2017 Big East Tournament Preview

Regular Season Standings

Big East Tournament Schedule

Big East Tournament Preview

The Big East has six teams already locked into the NCAA Tournament: Villanova, Butler, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, and even Seton Hall are all safe bets to make the big dance. Xavier will join them if they can get past Depaul on the opening day. The Big East gets a lot of credit for being the “deepest” conference in basketball, as the conference could get 70% of their teams in, which would be the most of any conference, but there is a clear #1 in the Big East. Defending national champion Villanova won the conference by a full three games, and it would come as a shock if they didn’t win the tournament, but Butler has already beaten the Cats twice, can they make it a third?

Big East Tournament Prediction

The tournament kicks off with Georgetown against St. Johns. Both teams had very disappointing years, and Georgetown may even fire John Thompson III after this year, as the Hoyas ended the year on five straight losses, and have lost seven of their past eight. St. John’s is a good team when their shooters are hot, but they are pretty inconsistent. The Red Storm have beaten Syracuse, Butler, and Marquette, but have also lost games to LIU Brooklyn and kenpom #335 Deleware State. I see St. Johns, playing on their home court, to be energized, and have one of their “good days”, beatin Georgetown for the second time in two weeks.

The other game on opening day sees Xavier face off against Depaul. Depaul won just two conference games this year, and Xavier just beat them on Wednesday, I’ve got Xavier cruising to a 20+ point win, and ending another disappointing year for Depaul.

St. John’s will then have to face tournament favorite Villanova. I really like St. John’s, but the Red Storm are young and inexperienced, and just don’t have the talent to match up against the Wildcats. SJU is probably two years away from being able to compete against a team like ‘Nova, and the home crowd favorite will lose in their second game.

The next game is a big one, Marquette is my 7th last team in the tournament, and Seton Hall is my 8th last team in the tournament, and while I expect that the loser of this game will probably still make the tournament, they might have to play in the first four in Dayton, and depending on if any bid stealers emerge, they could have an outside shot at being NIT bound. Both of the meetings between these two teams were decided by three points or less, and the second matchup went to overtime. Angel Delgado is a double-double machine for Seton Hall, and if he gets going through the high post there will be nothing stopping him. Marquette has a very balanced scoring attack. They have five different players averaging double figures in points, and it works, the Eagles have the 8th-best offense in the country according to Kenpom, that offense will be able to get Seton Hall out of their comfort zone, and make them play more up-tempo, which works to Marquette’s favor.

The next semifinal sees Butler and Xavier face off. Xavier has the talent to pull off the upset here, but the Musketeers got swept by Butler in the regular season, and Xavier has never really recovered from Edmond Sumner’s injury, the Musketeers haven’t won a game since February 4th against teams other than Depaul, and I don’t see that changing, as Butler will dispatch of the X’s rather easily, which will make Xavier very worried on selection Sunday.

The final game on Thursday has some potential for an upset. Creighton started the season 18-1, and looked like a legit national title contender, but an injury to star PG Maurice Watson has sent the Bluejays flying out of control, Creighton has gone 5-7 since and dropped all the way to the six seed, but they look like they are starting to figure things out without him. Marcus Foster has turned into a prolific scorer, and Justin Patton has anchored everything down low. Providence is overseeded in this tournament, and it will come back to bite them. Two weeks ago Creighton lost by two to the Friars, they get redemption here, and make it to the semis.

After a pair of upsets in the quarterfinals, the semis are set, with (1) Villanova taking on (5) Seton Hall, and (2) Butler facing (6) Creighton. It would be a shock if Villanova did not make the finals. I think Seton Hall is actually a really underrated team, but they got swept by Villanova, and lost by an average of twenty-six points in the two meetings between them this year, that big of a talent gap can’t be shrunk in a few weeks, so I have Villanova advancing to the finals.

The second semifinal has a much larger chance for an upset. Creighton really struggled down the stretch, but I’ve always though that the Bluejays, even without Watson, have enough talent to contend for a Big East title, but I don’t think they match up very well with Butler. The Bulldogs are a smashmouth, grind it out type of the team with a deep bench, and they will get a banged up Creighton team into foul trouble, and sneak out a five point win, setting up a third bout with Villanova in the finals.

Villanova only lost three games during the entirety of Big East conference play, and two of those three were to Butler. Butler might be Nova’s kryptonite. The Bulldogs won each game against Villanova this year by eight points, but it’s really hard to beat a team as good as Villanova three times in one year, Jalen Brunson has emerged as a sharpshooter, and Josh Hart is my current frontrunner for player of the year. Villanova shot very poorly in both regular season matchups, but as long as they can stay out of foul trouble, the Cats should avenge their regular season losses to Butler, and secure a one seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Big East Tournament Bracket Predictions