2017 Big Ten Tournament Preview

Regular Season Standings

Seed	School	Conf.	Overall
1	Purdue	14–4	25-6
2	Wisconsin	12–6	23-8
3	Maryland	12–6	24-7
4	Minnesota	11–7	23-8
5	Michigan State	10–8	18-13
6	Northwestern	10–8	21-10
7	Iowa	10–8	18-13
8	Michigan	10–8	20-11
9	Illinois	8–10	18-13
10	Indiana	7–11	17-14
11	Ohio State	7–11	17-14
12	Nebraska	6–12	12-18
13	Penn State	6–12	14-17
14	Rutgers	3–15	14-17

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

	Game	Time	Matchup		Television
First round – Wednesday, March 8
	1	4:30 pm	No. 13 Penn State vs. No. 12 Nebraska		ESPN2
	2	7:00 pm	No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Ohio State		BTN
Second round – Thursday, March 9
	3	12:00 pm	No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Illinois		BTN
	4	2:30 pm	Game 1 winner vs. No. 5 Michigan State
	5	6:30 pm	No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Indiana		ESPN2
	6	9:00 pm	Game 2 winner vs. No. 6 Northwestern
Quarterfinals – Friday, March 10
	7	12:00 pm	Game 3 winner vs. No. 1 Purdue		ESPN
	8	2:30 pm	Game 4 winner vs. No. 4 Minnesota
	9	6:30 pm	Game 5 winner vs. No. 2 Wisconsin		BTN
	10	9:00 pm	Game 6 winner vs. No. 3 Maryland
Semifinals – Saturday, March 11
	11	1:00 pm	Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner		CBS
	12	3:30 pm	Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner
Championship – Sunday, March 12
	13	3:00 pm	Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner		CBS

Big Ten Tournament Preview

The Big Ten conference is the opposite of the Pac 12. The Pac 12 has three really good teams and the rest of the conference is bad, but in the Big Ten, there are no top ten teams, but the conference is really deep. Ten different teams have a >1% chance of winning via Teamrankings.com, which is the most of any of the major conferences. In terms of the NCAA Tournament, seven teams from the conference have already locked up NCAA bids: Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan, and Michigan State. Two more teams are sitting on the bubble in Iowa and Illinois. Both teams would probably need two wins in DC to make it into the big dance. Let’s get on with the predictions.

Big Ten Tournament Predictions

I said the Big Ten is really deep, but to be honest, these opening day teams have no shot at winning the tournament. They would have to win five games in five days, but I’ll predict them anyway. Ohio State should cruise by Rutgers in the second game of the day. Rutgers ranks 339th in the country in Kenpom’s effective field goal percentage, and while it’s been a down year for Ohio State, they should get the win on the first day and advance to face Northwestern in the next round.

The other opening day game should be a little bit more competitive. Both teams really struggled down the stretch, with Penn State losing their last five games, and Nebraska lost their last four games by an average of 20 points each, including a 36 point loss to Michigan in their most recent game. Losing by that much in your final game does not do well for your confidence going into the tournament, and I see plucky, young, and motivated Penn State team getting revenge for Nebraska’s early season win, and moving on to face Michigan State on Thursday.

The second round kicks off with one of the best games of the tournament. Michigan comes into the tournament on the back of a win vs Purdue on February 25th, so the Wolverines have momentum. Illinois on the other hand is a bubble team, that looked like it was going to make the field until a loss vs Rutgers. The Illini now probably need two wins to make it back into the field. These two teams split the regular season series, and if Illinois is going to win this game they will need Maverick Morgan to be strong inside. The senior averaged 15 points and 7 1/2 rebounds over the last two games of the regular season, and he’ll need to continue that for the Illini to advance.  Michigan’s star player is Derrick Walton Jr.. The guard made first team all-big ten, averaging 15,5, and 5 on the year. The Wolverines are hot, and they continue their streak by ending Illinois’ NCAA Tournament hopes.

between two young teams as Penn State and Michigan State square off with the winner moving on to face Minnesota in the quarterfinals. Michigan State should win this one, the Spartans are battle tested. They have dealt with injuries, and played a tough schedule, but they have came out with the 5 seed, and they should get a big win over an inexperienced Penn State team that has a bright future.

The third game of the day is where I could see an upset. Iowa is playing for an NCAA Tournament bid, but Indiana is playing desperate. The Hoosiers came into the season with sky high expectations, and ever since losing to IPFW, their season has feel apart, it will be important to Indiana, especially the seniors to try and leave an impact by going on a run in the tournament. These two teams went to overtime in the only other matchup this year, a game that was at Iowa. If the teams were tied at Iowa, it would suggest that Indiana is a couple points better on a neutral court, so I’ve got Indiana.

The final game of the day pits Ohio State against Northwestern. Ohio State’s strength is offense, while Northwestern has a top-30 defense in the country via Kenpom. The Wildcats beat Ohio State on the road earlier in the year, and they should get another win here against a Buckeye team that turns the ball over way too much. Northwestern advances to face Maryland.

The quarterfinals start with a tournament-final quality matchup. Under two weeks ago Michigan upset the top-seeded Purdue Boilermakers, and here in DC, Purdue will get a shot at revenge. Derrick Walton Jr. went off in that game, but here I’ve got a feeling that the Boilermakers will put a lot more pressure on him defensively, that will lead to mistakes. Purdue has always been good inside, but their perimeter shooting and guard played has improved over the course of the year, and it showed this past Sunday in a road victory over Northwestern. Michigan will still make the NCAA tournament, but their run at a Big Ten title will end after just one win.

Minnesota will get a chance to prove itself on the national stage against the perennial blueblood Michigan State. The Gophers won just two Big Ten games last year, and now they find themselves with a double bye in the Big Ten tournament and a top-6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota is a really good team, but for whatever reason, they just don’t match up well against Michigan State. MSU swept Minnesota during the regular season and the second game was a blowout. By luck of the draw, the Gophers got matched up with Michigan State, and they just can’t defend All-Big Ten star Miles Bridges with their lack of presence inside, and the Spartans will get the win.

Wisconsin got lucky in this scenario. The Badgers lost to Iowa at home on Thursday, but after Indiana’s upset of the Hawkeyes, they won’t have to deal with them. Wisconsin swept Indiana during the regular season, and I see them rebounding from a poor end to the year and beating the Hoosiers to advance to the semifinals.

The final quarterfinal of the day pits Northwestern against Maryland. Maryland beat Northwestern by ten on the road earlier this year, and Melo Trimble is a bad matchup for the ‘Cats. Northwestern’s guards will struggle to guard Trimble, and he will go off for a 20+ point game, en route to a Maryland win. Northwestern has limped into this tournament after a strong start to the year. NW ended the regular season losing six of their last nine, and those woes will continue, as Maryland advances.

Two of the Big Ten’s best big men will square off as Caleb Swanigan and Purdue square off against Miles Bridges and Michigan State. Bridges and Swanigan will likely go pro after this year, so this will be the last time we see them face off in college. Swanigan is a double-double machine. He averages 19 points and 13 rebounds per game, I would expect Bridges to hold him to around his season average, but the rest of Purdue’s team will outclass a Michigan State that has been plagued with injuries all year long, and the Boilermakers advance to the finals.

Wisconsin vs Maryland, with the winner facing Purdue in the finals. Wisconsin seemed to be struggling down the stretch, but a blowout victory over #4 seed Minnesota on Sunday gave me some confidence. In the only matchup between these two teams this year, the Badgers got an eleven point victory, and I expect them to get another win here. The Badgers are the best defensive team in the conference, so if anyone can slow down Melo Trimble, it will be the Badgers. In conference play the Terps have not performed well when they can’t run the offense through Trimble, so if the Badgers can stop him, they’ll win the game, advancing to the final against Purdue.

Purdue and Wisconsin will face off in the Big Ten final, these two teams last played in early January, an eleven point win for Purdue. Wisconsin has the best defense in the Big Ten, but their offense has struggled, especially as of late, but the Badgers can control the flow of the game with their tempo. Purdue on the other hand, has a much more balanced attack, the #2 team in the Big Ten in both offense and defense. As mentioned, Caleb Swanigan is a double-double machine, and while Wisconsin is great defensively, they are banged up and have had a year plagued with injuries. I see Purdue’s perimeter attack being able to stretch the floor to open up Swanigan down low, leading to a Boilermaker victory, and a four seed in the NCAA Tournament

Big Ten Tournament Bracket

First round Wednesday, March 8 ESPN2/BTN					Second round Thursday, March 9 ESPN2/BTN					Quarterfinals Friday, March 10 ESPN/BTN					Semifinals Saturday, March 11 CBS					Championship Sunday, March 12 CBS
											1	Purdue
											8	Michigan
						8	Michigan
						9	Illinois
																1	Purdue
																5	Michigan State
											4	Minnesota
											5	Michigan State
						5	Michigan State
						13	Penn State
	12	Nebraska
	13	Penn State
																					1	Purdue
																					2	Wisconsin
											2	Wisconsin
											10	Indiana
						7	Iowa
						10	Indiana
																2	Wisconsin
																3	Maryland
											3	Maryland
											6	Northwestern
						6	Northwestern
						11	Ohio State
	11	Ohio State
	14	Rutgers