College Football Predictions and Best Bets for Week Five

 Straight Up (35 Games per week, but hurricanes caused cancellations in Weeks 1&2)

Week One: 30-4 (88%)
Week Two: 26-6 (81%)
Week Three: 26-9 (74%)
Week Four: 27-8 (77%)
Season: 82-19 (80%)

ATS Best Bets

Week One: 3-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$ + 400$ original investment)
Week Two: 8-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 700$ + 900$ original investment)
Week Three: 6-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 500$ + 700$ original investment)
Week Four: 3-5 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$ from 800$ original investment)
Season: 20-8 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 1200$ +2800$ original investment)

Best Bets for Week Five

Vanderbilt (+10) over Florida (12PM)
USF (-21) 0ver East Carolina (12PM)
Kansas State (-14.5) over Baylor (3:30PM)
Stanford (-17) over Arizona State (4PM)
Washington (-26.5) over Oregon State (8PM)
Colorado (+8) over UCLA (10:30PM)
Colorado State (-6) over Hawai’i (11:59PM)

Poll Rankings are AP Top 25 not my own, check out the CSD Top 25 For Week 5 by clicking the link

Tier One Games

#14Miami-FL (2-0) @ Duke (4-0) – 7PM ET, ESPN (Friday)

You better be in front of a TV on Friday night. Two of the five tier one games for this week will be on Friday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a top 15 team go down in one of the two games. While AP voters may have snubbed them, I have Duke ranked 21st in the nation right now. The Blue Devils are 4-0, with three of those wins coming against power five opponents, but Miami isn’t Baylor, North Carolina, or Northwestern. The ‘Canes have only played two games this year, but running back Mark Walton has averaged an extraordinary 13 yards per carry, and the Duke defense will have to play tight in the box, opening up Miami’s highly touted recievers in one-on-one coverage, and as long as Malik Rosier can make those throws, the ‘Canes should be in good shape.

Prediction: Miami 34, Duke 24

#5USC (4-0) @ #16Washington State (4-0) – 10:30PM ET, ESPN (Friday)

Hey, don’t get mad at me Pac-12 fans, I have Washington in my top six… but both of these teams are overrated. I have Washington State at #20, and USC at #11. Washington State needed triple overtime to beat Boise State at home, the same team that VIRGINIA (who went 2-10 last year) beat by three possessions on the road. USC, same thing, they struggled with a Western Michigan team whose only wins are over Idaho and Wagner, and they probably should have lost at home to 1-2 Texas. As for who is going to win this game, I think it will be high scoring, Luke Falk will probably have about 17,648,274 passing yards (football jokes), and at the end of the day, even on the road, I see the talent gap between these two teams as too big, and Sam Darnold will finally play like 2016 Sam Darnold.

Prediction: USC 40, Washington State 33 

#24Mississippi State (3-1) @ #13Auburn (3-1) – 6PM ET, ESPN

People kind of wrote off Auburn off after they lost to Clemson, but I kept them in the top 15. That game, in Death Valley, wasn’t pretty, it was a drag out 14-6 win for Clemson, the next week Clemson hung 47 on Louisville, and people started to realize only losing by eight on the road wasn’t such a bad result. As for Mississippi State, it’s been a tale of two locations. At home (CSU and LSU) the Bulldogs won by a combined score of 86-7, but on the road (UGA and Louisiana Tech) that combined score drops to 60-52, a pretty sizable swing, even if you don’t count the Georgia game. This one is on the road, against an Auburn team trying to prove they aren’t done just yet, and I see the Auburn defense gritting out a win.

Prediction: Auburn 28, Mississippi State 23

#2Clemson (4-0) @ #12Virginia Tech (4-0) – 8PM ET, ABC

Virginia Tech wins this game, and they are immediately catapulted into national title contention, this will be the biggest game of the young Justin Fuente era. At home, under the lights, primetime on ABC where the ESPN Game of the Week goes. Bud Foster’s defense will come to play, but so will Clemson’s. The Tigers have one of the best defensive lines in the country, and two weeks ago against Louisville, they came to play and held Lamar Jackson to his worst game of the season (still an incredible performance, but comparatively) due to the constant pressure. I don’t see Josh Jackson handling that pressure well. Give me Clemson by two possessions.

Prediction: Clemson 33, Virginia Tech 24

Ole Miss (2-1) @ #1Alabama (4-0) – 9PM ET, ESPN

Oh boy, somebody is about to get MURDERED. Shea Patterson has averaged 427 yards per game over the first three games, he’s not throwing for 427 yards against this Alabama defense. At home, against an Ole Miss team that has been Nick Saban’s kryptonite over the past five years, I see this being a slaughter similar to last week’s 59-0 beatdown of Vanderbilt. Alabama will prove why they are the #1 team in the country. The Tide defense will pick off Patterson two or three times, and for the second week in a row, Alabama will have control of another SEC West team from the opening kickoff to the end of the game.

Prediction: Alabama 44, Ole Miss 14

Tier Two Games

Texas (1-2) @ Iowa State (2-1) – 8PM ET, ESPN (Thursday)

Prediction: Texas 38, Iowa State 34

Northwestern (2-1) @ #10 Wisconsin (3-0) – 12PM ET, ABC

Prediction: Wisconsin 40, Northwestern 21

Florida State (0-2) @ Wake Forest (4-0) – 3:30PM ET, ABC

Prediction: Florida State 28, Wake Forest 17

#7Georgia (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-1) – 3:30PM ET, CBS

Prediction: Georgia 31, Tennessee 23

Indiana (2-1) @ #4Penn State (4-0) – 3:30PM ET, BTN

Prediction: Penn State 41, Indiana 23

Arizona State (2-2) @ Stanford (2-2) – 4PM ET, Pac-12 Network

Prediction: Stanford 47, Arizona State 20 (Stanford -17 is a BEST BET for Week Five)

Memphis (3-0) @ UCF (2-0) – 7PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: UCF 34, Memphis 30

South Carolina (3-1) @ Texas A&M (3-1) – 7:30PM ET, SEC Network

Prediction: Texas A&M 35, South Carolina 27

#15Oklahoma State (3-1) @ Texas Tech (3-0) – 8PM ET, Fox

Prediction: Oklahom State 51, Texas Tech 35

California (3-1) @ Oregon (3-1) – 10:30PM ET, Fox Sports One

Prediction: Oregon 40, California 27

Tier Three Games

Nebraska (2-2) @ Illinois (2-1) – 8PM ET, Fox Sports One (Friday)

Prediction: Nebraska 24, Illinois 17

#18South Florida (4-0) @ East Carolina (1-3) – 12PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Prediction: South Florida 49, East Carolina 17 (USF -21 is a BEST BET for Week Five)

Houston (2-1) @ Temple (2-2) – 12PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: Houston 31, Temple 21

North Carolina (1-3) @ Georgia Tech (2-1) – 12PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Georgia Tech 35, North Carolina 24

Vanderbilt (3-1) @ #21Florida (2-1) – 12PM ET, ESPN

Prediction: Florida 21, Vanderbilt 19 (Vanderbilt +10 is a BEST BET for Week Five)

Maryland (2-1) @ Minnesota (3-0) – 12PM ET, Fox Sports One

Prediction: Minnesota 33, Maryland 14

Syracuse (2-2) @ NC State (3-1) – 12:20PM ET, ACC Network Extra

Prediction: NC State 38, Syracuse 23

Navy (3-0) @ Tulsa (1-3) – 3:30PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: Navy 38, Tulsa 31

Baylor (0-4) @ Kansas State (2-1) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Kansas State 47, Baylor 17 (Kansas State -14.5 is a BEST BET for Week Five)

Eastern Michigan (2-1) @ Kentucky (3-1) – 4PM ET, SEC Network

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Eastern Michigan 20

Iowa (3-1) @ Michigan State (2-1) – 4PM ET, Fox

Prediction: Iowa 24, Michigan State 21

Miami-OH (2-2) @ #22Notre Dame (3-1) – 5PM ET, NBCSN

Prediction: Notre Dame 37, Miami 21

Marshall (2-1) @ Cincinnati (2-2) – 7PM ET, ESPN3

Prediction: Cincinnati 23, Marshall 21

Troy (3-1) @ #25LSU (3-1) – 7PM ET, ESPNU

Prediction: LSU 31, Troy 17

#11Ohio State (3-1) @ Rutgers (1-3) – 7:30PM ET, Big Ten Network

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Rutgers 9

#6Washington (4-0) @ Oregon State (1-3) – 8PM ET, Pac-12 Network

Prediction: Washington 48, Oregon State 14 (Washington -26.5 is a BEST BET for Week Five)

Northern Illinois (2-1) @ #19San Diego State (4-0) – 10:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network

Prediction: San Diego State 33, Northern Illinois 21

Colorado (3-1) @ UCLA (2-2) – 10:30PM ET, ESPN2

Prediction: Colorado 33, UCLA 31 (Colorado +8 is a BEST BET for Week Five)

Colorado State (2-2) @ Hawai’i (2-2) – 11:59PM ET

Prediction: Colorado State 40, Hawai’i 24 (Colorado State -6 is a BEST BET for Week Five)