COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL PICKS PART FIVE – NEW YEAR’S SIX/PLAYOFF SEMIFINALS + MORE!
#6
Michigan (10-2) vs #11
Florida State (9-3) – Capital One Orange Bowl in Miami, FL – 8PM ET, ESPN (Fri 12/30)
Both of these teams have something to prove in this game. Michigan thinks that it deserved to be in the College Football Playoff, and Florida State is trying to prove that they are better than their record indicates. Florida State has three losses, but if it weren’t for an upset loss at home to North Carolina, there could be an argument that the Seminoles be ranked ahead of Michigan, so don’t think the ‘Noles don’t have a shot at the upset. This game will be a matchup between two of the best defensive lines in the nation. Michigan is ranked 3rd in the country in sacks per game, and Florida State is ranked first. While the Florida State’s defensive front is superb, I can trust the Michigan offensive line to at least slow them down, I can’t say the same for the ‘Noles O-Line. To add to the third ranked defensive line, the rest of Michigan’s defense is just as good, from Jourdan Lewis to Jabrill Peppers the defense is second to only a select few. This game really should be a defensive battle, but I see Dalvin Cook going off for Florida State and putting up some points, but the Michigan offense is better than it gets credit for, and I think they hang over 30 on the Seminoles en route to an Orange Bowl win.
The Pick: Michigan 31, Florida State 23
#17
Florida (8-4) vs 
Iowa (8-4) – Outback Bowl in Tampa, FL – 1PM ET, ABC (Mon 1/2)
This is the only non-New Year’s Six game in this set of previews, and while it won’t be sexy or exciting, it should be close, and if you are a fan of defense, this is the game for you. Both of these offenses are terrible and both of these defense are good, which makes this game a relative tossup. Both of these teams need a win after last year’s bowl performance. Iowa got murdered by Stanford 45-16 in the Rose Bowl, and Florida got blown out 41-7 in the Citrus Bowl, so a win here would be big for both programs. Both of these teams have accomplished a lot over the past two seasons, Florida has won back to back SEC East titles, and Iowa, which used to be a struggling program has had back to back season finishing ranked in the AP Top 25. Despite that, both teams always seem to be overlooked, and a win here is the next step. I’m not really confident in either of these teams, but Iowa converts in the redzone, Florida does not, and I’ve got Iowa to pull the upset.
The Pick: Iowa 20, Florida 19
#15
Western Michigan (13-0) vs #8
Wisconsin (10-3) – Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in Arlington, TX – 1PM ET, ESPN (Mon 1/2)
Many will laugh when I say that Western Michigan has a chance in this game, but in the past three years the “group of five” is 3-0 against power conference teams in major bowl games. UCF beat Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl in the 2014-15 season, and the past two years Boise State has beaten Arizona and Houston has beaten Florida State, so there is precedent for it. Western Michigan also has something few group of five teams have, they have two fantastic players at skill positions. QB Zach Terrell should be able to take advantage of the Wisconsin secondary the way that Penn State did in the second half of the Big Ten championship game, and he will be helped by star receiver Corey Davis. Davis is an All-American that is probably the top NFL prospect for either team in this game. He’s a big receiver at 6’3″, 213 lbs, so he can catch the deep ball, but Davis is also fantastic after the catch for his size, pulling in 91 catches for nearly 1500 yards and 18 touchdowns. While Western Michigan is great at the skill positions, it’s hard to recruit depth and top guys in the trenches to Kalamazoo, and the Broncos offensive line might get exposed here against a great Wisconsin pass rush. I wouldn’t be shocked if Western Michigan wins, but Wisconsin is just too talented for a MAC team, as good as they are, to compete with the Badgers. Wisconsin will control the clock, and they’ll win the game.
The Pick: Wisconsin 38, Western Michigan 27
#9
USC (9-3) vs #5
Penn State (11-2) – Rose Bowl Game pres. by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, CA – 5PM ET, ESPN (Mon 1/2)
This game will probably decide who was the best team that didn’t make the playoff is. Penn State was the only team outside of the top four with a real argument, and while USC didn’t deserve to get in, I’d take the Trojans to beat almost anyone on a neutral field right now. Since switching to Sam Darnold at quarterback the Trojans have been unstoppable. Both teams also come into this games on a huge winning streaks, in fact off the field these teams seem like a carbon copy. USC has won eight in a row, and Penn State has won nine in a row. Both teams also hold a head-to-head win over a playoff team during that time. Both teams are also former powers who were hit with NCAA sanctions and are finally crawling back into the national spotlight. This will be the best bowl game outside of the semifinals, and it will be between two great offenses. Penn State will count on Trace McSorley to bomb all over a terrible USC secondary. While the Penn State offensive line isn’t completely there yet, when healthy RB Saquon Barkley has been one of the best runningbacks in the country. As for USC, the Trojans will count on the high powered offense that doubled up Washington in Seattle to put up points on Penn State. That offense will be led by quarterback Sam Darnold, who was the backup for the first few games of the year, but ever since he was named the starter he has been fantastic, the Trojans are 9-0 in games where he threw one or more touchdown. I think Penn State will lead at the half, but the Trojans will come storming back, and led by Darnold, take the Rose Bowl crown for the first time since 2009.
The Pick: USC 31, Penn State 28
#14
Auburn (8-4) vs #7
Oklahoma (10-2) – Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA – 8:30PM ET, ESPN (Mon 1/2)
This should be a really fun game, but I’m a little worried that these teams won’t be excited to play in it. Both teams are coming in after disappointing years. Oklahoma was a very popular preseason playoff pick, and while the Sooners won the Big 12 title, they missed out on that primary goal. Auburn also had a good year, but not good enough for their expectations. The Tigers are the second highest ranked SEC team, but fans won’t be happy with four losses, including another loss to Alabama, the fifth in the past six years. This game should be an offensive clinic, when healthy, Auburn’s offense was one of the best in the SEC, and with a month’s rest, the Tigers should be back to their peak form. Oklahoma’s offense is ranked third in the country in yards per game, averaging 557 per contest, the Sooners also had TWO Heisman finalists on offense. This game also will matter a lot for the image of the SEC, as I’m writing this on the morning of the 30th, the SEC is 1-4 in bowl games, and if that trend continues to this game, it will confirm what many have thought throughout this season, that the SEC is a one team league. This is one of the toughest games to call this bowl season, as shootouts always are, but Oklahoma has lost three of their last four bowls, and I think that trend continues into this one, and the image of the SEC is saved.
The Pick: Auburn 38, Oklahoma 34
THE PLAYOFF
#4
Washington (12-1) vs #1
Alabama (13-0) – Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (CFP Semifinal) in Atlanta, GA – 3PM ET, ESPN (Sat 12/31)
The Case For Alabama
Do I really need to? Alabama has been unstoppable. The Tide have ran through the SEC, they have shown that they can win in a defensive struggle against a good team when they shut out LSU 10-0 in Death Valley and they have shown they can win by scoring points in a 49-10 road win over Tennessee, a 54-16 win against Florida in the SEC Championship Game, and a 52-6 win over the same USC team that doubled up Washington in Seattle. This Alabama team is so talented that it will at least tie the record for most first rounder’s in a year, and there’s a good chance it could break it. Washington’s best win this year is Colorado, and the Alamo Bowl proved that might not have been that good of a win after all. Washington is a good team, they are fast on defense, but Alabama’s offensive line is the best in the country, and if they pound the running game enough, eventually the Washington defense will break.
The Case For Washington
This year the SEC didn’t live up to expectations, and maybe we’ve been given Alabama too much credit for winning a conference with fourteen teams where the runner up went 8-5. On top of that, Washington plays a much different style than Alabama is used to playing against, and Jake Browning might be the best quarterback Alabama has played outside of Chad Kelly. Kelly plays for Ole Miss, a team that didn’t even make a bowl, yet the Rebels gave Alabama their toughest test of the year, a 48-43 shootout in Oxford, and Browning has many more pieces around him than Kelly did. To win Washington is going to have to pitch a perfect game, and force Alabama to make mistakes, but the Rebels are #1 in the country in turnover margin, and while it is cliché, don’t bet against Chris Petersen with a month to prepare, he brought two Fiesta Bowl titles to Boise State as huge underdogs, who’s to say he doesn’t do it again here?
Who Will Win?
I almost convinced myself writing that case for Washington, and maybe on New Year’s Day, when we all look back on 2016, we will realize that Alabama was overrated the whole time, but right now, I just can’t see it. LSU showed us you can slow down the Bama offense, and Ole Miss sowed us you can score on their defense, but in reality, there really is no reason why Washington should make this close, Washington isn’t big enough, it doesn’t have enough depth, and it got blown out at home against USC. Crazier things have happened, but right now you’d be crazy to pick against this Nick Saban team. I’ve got the Tide by 10.
The Pick: Alabama 34, Washington 24
#3
Ohio State (11-1) vs #2
Clemson (12-1) – PlayStation Fiesta Bowl (CFP Semifinal) in Glendale, AZ – 7PM ET, ESPN (Sat 12/31)
The Case For Clemson
Ohio State hasn’t played a team with as much talent as Clemson all year (sorry, Michigan) and Deshaun Watson is the best quarterback that the Buckeyes have faced all year. While Watson hasn’t won a Heisman, he will go down as on of the best top level college quarterback this decade, he’s already won two ACC Championships, and a win here would make him the first quarterback to start in two College Football Playoff Championship Games. It’s not just the passing game though. Ohio State’s three closest win (Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin) all came against power running teams. Not a lot of people realize it, but Gallman and the Tigers can pound the rock to, and that couple with Watson could bring the Tigers a Fiesta Bowl title against a Buckeyes team that hasn’t played in over a month due to sitting out conference championship week.
The Case For Ohio State
As good as Deshaun Watson is, his one fault is he throws the ball away more than most star quarterbacks, averaging 1.15 interceptions per game this year, and this Ohio State is much better than average, leading the country in defensive pass efficiency, picking off 19 passes, including taking seven to the house in just 12 games. On the other side, Clemson’s secondary is fine, but good quarterbacks have been able to throw on it. Lamar Jackson and Deondre Francois threw for nearly 300 yards and Virginia Tech’s Jerod Evans threw for over 250. Two other teams, NC State and Troy, threw for over 200 yards on the defense. While Clemson did end up beating all of those teams, all of them were close, the Tigers have struggled against the good passing teams on it’s schedule (including Troy). JT Barrett certainly fits into that category.
Who Will Win?
Three out of the four semifinals so far haven’t been good, and I’d be surprised if Alabama didn’t put Washington away early in the second half. This will be the first semifinal between two teams that have made the College Football Playoff before. A win here for Clemson will start to cement the Tigers as a brand name program. The Tigers came so close to beating Alabama in the Championship Game last year, but this year, I think it will be Ohio State going to the Natty Title against the Crimson Tide. Clemson will jump up to an early lead, but J.T. Barrett will throw for 275+ yards against the Clemson secondary, and Curtis Samuel will add some work on the ground leading to a last second field goal for the Buckeyes.n1
The Pick: Ohio State 31, Clemson 30