2017 A10 TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

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A 10 Tournament Schedule

A 10 Tournament Preview

The Atlantic 10 is clearly the toughest mid-major conference tournament to predict to me. There are seven teams that could possibly win it, and history says it might not even be a team we expect, as we’ve had six different winners in the past seven years. In terms of bracketology, VCU and Dayton are locks to make the NCAA Tournament, Rhode Island is a bubble team, and there are probably four other teams that could steal a bid and make the NCAA Tournament by earning the A 10’s auto-bid. The tournament format is the same as the Big Ten and SEC. The 5-10 seeds get a bye, and the top four seeds get a double bye to Friday.

A 10 Tournament Predictions

The Wednesday play in teams have almost no chance to win the tournament, they would have to win five games in five days to secure the conference’s auto-bid to the NCAA tournament. For what it’s worth, I’ve got 14 seed Duquesne upsetting St. Louis and and I see Umass edging out St. Joe, in a fast-paced, high scoring shootout.

So, after my predictions for Wednesday, the 2nd round matchups would look like this: (8) La Salle vs (9) Davidson, (5) St. Bonaventure vs (12) UMass, (7) George Mason vs (10) Fordham, and (6) George Washington vs (14) Duquesne. Of those games, the easiest to predict is G-Dub over Duquesne. The Colonials have the ability to slow down the game and get open shots, while throwing off their oppositions offense. The other 2nd round matchup on that side of the bracket sees George Mason going up against Fordham. GMU can shot the three ball well, and that leads them to an appearance in the quarterfinals. Moving onto the other side of the bracket we’ve got La Salle and Davidson. Both these teams have the ability to do some damage, but I’ve got the lower-seeded Davidson winning and advancing to play Dayton in the next round. The final second round matchup sees St. Bonaventure and UMass matching up, with the winner playing Rhode Island in the second round. The Bonnies swept the season series and I see them making that 3-0 with another win over Umass here.

The Quarterfinals are set! (1) Dayton vs (9) Davidson, (4) Rhode Island vs (5) St. Bonaventure, (2) VCU vs (7) George Mason, and (3) Richmond vs (6) George Washington. I hate to downplay Davidson and George Mason, but I see Dayton and VCU as locks to make it to the semifinals. They are the clear top two in the conference, and I think it will show, as they cruise to the semis. The other team that could make NCAAs without winning the tournament is Rhode Island, and I think they’ll get a scare from Jaylen Adams and St. Bonaventure, but Rhode Island is the best defensive team in the league, and it will show as they shut down Adams and advance to play Dayton in the semifinals. The final quarterfinal should be a doozy. Richmond comes into Pittsburgh having won four straight, and Rhode Island will have won six straight assuming they get through their first game. While G-Dub comes into this game with the momentum, Richmond is the best shooting team in the Atlantic 10. Five of the six teams that G-Dub has beaten on their streak are ranked below #110 in Kenpom, and I don’t see them being able to defend well enough to stop Richmond’s shooting, so the streak ends here.

The semifinals see the top four teams in the conference going head to head with Dayton facing Rhode Island and VCU facing Richmond. Starting with the latter, for everything Richmond has in terms of shooting, they really lack size and rebounding, and they will be dominated on the boards by a VCU team that leads the conference in offensive rebounds, and swept Richmond in the regular season. So the question becomes, who faces VCU in the tournament finals? Dayton is the safe bet. The Flyers are experienced and well-coached, and they’ve been here before. Dayton has four seniors in their starting five, and are led by Charles Cooke, a guard who can go inside and score, averaging 16 points per game this year. But, in this semifinal, in a crazy year in the A10, I’ve got Rhode Island. The Rams will be playing for a bid to the NCAA tournament, while VCU has already locked up a bid and perhaps gone complacent as evident by a loss to George Washington to close out the year. The Rams spread out their scoring, with four players scoring over 9 points per game, and I see them moving on to the finals.

VCU and Rhode Island do battle to see who will receive the conference’s auto bid. VCU was already locked up, and Rhode Island will be too if they beat Dayton to get here, but winning the conference title is something special. These are the two best defensive teams in the conference. Rhode Island beat VCU earlier this year, and will have won seven in a row if they make it here, but VCU has the edge in pedigree, they won this tournament just two years ago, and everyone in their starting lineup was there for that title. On top of that, VCU is the type of team that once they get hot from behind the arc, there is no stopping them, and I think they catch fire, and win the A10 championship in the battle of the two “Ram” schools.

A 10 Tournament Bracket