AAC TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

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AAC Tournament Preview

The American conference has been a two team race all year long, Cincinnati and SMU have been by far the class of the conference throughout the season, and are the Mustangs and Bearcats have a 100% chance to make the tournament on Sunday, but there is a chance Houston could make the NCAA tournament as an at-large. The rest of the conference would need to win the tournament to get the conference’s auto bid to the big dance.

AAC Tournament Predictions

The tournament opens with Temple and East Carolina. The regular season series between these two teams was split at one game a piece, but I’ve got Temple in this one. East Carolina has the worst offense in the AAC, and while Temple isn’t great offensively themselves, they can shoot the ball well, and I see them walking away with a ten point win over the Pirates.

Tulane and Tulsa square off in the second opening day matchup. Tulane just beat Tulsa on Saturday, but I see Tulsa getting their revenge on Thursday. Tulane plays a fast tempo, and here’s a fun fact about Tulane. They are 1-24 against teams without the word South in their name, and 5-0 vs teams with the word South in their name, that odd trend will continue against a Tulsa team that can shoot freethrows well.

Connecticut swept USF in the regular season, by an average of over 33 points. I’d expect Uconn to blow out the Bulls again, and advance to the quarterfinals. to face Houston.

The quarterfinals kick off with one seed SMU facing Temple. I said it in the preview, and it holds true here, SMU and Cincy have completely outclassed the rest of the conference, and that will continue here. SMU blew out the Owls twice during the regular season, and they will do it again here, advancing to the semifinals.

Memphis and UCF face off with a chance to play SMU on the line. This should be a good game. They split the regular season series. UCF is led by physical beast Tacko Fall, and he leads a great post game for the Knights. They have dominated teams on the glass all year, but to win here they will need to be good inside on both ends of the court. Dedric Lawson is nearly averaging a double-double for Memphis, but I think Fall and company can slow him down inside, and as long as UCF can stay out of foul trouble, they should get the win here.

Tulsa and Cincinnati kick off the second session. There is a little bit of a chance for an upset here, Tulsa took Cincinnati to the buzzer in a close loss in the first meeting between these two teams, but in the rematch, Cincy dominated start to finish, en route to a 20 point win. I expect the Cats to do that again against a Tulsa defense that is third-worst in the conference. Cincy should control this one start to finish as well, give me Cincy by 18.

UConn has won four games in four days before (See Big East tournament) but I don’t see it happening here. Houston swept Connecticut in the regular season. The Cougars defend the three ball well, they avoid turnovers, and while they play a relatively conservative style, it’s worked for the Houston, and it will work again here, as Houston extends their NCAA Tournament hopes.

I’m not gonna lie, SMU should cruise to the final. The Mustangs blew out UCF by 21 in the only other meeting between these teams this year. UCF turns the ball over too much, and they can’t hit free throws, and I find it hard to see the Knights scoring much against SMU’s potent defense. I’ll take SMU by 16 points.

The second semifinal should be much better than the first. Cincinnati swept Houston in the regular season, but a win here for Houston would probably move them into the tournament, while a loss would end their chances. If Houston wants to win this game, they will need Rob Gray to be on his game. The Juco transfer shoots an incredible 40% from three, but Cincinnati has held him to just 25% in the two meetings between these two teams. If the Bearcats can do that again, and I think they can, they will walk away with a win.

What else would it be? If your surprised that my AAC final is Cincinnati vs Houston, you probably haven’t watched much AAC basketball. This should be one of the best conference championship games this year. SMU has the conferences best offense and the second best defense in the AAC according to Kenpom, and Cincinnati has the 2nd-best offense and the best defense in conference. They split the regular season series, with both games being decided by single-digits. Cincinati has played a tougher schedule, and got multiple people on the all-conference teams, but the best player on the court won’t be in a Bearcat uniform. That honor would go to Semi Ojeleye. Ojeleye averages 18.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, and he will lead SMU to a conference title.