MY SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS, PREDICTION AND 99 PROP BETS
Introduction
It’s finally time ladies and gentleman, the 50th anniversary of the super bowl is just hours away, and the matchup is one we could have only dreamed of. The best offense in the NFL against the best defense in the league. It’s Tom Brady, who gets all the attention, against Matt Ryan, who puts up the same stats year-in and year-out, yet gets a fraction of the coverage. It’s the plucky underdog Falcons, who haven’t ever won a Super Bowl, against the Yankees of football: the New England Patriots, who have had one losing season in the past twenty-one years.
Why the Falcons Offense may be Unstoppable
The only way for the Patriots to win this game is to slow down the Falcons’ offense. Kyle Shanahan and co. have done a fantastic job, using the duo of Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman to keep defenses honest, which leads to Matt Ryan being able to throw against the defense. It’s a catch 22 for defenses, stop the run, and you risk being beat downfield, or give receivers a cushion, which will lead to your defense being eaten up by the two backs. Many teams have tried to slow down the Falcons by taking out their best weapon, Julio Jones, but even that hasn’t done the trick, in fact in games where Julio Jones has had 40 yards or less, the Falcons offense has still been outstanding, averaging around 35 points per game in such cases.
Falcons on a Roll
The Falcons are the hot team right now, they have annihilated each of their playoff opponents thus far, disposing of the Seahawks and the Packers in blowout wins for Atlanta, the Falcons will also walk into Houston on Sunday with the probable MVP of the NFL, as Matt Ryan looks to be the favorite to win that award after a fantastic year, including a perfect 18 touchdowns to no interceptions from December onward. A hot quarterback in the postseason has been nearly impossible to beat in history, and it’s not just Ryan, the Falcons are the best offensive team in the country, despite playing an NFC conference filled with good defenses.
Best Defense in the NFL
While a lot has been made of the Falcons’ offense, the fact that the Patriots defense is the best in the NFL is getting lost on some people. The Pats have only allowed a team to score over twenty once in the past two months, including limiting Pittsburgh’s “three B’s” to just seventeen points a couple weeks ago in the AFC Championship game, the Steelers were ranked seventh in the NFL in yards per game, so the Patriots are coming off of a win vs an offensive team, so don’t get too excited about the Over just yet. In fact, in past Super Bowl’s where it has been #1 offense vs #1 defense, the defense has won five out of six times.
Verdict
An interesting fact that has been floating around the internet in the past two weeks is that Tom Brady, despite playing in six super bowls, has never scored a point in the first quarter of those six Super Bowls, a combined hour and a half of game time. If the Pats start slow again, it will allow the Falcons to dictate the pace, and if the Falcons can turn up the heat and score double digits in the first quarter, it will force the Patriots to switch their play style. That will play right into the Falcons’ hands, because if this game becomes a shootout, the Falcons are going to win, and if history is any indication, the Falcons should be able to force the Patriots into doing just that
The Pick: Falcons 31, Patriots 24
BETTING! (yeah)
I’m going to give my prediction for every prop but out by Bodova, there are a lot of them. If you want to skip to only ones about the game scroll down a little and there will be another header, scroll even further down to see RANDOM CRAP props. Spreads are even unless otherwise noted.
Let’s start with the easy ones.
Patriots -3 vs Falcons : Falcons +3
Why: Read the whole first five paragraphs
Over/Under 59 Total Points: Under
Why: Patriots have the best defense in the NFL, and the Falcons have a gameplan to stop Tom Brady
Heads or Tails: Tails
Why: I googled justflipacoin.com
Will the team that chooses Heads/Tails be correct: No
Why: The Patriots always choose heads
Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game: Yes
Why: The Patriots always choose heads, and it will be tails
Team to win coin toss: Falcons
Why: Patriots always choose heads
How long will it take Luke Bryan to sing nat’l anthem (Over/Under 2:15): Over
Why: Average length is 1:58, and I think Bryan will try to be different
What will Luke Bryan be wearing when he starts singing the nat’l anthem (Blue Jeans vs other): Blue Jeans (-200)
Why: I googled a picture
Will Luke Bryan be wearing a hat when he appears on screen before singing the nat’l anthem: No
Why: He’s in front of millions of people, doesn’t want to be yelled at via twitter
Will Luke Bryan forget or omit a word from the nat’l anthem: No (-700)
Why: See above reason
Which song will Lady Gaga sing first: Edge of glory (+600)
Why: I don’t know, had to make a guess
What color will Lady Gaga’s hair be: Blonde, duh (-500)
Why: Isn’t her hair blonde?
THE GAME
First scoring play: Touchdown (-165)
Why: I think Matt Ryan will start out hot
Team to score first in the game: Falcons
Why: Tom Brady has never score in the 1st quarter of a Super Bowl
Team to score last in the game: Falcons
Why: I think the Falcons tack on a FG in the last five minutes
First Touchdown Scorer: Mohamed Sanu (+1400)
Why: I think it will be a passing TD, but Julio is going to be covered, so I think Sanu steps up.
First Touchdown Scorer (Patriots): LaGarrette Blount (+450)
Why: I think Blount gets a rushing TD as the Pats first score
First Touchdown Scorer (Falcons): Mohamed Sanu (+600)
Why: See predix for first overall TD scorer
First score of the game exact outcome: Falcons TD (+190)
Why: I’ve already laid it out
First score of the game (Patriots): TD (-165)
Why: Down 7-0 they will need to answer
First score of the game (Falcons): TD (-155)
Why: Already said why many times
First offensive play of the game: Run (-150)
Why: I think Falcons get ball first, and establish ground game to start
MVP: Matt Ryan (+275)
Why: Unless they have a bad game (Peyton Manning cough cough) it always goes to the winning QB
Who will the Super Bowl MVP first mention after he is presented with trophy (Team/Coach/Owner/God/Trump): Team (+200)
Why: It’s the right thing to do
What color will the liquid be that is poured on the winning coach: Orange (+300)
Why: Best flavor of gatorade
Total team point (Patriots) O/U 30.5: Under (+110)
Why: Lined out in original prediction
Total Team Points (Patriots) First Quarter: O/U 7: No bet
Why: I think it will be 7
Total Team Points (Pats) 1st half (O/U 15): Over (-140)
Why: I think they’ll be at 17
Total Team Points (Falcons) (O/U 27.5): Over (-140)
Why: Outlined already
Total Team Points (Falcons) First Quarter (O/U 6.5): Over (-150)
Why: They’ll be at 7
Total Team Points (Falcons) First Half (O/U 14.5): Over (-135)
Why: They’ll be at 21
Total TD’s (O/U 6.5): Over (-140)
Why: They’ll be 7
TD’s (Pats) (O/U 3.5): Under
Why: I’m done doing why’s there are way more of these than I thought
TD’s (Falcons) (O/U 3.5): Over
Exact # of TD’s: 7 (+450)
# of TD’s (Pats): 3 (+375)
# of TD’s (Falcons): 4 (+350)
Longest yardage TD (O/U 52.5): Under
Team to score longest TD: Falcons
How Many yards will first TD be: 16-25 (+450)
Team to score shortest TD: Patriots
FG’s (O/U 3.5): Under (+120)
Pats FG’s (O/U 1.5): Under (+175)
Falcons FG’s (O/U 1.5): Under (+125)
Longest FG (O/U 47.5): Over
Team to make longest FG: Pats
Shortest FG (O/U 25.5): Over
Team to make shortest: Falcons
First missed FG: Wide Right
Will Both teams make 33+ yd FG’s: Yes
FG’s: 2 (+450)
Pats FG’s: 1 (+250)
Falcons FG’s: 1 (+210)
O/U 76 Points: Under (-1000)
First Half Margin: Falcons up 4-6 points (+900)
Margin of victory: Falcons by 7-12 (+650)
First team to 10: Falcons
Highest scoring qrter: 2nd (+140)
highest scoring 1/2: 1st
Score at end of 1st: Tie (+375)
1st Half Tie: No (-1800)
1st qrter tie: Yes (+375)
Score in first 7.5 min: Yes (-225)
Score in first 6.5 min: No (+145)
Score in first 5.5 min: No (+105)
OT: No (-1500)
More 1st downs: Patriots
First turnover: Falcons
# of penalties (O/U 12.5): Over
First turnover: INT (+130)
# of penalties on Pats (O/U 6): Under
# of penalties on Falcons (O/U 6): Over
1st penalty: Falcons
Will the team with more penalty yards win: Yes (+110)
What will be first penalty: False Start (+260)
First challenge: Pats
First challenge result: Overturned
2pt conversion attempted: NO (-150)
2pt conversion successful: No (-200)
RANDOM CRAP
Who will Trump pick to win: Patriots (-500)
How many times will Trump be said (O/U 1.5): Over
Kneeling during nat’l anthem?: No (-400)
Tom Brady rushing yards, or Trump’s interview (minutes): Brady rushing yards (+170)
Word lacrosse mentioned?: Yes (-250)
JJ Watt mentioned?: No (-150)
Gronk mentioned over/under 3 times: Over
“Matty Ice” said over/under 2 times: No
Matt Ryan both MVP’s: Yes (+225)
Deflategate mentioned over under 1.5 times: Over
Which coach mentioned first: Belichick
Gisele Bundchen shown (O/U 1.5): Under
Robert Kraft shown (O/U 2.5): Over
Julio Jones yards orCeltics points scored: Julio yards (+110)
Patriots first half points(1st half) or Dwyane Bacon points: Bacon
Julio Jones receptions or Kyle Lowry assists: Julio
Falcons points or Demar derozan points: Falcons
Patriots points or Russell Westbrook points: Westbrook