Week Ten College Football Picks and ATS Best Bets

Straight Up
Week One: 29-6 (83%)
Week Two: 29-6 (83%)
Week Three: 26-9 (74%)
Week Four: 27-8 (77%)
Week Five: 29-6 (83%)
Week Six: 27-8 (77%)
Week Seven: 26-9 (74%)
Week Eight: 26-9 (74%)
Week Nine: 23-12 (67%)
Season: 242-73 (77%)
ATS Best Bets
Week One: 3-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Two: 8-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 700$)
Week Three: 6-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 500$)
Week Four: 3-5 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Five: 4-3 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Six: 3-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 100$)
Week Seven: 4-2 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 200$)
Week Eight: 2-4 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve lost 200$)
Week Nine: 4-1 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 300$)
Season: 37-20 (100 dollar bet on each would’ve won 1,700$)
Week Ten Best Bets
Penn State (-10) over Michigan State – 12PM ET, Fox
Washington (-17) over Oregon – 10PM ET, FS1
Tier One
#7
Penn State (7-1) @ #24
Michigan State (6-2) – 12PM ET, Fox
I dropped Michigan State all the way out of my top 25, and I do regret leaving USF in over the Spartans, but any hopes of a College Football Playoff berth went down the drain. Michigan State still controls its own destiny in the hunt for a Big Ten title. Penn State does not, but I only dropped the Nittany Lions to #5 in my rankings, because if the two teams played head-to-head, there is no way I would take Oklahoma over Penn State, no matter who beat Ohio State and who didn’t. This game isn’t going to be close. Saquon Barkley and the rest of this Penn State team are going to be motivated following the loss (on the road to a top four team), and Michigan State lost to a Northwestern team that can only be described as “meh”. If this game was within two touchdowns it would be a surprise to me.
Prediction: Penn State 35, Michigan State 17 (Penn State -10 is a BEST BET for Week Ten)
#4
Clemson (7-1) @ #20
NC State (6-2) – 3:30PM ET, ABC
First of all, why is Clemson #4? Really, #4? A team that lost to Syracuse is #4. Don’t feed me the Kelly Bryant injury nonsense, he played half the game, and Clemson was losing when he left anyway. Clemson is still a very good team that just had a bad night, and I had them at #6, but top four seems excessive to me. NC State is a team I’m having a hard time figuring out. The Wolfpack got killed last week by the #3 team, and they are at home against Clemson with an opportunity for a season-changing win and a spot in the ACC Title game. This screams trap game to me, but assuming Kelly Bryant is back to 100%, which looked like the case last week, I can’t pick against a team with this good of a defense. It’ll be low scoring, but I think the Tigers get the job done in a close one.
Prediction: Clemson 31, NC State 23
#5
Oklahoma (7-1) @ #11
Oklahoma State (7-1) – 4PM ET, Fox Sports 1
I had both of these teams two spots away from the committee. Oklahoma 7th (yes, behind Ohio State, because a season is more than one game), and Oklahoma State 9th (yes, ahead of TCU, because a season is more than one game). This is essentially a playoff elimination game, the loser has no shot, and the winner controls their own destiny to at worst a top-five spot, depending on what happens elsewhere. I’m taking Oklahoma State in this game because I can’t trust Oklahoma, the same reason I have the Sooners outside of my top six, they’ve been lucky this year. Games against Baylor, Kansas State and Texas all came down to the final minutes, OU very well could be 4-4 right now based on how they played in those games. I’m taking the home team, and the Mason Rudolph-led ‘Pokes.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 45, Oklahoma 42
#13
Virginia Tech (7-1) @ #10
Miami (7-0) – 8PM ET, ABC
I put Virginia Tech ahead of Miami in my top 25 this week, and I’m going to stand behind that ranking and pick the Hokies to go into Coral Gables and pick up a road win over a top ten team. Virginia Tech, while not having played any top-tier team since West Virginia, has dominated each and every game this year outside of that Clemson game. That includes a game against a resurgent Boston College team that won @ Louisville, @ 5-1 Virginia, and against Florida State in three straight weeks. Miami, while not having a one in the loss column, has done the opposite. The last four games have all been close one-possession wins that come down to the wire, including last week against 1-8 North Carolina. This is the week that the luck runs out.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 30, Miami 27
#19
LSU (6-2) @ #2
Alabama (8-0) – 8PM ET, CBS
Something happened after the Troy game that lit a fire under this Ed Orgeron team, and they have been unstoppable ever since, but now they face the immovable object, the Alabama Crimson Tide. We all hear the news stories about how Nick Saban doesn’t pay attention to the news, but really, you have to think there is at least a little bit of extra motivation now that the Tide lost that little number one next to their name. LSU has been playing quality defense for the past month, but come on guys, its Alabama. LSU almost pulled the upset in this game last year, I don’t think it will be that close again in 2017. Give me Jalen Hurts and Alabama by three touchdowns.
Prediction: Alabama 38, LSU 17
Tier Two
#9
Wisconsin (8-0) @
Indiana (3-5) – 12PM ET, ABC
Prediction: Wisconsin 38, Indiana 20
#14
Auburn (6-2) @
Texas A&M (5-3) – 12PM ET, ESPN
Prediction: Auburn 34, Texas A&M 21
South Carolina (6-2) @ #1
Georgia (8-0) – 3:30PM ET, CBS
Prediction: Georgia 37, South Carolina 14
Wake Forest (5-3) @ #3
Notre Dame (7-1) – 3:30PM ET, NBC
Prediction: Notre Dame 33, Wake Forest 24
#21
Stanford (6-2) @ #25
Washington State (7-2) – 3:30PM ET, Fox
Prediction: Stanford 34, Washington State 28
#6
Ohio State (7-1) @
Iowa (5-3) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN
Prediction: Ohio State 35, Iowa 17
#18
UCF (7-0) @
SMU (6-2) – 7:15PM ET, ESPN2
Prediction: UCF 47, SMU 31
Texas (4-4) @ #8
TCU (7-1) – 7:15PM ET, ESPN
Prediction: TCU 27, Texas 20
Oregon (5-4) @ #12
Washington (7-1) – 10PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Prediction: Washington 41, Oregon 17 (Washington -17 is a BEST BET for Week Ten)
#22
Arizona (6-2) @ #17
USC (7-2) – 10:45PM ET, ESPN
Prediction: USC 44, Arizona 40
Tier Three
Northern Illinois (6-2) @
Toledo (7-1) – 6PM ET (Thursday), ESPNU
Prediction: Toledo 34, Northern Illinois 26
Navy (5-2) @
Temple (3-5) – 8PM ET (Thursday), ESPN
Prediction: Navy 31, Temple 24
Marshall (6-2) @
Florida Atlantic (5-3) – 6PM ET (Friday), CBS Sports Network
Prediction: Florida Atlantic 34, Marshall 30
#23Memphis (7-1) @
Tulsa (2-7) – 8PM ET (Friday), ESPN2
Prediction: Memphis 48, Tulsa 27
UCLA (4-4) @
Utah (4-4) – 9:30PM ET (Friday), Fox Sports 1
Prediction: Utah 35, UCLA 24
Western Kentucky (5-3) @
Vanderbilt (3-5) – 12PM ET, ESPNU
Prediction: Vanderbilt 35, Western Kentucky 21
UMass (2-6) @ #16
Mississippi State (6-2) – 12PM ET, SEC Network
Prediction: Mississippi State 40, UMass 14
Florida (3-4) @
Missouri (3-5) – 12PM ET, ESPN2
Prediction: Florida 33, Missouri 23
Kansas State (4-4) @
Texas Tech (4-4) – 12PM ET, Fox Sports 1
Prediction: Kansas State 40, Texas Tech 31
Syracuse (4-4) @
Florida State (2-5) – 12:20PM ET, ACC Network
Prediction: Florida State 30, Syracuse 23
Georgia Tech (4-3) @
Virginia (5-3) – 3PM ET, ACC Network Extra
Prediction: Georgia Tech 33, Virginia 17
Maryland (4-4) @
Rutgers (3-5) – 3:30PM ET, Big Ten Network/Big Ten Network 2
Prediction: Maryland 27, Rutgers 20
Army (6-2) @
Air Force (4-4) – 3:30PM ET, CBS Sports Network
Prediction: Air Force 35, Army 31
Northwestern (5-3) @
Nebraska (4-4) – 3:30PM ET, Big Ten Network/Big Ten Network 2
Prediction: Northwestern 30, Nebraska 24
#15Iowa State (6-2) @
West Virginia (5-3) – 3:30PM ET, ESPN2
Prediction: West Virginia 33, Iowa State 30
Ole Miss (3-5) @
Kentucky (6-2) – 4PM ET, SEC Network
Prediction: Kentucky 31, Ole Miss 27
Colorado State (6-3) @
Wyoming (5-3) – 7PM ET, CBS Sports Network
Prediction: Colorado State 30, Wyoming 24
Southern Miss (5-3) @
Tennessee (3-5) – 7:30PM ET, SEC Network
Prediction: Tennessee 33, Southern Miss 20
Minnesota (4-4) @
Michigan (6-2) – 7:30PM ET, Fox
Prediction: Michigan 27, Minnesota 13
Colorado (5-4) @
Arizona State (4-4) – 9PM ET, Pac-12 Network
Prediction: Colorado 31, Arizona State 28