 PM ET, ABC Vegas Line: Notre Dame -14
Oh wow. It would just be the most Notre Dame thing ever to lose to Boston College here, wouldn’t it? The Golden Eagles have knocked off an undefeated Notre Dame team after the Irish beat the class of the ACC twice before – in 2002 and 1993. Boston College, playing in their annual red bandana game, one of the most emotional days on the sports calendar, will absolutely have a shot to win this game. The Eagles, led by, ironically, Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec, should cover this 14-point spread, and I would not at all be surprised by an outright win.
CSD Pick: Notre Dame 32, Boston College 25
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boston College +14
#20 USC (1-0 Pac-12) @ Arizona (0-0 Pac-12) 3:30 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: USC -12.5
CSD Pick: USC 38, Arizona 24
Southern Miss (2-5, 1-2 C-USA) @ Western Kentucky (2-6, 1-3 C-USA) 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: Western Kentucky -8
Hawai’i (2-1, 2-1 MW) @ San Diego State (2-1, 2-1 MW) 4 PM ET, Spectrum Vegas Line: San Diego State -10
CSD Pick: San Diego State 30, Hawai’i 27
Baylor (1-4, 1-4 Big 12) @ Texas Tech (2-5, 1-5 Big 12) 4 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Pick’em
CSD Pick: Baylor 30, Texas Tech 27
#23 Northwestern (3-0 Big Ten) @ Purdue (2-0 Big Ten)
5 PM ET, BTN Vegas Line: Pick’em
Is this the biggest game of the week? Maybe I guess. Two unbeatens – Northwestern and Purdue – will face in a matchup to determine who will be Wisconsin’s challenger in the Big Ten West. While they may be on the road, my pick is Northwestern. The Wildcats are a coach’s team, they play the fundamentals of football right, they have an efficient, sturdy defense, and they don’t turn the ball over. Give me the Wildcats to win this one as they head into next week’s clash with Wisconsin.
CSD Pick: Northwestern 25, Purdue 21
Nevada (3-0, 3-0 MW) @ New Mexico (0-2, 0-2 MW) 6:30 PM ET, FS2 Vegas Line: Nevada -11.5
CSD Pick: Nevada 36, New Mexico 26
Arkansas (3-3 SEC) @ #6 Florida (4-1 SEC)
7 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Florida -17
Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks will get a chance to take on his former team on Saturday night as the Razorbacks will look to spoil Florida’s stroll into the College Football Playoff. There is always a letdown effect after a team wins a big game, and because of that, I do expect Arkansas to keep this closer than expected, but the Florida offense is just too good, and the Gators should win by double digits.
CSD Pick: Florida 37, Arkansas 25
#11 Oregon (1-0 Pac-12) @ Washington State (1-0 Pac-12) 7 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: Oregon -8
#13 Wisconsin (1-0 Big Ten) @ Michigan (1-2 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, ABC Vegas Line: Wisconsin -1
It is finally time to see Wisconsin play on a Saturday. The Badgers, who have not been able to play since October because of COVID concerns, are still the #4 team in the country in my computer model, albeit with very limited sample size. They take on a Michigan team that looks to turn their season around after a 1-2 start. It is unclear how many players Wisconsin will be down due to the outbreak, but whoever is able to play will be motivated to get back on the field, and they should win this one on the road, improving to 2-0.
Florida State (2-5, 1-5 ACC) @ NC State (4-3, 4-3 ACC) 7:30 PM ET, ACC Network Vegas Line: NC State -7.5
CSD Pick: NC State 31, Florida State 23
South Carolina (2-4 SEC) @ Ole Miss (2-4 SEC)
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Vegas Line: Ole Miss -7
Another game between teams better than their records indicate. Keep in mind that if we did have a non-conference this year, both of these teams would likely be at least .500 with the cupcakes thrown in. Will Muschamp is coaching for his job, but I like the Rebels offense in this one. Ole Miss has one of the best scoring attacks in the country, and they should improve to 3-4.
CSD Pick: Ole Miss 33, South Carolina 29
UNLV (0-3, 0-3 MW) @ San Jose State (3-0, 3-0 MW) 10:30 PM ET, FS2 Vegas Line: San Jose State -16
CSD Pick: San Jose State 34, UNLV 18
Cal (0-0 Pac-12) @ Arizona State (0-1 Pac-12)– CANCELLED
10:30 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line: Arizona State -4
We will finally get to see Cal play after the Golden Bears had their first game canceled last week due to COVID concerns. As for Arizona State, they played well in a 28-27 road loss to USC, in fact, I would argue they looked like the better team despite the score. ASU QB Jayden Daniels is a future star, and I expect him to lead the Sun Devils to their first win of the year
CSD Pick: Arizona State 26, Cal 24
Utah (0-0 Pac-12) @ UCLA (0-1 Pac-12)– CANCELLED 10:30 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: Utah -2.5
CSD Pick: Utah 36, UCLA 28
Oregon State (0-1 Pac-12) @ Washington (0-0 Pac-12) 11 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Washington -13.5
CSD Pick: Washington 35, Oregon State 20
Sunday, November 15th
Cal (0-0 Pac-12) @ UCLA (0-1 Pac-12) 12 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Cal -2.5
This feels like free money to me. UCLA is reeling, Cal is a legit top-25 level team. I understand that the circumstances are odd, but I’ll take the better team minus less than a field goal.
A reminder, as always, these rankings DO NOT reflect a team’s resume, or even whether they have won or lost, they are solely used to measure a team’s strength in the sense Vegas would to set lines. Thus, team talent remains an important variable throughout the season, even if a team continues to lose. Additionally, recent games are weighted more heavily, and if you are lucky or don’t look good in a win, you may fall, while if you look good or are unlucky in a loss, you may rise. Let’s get into it.
The biggest week of the college football season so far is here as #8 Florida takes on #5 Georgia and #1 Clemson takes on #4 Notre Dame in two games with massive CFP implications. Also on the docket:
The Pac-12 finally starts their season! This week’s schedule is highlighted by Arizona State vs #20 USC
A Friday night showdown out west as #9 BYU takes on #21 Boise State
#13 Indiana hopes to cement their status as the Big Ten East’s #2 as they host #23 Michigan, meanwhile, Northwestern and Nebraska jockey for position in the West
#25 Liberty, ranked for the first time in school history, looks to hold onto that spot against Virginia Tech
#22 Texas and West Virginia hope to stay alive in the Big 12 title picture, but only one can
#7 Texas A&M, a College Football Playoff darkhorse, is on upset watch @ South Carolina
#21 Boise State (+3) vs #9 BYU – Friday, 9:45 PM ET, FS1 Temple (+18.5) vs #18 SMU – 12 PM ET, ESPN+ Tulane (-2.5) @ East Carolina – 12 PM ET, ESPN+ Troy (+1) @ Georgia Southern – 1 PM ET, ESPN3 Florida State (+2.5) vs Pittsburgh – 4 PM ET, ACC Network
Wednesday, November 4th
Eastern Michigan (0-0 MAC) @ Kent State (0-0 MAC) 6 PM ET, ESPN+ Vegas Line: Kent State -6.5
CSD Pick: Kent State 36, Eastern Michigan 30
Western Michigan (0-0 MAC) @ Akron (0-0 MAC) 6 PM ET, ESPN3 Vegas Line: Western Michigan -17
Ohio (0-0 MAC) @ Central Michigan (0-0 MAC) 7 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Pick’em
CSD Pick: Ohio 32, Central Michigan 31
Ball State (0-0 MAC) @ Miami OH (0-0 MAC) 7 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: Miami (OH) -3
CSD Pick: Miami OH 30, Ball State 27
Bowling Green (0-0 MAC) @ Toledo (0-0 MAC) 8 PM ET, ESPNU Vegas Line: Toledo -18
CSD Pick: Toledo 38, Bowling Green 17
Thursday, November 5th
Utah State (0-2, 0-2 MW) @ Nevada (2-0, 2-0 MW) 7 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Nevada -13.5
CSD Pick: Nevada 34, Utah State 19
Wyoming (1-1, 1-1 MW) @ Colorado State (0-1, 0-1 MW) 9 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: Wyoming -3.5
CSD Pick: Wyoming 28, Colorado State 24
Friday, November 6th
#11 Miami (5-1, 4-1 ACC) @ NC State (4-2, 4-2 ACC) 7:30 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Miami -8.5
CSD Pick: Miami 31, NC State 25
San Jose State (2-0, 2-0 MW) @ San Diego State (2-0, 2-0 MW) 9 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: San Diego State -10
CSD Pick: San Diego State 32, San Jose State 22
#9 BYU (7-0) @ #21 Boise State (2-0)
9:45 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: BYU -3
An 0 must go on Friday night, as the two biggest non-P5s on the West Coast will face off in primetime. Both squads have looked great so far this year. Not only are both undefeated, but they are a combined 7-1-1 against the spread, an incredible mark. I don’t see either of these teams quite at a College Football Playoff level, but either making it into the New Year’s Six would not be surprising.
For BYU, QB Zach Wilson is a star, and while Boise State’s normal #1 QB, Hank Bachmeier, will be out with COVID, Boise backup Jack Sears was great last week against Air Force, throwing three touchdowns and only three incompletions. Sears’ performance last week was enough to quell my fears in the passing game, and I like Boise’s defense a lot better than BYU’s. I’ve got the Broncos ending BYU’s dreams on the blue turf.
CSD Pick: Boise State 32, BYU 31
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boise State +3
Saturday, November 7th
#23 Michigan (1-1 Big Ten) @ #13 Indiana (2-0 Big Ten)
12 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Michigan -3.5
The Big Ten East is a mess, but the question as to who the #2 is behind Ohio State will get some clarity on Saturday as Michigan takes on Indiana. The Hoosiers have had an excellent start to the year, holding victories over Penn State and Rutgers, but they run into Michigan, a program that has beaten down Indiana in recent years, in fact, the Wolverines have beaten Indiana 24 straight times. I’m not betting against that. This is where Indiana’s luck runs out.
SMU has been a little overhyped this year, and I feel that this Temple squad, at home, will finally take a step forward after underachieving thus far in 2020, expect this to be a lot tighter than the 18.5-point spread indicates.
CSD Pick: SMU 37, Temple 26
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Temple +18.5
Arizona State (0-0 Pac-12) @ #20 USC (0-0 Pac-12)
12 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: USC -10.5
The legendary 9 AM local kick! This is, of course, a terrible idea, but it should be a good game between two of the Pac-12 favorites. I happen to be a lot higher on USC than most, seeing the Trojans as a potential playoff contender down the road, and they’ll show that they mean business with a double-digit victory to open the year in the national spotlight.
CSD Pick: USC 34, Arizona State 24
West Virginia (4-2, 3-2 Big 12) @ #22 Texas (4-2, 3-2 Big 12)
12 PM ET, ABC Vegas Line: Texas -7
The loser of this game may have their Big 12 title hopes dashed, so this is a big one. Both teams are fresh off of big wins over ranked foes, but only one can continue that streak. Texas is at home and Sam Ehlinger is a playmaker near unmatched in College Football, so I’ll take the Longhorns, but it will be tight.
CSD Pick: Texas 32, West Virginia 25
#25 Liberty (6-0) @ Virginia Tech (4-2)
12 PM ET, ACC Network Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -16.5
The best chance we’ll have of seeing a ranked team go down on Saturday will be #25 Liberty traveling to Virginia Tech. The Flames have had a nice start to the year, they beat Syracuse, but they aren’t in VT’s league. Give me the Hokies, big.
Tulane (3-4, 1-4 American) @ East Carolina (1-4, 1-3 American) 12 PM ET, ESPN+ Vegas Line: Tulane -2.5
Something about this line feels very wrong. I really like this Tulane team – they can rush the passer, the run game looked great last week, and they’ll easily cover 2.5 against ECU.
CSD Pick: Tulane 34, East Carolina 28
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Tulane -2.5
North Carolina (4-2, 4-2 ACC) @ Duke (2-5, 1-5 ACC) 12 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line: North Carolina -9
CSD Pick: North Carolina 38, Duke 27
UL Monroe (0-7, 0-4 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (2-3, 1-3 Sun Belt) 12 PM ET, ESPN3 Vegas Line: Georgia State -19.5
CSD Pick: Georgia State 35, UL Monroe 18
Nebraska (0-1 Big Ten) @ Northwestern (2-0 Big Ten) 12 PM ET, BTN Vegas Line: Northwestern -4
CSD Pick: Northwestern 27, Nebraska 25
Michigan State (1-1 Big Ten) @ Iowa (0-2 Big Ten) 12 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Iowa -7
CSD Pick: Iowa 28, Michigan State 19
Arkansas State (3-4, 1-3 Sun Belt) @ Louisiana (5-1, 3-1 Sun Belt) 12 PM ET, ESPNU Vegas Line: Louisiana -13
CSD Pick: Louisiana 41, Arkansas State 27
Troy (4-2, 2-1 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (3-2, 2-2 Sun Belt) 1 PM ET, ESPN3 Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -1
The wrong team is favored here. Troy stomped Arkansas State 38-10 last week, and they’ll continue that momentum here against a middling Georgia Southern squad.
CSD Pick: Troy 30, Georgia Southern 27
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Troy +1
Boston College (4-3, 3-3 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-6, 1-5 ACC) 2 PM ET, ESPN3 Vegas Line: Boston College -13.5
A potential College Football Playoff eliminator game out of the SEC, where it seems unlikely the loser of this game has any chance of making the big dance. Is this the biggest “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” in recent memory? Probably.
Both teams have dropped a game already this year: Florida to Texas A&M and Georgia to Alabama. The UF offense has been great so far – Kyle Trask is excellent, and the run games deserve more credit, but the Gator defense is a problem. Stetson Bennett will do enough, the Georgia defense will hold strong, and the Bulldogs will continue their march to an eventual rematch with Alabama
Kansas (0-6, 0-5 Big 12) @ #19 Oklahoma (4-2, 3-2 Big 12) 3:30 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Oklahoma -37
CSD Pick: Oklahoma 47, Kansas 10
Maryland (1-1 Big Ten) @ Penn State (0-2 Big Ten) 3:30 PM ET, BTN Vegas Line: Penn State -24.5
CSD Pick: Penn State 41, Maryland 15
Minnesota (0-2 Big Ten) @ Illinois (0-2 Big Ten) 3:30 PM ET, BTN Vegas Line: Minnesota -7.5
CSD Pick: Minnesota 32, Illinois 27
Vanderbilt (0-4 SEC) @ Mississippi State (1-4 SEC) 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network Vegas Line: Mississippi State -18.5
CSD Pick: Mississippi State 30, Vanderbilt 13
Texas Tech (2-4, 1-4 Big 12) @ TCU (2-3, 2-3 Big 12) 3:30 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: TCU -9.5
CSD Pick: TCU 34, Texas Tech 25
Fresno State (1-1, 1-1 MW) @ UNLV (0-2, 0-2 MW) 3:30 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: Fresno State -13.5
CSD Pick: Fresno State 32, UNLV 23
#14 Oklahoma State (4-1, 3-1 Big 12) @ Kansas State (4-2, 4-1 Big 12) 4 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -9.5
CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 30, Kansas State 21
Pittsburgh (3-4, 2-4 ACC) @ Florida State (2-4, 1-4 ACC) 4 PM ET, ACC Network Vegas Line: Pittsburgh -2.5
Florida State is a team on the rise, Pitt is faltering, FSU is at home. Enough said. Get on this before the line changes.
CSD Pick: Florida State 25, Pittsburgh 24
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Florida State +2.5
Western Kentucky (2-5, 1-2 C-USA) @ Florida Atlantic (2-1, 2-1 C-USA) 6 PM ET, Stadium/FSN Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic -11.5
CSD Pick: Florida Atlantic 26, Western Kentucky 21
#7 Texas A&M (4-1 SEC) @ South Carolina (2-3 SEC)
7 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Texas A&M -8
Texas A&M, a darkhorse playoff contender, will look to avoid an upset as they travel to Colombia to take on South Carolina. The Gamecocks are a lot better than their 2-3 record indicates, and I do expect A&M to get a scare here, but the Aggies are just too talented, and they’ll pick up a win to improve to 5-1 on the year – although it will be close.
CSD Pick: Texas A&M 30, South Carolina 23
Baylor (1-3, 1-3 Big 12) @ #17 Iowa State (4-2, 4-1 Big 12)
The biggest game of the year to date perhaps? This will be fun. DJ Uiagelelei, filling in for Trevor Lawrence, taking on one of the best defenses in the country in Notre Dame. It’s Clemson vs Notre Dame.
The Tigers are dealing with injuries and COVID positives, they’re on the road, but I just can’t bet against them. Notre Dame hasn’t faced a team better than… Louisville maybe? The Irish are untested while the Tigers have been here, in the spotlight before. It will be close, but DJ will put in another great performance, and the Tigers will continue their march to the CFP.
CSD Pick: Clemson 33, Notre Dame 29
Rutgers (1-1 Big Ten) @ #3 Ohio State (2-0 Big Ten) 7:30 PM ET, BTN Vegas Line: Ohio State -37
While we haven’t done one in a while – live election coverage was a cornerstone of this site in the early days – as the data-driven aspect has always intrigued me. Since late 2017, I’ve backed off on election coverage to put full effort into college sports, however, with interest for this election off the charts, I decided to bring the coverage back for one night only – albeit with a preview rather than a liveblog. So, without further ado:
Before we get into it: let’s set some ground rules on the terms we’ll be using throughout: Safe: This race is >99% likelihood of victory for the favored candidate. Upsets can theoretically happen but are exceedingly rare. Likely: Expect a couple of races with likely characterization to go to the underdog candidate, but any more than that would mean one party or the other is having an exceptionally good night. Lean: The underdogs in these races have a decent shot and will win a significant percentage of the time, but they are clearly underdogs Tilt: Expect the favored candidate to win this race more than 50% of the time, but not significantly so. Tossup: A true coin flip, these races should theoretically split roughly 50-50 – although, often times this isn’t how elections work, as one party tends to overperform their polls across the board.
THE PRESIDENCY
Map with probabilistic characterizationsNo tossups, gun to my head prediction
I’ll start off with the presidential contest, which, while clearly the most important, frankly isn’t that interesting to me. First off, if you’re reading this, you know who the candidates are, you know what the polls say, so there isn’t much that I feel that I can add. The polls are clear: Joe Biden is the favorite to win this election, and there has been so much high-quality polling of the race that to go against the polls would be denying data, and I can’t do that. The race is simple: either Joe Biden is going to win, or we will see the biggest polling error since 1948. What are the odds of that happening? Not great, but with mail-in voting and changes in election law across the country, I would believe it if we saw a bigger than average (three points) polling miss in 2020. However, for the President to secure re-election, the polling miss would have to be roughly double that, which, while not impossible, is quite unlikely.
I gave Joe Biden the edge in each of the tossups, although odds are Trump will hold at least one. The fact of the matter is that if Biden wins any of the southeast battlegrounds: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, or Texas, the race is likely over, while if he loses them all, we could be waiting a few days to find out who won, as the upper midwest seems likely to take longer to count their votes.
SENATE
Map with probabilistic characterizationsNo tossups, gun to my head prediction
We start off with 43 safe seats for the Democrats, and 39 for the Republicans. We’ll go more in-depth on the competitive races.
ALABAMA Incumbent senator Doug Jones (D) has the toughest race of any incumbent this cycle, as he faces former Auburn football head coach Tommy Tuberville (R) in one of the reddest states in the country. Jones only barely snuck into office against one of the worst senate candidates in recent history, Roy Moore (R), and Jones, who has not been a conservative Democrat in his tenure as some expected, seems likely to lose this seat. Characterization: Likely R
ALASKA Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) narrowly defeated then-Sen. Mark Begich (D) by three points in the 2014 wave, and he faces a tough re-election race this time around against surgeon Al Gross (I), who also received the Democratic Party’s nomination. Gross has fundraised extraordinarily well, besting Sullivan by a 2-to-1 margin, and Alaska has a history of electing independents, including for governor very recently. With that being said, Alaska is a red state, and most polls show Sullivan with a lead in the mid-single digits. The so-called “Last Frontier” is an extraordinarily difficult state to poll, though, and an upset is certainly a possibility. Characterization: Lean R
ARIZONA Appointed incumbent Martha McSally (R) is seeking to finish the last two years of this term after being appointed following the death of the late Sen. John McCain (R). McSally was appointed this seat by Gov. Doug Ducey (R) after losing the 2018 race for the other Arizona seat to now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D). McSally was originally thought to be a moderate but pivoted drastically to the right after she received some challengers to her right flank in the primary of that 2018 race, which many believe led to her eventual downfall. She has fundraised extremely well, though, with gross hauls of nearly $57 million, but runs into a very tough challenger.
Astronaut Mark Kelly (D) is her opponent for this race. Kelly is perhaps best known for being the husband of ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), who was injured in an assassination attempt. Kelly was considered a major recruiting win for Democrats and has proven so, fundraising an absurd $90 million and leading in polls throughout. Kelly originally seemed to be on track to win by double-digits, and while the race has somewhat tightened since as Republican voters in the historically-red state “came home” to McSally, the conventional wisdom is that Kelly is still a significant, although not surefire favorite. Characterization: Lean D
COLORADO Incumbent Cory Gardner (R) is another member of the 2014 wave, he defeated then-Sen. Mark Udall (D) by a small margin in what was considered an upset at the time. Gardner has had some moderate tendencies during his term, including support for his state’s decision to legalize cannabis, but he still faces a very tough re-election bid as Democrats secured their best possible recruit for this race.
Ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) jumped into this race at the last minute after a poor showing in the Presidential primaries. Hickenlooper was previously a popular, moderate governor of the state for two terms. He has been hit for saying he did not want this seat during the Presidential race and for some ethics scandals from his time as governor, for which he was fined $3,000. However, Hickenlooper has been up high single-digits to even low-double digits throughout this race and seems likely to flip this seat. Characterization: Likely D
GEORGIA (SPECIAL) This seat is a special race to fill out the term of Frmr.-Sen. Johnny Isakson, who resigned last year due to Parkinson’s Disease. This is a unique contest as there were not any primaries, so 20 candidates of all parties will be on the ballot, with the top two advancing to a runoff in January (unless any candidate receives >50%, which seems near-impossible).
The appointed incumbent is Kelly Loeffler (R), a former executive for the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange, and one of the richest members of the Senate, with a net worth of over half a billion dollars. She has been hit for making significant gains in the stock market after she received a classified briefing on the coronavirus. Loeffler was originally appointed to this seat by Gov. Brian Kemp (R) as she was thought to have some appeal to Trump-skeptical suburban moderates. However, after receiving an intra-party challenge from Rep. Doug Collins (R), she has pivoted drastically to the right, especially on the issue of immigration, and seems to have beaten out Collins to the party’s right flank. Collins, who has been in the House for eight years, was the favorite to receive the appointment, and while he has not been endorsed by Trump, the President had previously called him his “pick” for the seat after Collins was a strong defender of the President during impeachment. Despite that, Collins has struggled in fundraising; while the representative has raised more than Loeffler from donors, the incumbent’s self-funding ability has meant that he’s been outspent nearly 4-to-1 in the race, and while Collins looked likely to be the highest-finishing Republican after Loeffler’s scandal, Loeffler’s shift to the right has led her to overtake him in most polls.
Minister Raphael Warnock (D) is the overwhelming favorite to finish first in the November round of voting. Warnock has spent the last 15 years as head pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, preaching from the same pulpit MLK once preached. Warnock was seen as a very strong recruit for Democrats but struggled to coalesce Democratic support early. However, in the past few weeks, Democratic voters have come home to Warnock, the choice of the party and Frmr-Pres. Barack Obama. Warnock has opened up a massive polling lead over Loeffler and Collins in round one voting intention and seems to hold an edge over both of them in the eventual runoff. Two other Democrats are worth a mention: Matt Liberman (D), son of ex-CT Sen. Joe Lieberman (I/D), and Ex-US Attorney Ed Tarver (D), both of whom struggled to fundraise after Warnock won the party’s support.
As for tonight’s result, Warnock is certain to take the first runoff spot and could clear the 50% threshold on a truly amazing night for Democrats. As for the second spot, Loeffler seems to be slightly ahead of Collins, although an upset there is possible. Polls show Warnock beating out both Loeffler and Collins, whose race to the right has cost them moderate voters, however, the lower January turnout is likely to favor Republicans. Thus, I rate the eventual winner of this seat as a tossup. Runoff Characterization: Safe Warnock, Lean Loeffler. Final Characterization: Tossup
GEORGIA Incumbent David Perdue (R) is up for his normal re-election this year. He will take on 2017 GA-6 nominee Jon Ossoff (D), the nominee in what many called “the most important house race in history” for a left-trending, upscale seat in the Atlanta suburbs that was the first special election following Trump’s win. Ossoff fundraised well for that race but lost it by three points to now-ex-Rep. Karen Handel (R), who lost the seat in 2018 to another Democrat. After being seen as a mediocre campaigner during that contest, Ossoff, now 33, has seemed to improve for this race and has out-fundraised his opponent again. Georgia is leftward-trending, and Ossoff has won the four most recent polls of the race, but Georgia is still a historically-red state and Perdue is a relatively non-controversial incumbent. My inclination would be Ossoff is slightly favored to get more votes tonight, however, there is a wrinkle, as if neither candidate reaches 50%, the race will go to a January runoff, and a third-party candidate, Shane Hazel (L) seems likely to secure a couple of points. If the race does go to a runoff, Perdue would seem to be somewhat favored, as the January turnout will be beneficial to Republicans. That wrinkle makes this the toughest race in the country to predict. Characterization: Tossup
IOWA Incumbent Joni Ernst (R) was elected in the 2014 wave in what was an upset after Barack Obama won the state twice. Ernst has been seen as a rising star in the party and a potential future Presidential candidate but faces a tough challenge from real estate executive Theresa Greenfield (D). Greenfield’s biography is unexceptional, she ran for office once before, for Iowa’s third congressional district, where she was thrown off the ballot after her campaign manager forged petition signatures. Thus, it was considered odd when the DSCC endorsed her well in advance of the primary, but Greenfield has proven to be a strong campaigner, outraising Ernst 2-to-1 and leading slightly in the polls despite Iowa’s light-red getting redder color. However, a last-second poll from famous, A+, gold standard Iowa pollster Ann Selzer showed Ernst with a four-point edge. The New York Times, another A+ pollster, also showed Ernst with a slight lead, and thus, I shifted this race slightly in Ernst’s direction at the last minute. However, Greenfield looks likely to overperform Biden in the state, and an upset is still very possible. Characterization: Tilt R
KANSAS Rep. Roger Marshall was the Republican’s choice candidate for this seat following the retirement of incumbent Pat Roberts, defeating a controversial challenger thought to jeopardize this seat in the primary by a decent margin. However, this race has proven to be close despite Marshall’s relatively moderate stances, as Democrats scored a big recruitment win in State Sen. Barbara Bollier (R -> D). Bollier was a former Republican member of the legislature who switched parties after the 2018 election. This race was originally thought to be off the playing field in a red state, but poor fundraising from Marshall has allowed Bollier to flood the airwaves, and most polls have shown Marshall with a lead only in the mid-single digits, meaning an upset is still possible. Characterization: Lean R
KENTUCKY Incumbent Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is on a glide path to reelection against 2018 KY-6 nominee Amy McGrath (D). McGrath “fell up” to this race after losing that congressional race in 2018, and has fundraised incredibly well, with a $90 million war chest, the only reason why this race deserves a mention. Most polls of the race have shown McConnell up by low-double digits, however, McGrath’s great fundraising and McConnell’s polarizing nature as the most unpopular member of the Senate give her an outside shot of an upset on a truly amazing night for Democrats. Characterization: Likely R
MAINE Incumbent Susan Collins (R), previously well-known for her broad popularity (she took 69% of the vote in 2014!) has since become one of the most controversial members of the Senate, holding the line on impeachment and Brett Kavanaugh’s SCOTUS nomination despite the blue lean of her state. Unsurprisingly, Democrats drew a strong challenger for her this year, State House Spkr. Sara Gideon (D), who has outraised Collins more than 2-to-1 as national donors were angry over Collins’ unpopular votes. Collins, who drew strong bipartisan support in her previous re-election bids, seems unlikely to get much of a crossover vote this time, although she will overperform Trump in the state. All recent polls have shown Gideon with a lead, but Collins’ strong campaign skills and universal name-recognition are assets, and the race remains competitive. Characterization: Lean D
MICHIGAN Incumbent Gary Peters (D), who won this seat by 13 points despite the 2014 wave, has drawn a strong challenger for this race, in 2018 MI-Sen nominee John James (R), who is seeking this seat after falling short for the other Michigan senate seat by a closer than expected six-point margin despite the 2018 wave. This is one race where the Republican has fundraised neck-and-neck with the Democrat, and James seems likely to outperform Trump, however, Peters seems to be a favorite to retain this seat, as all recent polls have shown him up, some by double-digits. Characterization: Lean D
MINNESOTA Appointed Incumbent Tina Smith (D) was awarded this seat when then-Sen. Al Franken (D) resigned in 2017. She faces Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R), who was also formerly a talk radio host. Lewis squeaked out a win in the purple suburban MN-2 in what was considered a big upset in 2016 but was then ousted by a five-point margin in 2018. Lewis has proven to be a strong campaigner, outperforming expectations in both 2016 and 2018, and benefits from strong name recognition due to his radio show, but Minnesota is still a light blue state, although trending red. Smith’s incumbency and stronger fundraising mean she is likely to prevail, although on a good night for Republicans an upset is possible. Characterization: Likely D
MISSISSIPPI Incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is up for a full term against Ex-Rep. and 2018 nominee Mike Espy (D). Espy held Hyde-Smith to a closer than expected seven-point margin in the special election and quickly was recruited to run again. Espy kept that race close due to strong turnout from black voters, and, thanks to a 3-to-1 fundraising advantage, Espy has kept this race competitive as well. The deep red nature of the state makes Hyde-Smith a strong favorite, but Espy has proven to be a great candidate, and this race remains on the very edge of the playing field. Characterization: Likely R
MONTANA Incumbent Steve Daines (R) is seeking a second term after being swept in on the 2014 wave. He faces a tough re-election as Dems secured their best possible candidate in Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who jumped into this race on the very last day after denying he had any interest while he was running for President. Bullock has been a very popular Governor and won re-election by four points in 2016 even while Trump easily carried the state. Bullock has also received credit for his state’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak but did shift moderately to the left during his Presidential campaign, especially on the issue of guns, where he was once moderate. Daines’ uncontroversial nature has left Bullock without an attacking point for much of the campaign, and the incumbent has held a slight lead in the polls throughout. However, Montana is only a moderately red state and one of the final where split-ticking voting remains, including for Bullock himself, and thus an upset would not at all be surprising. Characterization: Tilt R
NEW MEXICO This seat deserves just a quick mention. Rep. Ben-Ray Lujan (D) seems to be a significant favorite over TV Meteorologist Mark Ronchetti (R) due to Lujan’s fundraising and the state’s blue lean, but Ronchetti has seemed to have surged late, securing the endorsement of the state’s largest newspaper, the Albuquerque Journal. All polls have shown Lujan ahead, but Ronchetti’s moderate nature and Lujan’s seemingly extraordinary political ambitions mean that Ronchetti could pull the upset on a very good night for Republicans. Characterization: Likely D
NORTH CAROLINA Incumbent Thom Tillis (R) is facing a very strong challenge from Ex-State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D). Cunningham is the type of candidate that Democrats love to run in the South, a moderate, white, male, veteran, but that biography has proven to pay off, as Cunningham has been a strong candidate on the coattails of Biden and Gov. Roy Cooper’s strength in the state, outraising Tillis 2-to-1 and leading in the polls throughout. Cunningham has faced a string of bad headlines over the past few weeks, as it was revealed that he has been involved in multiple affairs, however, it has not seemed to undercut his support as Democrats worried it might. North Carolina is still a purple state, but Cunningham’s fundraising makes him a slight favorite despite the scandal. Characterization: Tilt D
SOUTH CAROLINA Controversial incumbent Lindsey Graham (R) is seeking a fourth term. Graham started his career in the House as an establishment conservative and won this seat for the first time in 2002. After flying under the radar during the Bush years, Graham pivoted aggressively to the center after Obama’s election, positioning himself as the heir-apparent to John McCain. Graham was a hawkish conservative that was willing to ignore leadership, especially on issues such as immigration. Graham then ran an abortive Presidential campaign in 2016 where he repeatedly railed against Trump, at one point calling him a “jackass”, but after Trump’s election, Graham swung drastically back to the right, becoming a staunch defender of the President and earning back his trust with virulent defenses of then-Judge Brett Kavanaugh and President Trump during his Impeachment. His high-profile nature has drawn him a strong challenger.
Ex-SC Democratic Party chair Jamie Harrison (D) is Graham’s opponent. This was originally thought to be a longshot bid, but Harrison has proven to run an exceptional campaign, threading the needle between South Carolina’s conservative electorate and the liberal national donor base. His aspirational speeches and ads as well as his race have drawn comparisons to Obama, and Harrison has fundraised staggeringly well for a ridiculous $109 Million, making him the most well-funded candidate for any non-Presidential race in the history of the country. Graham has led recent polls by low-single digits, and that coupled with the state’s red lean makes him a favorite, but Harrison’s strong fundraising makes an upset possible. Characterization: Lean R
TEXAS Despite Texas’ blue-trending nature, Incumbent John Cornyn (R) has faced a fairly easy path to re-election. Unlike Sen. Ted Cruz, who was held to a three-point margin of victory in 2018, Cornyn is fairly uncontroversial and faces a weaker candidate in 2018 TX-31 nominee MJ Hegar (D), who fell upward to this seat after losing that race. Despite Dem’s interest in Texas, Cornyn has actually out-fundraised Hegar and seems to be a significant favorite for re-election. Characterization: Likely R
HOUSEOF REPRESENTATIVES
Map with probabilistic characterizationsNo tossups, gun to my head prediction
I don’t have the time to go in-depth on all 100+ competitive races, but I’ll briefly touch on the 14 that I have rated as toss-ups. Democrats seem very likely to gain seats overall, although how these 14 seats go will tell you whether it is on track to be a gain of just a couple of seats or potentially upwards of 15.
ARIZONA-6 AZ-6 is a medium-red, left-trending district covering Phoenix’s upscale suburbs, including parts of Phoenix and Scottsdale. David Schweikert (R) is the incumbent. Schweikert won this seat on the 2010 wave and has been an anti-establishment conservative and member of the Freedom Caucus in Congress. He won by ten points two years ago, but has faced a major ethics scandal since, and drew a strong challenger in 2018 AZ-8 nominee Hiral Tipirneni (D) who carpetbagged to this district. Tipirnenei is known for holding now-Rep. Debbie Lesko to a closer than expected five-point margin in a 2018 special election. For context, I rate that race as safe this time around. Tipirnenei has outraised Schweikert nearly 3-to-1 for this race as the scandals dried up Schweikert’s fundraising. The left-trending nature of the district and Schweikert’s ethics issues make Tipirneni a slight favorite.
CALIFORNIA-21 CA-21 is a Hispanic-majority, medium-blue district covering southeast Bakersfield, some outskirts of Fresno, and some rural California. Incumbent TJ Cox (D) is seeking a second term. Cox, who is of Asian descent, won this seat in a mild upset against an incumbent, David Valadao (R), who is back for a rematch this year. Valado was a moderate in the House and was considered very popular prior to his loss. On the backs of some minor scandals from Cox, Valadao fundraised well for this race, albeit behind Cox, and he led the first round of voting 50-39, with the party breakdown being 52-48 in favor of the Republicans. Democratic turnout will be stronger in the general, and the incumbent should be a very mild favorite, but his strong performance in the first round makes Valadao regaining his seat a real possibility.
MISSOURI-2 MO-2 is a medium-red, left-trending district covering the southwest St. Louis suburbs. Incumbent Ann Wagner (R) is seeking a fifth term. Wagner, an establishment conservative, is seen to be a potential future member of House leadership but was held to a four-point win in 2018. State Sen. Jill Schupp (D) will look to close that gap. Schupp won her seat by defeating now-SoS Jay Ashcroft (R) and is considered a very strong campaigner. The moderate liberal has fundraised almost as well as the incumbent, and this district is thought to be trending to the left very rapidly. However, it is still GOP-leaning overall, and Wagner is likely a slight favorite.
NEBRASKA-2 NE-2 is a light-red, trending left district covering Omaha and most of its suburbs. Incumbent Don Bacon (R) is running for re-election in a district Biden is likely to win. He faces 2018 nominee Kara Eastman (D) In a rematch after narrowly winning two years ago. Eastman, a bold progressive endorsed by Justice Democrats, the group the elevated Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, was left for dead in 2018 after beating out the Democratic establishment pick in the primary, however, Democrats came to regret that, as she held Bacon to a significantly closer-than-expected two-point margin. Unsurprisingly, Democrats aren’t making the same mistake this time, and she has outraised Bacon slightly and somewhat softened some of her most left-wing edges. Bacon’s incumbency and Eastman’s progressive views make Bacon a slight favorite, but this is the most interesting race of 2020 to me, as Justice Democrats have yet to prove they can win in swing districts, and an Eastman win would bring new credibility to the organization, which to this point has only targeted safe-blue seats.
NEW JERSEY-2 NJ-2 is a purple district that covers the southern tip of the state, including Atlantic City and some Philly suburbs. The incumbent is Jeff Van Drew (D -> R), who made headlines after bucking his party on impeachment and then switching parties. Van Drew, who won this seat by an eight-point margin in 2018, was a moderate liberal in Congress and has, surprisingly, not shifted his voting record much since switching parties, and is easily the most liberal member of the Republican caucus. He faces teacher and nonprofit exec Amy Kennedy (D), wife of ex-RI Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D). Her connections to the Kennedy network and Van Drew’s polarizing nature has led to her outraising Drew slightly for this race. This seat looks to be very competitive, but Van Drew’s “RINO” (Republican in name only) nature may scare off some conservative voters, leading to me giving a slight edge to Kennedy.
NEW YORK-11 NY-11 is a purple district that covers Staten Island and some middle-class neighborhoods of Brooklyn. Afghanistan veteran Max Rose (D) is the incumbent. Rose picked up this seat by a 6-point margin in the 2018 wave in what was considered an upset and has been a moderate liberal in Congress. He has tried to appeal to Republicans by criticizing extremely unpopular NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio (D). Rose faces State Rep. and 2017 NYC Mayoral nominee Nicole Malliotakis (R). Malliotakis lost the 2017 race by a 40-point margin, about in line with expectations. Malliotakis has shown some moderate tendencies, especially on guns and immigration. This race is very competitive, with the slightest of edges to Rose.
OKLAHOMA-5 OK-5 is a red, left-trending district covering most of Oklahoma City, its northern suburbs, and some rural areas. Incumbent Kendra Horn (D) won this seat in the biggest upset of the entire 2018 cycle, ousting an incumbent by a slight margin. She has been moderate in the House but did vote for impeachment. Unsurprisingly, she drew a very strong challenger for this race in State Sen. Stephanie Bice (R). Horn has out-fundraised Bice, but the red lean of the district makes this anyone guess. Gun to my head I’ll pick the incumbent, Horn, but this is very close.
PENNSYLVANIA-10 PA-10 is a light-red district covering Harrisburg and York. Scott Perry (R) is the incumbent. Perry, a Freedom Caucus member, is a questionable fit for the light red nature of the seat, and won re-election by a closer-than-expected three-point margin in 2018, leading to Democrats drawing a very strong recruit for this race – State Auditor Eugene DePasquale, a moderate who has been elected to statewide office twice, and a former legislator from York. DePasquale has fundraised very well for this race, actually slightly outraising the incumbent, and he seems to be the slightest of favorites in the contest.
TEXAS-7 TX-7 is a White-plurality, wealthy, medium-red, left-trending seat covering west Houston and some Houston suburbs. Incumbent Lizzie Fletcher (D) won this historically-GOP seat on the 2018 wave but faces a tough challenger in veteran Wesley Hunt (R). Hunt, a black, establishment conservative, has a compelling story of serving in Iraq and has come up with truly great fundraising of $6.6 million, making him one of the best-funded challengers in the country, outpacing Fletcher. Hunt has endorsements from Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, and if I had to pick a seat where an upset (many other forecasters consider Fletcher a significant favorite) was likely, it would be this one. However, with that being said, this district is trending to the left rapidly, and Fletcher is therefore a slight favorite.
TEXAS-21 TX-21 is a red, left-trending district comprised of upscale, suburban San Antonio and Austin, along with some rural Texas. Incumbent Chip Roy (R) is seeking a second term after being held to a closer-than-expected two-point margin in the wave. Roy is an anti-establishment conservative, seen as a potential heir-apparent to Ted Cruz’s ideology. He faces a tough challenger in ex-State Sen. and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis (D). Davis has incredible fundraising of $8.8 million, among the best for a challenger nationwide, and nearly doubling up Roy. Roy’s anti-establishment nature makes this race very competitive, as Austin has trended left very rapidly, but Roy is still likely a slight favorite.
TEXAS-22 TX-22 is a White-plurality, red, left-trending district covering much of Houston’s southern suburbs. Incumbent Pete Olson (R) is retiring. Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls (R) is the Republican nominee, who is running as a staunch anti-establishment conservative with a focus, unsurprisingly, on crime. 2018 nominee Sri Preston-Kulkarni (D) is seeking to seal the deal after losing to Olson by 5% in 2018. Fluent in multiple languages, Preston-Kulkarni is a strong campaigner and has some progressive tendencies. He also has out-fundraised Nehls 3-to-1, but has been hit for a 1997 arrest for cocaine possession. Like much of Texas, this is a red district that is trending left, but it is still red, and thus Nehls is a slight favorite.
TEXAS-24 TX-24 is a White-plurality, medium-red, left-trending district in the Dallas suburbs. Incumbent Kenny Marchant (R) is retiring. Ex-Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne (R) is the Republican nominee. Van Duyne is an anti-establishment conservative who served as the mayor of a lower-middle-class Dallas suburb for six years. She then served in the Trump HUD department. She faces school board member Candace Valenzuela (D), who has a compelling biography of experiencing homelessness as a child. Valenzuela, who has both Black and Hispanic ancestry, has strong support from national progressives, including an endorsement from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and she has out-fundraised the controversial Van Duyne. Both sides are running candidates that do not seem to appeal to moderates, and in a red, left-trending district, the favorite is unclear. Valenzuela has led the few polls of the race and seems to be a slight favorite, but the race could go either way.
UTAH-4 UT-4 is a red district covering central and southwest Salt Lake County, as well as much of Salt Lake City’s suburbs, along with a large rural tail. Incumbent Ben McAdams (D) is seeking a second term after winning in an upset in the 2018 wave. McAdams has been a moderate liberal in the House but did vote for impeachment. He faces former NFL player Burgess Owens (R), who fell into poverty after leaving the league before converting to Mormonism and turning his life around. Owens has been a national star and is one of the more unique candidates of the cycle running on a platform somewhat similar to the little-known Reform Party, which Donald Trump tried to win the Presidential nomination of back in 2000, although he still is fairly right-wing on fiscal issues. Owens has fundraised very well, although still slightly behind McAdams. McAdams’ incumbency gives him a slight edge, but this is still a red district, and an upset is on the table.
VIRGINIA-5 VA-5, my home district, is a medium-red district covering the Charlottesville area as well as a broad stretch of rural Virginia, from the DC exurbs to the North Carolina border, making the district bigger than the state of New Jersey. Incumbent Denver Riggleman (R) was defeated at the GOP convention after officiating his friend’s same-sex wedding. Republican’s new nominee ex-Campbell County commissioner Bob Good (R), who is most well-known as athletic director for the evangelical Liberty University. Good is running as a red-meat, anti-establishment conservative with a strong emphasis on social issues. He will face a tough race, though, as Physician Cameron Webb (D) has attracted major buzz, outraising Goodnearly 4-to-1. Webb served as a fellow in both the Obama and Trump White Houses and has proven to be a very strong candidate, but the red lean of the district means that Good, despite his controversial nature, is a very slight favorite.
GUBERNATORIAL
Map with probabilistic characterizationsNo tossups, gun to my head prediction
The gubernatorial races this year haven’t gotten much coverage, mostly because they don’t look to be close, but four are worth a mention.
INDIANA Incumbent Eric Holcomb (R) is seeking a second term. Despite being held to a six-point margin in 2016, Holcomb was not expected to face much of a challenge from former state health commissioner Woody Myers (D), however, the race has been thrown into limbo in recent days, as Navy veteran Donald Rainwater (L) has run a very strong campaign. Despite the Libertarian label, Rainwater has mostly just run to Holcomb’s right, hitting him hard on the state’s coronavirus lockdowns, though he does have some classic Libertarian views such as marijuana legalization. One poll had Rainwater taking 24% of the vote, and in a scenario where that poll is accurate, Myers could have a chance to sneak through the middle with Rainwater splitting the right-wing vote. That poll seems to be an outlier and Holcomb remains a strong favorite, but not an overwhelming one. Characterization: Likely R
MISSOURI Incumbent Mike Parson (R) was elevated to this seat when then-Gov.-Eric Greitens (R) resigned. Parson is an establishment conservative that has faced some scandals over his crony-capitalist tendencies and insider nature. He will face State Auditor Nicole Galloway (D), the only statewide elected Democrat in Missouri. Galloway has won statewide election before and does seem to have an angle of attack due to Parson’s COVID response and insiderness, but Missouri remains a red state. Characterization: Likely R
MONTANA The most-watched gubernatorial seat in the country comes from Montana, as Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is termed out. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) is the GOP nominee. Gianforte, the founder of a software company, lost a race for this position in 2016, before dropping down and winning a seat in the House following an infamous “body-slam” assault of a reporter on the day before his 2017 special election. Gianforte pleaded guilty to those charges but remained popular and won a full term in 2018. He has been on the right edge of the Republican caucus in Washington and faces a tough test from LG Mike Cooney (D). Cooney is a career Montana politician who has been endorsed by Bullock. Democrats have held the Governor’s mansion for 16 years, and Gianforte is a weak candidate, but Cooney seems to lack the charisma and “it-factor” that Bullock and Sen. Jon Tester have shown to appeal to crossover voters, and the polls have shown Gianforte ahead, although very slightly. Characterization: Lean R
NORTH CAROLINA North Carolina is a purple state, but incumbent Roy Cooper (D) seems to be a significant favorite for re-election. Cooper won this seat despite Trump carrying the state in 2016, and Cooper has been a popular moderate in office, perhaps in part because the Republican legislature wouldn’t let him do anything. LG Dan Forest (R) is seeking the top job after eight years as the #2. Forest is a staunch social conservative, making him a questionable fit for the purple state. Most polls show Cooper with a wide lead, outperforming both Biden and Cunningham, the Democratic Senate candidate, but Forest could pull an upset if Trump carries the state by a wide margin. Characterization: Likely R
LOOSE ENDS
There are many state legislative elections this year, with the most interesting races being in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Texas. Control of redistricting in some of those states are up for grabs, meaning they have national implications. Republicans will also try and break a Democratic coalition majority in Alaska, and on a good night for Democrats, the legislature in North Carolina or Pennsylvania is certainly in play as well. Additionally, over 20 major cities will have mayoral elections Tuesday, including Baltimore, where a self-funded Independent looks to spoil the Democratic City Council President, and in Portland, where the mayor is getting a challenge from the far-left in a city where criticism over the mayor’s handling of the protests following George Floyd’s death came from both sides.
There are also over 100 ballot initiatives. Some highlights:
In California, voters will decide if Uber and Lyft drivers should be classified as employees, if property taxes should be raised, if the use of cash bail should be eliminated, and if affirmative action can be used in college admissions and government hiring. Florida will vote on switching to a Louisiana-rules top-two primary system for state races, Massachusetts will vote to use ranked-choice voting, and Alaska will vote on a new top-four primary system with ranked-choice voting in the general election.
Coloradans will vote on whether or not the state should join the National Popular Vote Compact, which gives a state’s electors to the winner of the popular vote (although the Compact only goes into effect after a total of states surpassing 270 electoral votes decide to join). Virginia will vote on whether to put the hands of redistricting in a bipartisan commission, and four states: Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota, are voting on whether to legalize recreational marijuana. Finally, Oregon will vote on whether to decriminalize possession of small amounts of all drugs (manufacturing and selling would still be illegal), an issue that unites some on the left along with Libertarians. There is little polling on most of these races, but watching the outcomes will help signal what direction the country is headed in.
Alright, that’s a wrap! Polls begin to close at 6 PM ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Let’s just hope we have a winner at some point in the next 24 hours!
#18 Penn State, fresh off of a loss to Indiana, looks to save their College Football Playoff hopes hosting #3 Ohio State in primetime. Also on the docket:
#10 Florida recovering from an intra-team COVID outbreak, hopes to stave off a challenge from Missouri
#5 Georgia, just one week prior to the big game against Florida, will travel to face a very good Kentucky team
The South’s Oldest Rivalry will renew in primetime: #15 North Carolina vs Virginia
#7 Cincinnati looks to secure their grip on the AAC Title race hosting Memphis
#16 Kansas State and #6 Oklahoma State hope to keep their unbeaten Big 12 records alive facing West Virginia and Texas
A couple of games between teams falling short of expectations and hoping to turn things around: LSU @ Auburn and Virginia Tech @ Louisville
Colorado State (+2) @ Fresno State – Thursday, 10 PM ET, CBSSN Boston College (+31.5) @ #1 Clemson – 12 PM ET, ABC Illinois (+7.5) vs Purdue – 12 PM ET, BTN Baylor (+2.5) vs TCU – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2 Iowa (-1.5) vs Northwestern – 3:30 PM ET, ESPN #18 Penn State (+12.5) vs #3 Ohio State – 7:30 PM ET, ABC
Thursday, October 29th
South Alabama (3-2, 2-0 Sun Belt) @ Georgia Southern (3-2, 1-2 Sun Belt) 7:30 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Georgia Southern -6.5
CSD Pick: Georgia Southern 28, South Alabama 22
Colorado State (0-0, 0-0 MW) @ Fresno State (0-1, 0-1 MW) 10 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: Fresno State -2
Fresno State didn’t impress in their opener against Hawai’i on Saturday, turning the ball over four times and getting thoroughly killed in the run game by a below-average Rainbow Warriors team. The Bulldogs will be at home again here, but I think the fact that CSU has tape on Fresno is a huge advantage, and that the Rams will win this one outright.
CSD Pick: Colorado State 26, Fresno State 23
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Colorado State +2
Friday, October 30th
Minnesota (0-1 Big Ten) @ Maryland (0-1 Big Ten) 7:30 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Minnesota -17.5
CSD Pick: Minnesota 34, Maryland 17
East Carolina (1-3, 1-2 American) @ Tulsa (2-1, 2-0 American) 9 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line: Tulsa -18.5
Boston College (4-2, 3-2 ACC) @ #1 Clemson (6-0, 5-0 ACC) 12 PM ET, ABC Vegas Line: Clemson -31.5
Clemson is going to make the College Football Playoff, but they’ve been a little overrated in my view so far this year, and the data backs that up, as the Tigers are just 2-4 against the spread so far this season. Here, they are laying 31.5 against a Boston College squad that is significantly better than Syracuse, which gave the Tigers a minor scare last week. I like Clemson to win, of course, but Hafley will keep it close.
CSD Pick: Clemson 42, Boston College 16
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Boston College +31.5
#5 Georgia (3-1 SEC) @ Kentucky (2-3 SEC)
12 PM ET, SEC Network Vegas Line: Georgia -15.5
Two of the very best defenses in the nation will square off in this one, as Georgia looks to avoid being caught napping ahead of their big showdown with Florida next week. I like this Kentucky team more than most. The defense is excellent, perhaps the best in the nation at forcing turnovers, and I expect Georgia QB Stetson Bennett to make a couple of errors in this one, but the Kentucky offense is just too anemic to be considered competitive against the Bulldogs. UK’s passing game is the worst in the conference, and while the defense will keep this one within the point spread, it likely won’t be that close.
One of the more interesting games of the day comes from the American, where playoff longshots Cincinnati look to stave off a challenge from Memphis just one week after knocking off undefeated SMU. I do think Memphis is more talented than the Mustangs (despite the head-to-head result), but Cincy will be at home here. The defense is the best in the group of five, and I expect them to hold the great Memphis offense in check. Cincy QB Desmond Ridder will prove the doubters wrong, and the Bearcats will pick up another victory.
CSD Pick: Cincinnati 31, Memphis 23
Michigan State (0-1 Big Ten) @ #13 Michigan (1-0 Big Ten) 12 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: Michigan -23.5
CSD Pick: Michigan 36, Michigan State 12
#16 Kansas State (4-1, 4-0 Big 12) @ West Virginia (3-2, 2-2 Big 12)
12 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line: West Virginia -3.5
A 3-2 team a 3.5-point favorite over the #16 team in the country? Really? Yea. Really. Despite the records, West Virginia has been the better team on the field this year, the Mountaineers are at home, and K-State starting QB Skylar Thompson is out with an injury, leading true freshman Will Howard to run the offense. I like the K-State offense despite the slow tempo – RB Deuce Vaughn is a star – but the West Virginia defense has been incredible this year (granted – against mostly subpar offenses, but isn’t that how you’re supposed to look against subpar offenses?). I like WVU QB Jarret Doege, and the home-field advantage for WVU will help shepherd them to a win.
CSD Pick: West Virginia 22, Kansas State 19
#20 Coastal Carolina (5-0, 3-0 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (2-2, 1-2 Sun Belt) 12 PM ET, ESPNU Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina -1.5
CSD Pick: Coastal Carolina 29, Georgia State 28
#23 Iowa State (3-2, 3-1 Big 12) @ Kansas (0-5, 0-4 Big 12) 12 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Iowa State -28.5
Purdue (1-0 Big Ten) @ Illinois (0-1 Big Ten) 12 PM ET, BTN Vegas Line: Purdue -7.5
Oh god. I feel like I have less of a read on both of these teams after one game than I did before the season, but I’m going to stick with my preseason expectation that the Illini are certainly good enough to keep this within a touchdown at home. I like the Illinois pass rush, and the offense is solid as well. I’ll take the 7.5.
CSD Pick: Purdue 27, Illinois 22
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Illinois +7.5
Wake Forest (3-2, 2-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (1-5, 1-4 ACC) 12 PM ET, ACC Network Vegas Line: Wake Forest -10.5
#17 Indiana (1-0 Big Ten) @ Rutgers (1-0 Big Ten) 3:30 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: Indiana -13
CSD Pick: Indiana 26, Rutgers 13
UAB (4-2, 2-0 C-USA) @ Louisiana Tech (3-3, 2-2 C-USA) 3:30 PM ET, FSN/Stadium Vegas Line: UAB -9.5
CSD Pick: UAB 26, Louisiana Tech 14
TCU (1-3, 1-3 Big 12) @ Baylor (1-2, 1-2 Big 12) 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line: TCU -2.5
Neither one of these teams has done much to impress me the past couple of weeks, on offense especially – neither team has scored more than 16 points since October 3rd. This will be a slow, plodding game between two deeply flawed teams, but at the end of the day, I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer to rebound from some poor performances and pick up a home win over TCU.
CSD Pick: Baylor 24, TCU 23
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Baylor +2.5
LSU (2-2 SEC) @ Auburn (3-2 SEC)
3:30 PM ET, CBS Vegas Line: Auburn -1
Both of these teams remain difficult to get a read on. However, Auburn easily could be 1-4 right now, and Bo Nix has shown no signs of the inconsistencies that plagued his 2019 campaign going away. LSU had last week off to prepare for this one, and despite Myles Brennan’s status for this game being up in the air, I like LSU to pick up a road victory, because karma has to catch up to this Auburn team eventually, right?
CSD Pick: LSU 31, Auburn 30
Northwestern (1-0 Big Ten) @ Iowa (0-1 Big Ten) 3:30 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Iowa -1.5
I’ve seen Northwestern floated as a possible upset pick here after their 43-3 victory over Maryland last week, but to those who like the ‘Cats I say… it was Maryland. Iowa is a significantly more talented team, they are at home here, and they should easily cover the 1.5. Fade the public in this one.
CSD Pick: Iowa 23, Northwestern 18
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Iowa -1.5
Texas (3-2, 2-2 Big 12) @ #6 Oklahoma State (4-0, 3-0 Big 12)
4 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: Oklahoma State -3
The biggest game of the afternoon window comes from the Big 12 – as Texas will square off with Oklahoma State as a talented Longhorns squad hopes to turn their season around following a rough start. A big part of me wants to take Sam Ehlinger and the Longhorns to beat a Cowboy team that is not nearly as good as the #6 next to their name indicates, but the ‘Pokes are at home here, and they have a defense far superior to any Texas has played this year. Ehlinger will keep it close, but Spencer Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, and the Oklahoma State offense will do just enough to keep Okie State unbeaten.
CSD Pick: Oklahoma State 28, Texas 25
Ole Miss (1-4 SEC) @ Vanderbilt (0-3 SEC) 4 PM ET, SEC Network Vegas Line: Ole Miss -17
CSD Pick: Ole Miss 32, Vanderbilt 17
Appalachian State (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) @ UL Monroe (0-6, 0-3 Sun Belt) 4 PM ET, ESPNU Vegas Line: Appalachian State -31.5
CSD Pick: Appalachian State 42, UL Monroe 12
Virginia Tech (3-2, 3-2 ACC) @ Louisville (2-4, 1-4 ACC)
4 PM ET, ACC Network Vegas Line: Virginia Tech -2.5
This is a game between two teams significantly better than their records as Virginia Tech takes on Louisville. I still like this Louisville team a lot, despite the 2-4 record, they can run the ball very well and QB Malik Cunnigham took a big step forward last week, but even I can’t pick them to win this one. VT will be coming out angry here after an upset loss to Wake, and I expect Hendon Hooker and the Hokies to pick up the road W.
CSD Pick: Virginia Tech 30, Louisville 29
#25 Boise State (1-0, 1-0 MW) @ Air Force (1-1, 0-1 MW) 6 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: Boise State -8.5
CSD Pick: Boise State 28, Air Force 18
Mississippi State (1-3 SEC) @ #2 Alabama (5-0 SEC) 7 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: Alabama -32.5
CSD Pick: Alabama 48, Mississippi State 20
New Mexico (0-0, 0-0 MW) @ San Jose State (1-0, 1-0 MW) 7 PM ET, FS1 Vegas Line: San Jose State -13.5
CSD Pick: San Jose State 33, New Mexico 22
Charlotte (2-2) @ Duke (1-5) 7 PM ET, ESPN3 Vegas Line: Duke -11
CSD Pick: Duke 32, Charlotte 22
#3 Ohio State (1-0 Big Ten) @ #18 Penn State (0-1 Big Ten)
7:30 PM ET, ABC Vegas Line: Ohio State -12.5
The game of the day comes from the Big Ten, as Penn State looks to keep their Playoff hopes alive hosting Ohio State. Last week’s game against Indiana was rough for Penn State from the outside looking in, but in all actuality, I think you can discount the loss somewhat. Penn State played like the MUCH better team all game and just got unlucky towards the end with a stupid decision from a player when the Nittany Lions had the game won and two successful two-point conversions from Indiana, the second of which was controversially held up. The Nittany Lions came into the game as 6.5 point favorites and just looking at the stats, they played up to that. My model’s post-game win expectancy (a formula that looks at all the stats and says how often a team should have won the game) gave Penn State an 86%. ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s version of a similar model put the Nittany Lons odds even higher, at 96%, so let’s not adjust our expectations too much based on one performance that was actually more bad luck than PSU actually playing poorly. Now, the Nittany Lions will run into a juggernaut Saturday: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are led by Heisman contending QB Justin Fields, who hit 20 of 21 passes last Saturday. The one incompletion was a receiver drop. Yeah, I guess you could say Fields is pretty good. I expect Fields and OSU to put up a bunch of points and win this game, but Penn State will easily cover 12.5. Lock it up.
CSD Pick: Ohio State 36, Penn State 30
☆Crazy Sports Dude Best Bet Alert☆ – Penn State +12.5
7:30 PM ET, SEC Network Alternate Vegas Line: Florida -12.5
This game is very interesting to me and seems to be flying under the radar a bit. Florida is a very good team, one that still controls their own destiny to a college football playoff appearance, but they run into a Missouri team that has played like a top-25 caliber squad the past couple of weeks. Now, I think Florida’s offense, led by Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts, will be good enough to lead them to a victory here, but watch out for this one during Ohio State-Penn State, because an upset is not out of the question.
CSD Pick: Florida 35, Missouri 22
Navy (3-3, 3-1 American) @ #22 SMU (5-1, 2-1 American) 7:30 PM ET, ESPN2 Vegas Line: SMU -16
CSD Pick: SMU 37, Navy 25
#15 North Carolina (4-1, 4-1 ACC) @ Virginia (1-4, 1-4 ACC)
8 PM ET, ACC Network Vegas Line: North Carolina -6.5
The South’s oldest rivalry has been played since 1892, but it has been dominated by Virginia recently, the Cavaliers have won three straight. This year’s UVa squad is a pretty far step back from last year’s squad that won the Coastal, but they are better than the 1-4 record indicates, QB Brennan Armstrong had to miss some time with injury, and in a rivalry game, you always throw the records out anyways. With that being said, the Virginia offense, even with Armstrong healthy, just isn’t enough to keep up with the UNC run game. I like Virginia, a squad excellent at forcing turnovers, to keep this one a lot closer than many think, but UNC to pull away late.
CSD Pick: North Carolina 36, Virginia 30
#24 Oklahoma (3-2, 2-2 Big 12) @ Texas Tech (2-3, 1-3 Big 12) 8 PM ET, FOX Vegas Line: Oklahoma -15.5
CSD Pick: Oklahoma 40, Texas Tech 27
Louisiana (4-1, 2-1 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (1-6, 1-2 Sun Belt) 8 PM ET, ESPNU Vegas Line: Louisiana -16.5
CSD Pick: Louisiana 35, Texas State 20
San Diego State (1-0, 1-0 MW) @ Utah State (0-1, 0-1 MW) 9:30 PM ET, CBSSN Vegas Line: San Diego State -7
CSD Pick: San Diego State 27, Utah State 20
Western Kentucky (2-4) @ #11 BYU (6-0) 10:15 PM ET, ESPN Vegas Line: BYU -28.5
