COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS AND GAMES TO WATCH FOR WEEK 13

Last Week: 11 correct, 4 incorrect (73%)
Season: 142 correct, 48 incorrect (75%)

*Note: There are a lot of Tier 2 games this week because it’s rivalry week and I tried to include most of the big rivalries even if the teams are having a down year (EX: Duel in the Desert, etc.)

LSU (6-4) @ Texas A&M (8-3) – 7:30PM ET, ESPN (Thursday)

The Pick: LSU

NC State (5-6) @ North Carolina (8-3) – 12PM ET, ESPN (Friday)

The Pick: North Carolina

TCU (5-5) @ Texas (5-6) – 3:30PM ET, Fox Sports 1 (Friday)

The Pick: Texas

#16Nebraska (9-2) @ Iowa (7-4) – 3:30PM ET, ABC (Friday)

The Pick: Iowa

Toledo (9-2) @ #21Western Michigan (11-0) – 5PM ET, ESPN2 (Friday)

The Pick: Western Michigan

Arizona State (5-6) @ Arizona (2-9) – 9:30PM ET, ESPN (Friday)

The Pick: Arizona State

Virginia (2-9) @ Virginia Tech (8-3) – 12PM ET, ESPN2

The Pick: Virginia Tech

Georgia Tech (7-4) @ Georgia (7-4) – 12PM ET, SEC Network

The Pick: Georgia

Kentucky (6-5) @ #11Louisville (9-2) – 12PM ET, ESPN

The Pick: Louisville

Kansas (2-9) @ Kansas State (6-4) – 12PM ET, Fox Sports 1

The Pick: Kansas State

Purdue (3-8) @ Indiana (5-6) – 12PM ET, ESPNU

The Pick: Indiana

Illinois (3-8) @ Northwestern (5-6) – 12PM ET, Big Ten Network

The Pick: Northwestern

Mississippi State (4-7) @ Ole Miss (5-6) – 3:30PM ET, SEC Network

The Pick: Ole Miss

Notre Dame (4-7) @ #12USC (8-3) – 3:30PM ET, ABC

The Pick: USC

Oregon (4-7) @ Oregon State (3-8) – 4PM ET, Pac12 Network

The Pick: Oregon

South Carolina (6-5) @ #4Clemson (10-1) – 7:30PM ET, ESPN

The Pick: Clemson

#17Tennessee (8-3) @ Vanderbilt (5-6) – 7:30PM ET, SEC Network

The Pick: Tennessee

#15Florida (8-2) @ #14Florida State – 8PM ET, ABC

The Pick: Florida State

#5Washington (10-1) @ #23Washington State (8-3) – 3:30PM ET, FOX (Friday)
[Spread: Washington -6.5]

If Washington wins out  they should be in the College Football Playoff, a win here for Washington State makes the Cougars one win away from a Rose Bowl appearance, and if that wasn’t enough, this game is a de facto Pac-12 quarterfinal with the winner facing either USC or Colorado in the Pac 12 championship game next week. The Apple Cup has always been a rivalry game where weird things tend to happen, and the past three times this game was in a presidential year, Washington State has won. I just think Jake Browning and Washington are too talented for the Cougars. Luke Faulk will throw for a bajillion yards like always, but a late touchdown will seal the deal for Washington, carrying them to a Pac-12 North title.

The Pick: Washington 45, Washington State 35 (Washington -6.5)

#3Michigan (10-1) @ #2Ohio State (10-1) – 12PM ET, ABC
[Spread: Ohio State -6.5]

In 2006 Ohio State and Michigan played in the famous 1-2 game, 10 years later we have a game that is arguably just as big. According to 538’s College Football Playoff “Choose your own scenario” a win for Ohio State takes their playoff chances from 61% all the way to 92%, and a win for Michigan brings the Wolverines from 37% to 83%. Because of the versatility of Jabrill Peppers, and the sheer power of having a top 5 defense, I would have picked Michigan on the road here, but after the loss to Iowa two weeks ago, followed by a lackluster performance in the win against Indiana, you’ve got to think momentum is not on Michigan’s side. To make matters worse for the Wolverines, they don’t even know if QB Wilton Speight will play, because of that, I’ve got the Buckeyes to win here.

The Pick: Ohio State 27, Michigan 24 (Michigan +6.5)

Michigan State (3-8) @ #7Penn State (9-2) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN
[Spread: Penn State -12.5]

Now wait, before you Floridians get mad about me putting a game featuring a 3-8 team in my Tier 1 games instead of Florida-Florida State, this game has big implications for the playoff.  A Penn State win here + a Michigan loss would mean Penn State would go to the Big Ten title game, it would be interesting how the committee views a 2 loss conference champ with a win over a 1 loss non conference champ, but most people say it was a fluke. If Michigan State pulls the upset, Ohio State would go to the Big Ten Title game, and it’s not out of the question, Michigan State was one play way from beating Ohio State last week, but the Spartans ended up falling 17-16. This game is `at home for Penn State, and the Nittany Lions have a lot more to play for, I’ve got PSU.

The Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan State 19 (Michigan State +12.5)

Minnesota (8-3) @ #6Wisconsin (9-2) – 3:30PM ET, Big Ten Network
[Spread: Wisconsin -14]

A win here for Wisconsin gives them a spot in the Big Ten Title game, and an outside shot at the playoffs. Minnesota has kind of flown under the radar because of their poor strength of schedule, but the defense led them to a 17 point win over Northwestern last week. Both teams rely on their ground game, as the passing attacks for each of these teams is kind of lackluster. I think Minnesota’s run D will keep this one closer than most expect up until the end, but both of these teams run basically the same style, Wisconsin just does it a little better all around. That, coupled with the home field advantage for Wisconsin will mean that the Paul Bunyan Axe will stay in Madison for one more year.

The Pick: Wisconsin 28, Minnesota 20 (Minnesota +14)

#13Auburn (8-3) @ #1Alabama (11-0) – 3:30PM ET, CBS
[Spread: Alabama -17.5]

If Alabama were to lose this game I would probably keep them at #1 in the country, the Tide have been head and shoulders above everyone else in the country, but in a rivalry game like the Iron Bowl anything can happen. Auburn can’t make the playoff, but a win here will basically guarantee the Tigers a New Year’s Six bowl berth and of course the old cliche holds true, games like this “just mean more”. 17.5 points is a big spread, and Auburn has really impressed me in the back half of this year so I think they cover, but the Crimson Tide have just been so good this year, they will win the Iron Bowl for the 5th time in the past six years.

The Pick: Alabama 35, Auburn 24 (Auburn +17.5)

#22Utah (8-3) @ #9Colorado (9-2) – 7:30PM ET, FOX
[Spread: Colorado -10]

Had Utah been able to stave off Oregon last week this would be another Pac-12 semifinal, now, a Colorado win still means the Buffs go to the Pac 12 title game, but a Utah win actually means that USC will represent the South next week. I really like Utah RB Joe Williams, who has ran for 149 or more yards every game since coming out of retirement, but the Colorado run defense is one of the best in the Pac-12, and I think they will do enough to slow down Joe Williams to beat Utah at home for the first time since 1957, and continue on their path to a possible College Football Playoff spot.

The Pick: Colorado 35, Utah 26 (Utah +10)