CSD Prime Computer Model 1-130 Rankings After Week Two

I figured I’ll start off by answering some common questions this week.

Q: How is Miami still ranked?
A: They lost to a top ten team by four on a neutral and a top 30 team by three on the road, that kinda holds true with a what a team ranked around 20th should do, slightly overperforming against Florida and slightly underperforming against UNC, thus they haven’t dropped that much.

Q: How is Missouri still ranked?
A: They lost a game against Wyoming in week one with a lot of turnover weirdness and such. The way the model works is a team is assigned a “game score” and based upon whether or not that is better than expected given their opponent they move up or down. The model gave Missouri a 75% chance to beat Missouri week one, and given the stats of the Wyoming game they actually received a game score of 55, basically meaning that ignoring who won, based on the stats of the game Missouri should have won 55% of the time, this is done to avoid weirdness like fluky fumbles in the redzone or random missed kicks that aren’t truly reflective of a team’s actual strength. Essentially, they underperformed against Wyoming but not to the degree the final score would suggest, then they went out and smacked West Virginia this week, so they gained back a lot of the bit they did lose.

Q: That game score thing is interesting, were there any games this week where the team that played better according to the model actually lost?
A: Of course, although it happens less frequently than you’d think. This week there were just two cases, both involving college overtime weirdness: Kent State, which beat Kennesaw State in overtime had a game score of 49, Florida State, which beat ULM in overtime had a game score of 39.

Q: Who was the most dominant team this week?
A: Kansas State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama, Washington State, Oklahoma, Florida, and NC State all had game scores of 100 this week. The highest game score vs a power-five opponent was Iowa against (of course) Rutgers with a 98.

Q: What is the best conference in college football?
A: Average ratings listed below, no real surprises, the most notable thing probably being that the Sun Belt, generally considered to be the weakest conference, comes in 8th.

1. SEC (Average: +9.8)
   2. Big Ten (Average: +4.9)
   3. Big 12 (Average: +3.7)
   4. Pac-12 (Average: +2.9)
   5. ACC (Average: +2.5)
   6. AAC (Average: -2.7)
   7. MWC (Average: -4.1)
   8. Sun Belt (Average: -6.7)
   9. MAC (Average: -7.2)
   10. CUSA (Average: -7.4)

Q: Who are the biggest movers so far?
A: In the positive direction: North Carolina, Utah State, Maryland, SMU, Kansas State, Colorado State, Cal, Tulane, San Deigo State, and Virginia. In the negative direction: Tennessee, Florida State, FIU, Appalachian State, Arizona State, Nebraska, Syracuse, North Texas, Virginia Tech, and UAB.

Q: Best G5s/Worst P5s?
A: Ah, a classic. The current best G5s are:

1. UCF
2. Boise State
3. Memphis
4. Cincinnati
5. Fresno State
6. Utah State
7. San Diego State
8. BYU (if you count them)
9. Toledo
10. Temple

The current worst P5s are (with worst being #1):

1. Kansas
2. Rutgers
3. Oregon State
4. Illinois
5. Louisville
6. Tennessee
7. Duke
8. Georgia Tech
9. Arkansas
10. Indiana

Q: Alright, can I just see the rankings?
A: Here ya go:

Rank	Team	Conf	Rating	RANK	Change	YTD Change
1	Alabama	SEC	33.08599	1	0	0
2	Georgia	SEC	26.92519	2	0	0
3	Clemson	ACC	22.21501	3	0	0
4	Louisiana State	SEC	19.11623	4	0	0
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	17.93373	5	0	0
6	Oklahoma	Big 12	16.37617	6	0	0
7	Texas A&M	SEC	13.69634	7	4	4
8	Notre Dame	Ind	12.68836	8	1	2
9	Florida	SEC	11.89075	9	1	-1
10	Michigan	Big Ten	11.60558	10	-3	-3
11	Penn State	Big Ten	10.52036	11	-3	-2
12	Auburn	SEC	10.33326	12	0	0
13	Oregon	Pac-12	10.12147	13	4	4
14	Texas	Big 12	9.790799	14	1	0
15	Mississippi State	SEC	9.693867	15	-2	-2
16	Wisconsin	Big Ten	8.754645	16	2	11
17	Miami (FL)	ACC	8.602314	17	-1	1
18	Iowa	Big Ten	8.515574	18	1	1
19	Central Florida	AAC	8.330505	19	2	3
20	Missouri	SEC	6.905871	20	2	-4
21	Utah	Pac-12	6.750926	21	-1	7
22	Southern California	Pac-12	6.650839	22	5	1
23	Oklahoma State	Big 12	6.187131	23	0	3
24	Washington	Pac-12	6.017842	24	-10	-9
25	Michigan State	Big Ten	5.756093	25	-1	-5
26	Boise State	MWC	5.568146	26	-1	6
27	Texas Christian	Big 12	5.062925	27	1	-2
28	Minnesota	Big Ten	5.0003	28	15	10
29	North Carolina	ACC	4.507913	29	10	33
30	Stanford	Pac-12	4.373999	30	-4	-6
31	Virginia	ACC	4.314181	31	-1	14
32	South Carolina	SEC	4.076443	32	-1	-11
33	Northwestern	Big Ten	3.93109	33	1	7
34	Maryland	Big Ten	3.777269	34	21	25
35	Kansas State	Big 12	3.385608	35	11	19
36	North Carolina State	ACC	3.299047	36	2	-1
37	Memphis	AAC	3.162661	37	-8	-7
38	Washington State	Pac-12	3.143485	38	7	3
39	Iowa State	Big 12	2.776653	39	-3	-8
40	California	Pac-12	2.547569	40	25	16
41	Cincinnati	AAC	2.400967	41	1	3
42	Kentucky	SEC	2.180927	42	-10	-6
43	Baylor	Big 12	2.051593	43	10	7
44	Purdue	Big Ten	2.022051	44	4	-1
45	Nebraska	Big Ten	1.955811	45	5	-16
46	Fresno State	MWC	1.782309	46	-13	5
47	Utah State	MWC	1.695648	47	4	26
48	Mississippi	SEC	1.691177	48	-7	0
49	Virginia Tech	ACC	1.59731	49	-14	-12
50	West Virginia	Big 12	1.142465	50	2	-8
51	San Diego State	MWC	0.567442	51	25	15
52	Vanderbilt	SEC	0.524253	52	6	5
53	Arizona State	Pac-12	0.436715	53	-16	-20
54	Colorado	Pac-12	0.387931	54	35	9
55	Arizona	Pac-12	0.287892	55	-8	-8
56	Boston College	ACC	0.22933	56	1	8
57	Brigham Young	Ind	0.163802	57	11	1
58	Pittsburgh	ACC	-0.21455	58	1	-5
59	UCLA	Pac-12	-0.32177	59	-15	-10
60	Syracuse	ACC	-0.33369	60	-11	-14
61	Toledo	MAC	-0.35404	61	5	13
62	Temple	AAC	-0.64396	62	1	8
63	Wake Forest	ACC	-0.68431	63	4	-8
64	Houston	AAC	-0.95411	64	-8	1
65	Southern Methodist	AAC	-1.0305	65	6	24
66	Florida State	ACC	-1.05096	66	-26	-32
67	Indiana	Big Ten	-1.18064	67	2	-6
68	Army	Ind	-1.18277	68	19	10
69	Tulane	AAC	-1.2675	69	11	15
70	Arkansas	SEC	-1.29109	70	7	-2
71	Texas Tech	Big 12	-1.29714	71	-9	-11
72	Ohio	MAC	-1.42715	72	1	0
73	Marshall	CUSA	-1.55603	73	8	-6
74	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	-1.67621	74	-20	-22
75	South Florida	AAC	-1.81181	75	17	0
76	Georgia Tech	ACC	-1.82225	76	-16	-7
77	Duke	ACC	-1.93185	77	1	-6
78	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	-1.94404	78	-14	1
79	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	-1.95469	79	3	-3
80	Northern Illinois	MAC	-1.98618	80	11	5
81	Tennessee	SEC	-2.07676	81	-20	-42
82	Southern Mississippi	CUSA	-2.13925	82	6	0
83	Troy	Sun Belt	-2.57102	83	0	-6
84	Western Michigan	MAC	-2.68991	84	11	2
85	Wyoming	MWC	-3.12751	85	-15	5
86	Tulsa	AAC	-3.42299	86	8	12
87	Colorado State	MWC	-3.5159	87	-12	16
88	Louisville	ACC	-3.55454	88	2	4
89	Illinois	Big Ten	-3.56062	89	-17	-8
90	Louisiana	Sun Belt	-3.76743	90	-4	-2
91	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	-3.87602	91	2	2
92	Middle Tennessee State	CUSA	-3.90728	92	-18	2
93	North Texas	CUSA	-4.08871	93	5	-13
94	Nevada	MWC	-4.19463	94	-9	1
95	Air Force	MWC	-4.36079	95	1	2
96	Buffalo	MAC	-4.40386	96	9	4
97	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	-4.87625	97	-18	-10
98	Oregon State	Pac-12	-5.04987	98	4	3
99	Western Kentucky	CUSA	-5.36604	99	8	6
100	Hawaii	MWC	-5.53258	100	-1	2
101	Eastern Michigan	MAC	-6.1068	101	5	5
102	Miami (OH)	MAC	-6.46148	102	-2	-3
103	Alabama-Birmingham	CUSA	-6.59812	103	-2	-12
104	Rutgers	Big Ten	-6.76636	104	-1	0
105	Florida International	CUSA	-7.02564	105	-21	-22
106	East Carolina	AAC	-7.33331	106	-2	1
107	Kansas	Big 12	-8.13407	107	-10	-11
108	Kent State	MAC	-8.24439	108	2	3
109	Texas State	Sun Belt	-8.35692	109	2	3
110	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	-8.58337	110	7	-1
111	Charlotte	CUSA	-9.89385	111	7	3
112	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-10.2492	112	-3	8
113	Nevada-Las Vegas	MWC	-10.9181	113	-1	-5
114	Old Dominion	CUSA	-11.0021	114	5	1
115	Navy	AAC	-11.0756	115	-1	-5
116	Ball State	MAC	-11.3618	116	-8	-3
117	Texas-San Antonio	CUSA	-11.8482	117	-2	2
118	Liberty	Ind	-12.2958	118	2	3
119	South Alabama	Sun Belt	-12.4246	119	-6	4
120	Bowling Green State	MAC	-12.8517	120	-4	-2
121	New Mexico	MWC	-13.4498	121	0	-4
122	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	-13.7004	122	6	6
123	San Jose State	MWC	-14.0084	123	-1	-7
124	Rice	CUSA	-14.5104	124	-1	3
125	Central Michigan	MAC	-14.8254	125	-1	-3
126	Akron	MAC	-15.0957	126	1	0
127	New Mexico State	Ind	-15.3068	127	-2	-2
128	Massachusetts	Ind	-17.5731	128	-2	-4
129	Connecticut	AAC	-18.9342	129	1	0
130	Texas-El Paso	CUSA	-19.4175	130	-1	0