MY COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL PICKS PART TWO
Bowl picks part one: 4-4 (50%)
Overall: 174-57 (75%)
Idaho (8-4) vs 
Colorado State (7-5) – Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID – 7PM ET, ESPN (Thu 12/22)
Idaho is moving to the FCS (Division 1-AA) after the 2017-18 season, but the Vandals are going out with a bang, with their second winning season in the past 17 years. On top of that, this game is really meant for Idaho, the bowl name literally has Idaho in it (It’s actually a five and a half hour drive to Boise from the Idaho campus, but don’t tell anyone) The Vandals are 2-0 in bowl games in history. Both of those wins were in this bowl. However, they will come up against a Colorado State team that has one of the best offenses in the Mountain West. That offense is spearheaded by Junior QB Nick Stevens. Stevens took over halfway through the year, and he has been excellent since, boasting a 14-1 TD-INT ratio. To add to that, the Idaho secondary really isn’t that good. Both of these teams come in hot, having won four of their last five games, but I’ve got the Rams.
The Pick: Colorado State 38, Idaho 26 (Idaho +15, Under 65)
Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs 
Old Dominion (9-3) – Popeyes Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas – 1PM ET, ESPN (Fri 12/23)
The first two Popeyes Bahamas Bowls have been shootouts (45-31 last year and 49-48 in 2014) and I would expect more of the same this year, as both of these teams rely on high powered offenses. Both schools also have a lot to play for, as this is Eastern Michigan’s first bowl in a generation and Old Dominion’s first bowl ever. Eastern Michigan’s passing attack is one of the best in the nation, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. ODU’s offense is led by fantastic skill position players: QB David Washington has 28 touchdowns on the year, and RB Ray Lawry is averaging 144 yards per game over the last five games. The Monarchs also have a trio of great receivers. Jonathan Duhart and Zach Pascal each have eight touchdowns on the year, and Travis Fulgham has 7 touchdowns on just 28 catches. In a shootout like this, I feel a lot more comfortable riding the hot hand, and ODU has scored 135 points in their last three games.
The Pick: Old Dominion 38, Eastern Michigan 30 (Old Dominion -4.5, Over 64)
Louisiana Tech (8-5) vs #25
Navy (9-4) – Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX – 4:30PM ET, ESPN (Fri 12/23)
In what will be the headliner of this batch of bowl games, two teams that won their respective divisions (C-USA West for La Tech, and the AAC West for Navy) will go head to head in the Armed Forces Bowl. Both of these teams count on their offense, but in different ways. Louisiana Tech has the nation’s third best passing offense, and Navy has the fourth best rushing offense. Both teams perform well in bowls, Navy has won three bowls in a row, and Louisiana Tech has won three of their past four. Navy hasn’t been able to stop a good passing attack this year, and Louisiana Tech has a pair of fantastic receivers in Trent Taylor and Carlos Henderson who have combined for 196 catches for 1,976 yards and 27 touchdowns. Navy’s rushing attack will put up some points early, but once this game turns into a shootout it will force Navy to throw, and quarterback Zach Abey has thrown for zero touchdowns on four interceptions in his only two games this year, and both of those have been losses. I’ve got the Bulldogs.
The Pick: Louisiana Tech 41, Navy 30 (Louisana Tech -6.5, Over 67.5)
Ohio (8-5) vs 
Troy (9-3) – Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL – 8PM ET, ESPN (Fri 12/23)
Everyone seems pretty down on this matchup, but this is a sneaky underrated matchup. Ohio made it to the MAC Championship game and gave Western Michigan a run for their money. As for Troy, the Trojans were ranked in my top 25 and the AP top 25 at one point after they started the season 8-1. Both teams are good, but have kind of spiraled towards the end of the year, as both have lost two of their last three games. Both of these teams also rely on their defense, specifically the rush defense, as both of these teams are ranked in the top 25 in that category. So with the running game out of the question, I’m sticking with the team with the better quarterback, and that’s Troy, QB Brandon Silvers has thrown for nearly 3000 yards and 22 touchdowns, and this game will be played pretty close to Troy’s campus in Troy, Alabama.
The Pick: Troy 31, Ohio 24 (Troy -4, Over 49)
Hawai’i (6-7) vs 
Middle Tennessee (8-4) – Hawai’i Bowl in Honolulu, HI – 8PM ET, ESPN (Sat 12/24)
This is the only bowl game to be played Christmas weekend, and it’s an interesting one. Hawai’i actually got to play 13 games this year without making it to a conference championship due to a rule called the Hawai’i exemption which means the Rainbow Warriors and teams that play them on the road get to have an an extra week of rest or an extra home game to offset the travel expenses. That extra game allowed Hawai’i to sneak in a sixth win and therefore a bowl appearance. This game will be played at Hawai’i’s home stadium, but it might not be a merry Christmas Eve for Hawai’i fans, Middle Tennessee’s offense has been really good, scoring 38 points or more in nine games, and in their last game, the Blue Raiders blew out Florida Atlantic 77-56. To add to that, the Hawai’i defense is pretty much non-existent, and they have the worst rush defense of any bowl team, and Middle Tennessee ran for nearly 500 yards in their last game, this will be a blowout.
The Pick: Middle Tennessee 44, Hawai’i 24 (Middle Tennessee -4.5, Under 70)
Miami (OH) (6-6) vs 
Mississippi State (5-7) – St. Petersburg Bowl in Saint Petersburg, FL – 11AM ET, ESPN (Mon 12/26)
Mississippi State is another one of those teams with a losing record that made a bowl just to fill out the slots, although it was for a different reason than Hawai’i. Once the NCAA fills out all of the teams with six or more wins, the next bowl bids go to teams with five wins that have the best APR or academic progress rate, and Mississippi State was one of those teams. They will be taking on Miami of Ohio, who also has an interesting story of how they made it into this game, the RedHawks started the year 0-6 and then finished it 6-0. That has been on the back of quarterback Gus Ragland, who only played the back half of the year but still accumulated 1,274 yards and 15 touchdowns with no interceptions. As good a story as it is, this is still an SEC team vs a MAC team, it will be a lot closer than everyone thinks, but Mississippi State will win.
The Pick: Mississippi State 34, Miami (OH) 27 (Miami (OH) +14, Over 58.5)
Maryland (6-6) vs 
Boston College (6-6) – Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit, MI – 2:30PM ET, ESPN (Mon 12/26)
If you are a fan of fast paced, high scoring games, this match up is not for you. This will be a low scoring, defensive slug fest, but this game means a lot for each of these programs, Boston College didn’t win a single conference game last year, so a bowl win would be a massive step forward for Steve Addazio’s crew. As for Maryland, the Terps haven’t won a bowl game since moving to the Big Ten, so a win here would be huge for the future of the program. Maryland has the edge on the offensive side of the ball, if barely, Boston College hasn’t been able to convert on third downs and that will be a problem but in a slugfest like this, I think that the Boston College offense can score just enough, and the fantastic defense of the Eagles will be able to hold down the Terps, and carry the Golden Eagles to a bowl win.
The Pick: Boston College 20, Maryland 17 (Boston College +1, Under 43.5)
NC State (6-6) vs 
Vanderbilt (6-6) – Camping World Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA – 5PM ET, ESPN2 (Mon 12/26)
Both of these two teams feel like they are a year early for a trip to a bowl game, but it is great to see teams like Vanderbilt finally making a bowl game after a long drought, and NC State appeared to be taking a step back this year, but a road upset over their rival North Carolina punched a bowl ticket for the Wolfpack. Last year’s Independence Bowl was a fun shootout, with Virginia Tech beating Tulsa 55-52. This game will be close, but it will be the opposite in terms of points, as both of these teams pride themselves on defense. NC State’s pass rush is very good, but in a slow game like this I trust Vandy to weather that storm. This game will not have many fireworks, but the few that come will be via Kyle Shurmur who has averaged 291 yards per game over the past four games for Vanderbilt, and I think he leads the Commodores to a late score and a win.
The Pick: Vanderbilt 24, NC State 20 (Vanderbilt +4, Push [Over/Under 44])
Army (7-5) vs 
North Texas (5-7) – Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl in Dallas, TX – 12PM ET, ESPN (Tue 12/27)
The final game of this batch of previews features another 5-7 APR team in North Texas taking on an Army team that was surprisingly very good this year. These two teams actually played back in October, and that was a 35-18 win for North Texas, but Army turned the ball over seven times during that game, and I doubt that they’ll again. I really like Army’s option attack, but the problem is that North Texas has had a month to prepare for it, and if Army gets behind the Black Knights are awful throwing the ball. On the other side, North Texas has faded down the stretch, holding a 1-4 record since the game against Army. At the end of the day, You can’t completely shut down an option attack as good as Army’s, and I really like the defense of Army. I think they shut down North Texas’ offense, and win the Heart of Dallas bowl.
The Pick: Army 27, North Texas 16 (Army -10, Under 49)